Fanatics keeps on raising prices, yet people continue to buy....why?

[jkampis]

Originally Posted by ScooterD

What about microwaves and VCRs?

In what stores are you buying VCRs?

[Twalk1975]

Originally Posted by Patsfan

So how many years do we think it will take for A LOT of "collectors" to have to file bankruptcy because they overextended themselves on these products that don't provide nearly the return they invested?

We are entering at least year four of predictions for a mass exodus due to credit card bills, student loan payments resuming, etc. There was even a thread to discuss the effects of prolonged $10 plus gas and a deep recession a few years ago.

[jkampis]

Originally Posted by dodgerfanjohn

So…..

I’m gonna go with a small history lesson about Los Angeles suburbs and it’s relative here.

I grew up as a kid in the 70’s and 80’s in the San Gabriel Valley. It goes from about 6 miles east of Downtown Los Angeles to about 30 miles out. It’s a huge place basically stretching from Monterey Park out to Walnut and from Montebello or so out to Pasadena. It’s a huge ethnic mix with Hispanic being the largest ethnic group then probably Asian and Caucasian. It’s the largest Asian population in the country and perhaps the largest Asian population in the world outside Asia. I could only find US census numbers for 2000 (1.5 million population). I’d guess currently there are 2 million people living there. Keep in mind this is only one of many 1 million plus population bases in the Los Angeles metro area (total pop around 20 million, with 10 million in LA county, 3.5 million in neighboring Orange County, and I dunno how many dirt people in SB and Riverside Counties.

All this to say that the SGV was collector central for the nation in the late 80’s and early 90’s. By 1991 there were about 20+ card shops within a 15 minute drive of my house. Not to mention Frank an Sons, the largest continually running collectible show in the nation. Seriously, they started once a week in a trucking warehouse in City of Industry with mostly trading cards and now has evolved into they bought a SAMs Club warehouse and run the show every Wednesday night and Saturday and Sunday, with far more focus nowdays on toys and other collectibles.

So another dynamic about SGV. Due to many large homes and due to very large immigrant populations, by the early 80’s, multi family and/or multi generational homes were a real thing. One of the houses on the small cul de sac I grew up on had 3 families of immigrants from Hong Kong living in it starting around 1981. Now, due to rents, housing prices(absurd…my parents sold their 1800 sq ft 3 bd 2ba home in 2002 for $218k, now it would sell over $900k). So kids stay living at home despite making very healthy incomes, even in the very low $100k range. This is not uncommon at all as there are several employees where I work who are in their 20’s and 30’s who still live with parents despite a starting salary in the mid $40kish range and many making as much as $80-90k. And they likely will never move out unless they get married and maybe not even then.

I should note, the SGV also has very wealthy communities, including Bradbury, one of the richest neighborhoods in the nation(owner of In N Out lives there), San Marino, parts of Pasadena, and La Canada(where Shohei lives). But even the more modest locations have people with lots of money.

Now think about it. You live at home. You have zero hope of ever buying a home. You will inherit your paid off parents home as well as their original tax basis(yay prop 13). And you have tens of thousands in disposable take home income. Your $80k a year is around $60k after taxes and deduction. You don’t pay for the house, you may not pay for groceries. Cars run forever. Even if they don’t you can get a decent used car with low milleage for $15-25k. Car insurance stinks, but other than car and insurance, what are you paying for? And oh yeah, you grew up with instant gratification at Frank and Sons. What is exactly stopping these people from buying whatever they please? From taking vacation whenever wherever(the 15 from LA to LV has become infinitely more crowded than it ever was in the past.)

What we( Gen X) grew up with was kind of wondrous. My Grandparents were greatest generation and immigrated to the US under dire circumstances in post WWI Germany and pre Bolshevik Russia. They lived as young adults through the Great Depression and fought in WW2. My parents were tail end Silent Generation. They were frugal and personally conservative. My dad was the first well educated person I’m not only his family, but in the entire religion/ethnic enclave. Yet despite this(he was literally a rocket scientist) and a good income, he worked on his own cars, he made me and my brother mow the lawn, take out the trash, work on the yard and the house, took us camping, fishing, and hunting. And of course to Dodgers games. But the different…we had an Atari 2600 when I was 8 years old at the end of 1980 and a Commodore 64 by the time I started high school in 1986. It’s curious, but living in that time…bridging the gap between manual everything and modern technology…and the way I grew up, the values I obtained. I still see it in some immigrant families. Not so much everyone else. Kids born after about 1990 grew up differently.

Anyway, new cards are expensive. I like collecting and will continue to do so. Chasing expensive wax is foreign to me as it is to others in this thread.but it exists and the financial technological, and cultural changes that have occurred during the past few decades contribute greatly to that. I cited just one LA suburb but the same dynamic exists all over LA, and repeats itself throughout large metro areas in the US, of which there are plenty. I mean I know of two 4 generation households in Las Vegas. Things are different now and I can’t blame Fanatics for making a profit.

So basically, dunderheaded California economic policy has created a situation where many young people can’t afford to move away from home, but have enough income to buy wax? Is that the TL DR summary?

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by Patsfan

So how many years do we think it will take for A LOT of "collectors" to have to file bankruptcy because they overextended themselves on these products that don't provide nearly the return they invested?

It's not the popular assumption around here, but I would venture to say it is the same rate bankruptcy is filed across the general population. The people who are bad with money and impulse control are going to find something to rack up debt regardless. And there are just as many collectors who have the money to spend and can responsibly spend it on cards without going into debt. I think people make too many assumptions about collectors. There are all kinds, and likely mirror the general population, economically speaking. Not nearly as many people are racking up debt in the hobby as people here seem to believe.

[Bosoxfan5990]

Originally Posted by PuddleMonkey

My piper is gonna show up with a trident.

[Twalk1975]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

It's not the popular assumption around here, but I would venture to say it is the same rate bankruptcy is filed across the general population. The people who are bad with money and impulse control are going to find something to rack up debt regardless. And there are just as many collectors who have the money to spend and can responsibly spend it on cards without going into debt. I think people make too many assumptions about collectors. There are all kinds, and likely mirror the general population, economically speaking. Not nearly as many people are racking up debt in the hobby as people here seem to believe.

I would guess that you're closer to being right than most, but if you walk through the average card show, the hobby doesn't really mirror the general population.

[KhalDrogo]

Considering PWCC fell apart because two of the biggest modern hobby whales got their loans called, I’d be worried about the finances of the hobby at large.

[dodgerfanjohn]

Originally Posted by jkampis

So basically, dunderheaded California economic policy has created a situation where many young people can’t afford to move away from home, but have enough income to buy wax? Is that the TL DR summary?

I mean it’s not just California. New York City was here 30 years ago. Throw in Portland, Seattle, the entire big city Northeast, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Chicago(thanks insane property tax) and I’m sure there’s some money being made with perhaps different dynamics in other huge cities.

One thing for sure about socal, it’s very very hard to find retail on the shelf….

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by Twalk1975

I would guess that you're closer to being right than most, but if you walk through the average card show, the hobby doesn't really mirror the general population.

Yeah, that's why I was careful to qualify it as "economically speaking." The demographics aren't a cross section of society. But the economics are. All walks of life, and financial situations. Some in over their heads, and many just enjoying a hobby they can afford. There is a debt problem across the board in our society. If anything, I'd assume there is less debt among sports card hobbyists than the rest of society.

[Big35Hurt]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Yeah, that's why I was careful to qualify it as "economically speaking." The demographics aren't a cross section of society. But the economics are. All walks of life, and financial situations. Some in over their heads, and many just enjoying a hobby they can afford. There is a debt problem across the board in our society. If anything, I'd assume there is less debt among sports card hobbyists than the rest of society.

Curious as to what makes you think this? Not saying you're right or wrong. I personally feel like it would be the opposite. People spending hundreds or thousands of dollars to bust wax or to get certain PC cards and using their credit cards due to FOMO. The hobby is quite addicting with people wanting to get their fixes now even if it means going into debt.

[base set]

Originally Posted by Twalk1975

We are entering at least year four of predictions for a mass exodus due to credit card bills, student loan payments resuming, etc. There was even a thread to discuss the effects of prolonged $10 plus gas and a deep recession a few years ago.

Here, it’s more like year 15, or 16


I hope the winds don’t blow your way today, dodgerfan john

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Twalk1975

We are entering at least year four of predictions for a mass exodus due to credit card bills, student loan payments resuming, etc. There was even a thread to discuss the effects of prolonged $10 plus gas and a deep recession a few years ago.

The 10 year treasury auction just drew the highest yield since 2007. Eventually these rates will take a meaningful toll on companies. Once unemployment starts to snowball higher, you can expect the card market to take another hit. The ending of WFH is a convenient way to force terminations without looking bad.

[Twalk1975]

Originally Posted by Big35Hurt

Curious as to what makes you think this? Not saying you're right or wrong. I personally feel like it would be the opposite. People spending hundreds or thousands of dollars to bust wax or to get certain PC cards and using their credit cards due to FOMO. The hobby is quite addicting with people wanting to get their fixes now even if it means going into debt.

I think he is probably right. No one I know uses their credit card to fund hobby purchases without paying it off each month. Then again, I also don't actually know any people who are spending money on breaks, so maybe my perceptions of the hobby are off.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by Big35Hurt

Curious as to what makes you think this? Not saying you're right or wrong. I personally feel like it would be the opposite. People spending hundreds or thousands of dollars to bust wax or to get certain PC cards and using their credit cards due to FOMO. The hobby is quite addicting with people wanting to get their fixes now even if it means going into debt.

You are looking at it from the wrong angle. Instead of looking at reasons some hobbyists might be in debt, look at the general public. The percentage of americans carrying credit card debt is astronomical. People engaged in a hobby typically have discretionary income. That automatically puts them at an advantage over society as a whole when it comes to debt. A lot of the general population lives paycheck to paycheck and doesn't have the discretionary income to be a part of a hobby like sports card collecting. So it would stand to reason that even though some members of the hobby go into debt because of their impulse control and poor financial choices, most don't. While most people in the rest of society are in debt for various reasons.

[Twalk1975]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

The 10 year treasury auction just drew the highest yield since 2007. Eventually these rates will take a meaningful toll on companies. Once unemployment starts to snowball higher, you can expect the card market to take another hit. The ending of WFH is a convenient way to force terminations without looking bad.

It has been taking hit after hit for several years now. Big price declines pretty much across the board. Plus we also got the occasional curveball with thebWander, Tatis, and Trout situations.

[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by dodgerfanjohn

So…..

I’m gonna go with a small history lesson about Los Angeles suburbs and it’s relative here.

I grew up as a kid in the 70’s and 80’s in the San Gabriel Valley. It goes from about 6 miles east of Downtown Los Angeles to about 30 miles out. It’s a huge place basically stretching from Monterey Park out to Walnut and from Montebello or so out to Pasadena. It’s a huge ethnic mix with Hispanic being the largest ethnic group then probably Asian and Caucasian. It’s the largest Asian population in the country and perhaps the largest Asian population in the world outside Asia. I could only find US census numbers for 2000 (1.5 million population). I’d guess currently there are 2 million people living there. Keep in mind this is only one of many 1 million plus population bases in the Los Angeles metro area (total pop around 20 million, with 10 million in LA county, 3.5 million in neighboring Orange County, and I dunno how many dirt people in SB and Riverside Counties.

SGV forever!

Born and raised in West Covina, 818, baby.

...and more to your point, there is a very good reason that I live in Texas now - basically had zero hope of every owning my own home there and this was in 2007!

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Twalk1975

It has been taking hit after hit for several years now. Big price declines pretty much across the board. Plus we also got the occasional curveball with thebWander, Tatis, and Trout situations.

The collapse of a fake market is quite different than the collapse of a thriving market.

[spuds1961]

Dodgerfanjohn that was a good read and very interesting. There are so many different circumstances between the years and I am actually enjoying reading this thread as there are lots of points to discuss.

[spuds1961]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

The collapse of a fake market is quite different than the collapse of a thriving market.

Yes Covid spurred a spike in the hobby as everybody was looking for cards but the correction from that is still taking place. New blood came into the hobby but I wonder how many are still collecting now, not criticizing or complaining as it gave the hobby a shot in the arm that was needed but how many slabbed cards of minimal rookies does one really need. My question is after the correction will the hobby be stronger or weaker.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by Twalk1975

I think he is probably right. No one I know uses their credit card to fund hobby purchases without paying it off each month. Then again, I also don't actually know any people who are spending money on breaks, so maybe my perceptions of the hobby are off.

There are a lot of people who hate breaks and those that participate and have started the rumor that everyone doing them is a degenerate gambler that is spending more money than they can afford.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by spuds1961

Yes Covid spurred a spike in the hobby as everybody was looking for cards but the correction from that is still taking place. New blood came into the hobby but I wonder how many are still collecting now, not criticizing or complaining as it gave the hobby a shot in the arm that was needed but how many slabbed cards of minimal rookies does one really need. My question is after the correction will the hobby be stronger or weaker.

Well, it’s been five years since the pandemic started and the pumper and dumpers are all but extinct now, especially from these boards. Most all who remain here are hardcore hobbyists.

Fanatics has done an excellent job to ensure that the box flipper bois are a dying breed and that trend will continue. Many still lurk here but are mere shells of their previous selves.

Most all that is left propping up the high box prices is the breaker culture and that will persist as long as the economy is rolling - stocks/crypto/real estate is still near all time highs and still getting higher so the degenerate money is still there.

Most everyone who started during the pandemic have never seen a recession in this country, heck, most millennials have never had to deal with it personally as they’ve always depended on their parents to get them through troubled times. When the recession happens, that’s when we see the house of cards collapse.

But the hardcore guys here will still be around to scoop up the lows.

[jjcan]

Anyway, from reading this.

1. How many boxes/cases of Topps Definitive is everyone Buying?

2. Are you using your credit card? Paying off Right away?

3. Mad That the price is so Expensive but still buying?

4. Wish it was Cheaper, like the good days but want to make sure that the printing press, delivery and economy get paid their reasonable wages? So spread the wealth, it is "hobby" money and my lazy kids are going to inherit the house anyway. Crack that box, or Flip it either way they get the house.

5. Fanatics are jerks, but have you seen the Wild Card junk lately.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by Patsfan

So how many years do we think it will take for A LOT of "collectors" to have to file bankruptcy because they overextended themselves on these products that don't provide nearly the return they invested?

Approximately six months after the Bitcoin bubble crashes the stock market and economy.

Let's not forget, we've had a major economic crash/crisis in EVERY Republican administration since Reagan....1989 (Bush Sr.), 2000-2002 (Bush Jr.), 2007-08 (Bush Jr.), 2020 (Trump).

The question isn't if we're going to have another one....the question is when....

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by spuds1961

No II am not complaining I was pointing out how the landscape changed back then where kids would rather spend their money on things that gave them more enjoyment. And you want to know why Pokémon is so expensive now, those same kids have grown up and they are still into Pokémon cards just like us kids in the 70’s grew up and were still into baseball cards. Every hobby is much more expensive so it would only stand to reason that baseball would be the same way. I never complained that I was out priced out of the hobby just said I had to change the way I collect but I guess that’s complaining nowadays. Just adding you might want to check your timeline of when baseball cards started climbing in price.

Climbing in prices is different than the explosion in increases over the last 5ish years. Pre-Covid, prices were still generally affordable for most products.

Kids weren't getting away from sports cards because of the rising prices. It was video games becoming more prevalent. It was Pokemon bursting on to the scene. It was less and less of the neighborhood baseball games. It was baseball viewer declining before the strike. Kids and adults weren't interested in committing 3+ hours to watching a boring baseball game 150 nights a year.

I was a kid during the 90s, I can tell you from my experience that I didn't get out because I was getting priced out. It was because my LCS closed down.

As you even noted, you saw this directly. Why does your son not care about sports cards? What reason, other than money, would he want to hold on to your stash of cardboard? You made a comment about you don't treat yourself to a box anymore because there's no value? That sounds like you are talking monetary value.

The reason vintage can be worth so much is because of those millionaires getting into cards. Nobody cares about the 52 Mantle if it wasn't breaking all kinds of sales records.

Pokemon is not popular just because it's "affordable." It's popular because it's a game that people actually play. There is a much larger social aspect to it than baseball cards. LCS are packed with people playing Pokemon. People are buying cards to make their decks better, not to stick that 1/1 card into their personal collection locked in a safe at home. My LCS a weekly night for Magic, a weekly night for YuGiOh, and a weekly night for Pokemon. There's a night for Lorcana.

[rms13]

I listen to the SCN podcast where they have a lot of shop owners and breakers on as guests and they are generally connected to a lot of them around the country. They have been talking about how Fanatics forces them to all buy a certain amount to keep their accounts. And Bowman draft wasn't as popular as hoped so lots of shops and breakers are sitting on product and most of them can't afford to be. So if the current model keeps up you'll see a lot of the smaller shops and breakers going out of business or having to change the business models to more singles and repacks. But it creates a false illusion that stuff is selling better then it is because Fanatics sells out of everything but a lot of product is still sitting unsold by shops and breakers.