2024 NFL MVP Odds

[JosieD]

According to Tony Romo, Barkley has a great shot. That's all I need to know.

[cdub6238]

Originally Posted by Onepocketj

I'm not sure why you think it's so personal or that I'm only speaking of you. I don't even know who you are. You said I "started this back and forth" when I was simply speaking to someone else about the fact that Saquon had just dropped from +450 to +220.

I never stated you said that Allen had it locked up - that was people in the other thread. I said to think that was asinine which it is.

I never said it was personal...and yes that's the quote that started it...it was the ending

Game won't help his case much blah blah

So yeah, I started piling on every time the odds went up...

Then you posted and said we'll it's just recency bias and should be corrected.. which is an odd argument to make, seeing as Saqoun only had 100 yards and a td in the game right before and that's when his odds improved...so...

Anyways...again as I said..Saqoun definitely still has a strong shot; odds don't really mean much..

But it's definitely a 2 person race

[kluke84]

Originally Posted by cdub6238

I never said it was personal...and yes that's the quote that started it...it was the ending

Game won't help his case much blah blah

So yeah, I started piling on every time the odds went up...

Then you posted and said we'll it's just recency bias and should be corrected.. which is an odd argument to make, seeing as Saqoun only had 100 yards and a td in the game right before and that's when his odds improved...so...

Anyways...again as I said..Saqoun definitely still has a strong shot; odds don't really mean much..

But it's definitely a 2 person race

It definitely is a 2 person race

[Bosoxfan5990]

Wow, this really went off the rails after I went to bed.

[2010GBPackers]

Josh Allen - 10-2 record after his team was gutted over the off-season on both sides of the ball (lost 6 of 8 team captains from last season), has good/great individual stats, plus the highlight packet to go with it.

Saquon Barkley - 10-2 record after joining a Super Bowl roster, has great individual stats, plus the highlight packet to go with it.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by 2010GBPackers

Josh Allen - 10-2 record after his team was gutted over the off-season on both sides of the ball (lost 6 of 8 team captains from last season), has good/great individual stats, plus the highlight packet to go with it.

Saquon Barkley - 10-2 record after joining a Super Bowl roster, has great individual stats, plus the highlight packet to go with it.

The MVP will likely be decided for Allen on Dec 15 when the Bills play the Lions.... fair or not.

A win and a good performance will likely stick in voters' mind even more than it should either way.

[Scottish Punk]

Originally Posted by tjforce

The MVP will likely be decided for Allen on Dec 15 when the Bills play the Lions.... fair or not.

A win and a good performance will likely stick in voters' mind even more than it should either way.

I can see that. I also think voters are going to be looking for an excuse not to vote for Lamar. He has won two and last one was a year ago. It is not fair, but humans are making the pick.

[2010GBPackers]

Originally Posted by tjforce

The MVP will likely be decided for Allen on Dec 15 when the Bills play the Lions.... fair or not.

A win and a good performance will likely stick in voters' mind even more than it should either way.

Perhaps. Saquon plays the Steelers the same day, though, so if he wants the MVP, he needs to have a big game that day as well.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Scottish Punk

I can see that. I also think voters are going to be looking for an excuse not to vote for Lamar. He has won two and last one was a year ago. It is not fair, but humans are making the pick.

The excuse for not voting Lamar is that the team is 8-5.

With Henry back there with him, it's very reasonable to think "There are quite a few QBs who could have led this team to an 8-5 or better record this year".

[Onepocketj]

Unless something drastic happens, it looks like it's a two horse race at this point.
A lot of money came in on Allen and Saquon.

Allen -225
Saquon +350
Lamar +900
Goff +1200

No one else even in the picture.
My biggest surprise is Henry is at +15000 which seems crazy considering how he could have a monster game at any time and be back in the conversation. Not saying he'll win but he shouldn't be that long IMO.

[Mikeh6480]

Originally Posted by Onepocketj

Unless something drastic happens, it looks like it's a two horse race at this point.
A lot of money came in on Allen and Saquon.

Allen -225
Saquon +350
Lamar +900
Goff +1200

No one else even in the picture.
My biggest surprise is Henry is at +15000 which seems crazy considering how he could have a monster game at any time and be back in the conversation. Not saying he'll win but he shouldn't be that long IMO.

Back to the stat of the Ravens being 8-5 and not a division winner. As a Ravens fan no MVP should win it amd not atleast win their division.

[BGT Masters]

Originally Posted by tjforce

The excuse for not voting Lamar is that the team is 8-5.

With Henry back there with him, it's very reasonable to think "There are quite a few QBs who could have led this team to an 8-5 or better record this year".

This is a reasonable take. When pointing out last season stats for Lamar and Allen people were saying Lamar's team was 13-3 and that factored in, which it does. However this year it seems some people are using it against Allen this year.

Also having a worse record then last year even with the addition of Henry who is on pace for 1800+ can't help.

Originally Posted by Onepocketj

Unless something drastic happens, it looks like it's a two horse race at this point.
A lot of money came in on Allen and Saquon.

Allen -225
Saquon +350
Lamar +900
Goff +1200

No one else even in the picture.
My biggest surprise is Henry is at +15000 which seems crazy considering how he could have a monster game at any time and be back in the conversation. Not saying he'll win but he shouldn't be that long IMO.

Agreed. Henry isn't likely to win it, but he is more than capable of having a monster game or two and getting 2000 yards himself.

[ninjacookies]

Was able to lock in a few shares of 26 at +360 last night on Stake.

Almost 4 to 1 on a guy likely poised to accrue 2400+ yards from scrimmage this season and 17/18 or more tuddies is decent value.

Looking at their remaining schedule (w/exception of the Steelers) combined with the fact he's tallied multiple games this year with over 150 rush yards, it's not completely out of the realm of possibility that he eclipses 2k with ease with a decent bit more to pad.

What I found interesting is that Saquon has already tied AP's TD totals through only 12 games.



I think a major point of consideration is the possibility of either or both top MVP candidates resting week 18 due to seedings being locked.

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by Onepocketj

I have never backtracked. I said the odds will correct because that's my opinion. Maybe they won't. I was simply stating the odds to someone else.

Here are the facts - Lamar has been between #1 and #3 in the MVP voting for the entire year. So by your admission, after the bye week, he will still be ahead of Allen in every category. And yet Allen is ahead of him in MVP voting and the only logical reason is voter fatigue (edit. unless voters feel Henry and Lamar cancel each other out by making it tougher on defenses which is also a possibility).

In an off year for QB's like this, I would like to see a RB, receiver or defensive player win the MVP. I think the main two in that category would be Henry or Saquon and actually had Henry in the lead until he slowed down a few weeks ago. The same could happen to Saquon - wouldn't surprise me at all. But to act like Allen locked up the MVP with a 148 yard passing game is, in your words, asinine.

Oh, I'm sorry Allen doesn't have better stats cause he just blowing teams up left and right and sit in the 4th quarter. He's not mahomes you know, who always let bad teams hang with them till the end so he can continues to statpad

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Was able to lock in a few shares of 26 at +360 last night on Stake.

Almost 4 to 1 on a guy likely poised to accrue 2400+ yards from scrimmage this season and 17/18 or more tuddies is decent value.

Looking at their remaining schedule (w/exception of the Steelers) combined with the fact he's tallied multiple games this year with over 150 rush yards, it's not completely out of the realm of possibility that he eclipses 2k with ease with a decent bit more to pad.

What I found interesting is that Saquon has already tied AP's TD totals through only 12 games.



I think a major point of consideration is the possibility of either or both top MVP candidates resting week 18 due to seedings being locked.

Dickerson didnt even win the MVP when he broke that record. Dan Marino did, you're just lighting money on fire betting on RB for QB award

[EBCollectibles]

Originally Posted by Scottish Punk

I can see that. I also think voters are going to be looking for an excuse not to vote for Lamar. He has won two and last one was a year ago. It is not fair, but humans are making the pick.

Lamar is a choke artist. Lamar who? You mean Jesse Jackson?

[2dueces]

Originally Posted by 2010GBPackers

Josh Allen - 10-2 record after his team was gutted over the off-season on both sides of the ball (lost 6 of 8 team captains from last season), has good/great individual stats, plus the highlight packet to go with it.

Saquon Barkley - 10-2 record after joining a Super Bowl roster, has great individual stats, plus the highlight packet to go with it.

Eagles were 10-2 last season w/o Barkley
Eagles are 10-2 this year.

Is he great? Absolutely. Are the Bills 10-2 w/o Allen?

MVP might not have the best stats but who’s more valuable to the record of their team.
Lamar didn’t have incredible stats last year but the team was 15-2

[Scottish Punk]

Originally Posted by 2dueces

Eagles were 10-2 last season w/o Barkley
Eagles are 10-2 this year.

Is he great? Absolutely. Are the Bills 10-2 w/o Allen?

MVP might not have the best stats but who’s more valuable to the record of their team.
Lamar didn’t have incredible stats last year but the team was 15-2

This is the same argument that happens in each sport for MVP. There isn't a "right" answer, it is just how you view the MVP award. Do you give to the best player on the team with the best record or somebody having a great statistical season? NFL kind of has been the QB on a team with the best record for the most part. I would love Barkley to get it, but he needs to do something crazy like 2000 yards and lead in league in TDs. Still possible, of course.

[jplarson]

Originally Posted by EBCollectibles

Lamar is a choke artist. Lamar who? You mean Jesse Jackson?

Would have made more sense to say Lamar Smith as the rhetorical answer to your 'Lamar who?' question. You have undercut your not knowing who Lamar is by suggesting someone who shares his last name. By using Lamar Smith, at least you named another football player and could keep up appearances of not knowing who a two-time MVP is.

0/10, please keep workshopping. PM me if you need ideas.

[Above the Rim]

D. Henry didn't even win MVP back when it was only a 16 game season and he had over 2,000 yards. Allen pretty safe bet here.

[mc1]

Originally Posted by Delta5

Dickerson didnt even win the MVP when he broke that record. Dan Marino did, you're just lighting money on fire betting on RB for QB award

LA Rams were 10-6. Marino had 48 pass TD and over 5000 yards. Both records at the time.

Originally Posted by Above the Rim

D. Henry didn't even win MVP back when it was only a 16 game season and he had over 2,000 yards. Allen pretty safe bet here.

Titans were 11-5. Rodgers threw 48 TD passes and Packers were 13-3.

Saquon has a shot if he breaks 2000 and Allen and Bills drop another few games.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by Delta5

Dickerson didnt even win the MVP when he broke that record. Dan Marino did, you're just lighting money on fire betting on RB for QB award

Jheri curls didn't win because '84 Marino was arguably (era adjusted) the greatest offensive showing in NFL history. It was essentially like throwing for 6,000 yards THIS season with unfathomable scoring numbers and a 14-2 record to boot.

Don't get ED's 2nd place bid conflated with some narrative that 2k rushers aren't deserving. He was just unfortunate to go up against that 0.00001th percentile QB performance and would have won it handily any other season during his playing career.

The difference here, is that Allen is not really in contention to put up any all-time numbers this year statistically. It's more that he's currently breaking the turnover chains that have bound him most of his career and playing extremely efficient in what is otherwise a down year for most vetted NFL qb's.

I'm not betting the house. I think 3.6 to 1 is fair value for a guy that's on pace to accumulate 2400+ scrimmage yards. For some reason everyone on here's laser affixed to his rushing stats. But the all purpose yardage and tuddies are what will create the most compelling argument.

One or more 200+ yardage performances and I believe we'll see Saquon catapult to -17x odds.

This is more a hedge on my historical understanding of Josh and his traditional late season gambling antics.

[cdub6238]

It's odd to me...that people are saying this is such a "down season" for quarterbacks...

And why are people fixated on Saquons "all purpose yards and tds" but not Allens?

Allen led the league in total TDs last year with 51...10 more than any other player..

he's at 27 now..and depending on how the season plays out could be up there again..

But nah..it's just the RBs all purpose stuff that matters I guess

[ninjacookies]

Being extra generous and giving Josh 300yds/gm (which is not going to happen) over his last 5, he'll barely end up just shy of 4,200 yards...which is his lowest output of the past 6 seasons.

I reiterated this a billion times, but if he cuts his late season turnover curse then it's his, because his current TD:int ratio is splendid.

My wager is on the event that he eventually finds his inner Josh again and has a few multiple turnover games sprinkled in with a loss (or more). QB play has been wildly unpredictable this year, so Josh has been
an outlier for the most part.

Why didn't Henry win in 2020?


48:5. I don't think anyone's ever going to come close to replicating that stat. Now if Josh doesn't throw another pick for the remainder then I will gladly bow down and kiss the ring. No diddy.

[cdub6238]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Being extra generous and giving Josh 300yds/gm (which is not going to happen) over his last 5, he'll barely end up just shy of 4,200 yards...which is his lowest output of the past 6 seasons.

I reiterated this a billion times, but if he cuts his late season turnover curse then it's his, because his current TD:int ratio is splendid.

My wager is on the event that he eventually finds his inner Josh again and has a few multiple turnover games sprinkled in with a loss (or more). QB play has been wildly unpredictable this year, so Josh has been
an outlier for the most part.

Why didn't Henry win in 2020?


48:5. I don't think anyone's ever going to come close to replicating that stat. Now if Josh doesn't throw another pick for the remainder then I will gladly bow down and kiss the ring. No diddy.

Sooo...again...just passing stats only matter for a QB...got it

But a RB gets credit for rushing and receiving stats..