2024 MVPs / CY Youngs

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by spuds1961

Would you happen to have a copy of those rules handy, being as old as I am I seem to have misplaced my original copy.

I'm sure someone does. Find it yourself.

All the people want to act like they are baseball purists. Hate to break it to them, but the most recent rule changes weren't the first rule changes.

[spuds1961]

Originally Posted by whitmm

I'm sure someone does. Find it yourself.

I figured since you brought it up you had a copy handy, sorry for asking.

[hche]

Well... even the rule changes do help, 30/30 is still not an easy thing. We got 4 last year and 3 this year. The next closest one this year is Lindo who is currently 3 SB short. Elly is next with 5 HR short. The most we have in a season is 4 (multiple times). The most we have in consecutive seasons is 8 (1996 and 1997). It is not like we suddenly got 10 guys doing it in a season.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by jkampis

Baseball fans can only remember the top 10 single season accomplishments? They’re too dumb to remember 11 and beyond? What point are you trying to make?

The more memorable a moment, the more people will know about it. The point I was making was that we all have recency bias. We tend to overvalue more recent moments relative to older moments. Ohtani's 50-50 is memorable. It's a great individual accomplishment. But in terms of MLB history, it's just not that significant.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by hche

Actually, more people reaching the lower level but no one can reach the top level should make the top level more prestige. For example, let's say by 2030, there are 30 40-40 seasons but still only 1 50-50 season, it should make the 50-50 more special, not less.

No doubt 50-50 is more special -- I wasn't trying to say it wasn't. My point was that having more 40-40 seasons makes it less special. It's true that it's the only time 50-50 has been achieved, but the historical benchmark has been 40-40. That's the threshold that makes a power-speed season truly unique. Just like hitting 59 home runs is awesome, but 60 is symbolic. Just like hitting 70 home runs is epic, but it gets lumped in with 60 home run seasons -- they are considered their own tier.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

So your point is nothing more than speculation based on the false assumption that the rule changes are what have resulted in more stolen bases (yet still haven't reached the stolen bases levels of decades past). Maybe try waiting until you actually see all these 40-40 and 50-50 seasons before you assume the first is cheapened.

You can't be helped if you don't want to acknowledge the obvious:

2022:
Stolen base attempts: 3,297
Stolen bases: 1,226
Success rate: 75.4%

2023 (rule changes implemented):
Stolen base attempts: 4,369
Stolen bases: 1,681
Success rate: 80.1%

Difference between 2022 and 2023:
Stolen base attempts: +33%
Stolen bases: +37%
Success rate: +6.33%

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

You can't be helped if you don't want to acknowledge the obvious:

2022:
Attempts per game: 3,297
Stolen bases per game: 1.02 stolen bases
Success rate: 75.4%

2023 (rule changes implemented):
Attempts per game: 4,369
Stolen bases per game: 1.44 stolen bases
Success rate: 80.1%

Difference between 2022 and 2023:
Attempts per game: +33%
Stolen bases per game: +41%
Success rate: +6.33%

You can't be helped if you can't comprehend that correlation doesn't equal causation. Take a statistics class and get back to me.

[chilly55]

What every one is talking about is how easy it is now to steal bases. Some won't admit this, others simply ignore the facts. The rules change has led to a major increase in stolen base attempts. We saw an increase from 2022-2023 by an additional 1,200 attempts. Why all of a sudden did SB take off? Because it's much easier to steal a base.

From 1982-1999, the players stole more than 3,000 bases per season. So for 2023-2024, we are back at those levels. So statistically, SB's are no more prevalent than during that 18 year stretch. But what the new rules did made it a lot easier to steal a base.

Let's compare 1987 to 2024. In 1987, 3,585 were stolen and as of 09/25/2024, 3,542 were stolen, just about dead even. The huge difference is in 1987, 1,529 players were caught stealing. This year, only 944. HUGE difference and players were even more successful in 2023 with only 866 getting caught with 3,503 successful steals.

With the new rules changes, Ohtani has 56 steals in 60 attempts. That percentage is Trea Turner territory and Trea covers 30.7 sq. ft per second and Ohtani only 28.2. So yes, 50/50 now is not as impressive as it would have been just two years ago. In two years, we've had 2 40/40 seasons. In the 150 years prior to 2023, there were only 4 40/40 seasons. So statistically, .it is much easier to steal now that at any point in major league history. No other season has a higher success rate than in 2023. 2024 is in 2nd place.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

You can't be helped if you can't comprehend that correlation doesn't equal causation. Take a statistics class and get back to me.

We're not talking casual correlation here -- it's very strong.

I guess you want something that's obvious to most observers to be proven to you before you believe it.

[fabiani12333]

The new rules were intended to make base stealing easier so there would be more stolen base attempts. This isn't a theory or speculation -- it was the intent of MLB. It's so freaking weird that anyone would dispute the obvious truth.

[whitmm]

Would you wannabe purists please commit to the bit at least? These rules weren't the first ever rule changes. Let's start demanding we go back to the original rules of each league. Let's get back to the mound being a flat box 45 feet away like it was in 1857. Rule changes since then have made every aspect of hitting easier.

Chilly already said that success rate has dropped, so I guess teams have figured out ways to combat steals under the new rules. Kind of like what happens with every rule change...

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by whitmm

Chilly already said that success rate has dropped, so I guess teams have figured out ways to combat steals under the new rules. Kind of like what happens with every rule change...

It's probably just random variation:

2023:
SB success rate: 80.17%
Stolen base attempt rate (attempts/SBO): 6.5%
1st half SB succes rate: 79.35%
2nd half SB success rate: 81.24%

2024:
SB success rate: 78.95%
Stolen base attempt rate (attempts/SBO): 7%
1st half SB succes rate: 77.57%
2nd half SB success rate: 80.99%

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

It's probably just random variation:

2023:
SB success rate: 80.17%
Stolen base attempt rate (attempts/SBO): 6.5%
1st half SB succes rate: 79.35%
2nd half SB success rate: 81.24%

2024:
SB success rate: 78.95%
Stolen base attempt rate (attempts/SBO): 7%
1st half SB succes rate: 77.57%
2nd half SB success rate: 80.99%

Right, must be just a random variance when it doesn't fit what you're trying to say.

What happens next year when the rate drops again? Or steals decrease? Still just random variance?

Answer the other part of what I asked. Why are stolen bases the only thing you have an issue with? Did you show this much fake outrage over the shift being eliminated? Or the fact that they keep messing with the baseball?

Since you're such a purist, does pitch-com piss you off? That eliminated part of the gamesmanship that made baseball what it is.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by whitmm

Right, must be just a random variance when it doesn't fit what you're trying to say.

What happens next year when the rate drops again? Or steals decrease? Still just random variance?

Answer the other part of what I asked. Why are stolen bases the only thing you have an issue with? Did you show this much fake outrage over the shift being eliminated? Or the fact that they keep messing with the baseball?

Since you're such a purist, does pitch-com piss you off? That eliminated part of the gamesmanship that made baseball what it is.

I have no problem with the increase in stolen bases. I just don't like people disregarding or ignoring the impact the changes have had on stolen base numbers. A 50-50 season now is not the same as it would have been three years ago. It's clearly easier now and the numbers reflect that.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

I have no problem with the increase in stolen bases. I just don't like people disregarding or ignoring the impact the changes have had on stolen base numbers. A 50-50 season now is not the same as it would have been three years ago. It's clearly easier now and the numbers reflect that.

Yes, you do have a problem with it. You wouldn't be here for the second straight year crying about it if you didn't.

50-50 is 50-50. Nobody is disregarding the changes. It's still the first time it's happened. End of story. The number of 40-40 seasons has zero affect on that. And in 10-15 years, we can have the discussion of the significance of 50-50. You wanted to downplay Acuna's 40-70 season last year, too. And guess what, nobody came close to matching it this year.

Judge hitting 58 hrs this season doesn't diminish his 62 hr season in anyway. There's no stat at all that is diminished by a lesser number being achieved more.

Judge has 140 RBI this season. Guess that's commonplace now. Because it happened once, it's going to happen every year now

[GabrielCards]

I think this has been a magical year for baseball sofar. I cant' wait for the playoffs! It's just been amazing to see two players, who are clearly the two best in the sport, having such epic years, putting up unprecedented numbers. I can't wait to see what they do next year! And then as a consolation, what great years from Witt Jr., Skenes, and Sale, who I think will finally win his first and very well deserved Cy Young!

[BoSoxFan1999]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

The new rules were intended to make base stealing easier so there would be more stolen base attempts. This isn't a theory or speculation -- it was the intent of MLB. It's so freaking weird that anyone would dispute the obvious truth.

I wonder if defenses have been able to adapt to the new runner-friendly rules. Obviously Ohtani has been a base stealing fiend, but Elly went from "Will he steal 100??" to not even being on pace to steal 70. Not sure if Elly just got tired or what, but his SB rate dropped off a cliff after the AS break.

[chilly55]

It's funny you're arguing the success rate has dropped from 2023 when 2024 in the #2 success rate in over 150 years. Success rates fluctuate each year. The fact the the rate dropped 1.5% this year is irrelevant. 2024 is the #2 success rate over any other year in history by a mile. It's not even close.

The rules changes did what they were suppose to do. Regardless how you view it, 50/50 is not as impressive today as it would have been 2 years ago. I guarantee if rules changes had not taken place, Ohtani would not have more than doubled his stolen bases. With his speed, he would have been a consistent 20-35 SB guy.

Just as Bonds will be the first to 73, Ohtani is the first 50/50. No one can take away the 50/50 accomplishment. However, history will show that Ohtani had help from the new rules in order to do it. Just like history has already shown Bonds had help from steroids to reach his mark.

Respect everyone's opinions. I acknowledge Ohtani's milestone 50/50, but also acknowledge he had help from the new rules. I'm not impressed just like I'm not impressed with Bonds's juiced 73.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

The new rules were intended to make base stealing easier so there would be more stolen base attempts. This isn't a theory or speculation -- it was the intent of MLB. It's so freaking weird that anyone would dispute the obvious truth.

The new rules were intended to get teams to attempt stealing bases more. Yes. That we agree on, and that has absolutely happened. However, we disagree as to the reason for the increase in success rate. I contend that the actual changes have very slight effect on success rate. Nominal at best. And that the rate will drop as adjustments are made by defenses. I believe runners have an advantage because defenses have been terrible at controlling the run game for many years because teams simply didn't run, so they didn't have to learn to stop them. I think you are overvaluing the rule changes and their effect on success rate, and therefore improperly discounting a player's stolen base totals. Instant replay has had more effect on stolen base totals than these rule changes. And 50-50 is still 50-50. Quit discounting history because you don't like change and don't understand it.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by chilly55

It's funny you're arguing the success rate has dropped from 2023 when 2024 in the #2 success rate in over 150 years. Success rates fluctuate each year. The fact the the rate dropped 1.5% this year is irrelevant. 2024 is the #2 success rate over any other year in history by a mile. It's not even close.

The rules changes did what they were suppose to do. Regardless how you view it, 50/50 is not as impressive today as it would have been 2 years ago. I guarantee if rules changes had not taken place, Ohtani would not have more than doubled his stolen bases. With his speed, he would have been a consistent 20-35 SB guy.

Just as Bonds will be the first to 73, Ohtani is the first 50/50. No one can take away the 50/50 accomplishment. However, history will show that Ohtani had help from the new rules in order to do it. Just like history has already shown Bonds had help from steroids to reach his mark.

Respect everyone's opinions. I acknowledge Ohtani's milestone 50/50, but also acknowledge he had help from the new rules. I'm not impressed just like I'm not impressed with Bonds's juiced 73.

Last year, 1 player hit 50 HRs and 3 players stole 50 bases. This year, 2 players hit 50 HRs and 2 players have stolen 50 bases. Both are rare achievements, regardless of the rule change. One player reaching both in the same season is impressive. Players doping to hit a bunch of HRs is not, it is just cheating.

[BoSoxFan1999]

Originally Posted by rats60

Last year, 1 player hit 50 HRs and 3 players stole 50 bases. This year, 2 players hit 50 HRs and 2 players have stolen 50 bases. Both are rare achievements, regardless of the rule change. One player reaching both in the same season is impressive. Players doping to hit a bunch of HRs is not, it is just cheating.

Yeah, comparing stolen bases in the current game to HRs hit by players roiding is totally whack. Ohtani (or Acuna, Elly, etc) aren't cheating like the roiders did.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by chilly55

It's funny you're arguing the success rate has dropped from 2023 when 2024 in the #2 success rate in over 150 years. Success rates fluctuate each year. The fact the the rate dropped 1.5% this year is irrelevant. 2024 is the #2 success rate over any other year in history by a mile. It's not even close.

The rules changes did what they were suppose to do. Regardless how you view it, 50/50 is not as impressive today as it would have been 2 years ago. I guarantee if rules changes had not taken place, Ohtani would not have more than doubled his stolen bases. With his speed, he would have been a consistent 20-35 SB guy.

Just as Bonds will be the first to 73, Ohtani is the first 50/50. No one can take away the 50/50 accomplishment. However, history will show that Ohtani had help from the new rules in order to do it. Just like history has already shown Bonds had help from steroids to reach his mark.

Respect everyone's opinions. I acknowledge Ohtani's milestone 50/50, but also acknowledge he had help from the new rules. I'm not impressed just like I'm not impressed with Bonds's juiced 73.

It's just as funny that you and Fab are acting like the only explanation for the success rate dropping is just fluctuation. What will the reason be if it drops next season as well? Just fluctuation? It's almost like you can't determine anything from two seasons.

Just curious, what will your opinion be if in 10 years, Ohtani is still the only player with 50-50?

What about Acuna's 40-70? And you can't say that it was only because of the new rules that he got to 40-40 in the first place, because he came a couple steals short of getting there before the rule changes.

[spuds1961]

Rule changes are usually made for the betterment of the game and to add excitement. It just seems most rule changes are put in place to provide more offense and more excitement. Batting averages too low, can’t have that eliminate the shift. Run production too low let’s institute rules to entice people to steal bases, only 2 throws allowed to first and a pitch clock that lets the runner know when a pitcher will release the ball. Change doesn’t bother me as every team and every player plays by the same rules and certain players are just better at taking advantage of the new rules. Saying that new rules don’t have the result that was intended is just ignoring facts the numbers don’t lie. For the first couple of years of a rule change it has its intended purpose but then defenses figure out how to combat against it. You already see the players taking the throw at seconds be changing the position of where they catch the catchers throws. The thing is we will never know how yesteryears players would’ve fared with today’s rules but it is always fun to speculate as it makes for some good discussions on the board.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by spuds1961

Rule changes are usually made for the betterment of the game and to add excitement. It just seems most rule changes are put in place to provide more offense and more excitement. Batting averages too low, can’t have that eliminate the shift. Run production too low let’s institute rules to entice people to steal bases, only 2 throws allowed to first and a pitch clock that lets the runner know when a pitcher will release the ball. Change doesn’t bother me as every team and every player plays by the same rules and certain players are just better at taking advantage of the new rules. Saying that new rules don’t have the result that was intended is just ignoring facts the numbers don’t lie. For the first couple of years of a rule change it has its intended purpose but then defenses figure out how to combat against it. You already see the players taking the throw at seconds be changing the position of where they catch the catchers throws. The thing is we will never know how yesteryears players would’ve fared with today’s rules but it is always fun to speculate as it makes for some good discussions on the board.

The pitch clock does not let the runner know when the pitcher will release the ball. There's a minimum of 8 seconds that pitcher has to mess with timing.

It's not a limit of 2 throw overs, it's 3. And most steals happen before it getting to that point. And let's be real, when pitchers were throwing over a dozen times an at bat, 95% of those weren't competitive, they were lobs.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by whitmm

The pitch clock does not let the runner know when the pitcher will release the ball. There's a minimum of 8 seconds that pitcher has to mess with timing.

It's not a limit of 2 throw overs, it's 3. And most steals happen before it getting to that point. And let's be real, when pitchers were throwing over a dozen times an at bat, 95% of those weren't competitive, they were lobs.

Pitching is all about a rhythm. I'm certain every team has the distribution of at what second every pitcher is throwing to the plate. Very few guys are quick pitching they almost all release the ball at the last possible second which makes sense since that's the least taxing strategy on their arms.