2024 Bowman Draft Checklist

[ThoseBackPages]

hahahahaha

#ThanksTopps

[bub838]

Originally Posted by Bcr

With Topps it's always sold out until it's magically not. They love playing games to trick customers into the FOMO.

I’m honestly surprised they let it sit that long. I expected them to be “sold out” in the first couple of minutes.

[erock28]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

But who is sitting on the boxes and cases? I don't think it's Fanatics/Topps. They are selling it all to BO and their ilk at discounted prices. The main reason they can sit on it has nothing to do with Fanatics. BO and friends main source of profit the last 5 years is Panini. Not Topps. In fact, it's not even remotely close.

When Fanatics takes over those guys will have to pay significantly more than they have been paying on basketball and football. The average profit margin on Panini football and basketball hobby for BO and friends the last 5 years is unlike anything in history. At least in terms of more expensive, limited, easy to sell products. What happens if the prices they are paying from Fanatics they can't sit on those products anymore? What happens when the profit margin on countless products goes from 200%-1000% what they pay down to 0%-30% and sometimes a loss?

I would be surprised if at some point before Fanatics takes over at least 1 of the big 3 doesn't sell their business. They have 5 years of sales and data showing profits and profit margins that will never come close to being matched or surpassed once Fanatics takes over. I guess they could be more greedy than they already are and try to ride out the 2024 football class, 2025 football class, and the first year of Topps basketball.

An opinion without evidence, so take it as such - I DO think Fanatics holds all the product. Back in the day (sad to say, but not that long ago), slow moving products would get discounted fairly quickly. Topps and their primary distributors weren't in a position to hold for months, let alone years. Topps' goal was to produce a product, get it out ASAP, and move on to the next one. Cash wasn't as flush, storage was more of a premium. Fast forward, Fanatics has the bankroll to hold and wait out the market. Tell the big three they must charge between X and Y for each product. When one of the big 3 runs out of a product, Fanatics will simply send them more. If the rules are broken, deal is off. Used to be you could get a product from a large multitude of sources....that isn't the case anymore. How else can you explain that 2021 Bowman can be had for $1200 a jumbo case, but 2022 Bowman is $4350?! The 2021 iterations is loaded with second Bowman autos, sure, but there are plenty of Witts and earlier Dominguez in there. Elly de la Cruz isn't a $3K plus add per case. Not coincidentally, Fanatics bought Topps...in January 2022.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by erock28

An opinion without evidence, so take it as such - I DO think Fanatics holds all the product. Back in the day (sad to say, but not that long ago), slow moving products would get discounted fairly quickly. Topps and their primary distributors weren't in a position to hold for months, let alone years. Topps' goal was to produce a product, get it out ASAP, and move on to the next one. Cash wasn't as flush, storage was more of a premium. Fast forward, Fanatics has the bankroll to hold and wait out the market. Tell the big three they must charge between X and Y for each product. When one of the big 3 runs out of a product, Fanatics will simply send them more. If the rules are broken, deal is off. Used to be you could get a product from a large multitude of sources....that isn't the case anymore. How else can you explain that 2021 Bowman can be had for $1200 a jumbo case, but 2022 Bowman is $4350?! The 2021 iterations is loaded with second Bowman autos, sure, but there are plenty of Witts and earlier Dominguez in there. Elly de la Cruz isn't a $3K plus add per case. Not coincidentally, Fanatics bought Topps...in January 2022.

You think a company that has shown they want to make as much immediate profit as possible is going to hold product back for years? Has there been a single time since Fanatics took over a product skyrocketed and Topps had it up for sale months or years later? No there hasn't. I think there is 0% chance Fanatics would hold product back for many months or years and then sell it to BO and friends at a later date. It's either being sold to them immediately or within a reasonable amount of time after the product is released based on how product is moving for Fanatics to the public.

[Osfan81]

They aren’t holding for months or years. But they are doing presale and using marketing to create hype. They limit what’s available in presale to create a FOMO around hype. Then they jack up the prices. They did this very effectively with 2023-24 Topps basketball. It was a garbage product and once people realized how much it was printed, market crashed. But, Topps had already sold its product by then, leaving shops and smaller players with stuff that nobody wants. Classic market manipulation by a monopoly.

[Dmoneycards]

Did anyone buy a SuperJumbo that they regret buying? lol was looking to buy a box but they all sold out

[dbodbodbo]

Anyone know when these go up for pre-order on Blowout? I have a bunch of blowout credit. I thought they usual pop up on Blowout right after Topps posts on their site?

[erock28]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

You think a company that has shown they want to make as much immediate profit as possible is going to hold product back for years? Has there been a single time since Fanatics took over a product skyrocketed and Topps had it up for sale months or years later? No there hasn't. I think there is 0% chance Fanatics would hold product back for many months or years and then sell it to BO and friends at a later date. It's either being sold to them immediately or within a reasonable amount of time after the product is released based on how product is moving for Fanatics to the public.

So after the 2023 Bowman Draft release - about two months after - I tracked all the gold and gold parallel autos of 10ish players that hit eBay. Only ~10-15% of the gold auto print run had hit eBay. I understand there are other mediums of selling, and some cards just get PC'ed, but the fact remains eBay is THE most popular selling vehicle of sports cards. A couple months later, I tracked the same 10 players, and only 5-6 additional gold and gold variation autos had hit eBay in the interim. So it would be realistic to expect that 25, at max 30% of the product had been opened. Using conversation sake numbers, if they made 10,000 jumbo cases that sold to the public for $5,000 a case - they would have 7,000 left. There is no way to expect that BO and the other big dogs could cover the cash loss from month to month of that much product sitting in inventory collecting dust. They only generate revenue by selling trading cards, unlike Fanatics which has a massive array of revenue streams. By holding them, Fanatics can count them as assets on the books, and use whatever cash they needed from other streams to cover the direct cost loss related to the cards sitting in inventory. If they did in fact sell them off at a discounted price after 'x' amount of months, wouldn't we see a price drop on the Big 3 sites, among others? Nope. Instead 2023 Bowman Draft is HIGHER than release. And while Skenes and Langford are both nice hits - and yes Brady is in there - but with 101 autos it is shocklingly overpriced.

[Jaypers]

Product links now up on this site; no pricing yet, but HTA Choice is also included in the links.

[dbodbodbo]

Originally Posted by Jaypers

Product links now up on this site; no pricing yet, but HTA Choice is also included in the links.

I just saw that. It says "sold out", but I'm not sure it was ever able to be added to cart. Was anyone able to pre-order or are they still adding it to the site?

[Jaypers]

Originally Posted by dbodbodbo

I just saw that. It says "sold out", but I'm not sure it was ever able to be added to cart. Was anyone able to pre-order or are they still adding it to the site?

I looked at the link just minutes after it was tweeted by the Buzz account but there was no pricing for any SKU, so my guess is it's yet to be added.

[Jaypers]

Originally Posted by Jaypers

Product links now up on this site; no pricing yet, but HTA Choice is also included in the links.

Pricing is now live.

https://www.blowoutcards.com/catalog...4+bowman+draft

[JAM061200]

Originally Posted by Jaypers

Pricing is now live.

https://www.blowoutcards.com/catalog...4+bowman+draft

Wow! Almost $200 more for a Super Jumbo than what Topps Pre-Order was.

[DaryanLenz]

That pricing is an absolute joke.

[Slvnumber2]

I ordered a couple each of hobby and jumbo off Topps site last week, and will grab one more each from my LCS plus some random packs to mix in with the boxes. I always open boxes and mix in a pack or two extra so once I hit # of autos I still might have another one and the box is not dead. We do this every year as a family at Christmas.

[crownand]

Might go with Choice at a crisp 674

At least we are calling SUPER jumbo what’s its known to be called!

[Jaypers]

Originally Posted by glassofwater

2025 bowman looks pretty good. right?

If Roki Sasaki in his Major League uni, as well as a certain Brewers' prospect make it (in addition to the 8 first rounders who missed having autos in here), yes it'll be very good.

FYI: Draft wax prices have already gone up for Supers and HTA's (both boxes and cases) on this site since yesterday.

[Bcr]

$1k for a newly released box of Bowman Draft...

I remember when we were just worried about kids being priced out of the hobby. Turns out most of the working class is.

[onthebanks13]

I keep checking but haven’t seen anything about a case break player draft that Houdini typically does. Anybody know if that is happening?

[PoPCulture]

Originally Posted by onthebanks13

I keep checking but haven’t seen anything about a case break player draft that Houdini typically does. Anybody know if that is happening?

I am hopeful for it also but it appears that they have completely moved to Fanatics Live. I don’t have an account there so I can’t say if there will be one there. Hobby Legends hinted at a 50-case break today. They do a fantastic job with large breaks imo.

[wilsonsingles]

Originally Posted by erock28

So after the 2023 Bowman Draft release - about two months after - I tracked all the gold and gold parallel autos of 10ish players that hit eBay. Only ~10-15% of the gold auto print run had hit eBay. I understand there are other mediums of selling, and some cards just get PC'ed, but the fact remains eBay is THE most popular selling vehicle of sports cards. A couple months later, I tracked the same 10 players, and only 5-6 additional gold and gold variation autos had hit eBay in the interim. So it would be realistic to expect that 25, at max 30% of the product had been opened. Using conversation sake numbers, if they made 10,000 jumbo cases that sold to the public for $5,000 a case - they would have 7,000 left. There is no way to expect that BO and the other big dogs could cover the cash loss from month to month of that much product sitting in inventory collecting dust. They only generate revenue by selling trading cards, unlike Fanatics which has a massive array of revenue streams. By holding them, Fanatics can count them as assets on the books, and use whatever cash they needed from other streams to cover the direct cost loss related to the cards sitting in inventory. If they did in fact sell them off at a discounted price after 'x' amount of months, wouldn't we see a price drop on the Big 3 sites, among others? Nope. Instead 2023 Bowman Draft is HIGHER than release. And while Skenes and Langford are both nice hits - and yes Brady is in there - but with 101 autos it is shocklingly overpriced.

0% chance only 30% of 23 jumbo draft was opened.

i'm sure 70-75% has been opened.
There are a ton of people who open it and just stick it in their closet or it sitting in shop/dealer showcases that don't ever sell or post online.

[goyder43]

Definitely 75% -80% of ‘23 Draft opened based on number of Superfractors pulled and tracked on the superfractor tracker sheet.

[Slvnumber2]

Wonder what if any the “Tom Brady” insert will be this year to help drive sales. Any word on the street.

[bub838]

Originally Posted by Slvnumber2

Wonder what if any the “Tom Brady” insert will be this year to help drive sales. Any word on the street.

Jake Paul

[Midi]

Originally Posted by Bcr

$1k for a newly released box of Bowman Draft...

I remember when we were just worried about kids being priced out of the hobby. Turns out most of the working class is.

I know right!!?? I make $50K a year, and am single with no kids and no debt and I still cannot fathom spending $650 on a Jumbo box.

Been buying/investing in singles for years. i remember fondly the days of buying 2009 boxes of Draft in 2019 after release from tnt at the Jersey Boys club for ......$60 each.

Can someone or a few of you guys cosign this, anyone else remember

EDIT: 2009 Boxes