Will tariffs impact card prices?

[HiltonL]

Originally Posted by NatsSBR

As a collector by night and an econ professional by day, I hate to see my worlds collide like this. I could write a lot about this but will do my best to be brief.

The bottom line is that the level of disruption will depend on how long the tariffs actually remain in place. Immediate and near-immediate impacts (taxes imposed by the U.S. government and foreign governments on plastic supplies, padded mailers, and the collectibles themselves) will be noticeable but relatively easy to incorporate into your buying plans. Enforcement variance could cause big issues, though; for example, many people already have horror stories of buying a sealed box and being charged duties on the stated MSRP of each individual pack in the box. Those unpredictable events will hurt much more when tariffs are much higher.

Tariff boosters expect to see positive impacts in domestic industries, and they probably will, but it's likely that consumers will pay increased prices even for wholly domestic products. Existing supplies of finished goods (e.g., the collections we already own) and supplies with completely domestic supply chains (e.g., many products made exclusively out of paper or cardboard, like paper envelopes and storage boxes) won't be affected directly, so they'll be more competitive against taxed products. The rosy view is that this will drive sales of domestic products that are suddenly less expensive in relative terms. That said, people selling these products may just as easily take advantage of the opportunity to increase prices and pad their profit margin per sale -- even though they aren't paying tariffs on their production -- because the products they're competing against are suddenly more expensive. This happens often; the 2018 tariffs on imported washing machines make for a great example.

Second-order effects (increased domestic labor costs to compensate for inflation, increased costs of essential capital equipment/replacement parts/industrial inputs) will take longer to show up but will ultimately be felt at the retail level. There are not THAT many companies that produce printing presses, automated cutting machines, sorting machines, etc. There are probably even fewer that produce their components. I am almost sure that nobody on the industrial side has taken a look at how many border crossings it takes to go from raw materials to component parts to functional machines delivered to factories. This problem will affect the value proposition for end users, potentially in terms of both increased costs and lower product quality as the producers weigh trade-offs.

These dynamics are pretty easy to see coming because in a world with blanket tariffs, this is going to happen in all industries, not just collectibles.

If Trump reverses himself soon, or if Congress reverses him through a veto threat -- both possibilities, but not strong ones IMO -- the disruption will be a short-term bump in the road. If the tariffs remain in place for a moderate length of time, we will see major direct and indirect impacts on collectors. If tariffs remain in place for several years, the economy will incorporate them into the baseline and we will see the country accept them as the new normal.

That's not to say we will be better off in the long run with the tariffs, just that we will get used to them. That adaptation will take much longer than tariff boosters seem to think, so my gut says we ride a painful wave for a few months and the White House shuts them down (not because our trading cards cost more, but because everything costs more). Presumably they will declare victory over our global trading partners in public while acknowledging the political damage in private.

Even if the policies are reversed, there will be secondary and tertiary effects to investment that can't even be measured. Those will include future investment in printing plants and willingness to bring products to existence. It's truly a self-inflicted economic wound

[NatsSBR]

Originally Posted by HiltonL

Even if the policies are reversed, there will be secondary and tertiary effects to investment that can't even be measured. Those will include future investment in printing plants and willingness to bring products to existence. It's truly a self-inflicted economic wound

100% agreed. At this point we ideally see an incredibly rapid about-face and a legislative response that prevents this kind of capricious action in the future.

Edit: Which I wouldn't bet on.

[greatgradegrate]

Originally Posted by orion9578

That makes sense to lay off of your hobby to buy goods you need, if that's what you have to do. I personally don't think things will play out like that, but hey, I'm wrong constantly about all sorts of things .

As a (lowercase g) gamer, I'm already facing a hobby decision forced by tariffs in regards to the Switch 2. If Nintendo announces that the system is higher than the announced $450 for US customers I'm just gonna wait it out. A $550 price tag for a Nintendo system would easily squash any possible fomo.

Cards-wise, if Topps announces the new Masterwork at $320/hobby I'm probably out on that, too. That's the rumored price and I probably would have swallowed it to rip a couple, but not when I'm slightly anxious about money.

[Tim]

Originally Posted by greatgradegrate

Cards-wise, if Topps announces the new Masterwork at $320/hobby I'm probably out on that, too. That's the rumored price and I probably would have swallowed it to rip a couple, but not when I'm slightly anxious about money.

Lol. If MW came out at 320 a box everyone here except you would be jumping through hoops to grab all they could.

[greatgradegrate]

Originally Posted by Tim

Lol. If MW came out at 320 a box everyone here except you would be jumping through hoops to grab all they could.

Grim view of our fellow boardies, lining up to pay $40 more than last two MW!

[Jaysabz]

PSA has ceased accepting gradings submissions from anyone outside of the United States:

https://www.theverge.com/news/643117...ide-us-tariffs

[Rictor]

Originally Posted by orion9578

I wasn't calling this situation and Covid the same thing. I said when Covid first started, people were calling for cards to fall off the face of the earth and they didn't.

I mean, there was a 2 year period where we basically got no new nonsports releases because of production delays. Secondary market prices went insane. When production started again, product prices increased 200-300% and are still elevated to this day.

I'd say Covid did a good job of decimating the hobby for a lot of us.

[orion9578]

Originally Posted by Rictor

I mean, there was a 2 year period where we basically got no new nonsports releases because of production delays. Secondary market prices went insane. When production started again, product prices increased 200-300% and are still elevated to this day.

I'd say Covid did a good job of decimating the hobby for a lot of us.

Never said it was a good thing, or bad thing for that matter

I said it happened, and the prevailing initial thought was that card prices would go down and they didn't