In 20 years, what will be the BIG cards to have?

[Nomad]

the pop counts say it all. am I gonna be too lazy to look dis up?

[jecards]

Originally Posted by r338

Pop count might be < 25 per player for 2015, but they have been going up every year. I read numbers can be greater than 100 per player starting in 2019.

That’s the problem with unnumbered parallels. Sellers will always say production is low while buyers have no way to verify.

theres no way its greater than 100 per player, you would see so many more available on ebay

[r338]

Originally Posted by jecards

theres no way its greater than 100 per player, you would see so many more on available on ebay

There was a post here from a few years ago with estimate production for Galactics. I can’t seem to find the post, but I do recall low production for 2015 and 2016 and the production numbers going up subsequently every year.

[kipgen]

I'll throw in Mosaic Genesis and Peacock parallels as well as micro mosaics

I base that on the fact that I like them and nothing else

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by kipgen

I'll throw in Mosaic Genesis and Peacock parallels as well as micro mosaics

I base that on the fact that I like them and nothing else

I used to absolutely dig mosaic but it's gotten old to me quick

[ninjabum87]

Originally Posted by r338

Pop count might be < 25 per player for 2015, but they have been going up every year. I read numbers can be greater than 100 per player starting in 2019.

That’s the problem with unnumbered parallels. Sellers will always say production is low while buyers have no way to verify.

Idk where you get 100 from. Their pop counts for graded cards still seem to support 30 or fewer. They have lower pop counts than color blast, a lot fewer than downtown, an azzload fewer than Kaboom, and a metric crapton fewer than something like a genesis.

[Nomad]

Started at 3, ended at 3.

[ninjabum87]

Originally Posted by r338

There was a post here from a few years ago with estimate production for Galactics. I can’t seem to find the post, but I do recall low production for 2015 and 2016 and the production numbers going up subsequently every year.

Go look at how many have been graded for hype bois like Luka, Zion, Wemby, and stalwarts like Lebron and Steph.
I saw the same claims in the Galactic thread back when and believed them. I wouldn't have been surprised if they were right, but if so, the pop counts don't bear that out to be any sort of huge increase if any at all.
From PSA total graded for Lebron base-
2015- 3
2016- 12
2017- 11
2018- 12
2019- 6
2020- 11
2021- 9
2022- 4
2023- 3

Compare that to Lebron color blasts-
2019- 20
2020- 34
2021- 15
2022- 10
2023- 9

Or Lebron Kabooms (this is the trend Id expect with "massive increase in print run")-
2015- 29
2016- 22
2018- 20
2019- 45
2020- 74
2021- 98
2022- 82
2023- 55

Then lets compare it to prizm Mojo /25
2015- 4
2016- 4
2017- 7
2018- 12
2019- 12
2020- 20
2021- 10
2022- 13
2023- 11

Blue Ice /99-
2018- 41
2019- 40
2020- stinks cause blue ice went to 125 so I will sub in purple /99 from here out- 63
2021- 27
2022- 45
2023- 46

It's an imperfect science, obviously influenced by popularity, regrading, how much is ripped, but I think you can make inferences.

Any of the other top guys should bear this out be they Edwards, Giannis, Luka, Curry, etc. I feel like I may have seen a bit of a higher blip on some rookies but I chalked that up as likely people regrading things or converting from one service to the other to capitalize on hype. Do with this info what you will. Not trying to pump at all, I just don't like misinformation floating around cause people 15 years from now will find this via their Muskchip linked to their cerebral cortex and take it as gospel that they have 100+ print runs when they quite obviously don't. I have been enjoying lower prices and obviously with all the hype beasts having fled from their massive pump and dump from 2018 and 2019 I recognize galactics are a bit of a niche audience. Hopefully it stays that way. Just do your own research.

[ninjabum87]

Originally Posted by Nomad

Started at 3, ended at 3.

Ty Nomad. I like your format better. Prolly faster than me manually searching back and forth on my phone for a half hour.

[Nomad]

Sorry 'bout your guy.

[TSonn]

Originally Posted by r338

Pop count might be < 25 per player for 2015, but they have been going up every year. I read numbers can be greater than 100 per player starting in 2019.

That’s the problem with unnumbered parallels. Sellers will always say production is low while buyers have no way to verify.

Originally Posted by Nomad

Started at 3, ended at 3.

Thanks! Just came back in to say the same thing. LeBron and Curry PSA pop count on the base Galactics have remained super low each year.

There are more Galactics because they started adding the parallel to more and more inserts each year, but the base parallel remains < 25.

Whoever said 100 didn't know what they were talking about or was including all insert Galactics in the PR (which would be dumb).

[r338]

Originally Posted by Nomad

Started at 3, ended at 3.

Thanks. That is great information.

When PSA pop count is three for 2023, what do we project as the total production?

[ninjabum87]

Im just assuming PR is 25 or so from 2016 onwards. Pretty consistent with other /25 cards. 2015 who knows. People speculate 10-15 but it could be higher with the others and few got graded. Pop counts for that year are pretty low across the board.

Im guessing color blasts are somewhere between 25-50. I think people love to try and regrade those. Kabooms in the hundreds certainly.

[kipgen]

Originally Posted by ninjabum87

Im just assuming PR is 25 or so from 2016 onwards. Pretty consistent with other /25 cards. 2015 who knows. People speculate 10-15 but it could be higher with the others and few got graded. Pop counts for that year are pretty low across the board.

Im guessing color blasts are somewhere between 25-50. I think people love to try and regrade those. Kabooms in the hundreds certainly.

The obsidian color blasts could be 25-50 for sure, the spectra color blasts seem more like /25 with how rare they are

downtowns seem like they're out of 100 based on other pop reports but the numbers are down this year, maybe people haven't been opening as much product

[Nomad]

Originally Posted by ninjabum87

Im just assuming PR is 25 or so from 2016 onwards. Pretty consistent with other /25 cards. 2015 who knows. People speculate 10-15 but it could be higher with the others and few got graded. Pop counts for that year are pretty low across the board.

Im guessing color blasts are somewhere between 25-50. I think people love to try and regrade those. Kabooms in the hundreds certainly.

From the Nesmith research, usually when I see a pop 3 that is indicative of a gold or less. Think flux Moonlight or an Obsidian Green Flood RPA. However, we know the Galactic pop each year is at least 12 (unless Panini pulled a reverse). Rarish things like Green Dragon are in the pop 9-12 range, as are /25s such as Mojo Prizm (maybe a slightly higher pop 11-17 range).

But then that was using Nesmith's classmate Anthony Edwards rookie as a proxy, which would be more heavily graded. Let me check the pops of equivalent top rookies through the years.



So yeah, a 25 print run seems about right. What surprises me is the low Wemby pops. Everyone thought they were breaking everything in the search of the next GOAT, and it turns out boxes were being hoarded (or not attracting enough breakers?).

This checks out with the LeBron numbers too. Modern Galactic is mojo rare. Looks like 2015 to 2017 may actually have been in the 10 range.

[ninjabum87]

Not sure what to make of 2023, I can say with certainty the quality went way down. So many revolution cards with miscuts and bad corners/edges out the pack. My guess is a mixture of ungradable cards combined with people using other companies more often lately, and just plain old "less time to find em all". Id say less product being ripped is possible but its a Wemby year so idk that makes sense. I think the huge nosedive in 2023 kabooms is probably similar. As mentioned prior I have literally not seen a card that wasn't horribly miscut.

[r338]

Originally Posted by Nomad

Started at 3, ended at 3.

The above are the PSA pop counts for Lebron cards. But if we look at PSA and BGS combined for Galactic Lebron base cards, here are the combined pop counts:

2015 11
2016 15
2017 20
2018 27
2019 18
2020 13
2021 10
2022 4
2023 3

Print run of 25 seems low for many of these years. You would have to assume no one keeps their Galactics ungraded or that there is a lot of cracking and resubmitting with these.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by ninjabum87

Im just assuming PR is 25 or so from 2016 onwards. Pretty consistent with other /25 cards. 2015 who knows. People speculate 10-15 but it could be higher with the others and few got graded. Pop counts for that year are pretty low across the board.

Im guessing color blasts are somewhere between 25-50. I think people love to try and regrade those. Kabooms in the hundreds certainly.

I’d be surprised if the PR is still ~25 on the base. If it is, the rip rate on the product has to be less than 20%.

[TSonn]

Originally Posted by r338

Print run of 25 seems low for many of these years. You would have to assume no one keeps their Galactics ungraded or that there is a lot of cracking and resubmitting with these.

I think both of these things are likely, especially with the years that the pop spikes from 2017-2019.

2018 is LeBron's first Laker galactic. All 3 years were probably in a bunch of resubs during the COVID stuff.

[tjforce]

Unofficial roll call out of curiosity:

Who has a 2015 Galactic of a significant player (top 5 or so in the set) and who as a Color Blast, Downtown, or a Kaboom of a significant players.

This could become a 'show off your card that you think will matter in 20 years' thread.

[r338]

Originally Posted by TSonn

I think both of these things are likely, especially with the years that the pop spikes from 2017-2019.

2018 is LeBron's first Laker galactic. All 3 years were probably in a bunch of resubs during the COVID stuff.

Or you can compare the numbers to cards that are actually numbered to /100. Or compare to any other numbered cards.

Even with resubmissions, the PSA and BGS graded pop is usually only a fraction of the serial number print runs.

[ninjabum87]

Originally Posted by r338

The above are the PSA pop counts for Lebron cards. But if we look at PSA and BGS combined for Galactic Lebron base cards, here are the combined pop counts:

2015 11
2016 15
2017 20
2018 27
2019 18
2020 13
2021 10
2022 4
2023 3

Print run of 25 seems low for many of these years. You would have to assume no one keeps their Galactics ungraded or that there is a lot of cracking and resubmitting with these.

They do crack and resub. The numbers are consistent with what you see with /25 cards on the PSA side.

Look at the mojo numbers combined between the two-

2015- 12
2016- 13
2017- 20
2018- 23
2019- 30
2020- 24

Becketts search is trash so Im not gonna waste more time going through it. You should get the idea. This is a card with a hard print run of /25 and its got the same wacky teen to 20ish/30ish counts between the two.

[ninjabum87]

Originally Posted by r338

Or you can compare the numbers to cards that are actually numbered to /100. Or compare to any other numbered cards.

Even with resubmissions, the PSA and BGS graded pop is usually only a fraction of the serial number print runs.

Did you just gloss over my post where I posted literal examples comparing to real world /25 and /99 pop counts?

[r338]

Originally Posted by ninjabum87

Did you just gloss over my post where I posted literal examples comparing to real world /25 and /99 pop counts?

Cards from the same product are closer comparisons. You do not have to try to guess what percentage Prizm were broken versus Revolution.

Revolution has cards numbered to /100…Cosmic. It also has cards numbered to /25…..Futera, and later Infinite. Only a fraction of those cards were ever graded by BGS or PSA.

[Nomad]

They are not closer comparisons. Fewer people will grade Futura just as Lava barely merits a grade. Cause there is not that much market demand for Rev outside of Galactic.

A Galactic would be graded at the same rate as probably any desirable Prizm.