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Old 01-05-2025, 07:00 AM   #26
ThatGuyPal
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If that's you, congrats. I can't stand that man but if someone from the board got that card that's still awesome. Also you got the full Hogan, while I think it's cool and wouldn't mind one some people don't like that his NWO cards just say "Hollywood" no Hulk or Hogan.

Beautiful card.
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Old 01-05-2025, 01:52 PM   #27
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It only took 11 group break cases @ $18 per to hit this😂 ... But my one hit from Flawless is on it's way. Not earth shattering but it's a cool one(#'ed 1/10):



Off the top of my head highlights from the 16~(2 were dual breaks with NT) cases I saw opened where:

Scott Hall 1/1 Cut
Rhea 1/1 Auto
Rhea Several Patch Autos
Hulk Several Patch Autos
(2) Drew McIntyre 1/1 Autos
Several Cena/Understaker Autos
Several 1/1 Patches/Autos of people I can't recall
(1) Can't remember who 1/1 multi-diamond thingy
Tons of other great hits...

One thing that stood out to me was the lack of Roman Reigns. I never actually saw what he was priced at, but I'm going to assume $100-$150? He actually has a ton of cards in the set(save no autos...), just not in those 16~ cases. I'm old(ish) but I think there was only 1 Emerald /5 in the whole 16 cases broke. Crazy.

I'd say the product itself is stunning, while the price tag is very steep.
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Old 01-17-2025, 11:37 AM   #28
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So I think we can all agree that the price of Flawless boxes is insane. Now that the breakers will be moving on to Topps products, I wonder what the "floor" is for this set. It will always be expensive, don't get me wrong, but the singles sales in no way justify this being a $2,500 a box product. At some point retailers will have to lower it, but I don't know what their price was to obtain it in the first place so I don't know what a realistic floor is.

Even a Cody Rhodes on-card auto/patch card /15 recently sold for only $500 (I say "only" since that was no doubt the box hit), even by "all box prices are way too high" standards, Panini is setting a new level with Flawless. Only three non-1/1 cards have sold on eBay for more than a price of a box.
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Old 01-19-2025, 07:57 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by Joshi City View Post
So I think we can all agree that the price of Flawless boxes is insane. Now that the breakers will be moving on to Topps products, I wonder what the "floor" is for this set. It will always be expensive, don't get me wrong, but the singles sales in no way justify this being a $2,500 a box product. At some point retailers will have to lower it, but I don't know what their price was to obtain it in the first place so I don't know what a realistic floor is.

Even a Cody Rhodes on-card auto/patch card /15 recently sold for only $500 (I say "only" since that was no doubt the box hit), even by "all box prices are way too high" standards, Panini is setting a new level with Flawless. Only three non-1/1 cards have sold on eBay for more than a price of a box.
What do you consider the average ROI on wax these days? I’d say even at $2500 the ROI as a % is higher than most wax and will certainly be much higher than where 2025 Chrome box prices get to. The difference is the box price of course. That said if you spend $2500 on Chrome you will be in worse shape than Flawless.
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Old 01-20-2025, 12:07 AM   #30
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What do you consider the average ROI on wax these days? I’d say even at $2500 the ROI as a % is higher than most wax and will certainly be much higher than where 2025 Chrome box prices get to. The difference is the box price of course. That said if you spend $2500 on Chrome you will be in worse shape than Flawless.
I'd probably disagree with that. I'd rather have ten boxes of Chrome then one box of Flawless as its just playing the odds as both have low value cards. The ten boxes of Chrome would be 20 autographs plus lots of serial numbered cards, versus a box of Flawless with eight cards total. Sure, the highs are higher with Flawless but if you get a 'dud' box you are completely screwed and could be out $1,750 while at least with ten boxes of Chrome mathematically at least a couple will be good. Not that I think either are smart investments.

I'd love to know the average ROI on wax but if I had to pull a number out based on my experiences I'd say around 30%, a little higher if you are patient and make sets/sell base singles. I've had some good boxes but also boxes that no card was selling for more than $10. But I don't watch case breaks so others would be more qualified to estimate it. Not that we ever reached MSRP but keep in mind Flawless MSRP was $1,550. I think it would be a different conversation at retail price (still expensive, but not $1,000 in value to make up in value, selling for so far over MSRP is a factor on why I think its a particularly bad value).
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Old 01-20-2025, 12:20 AM   #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joshi City View Post
So I think we can all agree that the price of Flawless boxes is insane. Now that the breakers will be moving on to Topps products, I wonder what the "floor" is for this set. It will always be expensive, don't get me wrong, but the singles sales in no way justify this being a $2,500 a box product. At some point retailers will have to lower it, but I don't know what their price was to obtain it in the first place so I don't know what a realistic floor is.

Even a Cody Rhodes on-card auto/patch card /15 recently sold for only $500 (I say "only" since that was no doubt the box hit), even by "all box prices are way too high" standards, Panini is setting a new level with Flawless. Only three non-1/1 cards have sold on eBay for more than a price of a box.
It's all from how absurdly expensive the 1/1 gems have been getting for how little real value the scrap diamonds have
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Old 01-20-2025, 02:14 AM   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joshi City View Post
I'd probably disagree with that. I'd rather have ten boxes of Chrome then one box of Flawless as its just playing the odds as both have low value cards. The ten boxes of Chrome would be 20 autographs plus lots of serial numbered cards, versus a box of Flawless with eight cards total. Sure, the highs are higher with Flawless but if you get a 'dud' box you are completely screwed and could be out $1,750 while at least with ten boxes of Chrome mathematically at least a couple will be good. Not that I think either are smart investments.

I'd love to know the average ROI on wax but if I had to pull a number out based on my experiences I'd say around 30%, a little higher if you are patient and make sets/sell base singles. I've had some good boxes but also boxes that no card was selling for more than $10. But I don't watch case breaks so others would be more qualified to estimate it. Not that we ever reached MSRP but keep in mind Flawless MSRP was $1,550. I think it would be a different conversation at retail price (still expensive, but not $1,000 in value to make up in value, selling for so far over MSRP is a factor on why I think its a particularly bad value).
There are 10 cards in a box of flawless
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Old 01-20-2025, 06:02 PM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joshi City View Post
I'd probably disagree with that. I'd rather have ten boxes of Chrome then one box of Flawless as its just playing the odds as both have low value cards. The ten boxes of Chrome would be 20 autographs plus lots of serial numbered cards, versus a box of Flawless with eight cards total. Sure, the highs are higher with Flawless but if you get a 'dud' box you are completely screwed and could be out $1,750 while at least with ten boxes of Chrome mathematically at least a couple will be good. Not that I think either are smart investments.

I'd love to know the average ROI on wax but if I had to pull a number out based on my experiences I'd say around 30%, a little higher if you are patient and make sets/sell base singles. I've had some good boxes but also boxes that no card was selling for more than $10. But I don't watch case breaks so others would be more qualified to estimate it. Not that we ever reached MSRP but keep in mind Flawless MSRP was $1,550. I think it would be a different conversation at retail price (still expensive, but not $1,000 in value to make up in value, selling for so far over MSRP is a factor on why I think its a particularly bad value).
I'd say in general wax is about 25-30% and Flawless right now is around 50%. All 10 cards have more value than probably all but the Top 10% of Chrome numbered will have and the autos all have value more than maybe even the Top 95% at least after the 1st month or so. Flawless is the only one where people will be able to look back and buy other Topps Chrome or other sticker autos so I believe that will put a pretty low ceiling on them. You get a 1/1 in Flawless 1 in roughly every 5 boxes. At the $200 Chrome price they are probably about even with where Flawless is now, but we saw those were very hard to get. They are probably headed north of $300 maybe to $400 depending on the Rock 1/1 Auto and whatever silly bounty comes with it.
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Old 01-20-2025, 06:44 PM   #34
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Quote:
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I'd say in general wax is about 25-30% and Flawless right now is around 50%. All 10 cards have more value than probably all but the Top 10% of Chrome numbered will have and the autos all have value more than maybe even the Top 95% at least after the 1st month or so. Flawless is the only one where people will be able to look back and buy other Topps Chrome or other sticker autos so I believe that will put a pretty low ceiling on them. You get a 1/1 in Flawless 1 in roughly every 5 boxes. At the $200 Chrome price they are probably about even with where Flawless is now, but we saw those were very hard to get. They are probably headed north of $300 maybe to $400 depending on the Rock 1/1 Auto and whatever silly bounty comes with it.

Chrome is probably much higher than 50% if you took the time to sell every card which nobody wants to do. I feel like I’ve seen a lot of stinkers from Flawless and the chances of recouping the buy-in is pretty darn low.
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Old 03-26-2025, 09:30 PM   #35
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Recently picked up a Jade auto from this set:



Thought she had good chemistry with Liv, but was surprised to see Jade get pinned like that

Would love to see a rematch.
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Old 03-27-2025, 04:51 PM   #36
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Singles of this product have dried up on eBay. Guessing that most are buying for their PC’s and not selling.
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