2024 Downtown Print runs?

[fenwaykid]

Do we have any idea the print run on Downtowns? I’m seeing them everywhere and in every case at shows. 10 year old kids have multiple. I know in prior years they were somewhat rare, but seems 2024 the printer was never unplugged.

[notfast]

They havent been rare for years.

[3124508 on COMC]

Proud to own 0 Downtowns and 0 Kabooms. They’re like modern Pokémon cards. All hype.

[livfreely]

Originally Posted by 3124508 on COMC

Proud to own 0 Downtowns and 0 Kabooms. They’re like modern Pokémon cards. All hype.

They are GREAT for trading, and moving up. I love buying the cheapest DT’s off of eBay and trading up with them.

[ddearing]

Below is copied and pasted from the optic thread:

Take this however you like, but in the last three months, there are over 500 Jayden Daniels (regular size) downtowns that have sold. There are also about 100 listed currently. They sell typically in the $1200-1400 range.

Then look at another "case hit" card like the Score A Step Ahead Jayden Daniels. There are 20 sold and about 10 listed. Nobody cares because it's Score and the prices represent that (sell for about $100-150), but I have no doubt that there are probably 20-50X more downtowns than there are some of the other rare "case hits" out there.

[sethc1020]

Like everything Panini, things that were once rare become less rare and less rare each year of production.

[ThatGuyPal]

Why are these questions always asked when it’s widely known that Panini doesnt release actual numbers on case-hits can’t wait to see same question about kabooms

[fenwaykid]

Originally Posted by ThatGuyPal

Why are these questions always asked when it’s widely known that Panini doesnt release actual numbers on case-hits can’t wait to see same question about kabooms

Pal, don’t be that guy.

[BlockShotStop]

You have to be a lot more specific, as there are many variations of Downtowns this year.

If you are talking the Optic base Downtown (not a Legends or Dual or numbered), just look at the 2023 PSA and SGC pop reports for an idea because this insert is one of the most often graded cards on the market.

When doing this exercise, always choose the most hyped rookie, so in this case look at C.J. Stroud. At PSA, there are 532 graded 2023 Donruss Optic base Downtowns, and another 15 at SGC. That's a total of 547. I assume at 60% grading rate for a card like this, so that would put the estimated print run around 1,000.

By the way, only caring about "rarity" of a card is reductive and, frankly, stupid. If I have a 1/1 of a player no one cares about, from a set that no one cares about, the card will not be very valuable. All you need is demand that outstrips supply. The demand for Downtowns and Kabooms is very, very high, at least right now. Might not always be that way, but these are some of the most highly sought after cards.

[kyle1707]

Watching 10 blasters open at local shop

2 uptown’s and a downtown

And people paying 250-1250 for them

It’s funny watching people do things in this hobby

[ddearing]

From a big picture and marketing perspective - Downtowns are what make Donruss and Optic sell. Not too long ago, Prizm was king, but that has definitely been replaced with Donruss and Optic because of the Downtowns. For the last handful of years, Panini has an incentive to keep the production at a level that allows them to maximize profit, while balancing that with keeping their most desirable cards perceivably scarce still, so as to "not kill the golden goose".

However, Panini at this point has no incentive at all to protect the "downtown" value/scarcity long term. 2024 and 2025 are their last hurrah and they will print to the moon, I am sure.

Also worth noting, 2025 Donruss is SCHEDULED to release July 31, 2025. That is many months earlier than we have ever seen it. Typically we haven't seen even the first RC's of players in their NFL Uniforms at that point. The NSCC promo cards have historically delivered that for us. I will be very surprised if they actually do release July 31, because again, the production amount is going to be tremendous, but they are working against a final release deadline for all licensed products.

As others have said, as long as there is enough demand, the prices will stay high. Having more out there does not indicate a coming crash in value. Also, after the 2025 products, there will be no more downtowns. Will that increase value of existing ones or will collectors move on to whatever Fanatics uses to replace them and demand for Downtowns will decrease? Who knows? What I can say with certainty is that production run of 2024 downtowns is significantly higher than 2023. I expect 2025 will be significantly higher than 2024 because it will make Panini more money in their final year of releases.

[weeds73]

Originally Posted by ddearing

From a big picture and marketing perspective - Downtowns are what make Donruss and Optic sell. Not too long ago, Prizm was king, but that has definitely been replaced with Donruss and Optic because of the Downtowns. For the last handful of years, Panini has an incentive to keep the production at a level that allows them to maximize profit, while balancing that with keeping their most desirable cards perceivably scarce still, so as to "not kill the golden goose".

However, Panini at this point has no incentive at all to protect the "downtown" value/scarcity long term. 2024 and 2025 are their last hurrah and they will print to the moon, I am sure.

Also worth noting, 2025 Donruss is SCHEDULED to release July 31, 2025. That is many months earlier than we have ever seen it. Typically we haven't seen even the first RC's of players in their NFL Uniforms at that point. The NSCC promo cards have historically delivered that for us. I will be very surprised if they actually do release July 31, because again, the production amount is going to be tremendous, but they are working against a final release deadline for all licensed products.

As others have said, as long as there is enough demand, the prices will stay high. Having more out there does not indicate a coming crash in value. Also, after the 2025 products, there will be no more downtowns. Will that increase value of existing ones or will collectors move on to whatever Fanatics uses to replace them and demand for Downtowns will decrease? Who knows? What I can say with certainty is that production run of 2024 downtowns is significantly higher than 2023. I expect 2025 will be significantly higher than 2025 because it will make Panini more money in their final year of releases.

Good take


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[notfast]

These are only popular because of repacks. They have very little staying power.

[Archangel1775]

Kids love them, demand is there, if you're an adult that can't deal with that, spend the money on a gold/10

[Ninotores]

I'm doubting the long term value once Fanatics takes over. Cards are very "what have you done for me lately?"

Downtowns will fade away as Panini loses the license. Great for now. If you hit them, sell or trade off asap and get the most you can for them. I sold a Caleb Williams Downtown and bought a Graded Joe Burrow RC on card Auto with the money. I have not had luck with the little of Optic I've found and opened. But if I do hit one, you best believe it will be sold and that money used for something I PC.

Downtowns are printed as much as the fed prints cash.

[notfast]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

Kids love them, demand is there, if you're an adult that can't deal with that, spend the money on a gold/10

They like them because they are easy to comp/flip and make them feel like they're doing something.

This won’t last forever. The market is 100% being pushed by repacks aka the buyers for repacks.

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by BlockShotStop

You have to be a lot more specific, as there are many variations of Downtowns this year.

If you are talking the Optic base Downtown (not a Legends or Dual or numbered), just look at the 2023 PSA and SGC pop reports for an idea because this insert is one of the most often graded cards on the market.

When doing this exercise, always choose the most hyped rookie, so in this case look at C.J. Stroud. At PSA, there are 532 graded 2023 Donruss Optic base Downtowns, and another 15 at SGC. That's a total of 547. I assume at 60% grading rate for a card like this, so that would put the estimated print run around 1,000.

By the way, only caring about "rarity" of a card is reductive and, frankly, stupid. If I have a 1/1 of a player no one cares about, from a set that no one cares about, the card will not be very valuable. All you need is demand that outstrips supply. The demand for Downtowns and Kabooms is very, very high, at least right now. Might not always be that way, but these are some of the most highly sought after cards.

Yup, I understand DT and Kaboom are printed to the moon but people like em so it has value. Gold optic of Kendre Miller RC? Yeah not so much. Just look at 86 fleer jordan pop count, it is still valued vwry highly despite the fact that there's thousand of them

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by notfast

They like them because they are easy to comp/flip and make them feel like they're doing something.

This won’t last forever. The market is 100% being pushed by repacks aka the buyers for repacks.

Kids are the next generations of collector, maybe you should learn what they like and not like to get a hint of what future looks like

[slyguy]

Originally Posted by notfast

They like them because they are easy to comp/flip and make them feel like they're doing something.

This won’t last forever. The market is 100% being pushed by repacks aka the buyers for repacks.

Kids basically like the gambling component.

They like breaks... repacks... chances to hit big cards.

They open packs or hit cards in breaks and immediately look up the card not to learn about the player - just to see what it'd sell for. They need money for the next break spot.

Their attention span is insanely low... can't even watch much YT... prefer YT shorts or TikTok or FB short vids. It's a new world.

...It's tough. I am moving largely out of cards and more to just FFB (best ball mostly) and sports betting (futures, playoffs, etc). It's hard to do much in cards as the boxes are so expensive and the sellers so hasty to flip everything. I will buy some undervalued players' high end stuff OBO from people who clearly hit them in a break and just want money quick.

[slyguy]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

Kids love them, demand is there, if you're an adult that can't deal with that, spend the money on a gold/10

Ok, then... better question:

Where the heck do kids get $1k for Daniels downtown cards?
(I think it was even $2k at one point? )
...and $500 or so for Nix, Maye, Penix, McCarthy, Caleb downtowns.
It's not one or two that sell each week. It's dozens... sometimes 100+.

This is not something that's hard to hit. It's not just from hobby boxes and only in breaks... they're potentially in every Walmart and Target fat pack or blaster box.

So, are adults mostly buying the downtowns... then immediately flipping them up in price?

[Seahawks fan]

It's the same thing with Pokemon cards. The pull rates may be hard but the cards aren't rare. When something isn't rare the next thing to do is grade them. Then eventually the popcounts climb so high that even high grades aren't rare. By that time it doesn't matter because they're onto the next set/fad/shiny hype. Rinse and repeat.

[slyguy]

Originally Posted by Seahawks fan

It's the same thing with Pokemon cards. The pull rates may be hard but the cards aren't rare. When something isn't rare the next thing to do is grade them. Then eventually the popcounts climb so high that even high grades aren't rare. By that time it doesn't matter because they're onto the next set/fad/shiny hype. Rinse and repeat.

Probably so. Good comparison.

Almost like stocks...
prices can disconnect from quality/earnings/PE for awhile - sometimes a long while - based on hype...
but eventually, the earnings/results (performance/wins for athlete) need to back up the price, or it falters.

[njsportscardguy]

Originally Posted by slyguy

Ok, then... better question:

Where the heck do kids get $1k for Daniels downtown cards?
(I think it was even $2k at one point? )
...and $500 or so for Nix, Maye, Penix, McCarthy, Caleb downtowns.
It's not one or two that sell each week. It's dozens... sometimes 100+.

This is not something that's hard to hit. It's not just from hobby boxes and only in breaks... they're potentially in every Walmart and Target fat pack or blaster box.

So, are adults mostly buying the downtowns... then immediately flipping them up in price?

"Be careful"...with properly-utilized grammar, punctuation, etc., here on the BO boards! ESPECIALLY,..."be careful" when implementing/utilizing embolden, italicized, and underline words or characters, too! That happens to REALLY get the panties-in-a-twist, for some 'o those GOOFBALLS!