2025 Topps Disney Genesis (Disney Debut)

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by Xiarmadillo

They do so to essentially set a standard,

I cannot imagine how many boxes someone would have to own to warrant dropping $8,500 on a Goofy 1/1 just to set the market.

[Xiarmadillo]

Originally Posted by premium1981

I cannot imagine how many boxes someone would have to own to warrant dropping $8,500 on a Goofy 1/1 just to set the market.

This is the thing about price memory....the $8500 they throw at the goofy isnt a sunk cost....they have a chance to recoup a decent amount from that from flipper/reseller down the road and lose maybe 15-25% only....
the delta/multiplier on box price and increase in velocity of sales could be massive, $100 to $700 + and then let people play the 'chicken and the egg' game on anchoring box price/single price to each other

This is also assuming it is a real sale....which on Ebay since at least mid 2000 is a crapshoot

[Brobocop]

Got skunked on my case break, one and done on case breaks for life since losing the $60 felt like getting kicked in the groin. Not sure how people can gamble on these with hundreds of dollars.

[bub838]

Originally Posted by premium1981

Breaks are empirical data. There is nothing anecdotal or opinionated about it. You can search for them on whatever break site you choose and see the actual demand. It has nothing to do with anyone flipping anything sealed. It’s the actual end users purchasing these breaks. Cinderella fans purchasing Cinderella spots. Anyone who thinks people buy into these breaks to make money is a moron. No flipper is joining a Genesis break and paying hundreds for a Mickey Mouse spot hoping to hit something that they can flip for a profit. It’s Disney fans who like Mickey Mouse. They may very well sell a big hit because people like money. But the breaks are being enjoyed by fans. I clicked into one yesterday and someone was asking about Monsters Inc spots.

People hate missing out on good products. People hate when prices go through the roof. People hate breakers. People blame people buying into breaks for the high prices. People blame people flipping to breakers for high prices. People blame Trump for high prices. People blame Biden for high prices. Maybe, JUST MAYBE, there is actually some demand for it. Even if people choose to ignore that.

You do not know the intention of every end user. You’re making assumptions about who is buying these spots and why they’re buying them. It’s not empirical data, it’s just conjecture.

Your statement in bold is honestly one of the most naive things I’ve ever read on this forum.

[bub838]

The guy selling this card is definitely just a collector. Ignore his other listings or that he’s literally selling (flipping) a box of 2023-25 Totally Certified for nearly 2x msrp.
https://www.ebay.com/itm/20535764610...mis&media=COPY

It’s strictly collectors buying into Genesis breaks. Definitely not people like that seller or any of the many other sellers on eBay right now with Genesis cards, five different sports, Star Wars and GPK also in their listings.

[eastbayak]

Minnie Mouse 1/1 is off the table

[eastbayak]

Anna 1/1 hit eBay.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by bub838

You do not know the intention of every end user.

There are exceptions to every rule but I am very confident in standing by what I said. Call it naive if you want, but I think its more naive to think cartoon card breaks are being completely filled by sports card flippers. And again, I make my comments based on what I actually see. Not what I conjure up in my own head like so many others do. I'm actually watching and listening to those buying into the breaks. Until I see something contrary to what is actually happening I'm much more inclined to make my assumptions based on the actual actions of people, and not the opinions of bitter board posters.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by Xiarmadillo

This is the thing about price memory....the $8500 they throw at the goofy isnt a sunk cost....they have a chance to recoup a decent amount from that from flipper/reseller down the road and lose maybe 15-25% only....
the delta/multiplier on box price and increase in velocity of sales could be massive, $100 to $700 + and then let people play the 'chicken and the egg' game on anchoring box price/single price to each other

This is also assuming it is a real sale....which on Ebay since at least mid 2000 is a crapshoot

I would think if thats the case it would eventually catch up and collapse. I'm not sure a product like Disney Sapphire could climb to $2k a box and maintain its levels at that height by only having fake sales. Seems like your theory would create quicker rises, but also a huge crash as that person(s) dumped and moved on. I've seen wax do that a few times, but the wax wasn't being opened, it was just being moved around. I'm basing my opinion about end user demand by watching people foam at the mouth for breaks.

[Ianhatcher]

All one has to do is look at who is commenting when a big card is pulled, it's nearly ALL sports card collectors. Look at the Walt Disney 1/1 cards (superfractor and sig) from 2024 Topps Chrome. It was filled with sports card collectors and other sports card breakers saying grats and how much? The Superfractor was then sold on Goldin. How very much like a sports card collector would act...

If there are all these Disney Card Collectors out there where is their fan groups? Where is their subreddit? where is their massive FB group? Disney Pin Traders has groups with over 70k people. So does Lorcana. At most you'd find a FB group with a few thousand people in it. Think the biggest I saw was a FB group with 3,500 people...truly massive...staggering amount really...

[Yanks23]

Fanatics will eventually flood the market with disney products and most of these singles will come down in value - especially the crazy high prices on 1/1. I dont think they are going to limit disney products while they make multiple stars wars and soon marvel sets. These are not sportscards with rcs and being 1st yr topps chrome wont matter in long run if they continue to make tc, genesis, sapphire year after year. what will matter is the artwork used as that is usually the most important thing to most non-sport collectors.

[bub838]

Originally Posted by Yanks23

Fanatics will eventually flood the market with disney products and most of these singles will come down in value - especially the crazy high prices on 1/1. I dont think they are going to limit disney products while they make multiple stars wars and soon marvel sets. These are not sportscards with rcs and being 1st yr topps chrome wont matter in long run if they continue to make tc, genesis, sapphire year after year. what will matter is the artwork used as that is usually the most important thing to most non-sport collectors.

Oh man, have I got bad news for you.

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1346167

[eastbayak]

Just moved 5 boxes at $720 F/F per.

I've recouped my initial buy-in for the 9 boxes I pre-ordered via eBay in Jan ($2990.75).

After shipping fees, I'll net a $550+ overall gain and get to sit on 4 boxes for free (3 of which I've set aside for myself/kids for the long-term).

On a separate note, I picked up a Cyclops /99 for ~$28 shipped. I'll be adding some more base /99s, especially at the lower-end of current prices.

[dd316]

Originally Posted by Yanks23

These are not sportscards with rcs and being 1st yr topps chrome wont matter in long run if they continue to make tc, genesis, sapphire year after year.

On the contrary, the more they continue to make these sets the more people who come in later will want the first one.

[DynaEtch]

Originally Posted by Ianhatcher

All one has to do is look at who is commenting when a big card is pulled, it's nearly ALL sports card collectors. Look at the Walt Disney 1/1 cards (superfractor and sig) from 2024 Topps Chrome. It was filled with sports card collectors and other sports card breakers saying grats and how much? The Superfractor was then sold on Goldin. How very much like a sports card collector would act...

If there are all these Disney Card Collectors out there where is their fan groups? Where is their subreddit? where is their massive FB group? Disney Pin Traders has groups with over 70k people. So does Lorcana. At most you'd find a FB group with a few thousand people in it. Think the biggest I saw was a FB group with 3,500 people...truly massive...staggering amount really...

So much this…it’s kinda amusing. Go ahead and search Disney Chrome on eBay and sort by highest price, that’ll give anyone an idea of what’s going on in a fast minute. One PSA slabbed listing after the next, 250k…150k….100k superfractors down the line. Most by ultra modern sports sellers. It’s almost as if this is not aimed at the Disney pin collector for their anniversary gift but a grift emerging from sports exactly as you were referring to

[Yanks23]

Originally Posted by bub838

Oh man, have I got bad news for you.

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1346167

yes sports card people complain about same photo used but they also have rc in 1st year as i mentioned and my experience has been with non-sports mostly marvel is the artwork that matters the most not if it is 1st yr vs yr 20.

[Yanks23]

Originally Posted by dd316

On the contrary, the more they continue to make these sets the more people who come in later will want the first one.

that has not been my experience with marvel over the years. people arent paying big dollars for the 90s marvel stuff. there hasnt been a premium to 1st yr marvel stuff compared to rc in sportscards. people spent stupid money on 1990 mu for psa 10 for sets and now they cant sell them. the artwork matters much more in non-sports than if it is yr1 vs yr10 of a set.

[Yanks23]

Originally Posted by DynaEtch

So much this…it’s kinda amusing. Go ahead and search Disney Chrome on eBay and sort by highest price, that’ll give anyone an idea of what’s going on in a fast minute. One PSA slabbed listing after the next, 250k…150k….100k superfractors down the line. Most by ultra modern sports sellers. It’s almost as if this is not aimed at the Disney pin collector for their anniversary gift but a grift emerging from sports exactly as you were referring to

this is the new "pmg" pump from 2021 all over again but this time you got fanatics promoting the pump. disney is hot right now bc it has been untapped market for years for cards compared to sw and marvel. you got breakers pumping new cards like they are grails when they have AI autos on them or recycled artwork for the 10x time but it is a tc superfractor.

[Brobocop]

Looks like $800 is the ceiling right now on boxes. Can't find any sold boxes on ebay since March 18. Last auction was on March 17 which sold for $709. Also, in the break I was in yesterday, that I struck out on, had some trouble filling spots and had to heavily discount about 20-30 to get the break to fill.

Will be interesting to see if action picks up over the weekend or if the wind is now blowing against the sails.

[dd316]

Originally Posted by Yanks23

that has not been my experience with marvel over the years. people arent paying big dollars for the 90s marvel stuff. there hasnt been a premium to 1st yr marvel stuff compared to rc in sportscards. people spent stupid money on 1990 mu for psa 10 for sets and now they cant sell them. the artwork matters much more in non-sports than if it is yr1 vs yr10 of a set.

Not big dollars, but the interest is still there, right? Do the recent Marvel Masterpieces do anything for the originals in the sense that people coming in late to the game want to go back and complete collections? Or is it just about NOW NOW NOW, then NEXT NEXT NEXT, until they get bored?

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by dd316

Or is it just about NOW NOW NOW, then NEXT NEXT NEXT, until they get bored?

Everything is about NOW NOW NOW today. Pretty much everyone in society has the attention span of a gnat.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by Ianhatcher

All one has to do is look at who is commenting when a big card is pulled, it's nearly ALL sports card collectors. Look at the Walt Disney 1/1 cards (superfractor and sig) from 2024 Topps Chrome. It was filled with sports card collectors and other sports card breakers saying grats and how much? The Superfractor was then sold on Goldin. How very much like a sports card collector would act...

If there are all these Disney Card Collectors out there where is their fan groups? Where is their subreddit? where is their massive FB group? Disney Pin Traders has groups with over 70k people. So does Lorcana. At most you'd find a FB group with a few thousand people in it. Think the biggest I saw was a FB group with 3,500 people...truly massive...staggering amount really...

I think a lot of different things are getting mixed up in these conversations. I don't think anyone said sports card collectors have nothing to do with the release. Where there is money, people will come from all over. My entire conversation was about the people were buying into breaks and who they were. I fully understand that anything hot will draw attention from all over. I get that and do not dispute that. But my entire argument was from what I saw happening in breaks. I do not host breaks, and I do not buy into breaks. But I watch some for data and hobby knowledge. If I'm wanting to buy something myself I see what kind of demand there is and where its coming from. I have priced out some of these breaks over the last week and some breakers are pulling 5 figures from a single case with the people buying in. As I am calculating, or listening, I see the commentary from those involved. They are fans. Sure, there are probably some here and there that are sports guys and gals trying to hit big, but those are the exception and not the norm.

The wax demand and the secondary single demand is a different conversation although it does all tie together. People will always buy up singles and boxes and try to get more from them. Thats the hobby and always has been. It was that way in the 80's and 90's, even before the internet. But you can take away every sports card person and these boxes still sell, and breaks still fill.

[PoPCulture]

Originally Posted by dd316

Not big dollars, but the interest is still there, right? Do the recent Marvel Masterpieces do anything for the originals in the sense that people coming in late to the game want to go back and complete collections? Or is it just about NOW NOW NOW, then NEXT NEXT NEXT, until they get bored?

Hahahaha. Nobody that has arrived in the last 5-6 years is going back and completing anything. Most think Nonsports is a new thing that has only been around for 5 years…hence RC on so many eBay listings for characters that have been around for decades.

[bub838]

Originally Posted by Yanks23

yes sports card people complain about same photo used but they also have rc in 1st year as i mentioned and my experience has been with non-sports mostly marvel is the artwork that matters the most not if it is 1st yr vs yr 20.

Thank you for that word vomit. My point was don't be surprised it Topps uses the same artwork over and over.

[Yanks23]

Originally Posted by bub838

Thank you for that word vomit. My point was don't be surprised it Topps uses the same artwork over and over.

ok. cool response.