What’s it going to take to revitalize the NBA card hobby?

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

The game is already suffering enough. A big change needs to be made. The NBA is bigger than one player. When the network headlines are dominated by off-the court drama instead of say something like a 60 point Triple Double, its time for change.

No doubt LeBron does some great things on the court at 40 years old. But like I said, its time to hang them up and let the young guns take the stage. Yes, he's scored a lot of points, fantastic but what was the big headline this year? The Lakers acquiring Luka, the future franchise and many would argue is the franchise player right now. I'm in Southern California, the general Lakers fan I'm around dislike that he lays on the court for a long period of time after getting knocked over/falling down. Between that, his previous demanding nature and his son's drama, it's not representative of Lakers basketball. The executives knew that and that's why they didn't "clear it with LeBron" to get Luka. I'm not blind to the algorithm and I can still see what happens on the court. Of course, the Lakers have a chance this year especially with Luka and people want to see it. You'd be nuts as a fan or investor not to but its gonna take the Luka show to get there.

But yeah, I'm a bit bias as a Warriors fan but that doesn't mean I'm wrong!

agree to disagree.


When Lebron leaves, a massive void will exist in the NBA, and for the immediate future, there is no clear cut player to carry that void.

It's hard to replace a player who has basically been the face of the NBA for his entire career.


Maybe I'm wrong and someone will do that but who?

Antman: bad reputation and a bit of a hot head
Ja:not even going there
Wemby: good guy, but currently out, has potential
Tatum: quietly having a good year, but still not there
Jokic: amazing player, but pretty faceless outside the NBA
SGA: probably this year's MVP but see above with Jokic
Luka: probably has the best chance out of everyone.

[Scottish Punk]

Doesn't that Fizer speaks more to that era of collector being a set collector. Those bids are from people completing the refractor set. Set collecting in the modern market feels really dead.

[coltsnsox07]

Cooper Flagg in a Wizards or Jazz uniform probably isn't the answer.

[Nomad]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

The plumbing is structurally broken since 2020 for NBA cards, both modern and new. Yield chasing institutional money is the cause. This is the reality of many markets post 2020, for better or for worse.

Honestly if Wemby can't do it, I don't see anythig that can (short of new MJ/Kobe cards being produced...

Could your explain what you mean by "Yield chasing institutional money is the cause." Is there like a syndicate manipulating price on select players?

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by Nomad

Could your explain what you mean by "Yield chasing institutional money is the cause." Is there like a syndicate manipulating price on select players?

I would zoom out of focusing on players like Nesmith and look at who is running the hobby, making cards, that kinda thing

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by Scottish Punk

Doesn't that Fizer speaks more to that era of collector being a set collector. Those bids are from people completing the refractor set. Set collecting in the modern market feels really dead.

That's kinda my point. Refractors "were" interesting. They are not today, for many reasons listed previously, one being, there are 1000000000000000000000000 different variations printed in quantities of 100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
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[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

That's kinda my point. Refractors "were" interesting. They are not today, for many reasons listed previously, one being, there are 1000000000000000000000000 different variations printed in quantities of 100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
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But just wait for the 2026-27 topps chrome Luka Laker second year ROOKIE refractor - when he wins a ring after Bron retires, this card will be yuge.

[Scottish Punk]

Oh for sure, I swear every week I see a new select or prizm parallel. It is blue parallel, no a blue wave, no a blue shimmer, or is it a blue disco shimmer? Or Target exclusive blue pulsar? We have lost containment on parallels.

[Nomad]

Just need more rainbow collectors. Snap.

[codered]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

agree to disagree.


When Lebron leaves, a massive void will exist in the NBA, and for the immediate future, there is no clear cut player to carry that void.

It's hard to replace a player who has basically been the face of the NBA for his entire career.


Maybe I'm wrong and someone will do that but who?

Antman: bad reputation and a bit of a hot head
Ja:not even going there
Wemby: good guy, but currently out, has potential
Tatum: quietly having a good year, but still not there
Jokic: amazing player, but pretty faceless outside the NBA
SGA: probably this year's MVP but see above with Jokic
Luka: probably has the best chance out of everyone.

People said the same thing when jordan retired and kobe stepped up and lebron came by a few years later. 6-7 years ago people though we would see the end of mega star face of the league qb when brady and rodgers retired and along came Mahomes and jackson/allen to a lesser extent. Someone will come along

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by codered

People said the same thing when jordan retired and kobe stepped up and lebron came by a few years later. 6-7 years ago people though we would see the end of mega star face of the league qb when brady and rodgers retired and along came Mahomes and jackson/allen to a lesser extent. Someone will come along

Hopefully, someone will come along. We will see.


According to the doomsayers, the NBA is on it's last legs, but this Clippers-Warriors game has been absolutely fantastic.

[fabiani12333]

I'm going to need an explanation for why Luka winning a title this year is suddenly going to revitalize the basketball card market. He's sharing the floor with LeBron, which means any title is likely to be a shared accomplishment between the two. So maybe what you really meant by Luka winning a title is the Lakers winning one. I could definitely see a Lakers title giving a temporary bump to the market -- nothing sustainable, though.

I have to think a Luka/Lakers title means an opportunity for pre-existing Luka bag holders to sell their cards off -- they must have been blind-sided by his trade earlier this year and are hoping for a way to reduce their losses.

[mfw13]

It's funny how everyone is talking about specific players while ignoring the elephant in the room.....i.e. wax prices.

As long as wax prices are ridiculously high, most collectors will continue to largely ignore basketball products. Sure, they'll buy singles of their favorite players/teams here and there, but actual enthusiasm for product releases will continue to be close to non-existent.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

I'm going to need an explanation for why Luka winning a title this year is suddenly going to revitalize the basketball card market. He's sharing the floor with LeBron, which means any title is likely to be a shared accomplishment between the two. So maybe what you really meant by Luka winning a title is the Lakers winning one. I could definitely see a Lakers title giving a temporary bump to the market -- nothing sustainable, though.

I have to think a Luka/Lakers title means an opportunity for pre-existing Luka bag holders to sell their cards off -- they must have been blind-sided by his trade earlier this year and are hoping for a way to reduce their losses.

I predict Luka will win his first title after Bron leaves LA.

[Nomad]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

I would zoom out of focusing on players like Nesmith and look at who is running the hobby, making cards, that kinda thing

But actually, with any theorem that transcends social truth cycles, every element of the ecosystem should in some way reflect the hypothesis. Here you are saying that those issues that rise in value are somehow rigged. The reason why that influencer is talking about a certain player as prospect worth a flyer is not because he is into the game, but because he has amassed significant stock in that issue. Lonzo, or Bane, or Trae, or whoever.

Noting just how little traction the players who fans actually come to see and impact games move needles, and how they were hidden on highlight reels for years, one is reminded of the days of the Archies and Milli Vanilli. Days of total market manipulation and synthesized studio choices.


Transcends vanilli. Grass-fed coed influences NBA fashion at grass its roots. Hobby quakes.

[Torro]

Originally Posted by volblorx8634

I agree. Great time to be a collector. In the last couple weeks I've added a PC gold /10 for $2.25 and a first ballot HOFer parallel /15 for a rainbow for $19.50. Both shipped including tax. That's wild and the great part of the oversaturation/overproduction/hyping/flipping/investment culture of basketball cards now. You can get cards you like for almost nothing, like you said not a bad thing.

I also agree, its definitely not a bad thing for collectors. You can just ignore the stuff you dont like, and just pick out what you like, you dont need to collect everything, but at least you have more options to pick out and collect what you like.

100 different parallels is better than 100x more print run for the base cards(like there was in 90s), I dont see how it can be a bad thing from the collecting perspective

[Torro]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

agree to disagree.


When Lebron leaves, a massive void will exist in the NBA, and for the immediate future, there is no clear cut player to carry that void.

It's hard to replace a player who has basically been the face of the NBA for his entire career.


Maybe I'm wrong and someone will do that but who?

Antman: bad reputation and a bit of a hot head
Ja:not even going there
Wemby: good guy, but currently out, has potential
Tatum: quietly having a good year, but still not there
Jokic: amazing player, but pretty faceless outside the NBA
SGA: probably this year's MVP but see above with Jokic
Luka: probably has the best chance out of everyone.

Tatum and Luka have the best chance as of right now, dont even know who could be the 3rd guy. At some point it was Ant but not sure about him, he just seems to much of a teenager (just like Ja). Wemby seems a like great guy and might be good fit. SGA just dont have the aura / charisma / x factor to stand out, might change in the future. Jokic is just not the typical sportsman the fans idolise, he just too ..different, while really good in basketball

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Torro

Tatum and Luka have the best chance as of right now, dont even know who could be the 3rd guy. At some point it was Ant but not sure about him, he just seems to much of a teenager (just like Ja). Wemby seems a like great guy and might be good fit. SGA just dont have the aura / charisma / x factor to stand out, might change in the future. Jokic is just not the typical sportsman the fans idolise, he just too ..different, while really good in basketball

Tatum has ZERO chance. Outside of the Northeast, people hate Boston. Even if he wasn’t the most cringe player in the NBA, he couldn’t overcome that. He’ll always been a disliked 1a/1b.

Luka doesn’t dunk. He’s got no chance either.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

agree to disagree.


When Lebron leaves, a massive void will exist in the NBA, and for the immediate future, there is no clear cut player to carry that void.

It's hard to replace a player who has basically been the face of the NBA for his entire career.


Maybe I'm wrong and someone will do that but who?

Antman: bad reputation and a bit of a hot head
Ja:not even going there
Wemby: good guy, but currently out, has potential
Tatum: quietly having a good year, but still not there
Jokic: amazing player, but pretty faceless outside the NBA
SGA: probably this year's MVP but see above with Jokic
Luka: probably has the best chance out of everyone.

The NBA did fine when Jordan retired from the Bulls. Kobe took that mantle and won multiple championships. Its hard to say LeBron was the "Face of the NBA" while Kobe and Shaq/Gasol were winning. Case in point, the well documented Kobe and Redeem Team. That's not LeBron's fault, he was young and people tried real hard but it just wasn't his time yet. Either way, the man is 40, he's got to hang it up at some point. Its up to the NBA, Disney, ESPN and the powers that be to anoint the next "Face of the NBA". That is more than likely Luka.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Tatum has ZERO chance. Outside of the Northeast, people hate Boston. Even if he wasn’t the most cringe player in the NBA, he couldn’t overcome that. He’ll always been a disliked 1a/1b.

Luka doesn’t dunk. He’s got no chance either.

Don't underestimate the power of the Lakers and winning.

[Akphillips86]

I don’t know if it’s going to be one guy like we have been accustomed to. I don’t see anyone in the mold of MJ/Kobe/LeBron. It is what it is.

Luka is the most obvious standard bearer and being in LA helps, but I think people are also underestimating SGA’s ability to shine. The narrative could sour on Luka if he doesn’t start delivering hardware quickly and SGA does. Especially if the Thunder are the obstacle that keeps LA out of the Finals. I think SGA’s rise took many people (myself included) off guard. I’m not saying SGA is going to get catapulted into the same atmosphere as the triumvirate mentioned above (because that’s simply not in the cards), but I definitely wouldn’t write him off as a bona fide superstar. If he wins a few scoring titles and makes some Championship runs, the “powers that be” won’t hesitate to bring ample attention his way.

Tatum is very skilled, but his game/persona doesn’t seem to translate into likability/fandom much like Jokic. Giannis is going to be relevant for a few more years, but being in Milwaukee doesn’t help. Now, Wemby with health is definitely intriguing. He’s also a different mold so he’s not going to continually be stacked up against MJ because he’s a completely new kind of unicorn.


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[Torro]

Originally Posted by Akphillips86

I don’t know if it’s going to be one guy like we have been accustomed to. I don’t see anyone in the mold of MJ/Kobe/LeBron. It is what it is.

Luka is the most obvious standard bearer and being in LA helps, but I think people are also underestimating SGA’s ability to shine. The narrative could sour on Luka if he doesn’t start delivering hardware quickly and SGA does. Especially if the Thunder are the obstacle that keeps LA out of the Finals. I think SGA’s rise took many people (myself included) off guard. I’m not saying SGA is going to get catapulted into the same atmosphere as the triumvirate mentioned above (because that’s simply not in the cards), but I definitely wouldn’t write him off as a bona fide superstar. If he wins a few scoring titles and makes some Championship runs, the “powers that be” won’t hesitate to bring ample attention his way.

SGA and OKC were top1 seed also last year, but I guess play off basketball is different, they need to prove that they can get to the conference finals and be strong competition to whoever they face there. But even if they make it to the finals and lose, he is going to be in the same bucket as Tatum and Celtics were after losing to GSW in 2022, so making it far but not winning is likely not going to be enough also.. Might be even worst, as several years as top1 seed and SGA scoring champ + MVP = bigger expectations

[Akphillips86]

Originally Posted by Torro

SGA and OKC were top1 seed also last year, but I guess play off basketball is different, they need to prove that they can get to the conference finals and be strong competition to whoever they face there. But even if they make it to the finals and lose, he is going to be in the same bucket as Tatum and Celtics were after losing to GSW in 2022, so making it far but not winning is likely not going to be enough also.. Might be even worst, as several years as top1 seed and SGA scoring champ + MVP = bigger expectations

Playoffs are certainly a beast and nothing is guaranteed. I think SGA’s leading a young squad that’s likely going to be elite for some years to come so I like his chances to capitalize. If Luka/LeBron were to advance to the Finals instead this year, it would certainly be a feather in Luka’s cap but you still have the narrative of doing it alongside LBJ. If SGA advances, he’s going to get all the glory (despite having an admittedly deep and well rounded roster). Now, he still has to take out likely the Cavs or Celtics in the East, but taking out Luka with LeBron would be a blow to the rise of the Luka narrative.

If the Celtics can make it past the Cavs in the East and manage to pull out another title, Tatum’s star power will undoubtedly get a big bump and people may begrudgingly have to give him some more credit.

With almost any outcome, it seems more like a dogfight for becoming the NBA’s next “anointed one” rather than it being a foregone conclusion. I don’t know that anyone is going to be standing atop the mountain alone for the next few years.


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[spurs50fan]

Originally Posted by mfw13

It's funny how everyone is talking about specific players while ignoring the elephant in the room.....i.e. wax prices.

As long as wax prices are ridiculously high, most collectors will continue to largely ignore basketball products. Sure, they'll buy singles of their favorite players/teams here and there, but actual enthusiasm for product releases will continue to be close to non-existent.

It's dominated by investors and the attention has turned more to investments. So they drive the narrative and it's who can make them money. And, for basketball, it's awfully specific. A few players really do determine the health as a whole. Almost seem like it's horse racing at times. That's simply not sustainable.

But you're right, the wax prices are the main issue driving away collectors. Just not investors. Once the balance of fun and profit tilted, there was no turning back. It has to crash in order to be rebuilt. I believe collectors are waiting in the wings but it's like running the adults away from a park in order to clean up the bottles, cans & debris to be able to restore it to what it used to be.

[blackbears86]

The rookie classes from the last few years certainly have not helped cards either.

Wemby was red hot last year and that has obviously cooled off.


This year's class is not helping the situation. Years ago, I would have been all over prizm on the retail level. This year? Nope.