First Buzz: 2024 Panini Prizm football cards

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by spend1kget50bac

the thing is though that even if multiple of the qbs do hit big like herbert(at least in terms of his hype and promise) and burrow, there is still the problem of supply in 2024 vs 2020.

Now it's not like panini gives me the numbers or anything lol, but one doesn't need the numbers to see that retail has been in stores at walmart pretty much everywhere(or at least lots of them). Much moreso than 2020. And 2020 was printed a lot(thats why 2020 will never hit 2017 levels imo or even close even if burrow does win 3 sbs like PM). Like if we're grading on a 1 to 10 scale in terms of amount of product likely printed, 2020 is a 6-7 and 2024 is a 9+........

And with those sorts of production amounts, regardless of how good some of these qbs are the product just doesn't have a lot of top end potential due to the supply component. Remember 2 sides to the equation......and you need both to work out for big $(in singles or sealed wax) to work out.

my guess is that if 2+ of the qbs from this class blow up(likely daniels even moreso and then 1-2+ more), then the sealed product over time won't drop in price in gross dollars and may even trend upwards a tick. But when accounting for inflation and fees of selling/buying it will probably lose a little ground....and thats even if the qbs do well!

Just my opinion- maybe Im off on the supply. But look at the 2020 prizm first buzz thread and and then compare it to this one, and just from reading that it seems pretty apparent a lot more of 2024 was made.

I don't know the numbers, but anecdotally, it seems like a LOT of this was printed.

Last weekend at my Walmart I saw 60+ Hanger boxes for sale on top of 40 blasters and twenty plus megas.

But honestly, what you are saying is correct. If two QB's out of this class turn out to be stars, this will still go up in price, even with the overproduction.

[blackbears86]

Does anyone have any thoughts on the 24 pack retail boxes?


Comparatively, the price on these are cheap, which I assume means they are a bad bust.

[Slvnumber2]

Originally Posted by jkampis

I’ll take a toke, too. If Henry doesn’t make the Hall they’ll probably never put another RB in there (aside from likely Barkley). Eggheads looking merely at stats (of which Henry’s are still exceptional) don’t account for how much the position has evolved into a platoon position.

Plus he is already #6 all time in rushing TD’s. If he retired today he is a lock HOF with his numbers, and two more years of 1000 yards rushing which is easy to do with a 17 game schedule and he is top 8-10 in yards as well.

[slyguy]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

Does anyone have any thoughts on the 24 pack retail boxes?

Comparatively, the price on these are cheap, which I assume means they are a bad bust.

They are the worst of all 2024 PRizm NFL retail products imo (unless you simply love base cards)... fewest silver prizms and RCs for the $ spent.

[ChefCurry312]

Originally Posted by bub838

This has been floating around. The Target product page URL (not active yet) is out there too.

If anyone is interested, the Target hanger boxes (Pink Wave) are available now. Apparently these won’t be in-store.

https://www.target.com/p/2024-panini...x/-/A-94325500

[spend1kget50bac]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

I don't know the numbers, but anecdotally, it seems like a LOT of this was printed.

Last weekend at my Walmart I saw 60+ Hanger boxes for sale on top of 40 blasters and twenty plus megas.

But honestly, what you are saying is correct. If two QB's out of this class turn out to be stars, this will still go up in price, even with the overproduction.

just to be clear i think it has a good chance to go up a little(grossly) in price if multiple qbs turn out to be stars, but that even that scenario in real dollars it will most likely go down in price.

Similarly as a comparison 1988 topps baseball has probably gone up in price a little since release, but the real value has gone down and it's obviously not been a good 'investment'.

People when they buy and hold this stuff tend to look at smaller windows/time frames for selling though. Still even if we look at say a 7 year window- if blasters are actually selling for 45-47 dollars on average then, thats likely a decline in real value(and certainly after considering the cost of buying/selling)

[slyguy]

Originally Posted by spend1kget50bac

just to be clear i think it has a good chance to go up a little(grossly) in price if multiple qbs turn out to be stars, but that even that scenario in real dollars it will most likely go down in price.

Similarly as a comparison 1988 topps baseball has probably gone up in price a little since release, but the real value has gone down and it's obviously not been a good 'investment'.

People when they buy and hold this stuff tend to look at smaller windows/time frames for selling though. Still even if we look at say a 7 year window- if blasters are actually selling for 45-47 dollars on average then, thats likely a decline in real value(and certainly after considering the cost of buying/selling)

Yes, I agree:

The 2024 Prizm will go up if some QBs are stars or even superstars.
But with the huge print run, upside is limited... it'll be unlikely to keep up with inflation unless one's a true superstar QB. We'll see.

If it was a more regular print run, then there's that 3x, 5x, 10x potential like 2017 or 2018 etc NFL wax. But the huge overprint snuffs that.

...It's the same with slab RCs and such... if it goes $100 to $120 over 10 years, that's not ideal. You want $100 to $200 or even $500+ to pace inflation and opportunity costs, sell/tax fees.

[spend1kget50bac]

Originally Posted by slyguy

They are the worst of all 2024 PRizm NFL retail products imo (unless you simply love base cards)... fewest silver prizms and RCs for the $ spent.

if you're ripping then sure(especially if you consider per card price). I would tend to gravitate towards the others, but then again I wouldn't rip any of this retail product.

But if you're holding for resale, the retail packs(with smaller number of cards in each pack and more packs per box) always tend to do better than they 'should'(when looking at things in terms of per price card and what you would likely get when/if the buyer rips). My hypothesis is that some buyers just prefer 4 or 5 packs of 4 cards than a much bigger fat pack or whatever for the same price.

The other thing to consider is that the 24 ct retail pack boxes can be bought dirt cheap now. Auctions on ebay are closing in the 80s it looks like. I still wouldn't buy them at that price given my thoughts on the print run, but isn't that a decent little bit cheaper than what they can be bought in stores?

[Asian62150]

Originally Posted by spend1kget50bac

if you're ripping then sure(especially if you consider per card price). I would tend to gravitate towards the others, but then again I wouldn't rip any of this retail product.

But if you're holding for resale, the retail packs(with smaller number of cards in each pack and more packs per box) always tend to do better than they 'should'(when looking at things in terms of per price card and what you would likely get when/if the buyer rips). My hypothesis is that some buyers just prefer 4 or 5 packs of 4 cards than a much bigger fat pack or whatever for the same price.

The other thing to consider is that the 24 ct retail pack boxes can be bought dirt cheap now. Auctions on ebay are closing in the 80s it looks like. I still wouldn't buy them at that price given my thoughts on the print run, but isn't that a decent little bit cheaper than what they can be bought in stores?

Are we looking at the same thing? The ones I've seen have been $130+

At $80, I would definitely buy some to stash for later.

[Coach Ditka]

Originally Posted by Asian62150

Are we looking at the same thing? The ones I've seen have been $130+

At $80, I would definitely buy some to stash for later.

Yeah, I'm also seeing $130-135ish range w/one ending in a few hours at $136.

[Fanatics2026]

Originally Posted by spend1kget50bac

the thing is though that even if multiple of the qbs do hit big like herbert(at least in terms of his hype and promise) and burrow, there is still the problem of supply in 2024 vs 2020.

Now it's not like panini gives me the numbers or anything lol, but one doesn't need the numbers to see that retail has been in stores at walmart pretty much everywhere(or at least lots of them). Much moreso than 2020. And 2020 was printed a lot(thats why 2020 will never hit 2017 levels imo or even close even if burrow does win 3 sbs like PM). Like if we're grading on a 1 to 10 scale in terms of amount of product likely printed, 2020 is a 6-7 and 2024 is a 9+........

And with those sorts of production amounts, regardless of how good some of these qbs are the product just doesn't have a lot of top end potential due to the supply component. Remember 2 sides to the equation......and you need both to work out for big $(in singles or sealed wax) to work out.

my guess is that if 2+ of the qbs from this class blow up(likely daniels even moreso and then 1-2+ more), then the sealed product over time won't drop in price in gross dollars and may even trend upwards a tick. But when accounting for inflation and fees of selling/buying it will probably lose a little ground....and thats even if the qbs do well!

Just my opinion- maybe Im off on the supply. But look at the 2020 prizm first buzz thread and and then compare it to this one, and just from reading that it seems pretty apparent a lot more of 2024 was made.

I’ll agree 2024 has to be over produced

[Slvnumber2]

High supply and low demand is bad(2022). Low supply and high demand (2017-2018) is very good for prices. Appears 2024 is going to test the high demand (good QB’s) with high to really high supply factor - where prices land will depend on if Caleb, McCarthy, Nix, Maye… also hit like Daniels in terms of numbers and playoff wins.

[bub838]

Originally Posted by slyguy

They are the worst of all 2024 PRizm NFL retail products imo (unless you simply love base cards)... fewest silver prizms and RCs for the $ spent.

People love black & white checkerboard, though.

[spend1kget50bac]

Originally Posted by Asian62150

Are we looking at the same thing? The ones I've seen have been $130+

At $80, I would definitely buy some to stash for later.

you are right my bad. I got it confused with something else. Im currently seeing them around retail.

[spend1kget50bac]

Originally Posted by Coach Ditka

Yeah, I'm also seeing $130-135ish range w/one ending in a few hours at $136.

you are correct I had it confused with something else.

[spend1kget50bac]

Originally Posted by slyguy

Yes, I agree:

The 2024 Prizm will go up if some QBs are stars or even superstars.
But with the huge print run, upside is limited... it'll be unlikely to keep up with inflation unless one's a true superstar QB. We'll see.

If it was a more regular print run, then there's that 3x, 5x, 10x potential like 2017 or 2018 etc NFL wax. But the huge overprint snuffs that.

...It's the same with slab RCs and such... if it goes $100 to $120 over 10 years, that's not ideal. You want $100 to $200 or even $500+ to pace inflation and opportunity costs, sell/tax fees.

yeah 100 to 120 over that time is a definite money loser. By quite a lot actually.

Related to this, I think 2018 is a good buy still and has potential for growth. I've actually been getting more of this lately. You look at the two star qbs with 3 mvps between them, and when one(or both) of them breaks through and wins a sb or two it seems bound to climb higher. Plus saquon is a nice little bonus/add on to the potential. I mean it's kind of crazy to me to think about how it costs 11-1200 for a 2024 prizm hobby box and 2100 for a 2018 hobby box. Given everything, that spread should be a lot more imo. 2018 already contains bigtime mvp superstar qbs, and 2 of them. Whereas in 2024 that's
not at all guaranteed and probably not all that likely at that level. Sure some of 6 over time are likely to be very good, but lamar and allen good? And even if 2024 does produce 2 Allen/Lamar type stars, you still have the supply issue.

some retail for 2018 is still semi-affordable as well(relative to 2017 of course)

2017, otoh, I liquidated most of(and it was a fair bit) the hobby and retail I had from back then during this season. Still have 1 hobby box and a modest amount of prizm and optic retail in one of my storage units, but the price being what it is/was just seemed like it has a better chance to have plateaued already and maybe decrease than go up a lot more.

Although I do wonder about 2017 supply(retail and hobby) vs 2018 supply. I would guess 2017 is less....but by how much I don't know.

[slyguy]

Originally Posted by spend1kget50bac

...Although I do wonder about 2017 supply(retail and hobby) vs 2018 supply. I would guess 2017 is less....but by how much I don't know.

I think some wax products for 2017 NFL are getting really thin. Others products still have a good amount when you look at BOC and DA and Steel and etc big dealers. Prices are high 2017 wax, but people buy it... because Mahomes RCs are so much now. There are multiple other HOF guys drafted in 2017 also, but Mahomes clearly carries the set value. Many would rather chase than buck up to get the single cards, and some people rip 2017 just for fun (I mainly buy Mahomes singles/RCs... but I do rip sealed sometimes).

2018 wax has a lot of supply. People can just buy those RCs fairly easy if they want them. Few people want Lamar RCs, Saquon is too little too late, and Josh Allen is popular but limited by being Mahomes' contemporary. People know by Allen won't catch Mahomes (might not come close) barring big injury or some fluke events. The prices are what they are for a reason.

...I hope the best for 2024 Prizm (and other stuff). There are at least 10 good rook prospects in the set, but it was printed to the moon. Time will tell.

Imo, 2024's best hope is that 2025 draft prospects are nearly all low level (esp QBs), so breaks might keep consuming the 2024 stuff - but that's mostly just 2024 hobby/primo/fotl boxes.

[spend1kget50bac]

Originally Posted by slyguy

I think some wax products for 2017 NFL are getting really thin. Others products still have a good amount when you look at BOC and DA and Steel and etc big dealers. Prices are high 2017 wax, but people buy it... because Mahomes RCs are so much now. There are multiple other HOF guys drafted in 2017 also, but Mahomes clearly carries the set value. Many would rather chase than buck up to get the single cards, and some people rip 2017 just for fun (I mainly buy Mahomes singles/RCs... but I do rip sealed sometimes).

I guess it's all relative and depends on one's perspective. I collect/have collected a lot of older baseball wax as well, and to me 1973 topps(the schmidt eligible series ones) boxes or something like that is 'really thin'. I might see a few boxes of that here and there on ebay every 4 months, and then another couple boxes on heritage auctions or whatever. As you said 2017 prizm football(hobby and retail) can be ordered with a 3 second search at the big sites, and there are always many current daily auctions for retail and hobby products on ebay for 2017 prizm. That doesn't even count the thousands and thousands of people like me who have boxes of sealed product at home and no plan to ever open it. Or when we sell it like I did the people who bought it also had no plan to open it. In general I think the more expensive sealed product is, the less likely someone is going to rip it for fun. Right now 2017 is 4x as expensive as 2018. For me it's all about potential/future....at 3k a hobby box awhile back I liked the potential of 2017 hobby. At 8k(and I didn't net quite that much as a seller after selling fees)? Less so.....I mean heck it's still fairly easy to find sealed cases(and at multiple places). The reality is 2017 is an expensive product already now(for modern mass produced wax at least).

Agree that Mahomes is always going to be better than Lamar and Allen(and the fact that 2017 is less volume to some degree helps as well). And I believe 2017 is always going to be worth a good bit more than 2018. I'm just thinking the ratio of the price difference may end up being more like 2.5-3x over time rather than 4x. But it's all just a guess....nobody really knows. If I knew what I was talking about I would have bought more than 2 cases of 2017 hobby in the first place lol.

As for 2024, I do think less interest in 2025(if those players stink) could help 2024. but a little different than in the way you described. I really wouldn't worry about the total volume of 2024 retail out there now and how those numbers on the supply side play out over time. It's likely so incredibly massive that even if a much higher than normal/expected people rip it year after year, it's still not going to get down to supply numbers that benefit that side of the equation. Rather, if 2025 qbs generate no buzz and 2024 qbs like daniels and nix take off more(and williams greatly improves) people will just gravitate towards that set more in terms of the interest/demand side of things. Some of it will be ripped sure, but like I said I just don't think stabilizing(and maybe increasing even some) 2024 values are going to come from the supply side of things improving but rather the demand curve.

One important point about supply curves and price is there is obviously a very strong relationship, but it's not linear. Here is a great example- let's say they made 5-6 million of each 1990 topps baseball card. If 25% of those are just immediately incinerated, the supply has decreased by 25%. But in this model, price is not likely to increase 25%. Simply because the threshhold was overshot in the first place by such an enormous amount.

Now 2024 prizm foootball is not 1990 topps baseball, but I think that same principle is in play.

I'd rather have 2024 prizm that 22 or 23 though right now.

[blackandgold]

Looking to purchase some 2024- Whats the best format besides hobby?

[Coach Ditka]

Originally Posted by blackandgold

Looking to purchase some 2024- Whats the best format besides hobby?

Everything is obviously watered down & a big gamble. Hangers are the only retail w/numbered cards. I have a few hangers, megas, & retaip boxes but am leaving everything sealed. I don't have any luck.

[Slvnumber2]

Originally Posted by blackandgold

Looking to purchase some 2024- Whats the best format besides hobby?

I prefer mega boxes and value/fat packs. Value packs have 3 RWB cards, one green, and one silver and at $14.99 for 15 cards you are at $1 a card per pack. Blasters are $35-45 for 24 cards and no guarantees. Hangers have the possibility of numbered cards but as most people can attest have been pretty tough getting them.

[blackandgold]

Originally Posted by Slvnumber2

I prefer mega boxes and value/fat packs. Value packs have 3 RWB cards, one green, and one silver and at $14.99 for 15 cards you are at $1 a card per pack. Blasters are $35-45 for 24 cards and no guarantees. Hangers have the possibility of numbered cards but as most people can attest have been pretty tough getting them.

Seems to me the Megas and value/fat packs are the way to go. Ill probably sit on some it to sell later down the road sealed Thanks!

[slyguy]

Originally Posted by blackandgold

Seems to me the Megas and value/fat packs are the way to go. Ill probably sit on some it to sell later down the road sealed Thanks!

Yep. To date, about 16,581 people have same sentiment (and retail Prizm still isn't sold out 1.5months after release).

And count me in for prefer the 2024 Prizm fat packs / cello boxes (I got about $15k worth)... limited upside but the most prizms for the $.

It's the 2024 rookie QBs success versus the Panini printing press. We shall see.

[spend1kget50bac]

Originally Posted by blackandgold

Looking to purchase some 2024- Whats the best format besides hobby?

What's your goal?

If you're going to actually open the cards now(or whenever), I'd probably go with value packs. better price per card now for one.
If you're going to just hold it for a long time sealed and hope it goes up a lot over time(which I don't think is a good strategy considering supply; there is just too much of it) I'd probably go with blasters or the retail boxes of 24 packs. Part of that is based on what buyers tend to want to buy years later in sealed product. The other factor is that when someone buys older sealed product, typically it's just one 'investor' moving it to another 'investor'(and not someone neccessarily planning to rip)

[jmarascojr]

My local Target was overflowing with Topps flagship and 2024 Prizm blasters yesterday...

Easily 40-50, never seen so many.... Yet no Megas and/or fat packs...