Fanatics keeps on raising prices, yet people continue to buy....why?

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by rms13

I listen to the SCN podcast where they have a lot of shop owners and breakers on as guests and they are generally connected to a lot of them around the country. They have been talking about how Fanatics forces them to all buy a certain amount to keep their accounts. And Bowman draft wasn't as popular as hoped so lots of shops and breakers are sitting on product and most of them can't afford to be. So if the current model keeps up you'll see a lot of the smaller shops and breakers going out of business or having to change the business models to more singles and repacks. But it creates a false illusion that stuff is selling better then it is because Fanatics sells out of everything but a lot of product is still sitting unsold by shops and breakers.

Card companies were forcing shops to purchase less desirable products in order to get the more desirable products long before Fanatics showed up.

Shops and breakers sitting on old product because they refuse to drop prices to get it gone is their own fault.

[erock28]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Approximately six months after the Bitcoin bubble crashes the stock market and economy.

Let's not forget, we've had a major economic crash/crisis in EVERY Republican administration since Reagan....1989 (Bush Sr.), 2000-2002 (Bush Jr.), 2007-08 (Bush Jr.), 2020 (Trump).

The question isn't if we're going to have another one....the question is when....

Not to get political, but to predict economic crash/crisis by party is pretty pathetic when you ignore root causes. The housing crisis and market crashing in 2008 was largely due to banking deregulation instituted by the other party in the late 90's. The economy was booming through 2019 when COVID hit in March 2020. Unemployment was in steady decline in Trumps first term (down over a full point from Jan 17 to Feb 20), but the other side always screams 14.8%!!!, which was after forced shutdowns. It has since risen in the next term, currently a full point higher than it was in Feb 2020. No one could have stopped the worldwide shutdown. And no one knows what the next four years will bring.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by rms13

I listen to the SCN podcast where they have a lot of shop owners and breakers on as guests and they are generally connected to a lot of them around the country. They have been talking about how Fanatics forces them to all buy a certain amount to keep their accounts. And Bowman draft wasn't as popular as hoped so lots of shops and breakers are sitting on product and most of them can't afford to be. So if the current model keeps up you'll see a lot of the smaller shops and breakers going out of business or having to change the business models to more singles and repacks. But it creates a false illusion that stuff is selling better then it is because Fanatics sells out of everything but a lot of product is still sitting unsold by shops and breakers.

That’s a great sign that the end consumers are finally drawing a line. What’s preventing the shops and breakers from dumping wax to recoupe some money? They make enough of a killing on the good products to balance out the bad products. I love to hear this.

[bub838]

Originally Posted by rms13

I listen to the SCN podcast where they have a lot of shop owners and breakers on as guests and they are generally connected to a lot of them around the country. They have been talking about how Fanatics forces them to all buy a certain amount to keep their accounts. And Bowman draft wasn't as popular as hoped so lots of shops and breakers are sitting on product and most of them can't afford to be. So if the current model keeps up you'll see a lot of the smaller shops and breakers going out of business or having to change the business models to more singles and repacks. But it creates a false illusion that stuff is selling better then it is because Fanatics sells out of everything but a lot of product is still sitting unsold by shops and breakers.

Allocations exist to benefit the manufacturer/distributor. They aren't anything new and shouldn't be surprising to any LCS/Breaker. The writing has been on the wall for a while now how Fanatics was going to treat them. They don't care if the small guys go out of business.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by bub838

Allocations exist to benefit the manufacturer/distributor. They aren't anything new and shouldn't be surprising to any LCS/Breaker. The writing has been on the wall for a while now how Fanatics was going to treat them. They don't care if the small guys go out of business.

It’s a great thing for the middlemen flipper bois to get squeezed - they have no role in the hobby anyways.

[Promethius88]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

That’s a great sign that the end consumers are finally drawing a line. What’s preventing the shops and breakers from dumping wax to recoupe some money? They make enough of a killing on the good products to balance out the bad products. I love to hear this.

This just isn't true. They are allocated much smaller amounts of the "good stuff" than ever and it doesn't really make up for the losses they have to take on all of the other crap stuff they are forced to buy just to get a taste of the good stuff.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by Promethius88

This just isn't true. They are allocated much smaller amounts of the "good stuff" than ever and it doesn't really make up for the losses they have to take on all of the other crap stuff they are forced to buy just to get a taste of the good stuff.

Most dealers survived by this model in the late 90’s and early 2000’s.

As referred to above, it is their choice not to take a loss, and they will go down with the ship if they don’t.

The days of 300% profit is gone - better get used to it.

Middlemen nowadays will need to get used to 10-15% profit margins overall or get out.

I can’t see how box flipper bois will want to exist in this environment as the gainz are simply not worth the dopamine high of the flip.

Fortunately, our fast food restaurants will be better staffed again.

[bub838]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

That’s a great sign that the end consumers are finally drawing a line. What’s preventing the shops and breakers from dumping wax to recoupe some money?

Hubris

They make enough of a killing on the good products to balance out the bad products. I love to hear this.

That would be true if they could get enough of the good products, but they don't anymore.

[Promethius88]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Most dealers survived by this model in the late 90’s and early 2000’s.

As referred to above, it is their choice not to take a loss, and they will go down with the ship if they don’t.

The days of 300% profit is gone - better get used to it.

Middlemen nowadays will need to get used to 10-15% profit margins overall or get out.

I can’t see how box flipper bois will want to exist in this environment as the gainz are simply not worth the dopamine high of the flip.

Fortunately, our fast food restaurants will be better staffed again.

I know that shop I have been going to has been in business for 20+ years. Prior to 2020 it they would be shipped cases of NT(for example) and they couldn't move them for cost at release so they had to sit on them. But that was easier at say $400/box.
Now, the allocations are reduced to just a box or two of the good stuff and then told "if you buy more of the crap, you will get higher allocations". So you spend $30k on a bunch of crap that you are sure to lose money on to get an extra box that will make you $1k. Can't sustain like that.

It's not a matter of shops not willing to sell products for a loss from time to time. It's asking them to sell everything for a loss. Not really the best business model.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by bub838

Hubris



That would be true if they could get enough of the good products, but they don't anymore.

For example, dealers are forced to take 10 cases of heritage high at $87/box. They could dump boxes at $77/box and take a $1200 hit on the ten cases of product.

However, the $2000 they make off the one sealed case of dynasty they get yields them a net $800 for both products. They are still profitable, but the margins are tiny for the money spent

They better get used to it or get out.

These are all great signs for the end consumer like us. The breaker products will still be expensive, but the cheaper and Black Friday products will be more than affordable.

That’s a win/win for everyone but the box flipper bois.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by Promethius88

I know that shop I have been going to has been in business for 20+ years. Prior to 2020 it they would be shipped cases of NT(for example) and they couldn't move them for cost at release so they had to sit on them. But that was easier at say $400/box.
Now, the allocations are reduced to just a box or two of the good stuff and then told "if you buy more of the crap, you will get higher allocations". So you spend $30k on a bunch of crap that you are sure to lose money on to get an extra box that will make you $1k. Can't sustain like that.

It's not a matter of shops not willing to sell products for a loss from time to time. It's asking them to sell everything for a loss. Not really the best business model.

Many shops/dealers have made a killing since the pandemic started. It will be payback time in the near future, so really no sympathy for them. Overall many are set financially.

Best thing for us is that I see signs of a lower floor for wax prices for us in the future, at least for the products the breakers don’t want.

[Twalk1975]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Well, it’s been five years since the pandemic started and the pumper and dumpers are all but extinct now, especially from these boards. Most all who remain here are hardcore hobbyists.

Fanatics has done an excellent job to ensure that the box flipper bois are a dying breed and that trend will continue. Many still lurk here but are mere shells of their previous selves.

Most all that is left propping up the high box prices is the breaker culture and that will persist as long as the economy is rolling - stocks/crypto/real estate is still near all time highs and still getting higher so the degenerate money is still there.

Most everyone who started during the pandemic have never seen a recession in this country, heck, most millennials have never had to deal with it personally as they’ve always depended on their parents to get them through troubled times. When the recession happens, that’s when we see the house of cards collapse.

But the hardcore guys here will still be around to scoop up the lows.

No mention of drug dealers, poker players, and people that deal in exotic car parts. Are they still helping keep box prices high?

[nowiamsad]

I may be in the minority but IMO Topps was growing stale and Fanatics has done a lot of great sets/inserts/etc since they took over. Perhaps I’ll eat my words but at the moment I like what they’re doing.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by Promethius88

This just isn't true. They are allocated much smaller amounts of the "good stuff" than ever and it doesn't really make up for the losses they have to take on all of the other crap stuff they are forced to buy just to get a taste of the good stuff.

They aren't being forced to buy cases of old product to get the new product. It's more of you have to buy X number of cases of the "bad stuff" at its release in order to buy Y number of cases of the "good stuff" at its release.

And it was that way before Fanatics showed up.

[Poorboy]

Originally Posted by nowiamsad

I may be in the minority but IMO Topps was growing stale and Fanatics has done a lot of great sets/inserts/etc since they took over. Perhaps I’ll eat my words but at the moment I like what they’re doing.

They are innovative for sure
Tacofractors ?

[rms13]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Many shops/dealers have made a killing since the pandemic started. It will be payback time in the near future, so really no sympathy for them. Overall many are set financially.



Best thing for us is that I see signs of a lower floor for wax prices for us in the future, at least for the products the breakers don’t want.

The shops that are likely to disappear are ones that opened during or after the pandemic. They weren't around to cash in and now they're all overextended. I image the old shops which are generally the worst ones all have relatively low overhead and made enough during the pandemic to keep them going for a long time.

[dodgerfanjohn]

Originally Posted by NYRE2PECT

SGV forever!

Born and raised in West Covina, 818, baby.

...and more to your point, there is a very good reason that I live in Texas now - basically had zero hope of every owning my own home there and this was in 2007!

Went to Schurr High School in Montebello graduated 1990, graduated Cal Poly Pomona in 1995. There were LOTS of stop offs at Frank and Sons.

Have to leave CA to buy a house. Crazy, but I retire in about 5 years....at 57...and can easily afford a very nice home in retirement in LV, but Id struggle to buy a modest home in a marginal area here in LA, even while working.

[dodgerfanjohn]

Originally Posted by spuds1961

Dodgerfanjohn that was a good read and very interesting. There are so many different circumstances between the years and I am actually enjoying reading this thread as there are lots of points to discuss.

Thanks for the good words spuds.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by rms13

The shops that are likely to disappear are ones that opened during or after the pandemic. They weren't around to cash in and now they're all overextended. I image the old shops which are generally the worst ones all have relatively low overhead and made enough during the pandemic to keep them going for a long time.

As per usual, the Johnny come latelys always get hosed.

They got greedy and got bitten in the rear as they were late to the gold rush train.

All except the shops that act as fronts for breakers, that is.

[boxbuster7]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Considering PWCC fell apart because two of the biggest modern hobby whales got their loans called, I’d be worried about the finances of the hobby at large.

which two whales?

[ThoseBackPages]

the shops that do not bend the knee will struggle to stay open

[Promethius88]

Originally Posted by whitmm

They aren't being forced to buy cases of old product to get the new product. It's more of you have to buy X number of cases of the "bad stuff" at its release in order to buy Y number of cases of the "good stuff" at its release.

And it was that way before Fanatics showed up.

Maybe Fanatics isn't making them but at least one of the big distributors does. That's the game they have played for a long time and it's even worse now. Doesn't matter if you spend $30-50k a week. If they want to give you 2 boxes of Prizm or Triple Threads or whatever, that's what you get. Of course, they will have loads of it on their buy sheet the next week that you can buy at a retail price.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by Promethius88

Maybe Fanatics isn't making them but at least one of the big distributors does. That's the game they have played for a long time and it's even worse now. Doesn't matter if you spend $30-50k a week. If they want to give you 2 boxes of Prizm or Triple Threads or whatever, that's what you get. Of course, they will have loads of it on their buy sheet the next week that you can buy at a retail price.

Is there really any sympathy left for box flipper bois in this new environment?

I was told by them to adapt or go away.

Fortunately I have not needed to change a thing.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Considering PWCC fell apart because two of the biggest modern hobby whales got their loans called, I’d be worried about the finances of the hobby at large.

This is like saying we should be worried about the finances of MLB at large because the Padres needed a loan to cover payroll a couple years ago.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by Promethius88

Maybe Fanatics isn't making them but at least one of the big distributors does. That's the game they have played for a long time and it's even worse now. Doesn't matter if you spend $30-50k a week. If they want to give you 2 boxes of Prizm or Triple Threads or whatever, that's what you get. Of course, they will have loads of it on their buy sheet the next week that you can buy at a retail price.

Which one? Not sure why you're trying to protect a distributor.

A distributor isn't Fanatics.

Can you give an actual example of them having to do this? Your comment here seems to be talking about allocation issues and not being forced to buy old product in order to get new product.

And not trying to be mean, but all I read here is your LCS refuses to bend the knee and now they are paying the price.