The Official Stock Market Thread

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by cms11

Yay, more fun!!!

Volatility begets opportunity.

[babyfaceposey]

I am loving this.

[patchgenie]

Originally Posted by babyfaceposey

I am loving this.

may not be much left in 20 days if it continues at this pace

[KhalDrogo]

It’s so easy to see which “experts” were very offsides headed into Wednesday night. These guys are abandoning all rational thought and exposing themselves as only being able to succeed in uber bull markets.

[ajlaxmn]

Bought NVDA at $95. Will ad did it keeps going down. Think I might add some SMCI if it gets to $25.


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[cms11]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Volatility begets opportunity.

Then you must love that Dow futures opened 1,500 down.

[KhalDrogo]

This is getting spicy. Nothing has felt like capitulation yet, but maybe we get it tomorrow.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by cms11

Then you must love that Dow futures opened 1,500 down.

Yes. Because I have plenty of cash to play with, and I’m not retiring tomorrow. Should be adding to all my positions pre-market if this holds.

[finfangfan]

Dang… looks like the dip keeps on dipping. https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/06/busin...ffs/index.html

This is a weird one. Nothing like 2008. Totally self inflicted and just goofy. I’m going to keep buying NVDA and hope future FFF is happy.

[Stifle]

Not sure if the stock market will hurt any current or ex professional sports team owners. Don Trump did own the New Jersey Generals and I’m not sure he owns any rights at this time. Mark Cuban who isn’t well liked by the fore mentioned owner sold his Dallas Mavericks team to M. Adelson who had gifted the original NJ Generals owner over a half billion dollars in campaign contributions. When it looks like they hate one another they profit together.

Life is like stock and elites. You have good stock and bad stock but the elite stocks all stick together to separate the masses for more control. My take on where these tariffs are going, separating the masses even more.

[KhalDrogo]

It’s hilarious to watch all these money managers melt down. This will end careers, and rightfully so. Too much complaining and not enough listening. 10Y is the barometer. Not the S&P. Trump isn’t reversing course. Have to get the 10Y down to help refinance the $9T due this year. Have to get the 10Y down to help every day Americans.

[Siberian13]

Japans Nikkei had to shut of the breakers. Bad open

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

It’s hilarious to watch all these money managers melt down. This will end careers, and rightfully so. Too much complaining and not enough listening. 10Y is the barometer. Not the S&P. Trump isn’t reversing course. Have to get the 10Y down to help refinance the $9T due this year. Have to get the 10Y down to help every day Americans.

The bad part of this is that it seems to be a double edged sword. Lower the 10Y to refi debt, aggregate demand increases for rate sensitive assets, asset prices go back to the moon, inflation.

Apply tariffs, inflation.

I'm a fan of what orange man is doing, but it seems further inflation may be unavoidable. Kinda lean more towards what Charlie Munger thinks about selective tariff use (selective use ain't bad, broad use ain't good)

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

The bad part of this is that it seems to be a double edged sword. Lower the 10Y to refi debt, aggregate demand increases for rate sensitive assets, asset prices go back to the moon, inflation.

Apply tariffs, inflation.

I'm a fan of what orange man is doing, but it seems further inflation may be unavoidable. Kinda lean more towards what Charlie Munger thinks about selective tariff use (selective use ain't bad, broad use ain't good)

Obviously things can change, but Truflation is at 1.22% right now and still headed lower.

Housing is the biggest contributor to inflation calculations (duh). Unfreezing the housing market with lower rates might not have the effect on prices that you’re thinking.

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Obviously things can change, but Truflation is at 1.22% right now and still headed lower.

Housing is the biggest contributor to inflation calculations (duh). Unfreezing the housing market with lower rates might not have the effect on prices that you’re thinking.

That will lower housing short term but hate the idea of lower rates erasing demand destruction that has occured over the past 3 years in the housing market. The real estate pain that everyone is experiencing needs to persist.

Home speculators all need to parish. Low rates 09-19 wrecked the idea of home ownership for a large percentage of America. Cheap money + M2 growth post Rona = runaway home price inflation. My opinion on RE vestors has changed considerably post 2021. They are the same as Rona baby formula speculators, except on mass scale with leverage. Everyone and their mother is now a real estate bro. We needed 10+ years of 6%+ interest rates to wash these people out, cut their broccoli hair, and make them get normal careers, but that demand re-emerges and asset prices will keep soaring as vestors blow through dry powder.

[KhalDrogo]

RIP leveraged longs.

[TheHeel]

[KhalDrogo]

Bought TSLA and NVDA.

[btmcrushers]

I filled 8 of 9 positions so far today. Probably it for me, will see where it goes from here.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

You re-entered the market way too early.

Although there’ll be daily fluctuations, there’s still a lot of “pain” left.

Just wait until unemployment rates rise and small businesses close down. Inflation is still high, consumer and producer indices continue to increase, housing market is still crap (are people even buying anymore?), etc.

We’re not even talking about all the federal-related budget cuts and the direct/indirect effects of them too.

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

You may have called the bottom in TSLA here. Since this post, the stock has spent less than 10 minutes below the price at that time.

Looking like we challenge the 20 day today. Can start to get an idea if this is the C wave of a corrective wave up, or the third wave of a fresh bull run.

Originally Posted by eastbayak

Although I still stand by what I previously said, I also acknowledge that it depends on one's time frame.

Short-term, there'll be a lot of fluctuations (as previously mentioned). One can make (or lose) a lot if they know how to play the market, I'm not one of those people.

Mid-term, I expect the market to retract as bad news/events actually take place (also, as previously mentioned). It might take a little time to get there but we're on our way (especially if the mass RIF of federal employee goes through).

Long-term, stock market will be fine as always.

I'm a believer of the stock market, I have multiple retirement accounts. I'm just one who also seeks a lot of bang for buck. I don't need the most (peak) bang for buck but I do want some bang for buck.

On a side note, I just opened a 529 for one of my kids (on 3/14) and set up monthly deposits for it. It's funny because, although I seek a lot of bang for buck with cash that I transfer into my own retirement accounts, I'm OK with letting my kid's 529 ride out the wave (I suppose it's because I prefer to be as hands off as possible [don't want to manage another account] and it's a long-term play).

TSLA briefly went lower than the "bottom" weeks ago (barely hovering above it right now).

We'll see what happens from this point forward.

I'm sure there's some people, particularly wealthy, who are loving the volatility and making a killing in the short-term.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by stanmarsh

Down 4800 so far. My sister's bf is down 750k.

Did he hit 1 million?

[Siberian13]

Originally Posted by TheHeel

Based on futures and the Asian markets I thought it would be worse. Nvda at $84 was nnnice

[TimBuckTwo]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

It’s hilarious to watch all these money managers melt down. This will end careers, and rightfully so. Too much complaining and not enough listening. 10Y is the barometer. Not the S&P. Trump isn’t reversing course. Have to get the 10Y down to help refinance the $9T due this year. Have to get the 10Y down to help every day Americans.

10 Y has to get to what number/level?

And is there more downside to come or was today the bounce and capitulation or just a dead cat bounce?

[TheHeel]

Originally Posted by Siberian13

Based on futures and the Asian markets I thought it would be worse. Nvda at $84 was nnnice

Unfortunately, it might get worse.


XXXXX tariffs raise odds of U.S. recession, Wall Street economists say

[rms13]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Obviously things can change, but Truflation is at 1.22% right now and still headed lower.

Housing is the biggest contributor to inflation calculations (duh). Unfreezing the housing market with lower rates might not have the effect on prices that you’re thinking.

A bunch of homes in my neighborhood have sold recently. All for all time high prices and all less then a month on the market.