Explain Young Guns at a high level for stars vs younger prospects

[jrm156]

Seeing Panarin's crazy start to the season, decided to look up his Young Guns price on eBay. A PSA 10 is less than $100.... yet a guy like Lafrenierre, who of course is good and still young so tons of room to grow, his is almost double the price of Panarin. What's the idea here? I don't get how a guy like Panarin who has been a top ten player in the league 3 out of the last 4 seasons is so cheap.

[brettmik59]

Canadian players are the most highly valued due to the Canadian collector market while Russians are valued least. Younger players with more career runway are typically overvalued as well.

[Giroux]

Laf was also the poster boy of the COVID pump for hockey cards so maybe that has something to do with it

But yeah, it's beyond dumb

[hche]

Remember Panarin is 32. Laffy is 23, a #1 pick and seems to be breaking out.

[Giroux]

Originally Posted by hche

Remember Panarin is 32. Laffy is 23, a #1 pick and seems to be breaking out.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yZpIog7e-R4

[Malsk]

The other problem with Panarin YG's is that he was part of S1 with McDavid. There are just sooo many out there. Not a problem for McDavid since demand is there but Panarin obviously does not have the same demand.

[ksemmel]

Veterans - you know their ceiling and unless they are a top 5 player in the league at any point, values won't really go up much
Rookies - "Unlimited" ceiling

Do I agree, no, but that is the way the market works. Look at MLB prospects and young NFL QBs, a lot of times minor league guys outsell strong vets like Freeman, Arenado, etc, because you know their ceiling

[ThatGuyPal]

Probably racism, like when hockey fans say they don't want a "Russian" breaking Gretzky's records.

[Satan]

this trend isnt specific to hockey cards or young guns

[stoopid]

Repeat thread on the topic. Panarin's older, and has limited time remaining based on career length averages to accumulate points, awards, and other accolades. I personally like watching him play, overall good player but has that elite scoring and playmaking sense. Last year could be his career year, and if so was his best chance at a Hart trophy but fell short because of the other great seasons players had. It all feeds into the hype machine that drives prices.

Hellebuyck's young guns from the same set is sub $100 as well, and fairly high PSA 10 population. However, they're only 'high' relative to the fairly low pop years prior. Comparing it to Matthews or especially Bedard's PSA 10 pop (approaching 6000 already), the Panarin YG has a bit of room to grow if population count is (not) contributing (much) to price suppression.

Malkin is also undervalued, IMO. Draisaitl [German] only recently corrected upwards? Being Russian is a dubious cause for alienating collectors. Pavel Bure seems popular all these years later.

[bryan2points]

Ovi is just as popular as Sid.

[stoopid]

Originally Posted by bryan2points

Ovi is just as popular as Sid.

I think there's a lot of spec money behind Ovi's card prices (because of the career goal record chase). I'd argue actual fans looking to hold onto / collect his cards is quite a bit lower in number. Crosby's cards have consistently sold for an often stupid premium, ten years ago as well as today. 'Popular' can mean different things depending on context.

[cbeauch87]

It's the same as some 16-year-old Dominican player's first Bowman auto is worth more than a Mike Trout rookie. Some people really bank on players reaching their full potential and becoming the next great player in history.

It happens across all sports. I'd argue that in hockey it's less egregious than other sports because hockey cards aren't as popular as other sports.

[brettmik59]

Originally Posted by stoopid

I think there's a lot of spec money behind Ovi's card prices (because of the career goal record chase). I'd argue actual fans looking to hold onto / collect his cards is quite a bit lower in number. Crosby's cards have consistently sold for an often stupid premium, ten years ago as well as today. 'Popular' can mean different things depending on context.

100%. That's why his YG has fallen precipitously while Sid has remained pretty steady the last year or 2.

[RW3FAN]

Originally Posted by ThatGuyPal

Probably racism, like when hockey fans say they don't want a "Russian" breaking Gretzky's records.

No, they don't want a douche canoe that only takes one timers, breaking it.
Ovi isn't even close to a great all around hockey player. One trick pony.

[bloodwings19]

Look at Mark Scheifele, he has similar stats to Panarin, it is about scoing goals. Only Panarin been scoring goals last year and both played on mediocre teams in their prime years.

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by cbeauch87

It's the same as some 16-year-old Dominican player's first Bowman auto is worth more than a Mike Trout rookie. Some people really bank on players reaching their full potential and becoming the next great player in history.

It happens across all sports. I'd argue that in hockey it's less egregious than other sports because hockey cards aren't as popular as other sports.

Beisbol prospectors FAWN over tall dark athletic 5 TOOL men

Gets their juices flowin' and they spend cash

So yes there is selective racism when it comes to cards

[JohnnyAppleseed]

This thread got weird real quick.

[codered]

Wasn’t panarin like 30 years old when he won the Calder!?!? I kid I kid but “old” rookies seem to sell for less, no hype build up for their rookies seasons. collectors want the guy to get drafted and play the next season. That builds the hype.

[valleynuckfan]

Originally Posted by jrm156

Seeing Panarin's crazy start to the season, decided to look up his Young Guns price on eBay. A PSA 10 is less than $100.... yet a guy like Lafrenierre, who of course is good and still young so tons of room to grow, his is almost double the price of Panarin. What's the idea here? I don't get how a guy like Panarin who has been a top ten player in the league 3 out of the last 4 seasons is so cheap.

Welcome to Hockey.

[mrb842]

I think there was a lot of interest in the Crosby-Ovi-Toews-Bergeron-Lundqvist generation. Those are original 6 teams getting cups after droughts or contending in MSG with charismatic and complicated superstars. The current one-Matthews-McDavid-Mackinnon, I mean not the same thing.

The nature of sports and life-cycles.

[stoopid]

Originally Posted by mrb842

I think there was a lot of interest in the Crosby-Ovi-Toews-Bergeron-Lundqvist generation. Those are original 6 teams getting cups after droughts or contending in MSG with charismatic and complicated superstars. The current one-Matthews-McDavid-Mackinnon, I mean not the same thing.

The nature of sports and life-cycles.

This is true. Fans connect however they do with athletes, and this reflects directly in the prices their collectibles fetch.

Until recently Mackinnon's cards were fairly cheap. They're still not as expensive as McDavid or Matthews, but they're at least appreciating.

[razorsharp]

Originally Posted by bloodwings19

Look at Mark Scheifele, he has similar stats to Panarin, it is about scoing goals. Only Panarin been scoring goals last year and both played on mediocre teams in their prime years.

Panarin is world's better than Scheifele.

Artemi Panarin is currently 18th all time in PPG average.

[fuzzycollects]

It's quite simple, we as collectors have short attention spans. Flavor of the day and everyone goes running. Then the next year rolls around & everyone forgets about those guys. If anything, be happy you can get stars like Panarin (PSA 10 YG) for so cheap. Build your affordable collection & enjoy not being rimmed by a $1000 card.

[brettmik59]

That's the beauty of hockey. You can often times get great cards of great players for hardly anything compared to the other major sports.