Aaron Judge

[JohnnyHatesJazz]

Dudes a yankee. His prices are low. Great investment for the long term if he keeps this up and stays healthy.

[49ersSF]

Originally Posted by Absknicks

Judge has multiple seasons of a 200+ wRC+. Trout has never come close to putting up one. Judge's peak has already exceeded any level Mike Trout ever reached.

Easily exceeded Trout.

Just take a look at Judge's MVP seasons vs. Trout.

2017* .284 BA.422 OBA .627 SLG 1.049 OPS 128 runs 52 HR 114 RBI

(Broke rookie record for most home runs in a single season)

2022 .311 BA .425 OBA .686 SLG 1.111 OPS 133 runs 62 HR 131 RBI

(Broke major league record for home runs(non steroids) and broke the single season AL record for home runs in a season)

2024 .322 BA .458 OBA .701 SLG 1.159 OPS 122 runs 58 HR 144 RBI

*2nd in MVP vote. Should have won it.

Mike Trout

2014 .287 BA .377 OBA . 561 SLG .939 OPS 115 runs 36 HR 111 RBI

2016 .315 BA .441 OBA .551 SLG .991 OPS 123 runs 29 HR 100 RBI

2019 .291 BA .431 OBA .645 SLG 1.083 OPS 110 runs 45 HR 104 RBI

Trout's OBA is generally his strongest stat due to his high walk frequency. However, these MVP seasons easily compare more closely to Dale Murphy's rather than Aaron Judge's extraordinary numbers.

[ThoseBackPages]

and the Trout haters are back! haha

[Americards]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

and the Trout haters are back! haha

welcome back

[seanrs1]

I am not a Trout hater. Clearly being the back player for a decade and 3 MVPs with 80+ WAR should firmly put you in the HOF. I also know that Trout has quite the hobby following, and his RC card prices reflect that. I also think that Trout will end up with a higher career WAR than Judge (mainly due to playing more career games).

My question is what would it take for the hobby to value Judge over Trout? I think winning a 3rd MVP will go a long way....as well as post season success.

The other question is what would that type of hobby love do for Judge's cards?

[JRX]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

I am not a Trout hater. Clearly being the back player for a decade and 3 MVPs with 80+ WAR should firmly put you in the HOF. I also know that Trout has quite the hobby following, and his RC card prices reflect that. I also think that Trout will end up with a higher career WAR than Judge (mainly due to playing more career games).

My question is what would it take for the hobby to value Judge over Trout? I think winning a 3rd MVP will go a long way....as well as post season success.

The other question is what would that type of hobby love do for Judge's cards?

He needs to catch the pop up. Regardless of what he does in the reg season, that's what he will be know for until he wins.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

I am not a Trout hater. Clearly being the back player for a decade and 3 MVPs with 80+ WAR should firmly put you in the HOF. I also know that Trout has quite the hobby following, and his RC card prices reflect that. I also think that Trout will end up with a higher career WAR than Judge (mainly due to playing more career games).

My question is what would it take for the hobby to value Judge over Trout? I think winning a 3rd MVP will go a long way....as well as post season success.

The other question is what would that type of hobby love do for Judge's cards?

he needs to have less cards

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

he needs to have less cards

Does he? He has less cards than Ohtani. And besides you are missing my point. I am saying what if Judge wins another MVP and his demand goes through the roof and he over takes Trout in the hobby (I don't think Judge will ever catch Ohtani in hobby power).

I am predicting this will actually happen. I just don't know what this means for his cards. Will they go up slightly...or a lot?

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Does he? He has less cards than Ohtani. And besides you are missing my point. I am saying what if Judge wins another MVP and his demand goes through the roof and he over takes Trout in the hobby (I don't think Judge will ever catch Ohtani in hobby power).

I am predicting this will actually happen. I just don't know what this means for his cards. Will they go up slightly...or a lot?

not fair to compare him (or anyone really) to Ohtani.

you asked what it will take for Judges cards (im guessing you are talking about his 2017 run of the mill cards) to "increase" in value.

im saying there are a LOT of them both in number and in quantity.

its not helping him any that his First Topps card looks like crap besides it being in every factory set.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

not fair to compare him (or anyone really) to Ohtani.

you asked what it will take for Judges cards (im guessing you are talking about his 2017 run of the mill cards) to "increase" in value.

im saying there are a LOT of them both in number and in quantity.

its not helping him any that his First Topps card looks like crap besides it being in every factory set.

I hear what you are saying...but lets not just focus on his base RC. I am thinking more about his rainbow foil, numbered cards, refractors, SP, SSPs etc. I don't have much skin in the game as I only have a few Judge cards, and I am not actively buying any either. I am just trying to think about this logically.

I know you collect Judge and you don't really care if his cards go up (or down). And I don't have enough skin in the game either. I am just posing the question to others to get their thoughts. And my thought is he will over take Trout with collectors and some point and his cards will go up. Which ones and how much...I can only guess.

[larry25]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

I hear what you are saying...but lets not just focus on his base RC. I am thinking more about his rainbow foil, numbered cards, refractors, SP, SSPs etc. I don't have much skin in the game as I only have a few Judge cards, and I am not actively buying any either. I am just trying to think about this logically.

I know you collect Judge and you don't really care if his cards go up (or down). And I don't have enough skin in the game either. I am just posing the question to others to get their thoughts. And my thought is he will over take Trout with collectors and some point and his cards will go up. Which ones and how much...I can only guess.

Trout's prices were artificially inflated for years when Vegas Dave bought up all the Oranges and Golds and fixed the prices at $200K. So many of those staggering Orange and Gold sales prices were contrived, just selling cards back and forth between different accounts. This of course then drove up the rest of his cards. Anyone who bought into Trout at those inflated prices and is still holding is sadly holding on to a pipe dream and a scam.

Goldin sold a Judge Orange PSA 10 for $80,000 a few weeks ago, which was compelling. There's a BGS 10 in the Fanatics Premier right now, but who knows how that compares to PSA 10 these days. I think I'd prefer the PSA 10, but I'd be thrilled to have either! Still a far cry from $200,000 like Trout and Ohtani Oranges, but Judge will likely get there one day. $200,000 is also the number for Jordan rookie PSA 10s as well as some other key cards in the hobby, and Judge's better color cards will be key cards sooner than later.

I don't agree that he needs to win a ring to cement his legacy. If he gets another MVP or two (technically has three already) or if he hits 60+ again or even 70, or if he wins the Triple Crown, there won't be any question that he's the best hitter since Barry Bonds. We're barely 20 games into the season, but his numbers are back to looking like video games, and except for his cold April last year and for that time he ran over the wall in LA the year before, he's been putting up those same bold, italicized numbers for 4 straight years now. Dude is an absolute freak. All the players and coaches and umpires know it, but a good chunk of the hobby is still skeptical.

Now, who wants to sell me an orange for $25,000!?

[Stifle]

Originally Posted by larry25

Trout's prices were artificially inflated for years when Vegas Dave bought up all the Oranges and Golds and fixed the prices at $200K. So many of those staggering Orange and Gold sales prices were contrived, just selling cards back and forth between different accounts. This of course then drove up the rest of his cards. Anyone who bought into Trout at those inflated prices and is still holding is sadly holding on to a pipe dream and a scam.

Goldin sold a Judge Orange PSA 10 for $80,000 a few weeks ago, which was compelling. There's a BGS 10 in the Fanatics Premier right now, but who knows how that compares to PSA 10 these days. I think I'd prefer the PSA 10, but I'd be thrilled to have either! Still a far cry from $200,000 like Trout and Ohtani Oranges, but Judge will likely get there one day. $200,000 is also the number for Jordan rookie PSA 10s as well as some other key cards in the hobby, and Judge's better color cards will be key cards sooner than later.

I don't agree that he needs to win a ring to cement his legacy. If he gets another MVP or two (technically has three already) or if he hits 60+ again or even 70, or if he wins the Triple Crown, there won't be any question that he's the best hitter since Barry Bonds. We're barely 20 games into the season, but his numbers are back to looking like video games, and except for his cold April last year and for that time he ran over the wall in LA the year before, he's been putting up those same bold, italicized numbers for 4 straight years now. Dude is an absolute freak. All the players and coaches and umpires know it, but a good chunk of the hobby is still skeptical.

Now, who wants to sell me an orange for $25,000!?

He has had 3 top notch seasons with this season trending as the fourth. Pujols and Miggy by the age of 33 had done so much more because of consistency. Judge has a great shot at being the third best hitter in the Y2K era but when it comes to regular & post season it’s not even close. Both Albert & Miggy tripled Judges WPA in the playoffs and to show how far back Aaron is from those two isn’t close but vs Trout is a good comparison.

The rule changes in 23 to help offenses have really helped Judge with the infield shift. These changes came at the end of Pujols and Cabrera’s careers. They had to deal with the ever increasing shifts from 2010-2022.

[larry25]

Originally Posted by Stifle

He has had 3 top notch seasons with this season trending as the fourth. Pujols and Miggy by the age of 33 had done so much more because of consistency. Judge has a great shot at being the third best hitter in the Y2K era but when it comes to regular & post season it’s not even close. Both Albert & Miggy tripled Judges WPA in the playoffs and to show how far back Aaron is from those two isn’t close but vs Trout is a good comparison.

To call those 3 seasons top notch is understated. They were 3 of the best seasons we've seen in 50 years, with legitimate comparisons to not only Barry Bonds but also Babe Ruth.

Pujols in his prime was not half the athlete Judge is, and he was relatively washed up by his age 31 or 32 season.

Miggy wasn't really a superfreak athlete either, and his best season wasn't even as good as Judge's rookie season. Judge's best seasons (2022 and 2024) blow Miggy's best seasons away.

Comparing Judge to either player really says a lot. I love all three players! If Judge plays as long as Pujols (42) or Cabrera (40), we'll hopefully see some things we can't even imagine at this point. Time will tell.

[ThoseBackPages]

Judge will be 33 this month. if he DOESNT play another 10 years it will be disappointing

around the interwebs there still appears to be a lot of "yankees hate".

ive posted about how people should collect Judge.... Good fella, hits bombs, Yankees Captain, will play his entire career with them so ALL of his MLB cards will show him on the yankees

doesnt matter.... people are still butthurt (particularly red sox fans) that he is "A YANKEE!" and "I WILL NEVER HAVE YANKEES IN MY COLLECTION!" and other lame statements like that

[Stifle]

Originally Posted by larry25

To call those 3 seasons top notch is understated. They were 3 of the best seasons we've seen in 50 years, with legitimate comparisons to not only Barry Bonds but also Babe Ruth.

Pujols in his prime was not half the athlete Judge is, and he was relatively washed up by his age 31 or 32 season.

Miggy wasn't really a superfreak athlete either, and his best season wasn't even as good as Judge's rookie season. Judge's best seasons (2022 and 2024) blow Miggy's best seasons away.

Comparing Judge to either player really says a lot. I love all three players! If Judge plays as long as Pujols (42) or Cabrera (40), we'll hopefully see some things we can't even imagine at this point. Time will tell.

I can remember more times than you would want where Judge would hit into the shift. How many times did Judge have to face a fresh arm in the pen just after having a fresh arm came in before the previous batter ? Judge wasn’t batting .321 with roughly 9,000 Plate Appearances like Pujols & Miggy. At 33 they had roughly 2,400-2,550 hits. 445-500+ HR’s, they were consistently driving in over 100 runs a season while scoring a 100 runs while not disappearing in the playoffs. Judge needs to be better than irrelevant in the playoffs.

Hal Newhouser won 2 MVP’s and finished 2nd as a pitcher but we think of guys who put together a dozen impact seasons. Judge is great but let’s understand that the last 3 seasons had rule changes to help the offense, which it significantly has. If Albert and Miggy had the same ballpark with these new rules in their prime.

[larry25]

Originally Posted by Stifle

I can remember more times than you would want where Judge would hit into the shift. How many times did Judge have to face a fresh arm in the pen just after having a fresh arm came in before the previous batter ? Judge wasn’t batting .321 with roughly 9,000 Plate Appearances like Pujols & Miggy. At 33 they had roughly 2,400-2,550 hits. 445-500+ HR’s, they were consistently driving in over 100 runs a season while scoring a 100 runs while not disappearing in the playoffs. Judge needs to be better than irrelevant in the playoffs.

Hal Newhouser won 2 MVP’s and finished 2nd as a pitcher but we think of guys who put together a dozen impact seasons. Judge is great but let’s understand that the last 3 seasons had rule changes to help the offense, which it significantly has. If Albert and Miggy had the same ballpark with these new rules in their prime.

I double dog dare you to say that about Shohei and challenge the legitimacy of his 50-50 season.

Judge is not a pull hitter, sorry. Maybe originally, yeah, but he sprays the ball as well as anyone. His HR spray chart looks like a perfect firework.

While your point about the shift has some merit, what you are completely ignoring is the fact that Judge is doing his thing in a period of absolute pitching dominance.

The league batting averages in the 2000s and 2010s were as high as .270 and dropped into the .250s. In the 2020s, they have mostly been .240s. In the AL last year I think it was closer to .230.

It simply wasn't as hard to be a contact hitter in the 2000s and 2010s, period, no question about it.

And for judge to do his thing with both contact, OBP, AND power... I'll take him in his prime over either of those guys, over anyone other than Barry.

[larry25]

PS: Comparing Judge to Hal Newhouser is pretty rich! Guy was untouchable for 2 or 3 years, sure, but most of the best hitters were off fighting in WWII.

[jdandns]

Cabrera, Pujols, Ohtani = World Champions
Judge, Bonds = Not World Champions

Judge's numbers ultimately mean nothing unless he can escape the non-winner list he's currently on with the likes of Barry Bonds.

[GabrielCards]

The arguments of Judge vs. Trout don't mean much. People have knocked Judge for starting his career a bit late and having some injury history. Then you hear that "big guys start to decline early". He seems to be showing now that these analyses are nonsense. So if you believe that he will stay in this ridculous prime for a few more years and play until 40ish then he is a great buy now - perhaps the best of current players in the hobby. He has a lot of milestones that he can still get to and create much more buzz.

[Stifle]

Originally Posted by larry25

I double dog dare you to say that about Shohei and challenge the legitimacy of his 50-50 season.

Judge is not a pull hitter, sorry. Maybe originally, yeah, but he sprays the ball as well as anyone. His HR spray chart looks like a perfect firework.

While your point about the shift has some merit, what you are completely ignoring is the fact that Judge is doing his thing in a period of absolute pitching dominance.

The league batting averages in the 2000s and 2010s were as high as .270 and dropped into the .250s. In the 2020s, they have mostly been .240s. In the AL last year I think it was closer to .230.

It simply wasn't as hard to be a contact hitter in the 2000s and 2010s, period, no question about it.

And for judge to do his thing with both contact, OBP, AND power... I'll take him in his prime over either of those guys, over anyone other than Barry.

If you want to discuss dominance, pitchers were dominating the hitters so badly in RISP & 2 out RISP opportunities that the Commissioner was forced to change the rules. Pujols was one of the few elite hitters that peaked and Miggy put up 2 out RISP numbers from 2011-14 that even Mantle couldn’t match. These two were superior when the rest of the league struggled so badly by the use of pitching and the relieving of pitchers. These two were triple crown threats for a decade who performed injured and still produced.

Judge & Ohtani are great players but Pujols & Miggy put up high end run production percentages where they were the bell cows for the team to produce. Since the DH was implemented Cabrera has the highest percentage in a season at .281% and Pujols being on a non DH Cardinals team where the %’s are higher do to pitchers having next to no production put up big numbers. The last time a American League player had a higher run production % was Ted Williams in 1949. These guys carried their teams for years.

24 - JUDGE .2751%
24 - WITT .2748%
12 - MIGGY .2809%
16 - TROUT .2705%
24 - OHTANI .2494%

I don’t believe it’s a mistake seeing 2 of the highest Run Production Percentages over the past 75 years in the AL occur in the same season. The last time a player with a higher Run Production % to reach the WS was Ruth, Cobb & H. Wagner.

[Akphillips86]

When we are looking back at this era of the MLB, Judge and Ohtani are going to be the giants that will stand out in the hobby. There will be other tiers of guys that are still going to be in demand (especially significant cards of them), but these guys are so otherworldly they will be impossible to forget.

A lot of FANTASTIC players in the 90’s for example are virtually forgotten by the hobby at large. Think how much hobby interest gets funneled up to Griffey in comparison to his peers. Granted steroids destroyed other potential hobby favorites, but even a guy like Frank Thomas you would think would garner a bit more lasting hobby attention.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Mister2Bits]

Originally Posted by jdandns

Cabrera, Pujols, Ohtani = World Champions
Judge, Bonds = Not World Champions

Judge's numbers ultimately mean nothing unless he can escape the non-winner list he's currently on with the likes of Barry Bonds.

This is false.

Plenty of amazing players haven't even played in a World Series let alone won a championship. Individual achievements are a big deal in baseball.

Championships need an entire team. You can be the most amazing player in a generation (see the Angels with Ohtani & Trout) but you need to have an entire team to win a championship.

I love Cabrera but just because he has a ring doesn't make him a better player than those who dont.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Akphillips86

When we are looking back at this era of the MLB, Judge and Ohtani are going to be the giants that will stand out in the hobby. There will be other tiers of guys that are still going to be in demand (especially significant cards of them), but these guys are so otherworldly they will be impossible to forget.

A lot of FANTASTIC players in the 90’s for example are virtually forgotten by the hobby at large. Think how much hobby interest gets funneled up to Griffey in comparison to his peers. Granted steroids destroyed other potential hobby favorites, but even a guy like Frank Thomas you would think would garner a bit more lasting hobby attention.

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

and the Trout haters are back! haha

It's not Trout hate. The dude was the king for nearly a decade but his primetime appears to be over. It's really "Trout disappointment" watching a player who was heading toward legendary career numbers simply fall apart.

The 90s comment was exactly my thought. There's usually only a handful of players a decade that have big hobby staying power and it can be a big spread between those that do. Nobody touches Griffey. Thomas had a hell of a career but is distant second fiddle. I seems like the hobby has already started relegating Trout to Frank Thomas type status. Both have no shortage of collectors, but some Trout insert or parallel is not stopping people in their tracks like an equivalent Ohtani or Judge will.

A legit chance Judge gets to 400 HRs next year if he stays on the field. That would get some attention beyond whatever accolades he earns this year. It looks like Trout is extremely likely to beat him to the milestone, perhaps in the next few months, but he got a big head start. From a card perspective, Judge has the most upside. Yankees fans alone, plus more likely to have postseason appearances (and maybe he'll finally get hot in one). Already seeing the market move. A few years ago, it was hard to find any Trout stuff in the bargain bin while there was no shortage of it for Judge. Today, Trout cards frequently reside in the bargain bin while discounted Judge are getting hard to find. Absolute worst case for Judge would be a Don Mattingly scenario where his power rapidly falls off, like starting today, yet would still be the face of an 8 year stretch like Trout was.

[ThoseBackPages]

"The dude was the king for nearly a decade but his primetime appears to be over. "

Yes he was, and yes it is over now.
but there are folks here that werent here for it or have forgotten what he did for the hobby.

people can talk all they want about the on field stuff, but this is about the hobby.

have to wonder if brand new Bowman would be $100 a pack or whatever silly number it is now if not for Trout.

'HE COULD BE THE NEXT TROUT AFTERALL!"

[Bosoxfan5990]

Is 7 years nearly a decade?