National Treasures FOTL comes out tomorrow. Does anyone really care?

[Grid]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

FOTL auction floor should always be MSRP. Even if it makes it to the floor, Panini still gets to sell those boxes for around 25% more than they sell almost all hobby to the money tree members.

It is called the perception of value. Here, I'll give you an example.

FOTL floor was $3,500. That makes $2,000 for a standard hobby box seem like a good deal. I'd rather buy one of those.

VS, FOTL sold for $2,000. Why in the world would I buy a standard hobby box for the same price?

See? They have to jack up the floor on the better version, to make the crappier one seem like a good deal. Just like places that sell medium size drinks.

Small drink $.99. Medium $1.49. Large $1.79. Medium is only there, to make large seem like a better deal. And that gets you to spend more.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by Grid

It is called the perception of value. Here, I'll give you an example.

FOTL floor was $3,500. That makes $2,000 for a standard hobby box seem like a good deal. I'd rather buy one of those.

VS, FOTL sold for $2,000. Why in the world would I buy a standard hobby box for the same price?

See? They have to jack up the floor on the better version, to make the crappier one seem like a good deal. Just like places that sell medium size drinks.

Small drink $.99. Medium $1.49. Large $1.79. Medium is only there, to make large seem like a better deal. And that gets you to spend more.

But here is the problem. Panini is selling 98% of hobby for give or take $940 a box. What the secondary market is on hobby means virtually nothing to Panini's bottom line. They can sell almost every single product to the same exact people in the same exact quantities for way more money. They choose not to. Their solution is to make more on FOTL. FOTL always has a fraction of the box count. So make more money on the small percent. Give away the much bigger quantities of in demand products for a fraction of market value. For 4 1/2 years and counting until the day they lose those licenses. Makes perfect sense!

[Grid]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

But here is the problem. Panini is selling 98% of hobby for give or take $940 a box. What the secondary market is on hobby means virtually nothing to Panini's bottom line. They can sell almost every single product to the same exact people in the same exact quantities for way more money. They choose not to. Their solution is to make more on FOTL. FOTL always has a fraction of the box count. So make more money on the small percent. Give away the much bigger quantities of in demand products for a fraction of market value. For 4 1/2 years and counting until the day they lose those licenses. Makes perfect sense!

That's not a problem. That is called protecting your market. Look at it this way. If those same people that are paying $940 a box can no longer make $500-$1000 for fronting their money on stock (boxes). Will they still show up in mass, to buy the next release?

Panini needs those 98% (it isn't this high in reality) to stay happy with profit margins. So Panini can continue to sell them more goods. They still need to drive consumer demand for their product, or the retailers wont have a reason to order in the future.

And to double down on how this all works. Panini has been stealing food out of their mouths, with selling direct on these FOTL boxes. Panini making standard hobby boxes appear to be a better value, is a means of making good for those stolen sales.

Its also the same reason Panini will sell standard hobby boxes on their site, at a price higher than their distributors. You cant kill off your retailers. Well, unless you are fanatics and have the means to go through retail directly on your own.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by Grid

That's not a problem. That is called protecting your market. Look at it this way. If those same people that are paying $940 a box can no longer make $500-$1000 for fronting their money on stock (boxes). Will they still show up in mass, to buy the next release?

Panini needs those 98% (it isn't this high in reality) to stay happy with profit margins. So Panini can continue to sell them more goods. They still need to drive consumer demand for their product, or the retailers wont have a reason to order in the future.

And to double down on how this all works. Panini has been stealing food out of their mouths, with selling direct on these FOTL boxes. Panini making standard hobby boxes appear to be a better value, is a means of making good for those stolen sales.

Its also the same reason Panini will sell standard hobby boxes on their site, at a price higher than their distributors. You cant kill off your retailers. Well, unless you are fanatics and have the means to go through retail directly on your own.

Panini is protecting their market? There is no other business on earth that operates like Panini. Topps used to. They essentially no longer do because when Fanatics took over they saw how many countless millions of easy profit they were leaving on the table. What Topps was leaving on the table for most products wasn't even in the same universe as what Panini does.

There is no other business that sells expensive, in demand, limited, easy to move items at a fraction of the immediate resale value. There are millions of people that would pay Panini more for those products at a fraction of the profit margin. Yet Panini chooses to sell to the same small group of people for peanuts.

Do you realize how much Panini has given to this group the last 4 1/2 years to provide no service millions of others wouldn't provide for a fraction of the profit margin? Literally billions of dollars. If you think thats a joke go back and do research for every product the last 4 1/2 years. I'm sure you won't though. Just NT, Flawless, and Prizm basketball and football hobby 2020- now it's hundreds of millions of dollars. They could have charged those same guys double and the difference is still hundreds of millions just on those products.

Every single direct Panini hobby buyer could choose to stop buying tomorrow for 75% of MSRP. Panini would have millions lining up to take those slots.

What consumer demand? You mean people buying into breaks? Because virtually no regular buyers are buying most basketball and football hobby at release. How would that change if Panini just sold to the same exact people or breakers willing to pay the most in the same quantities? Market value would be exactly the same and Panini makes more profit.

Panini was "stealing food of of their mouths" when they used to auction all the FOTL boxes. It always drove hobby price down. That stopped years ago. 2020-21 Spectra Basketball FOTL in August of 2021 I believe. Very few if any in demand FOTL for basketball and football have been fully auctioned since then. Now if anything FOTL drives hobby prices higher.

Panini hasn't needed the money tree members since 2019. They can go any other route and make way more profit. They choose not to. They could sell to those exact same people in the exact same quantities for way more. They choose not to.

What basketball and football hobby products the last 4 1/2 years have sold at release at or below MSRP? For hobby is it even 1%? I guess a good amount of retail sells for MSRP at release now. Only because they increased the prices and diluted the products massively by overproduction and less guarantees per box. Even if they just kept the contents the same tons more retail would be over MSRP. Keep in mind these guys don't pay MSRP. They pay give or take 75% of it. Even if Panini just charged them MSRP for every product that's 25% more profit on every product. For 4 1/2 years. That's a 9 figure profit difference.

What makes it even more ridiculous is Panini shouldn't give a crap about the future of the market and Fanatics should. Since Panini lost these licenses, what has prevented them from trying to get every last cent they can while they still can? They do it on FOTL now. What major business do you know of that tries to get every last red cent for a small portion of their products and yet on the biggest items that are by far the most easy profit they just give them away for nothing? There is no business on earth except for Panini. They keep trying to save pennies by throwing a dollar away at a time.

[Grid]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

Panini is protecting their market? There is no other business on earth that operates like Panini. Topps used to. They essentially no longer do because when Fanatics took over they saw how many countless millions of easy profit they were leaving on the table. What Topps was leaving on the table for most products wasn't even in the same universe as what Panini does.

There is no other business that sells expensive, in demand, limited, easy to move items at a fraction of the immediate resale value. There are millions of people that would pay Panini more for those products at a fraction of the profit margin. Yet Panini chooses to sell to the same small group of people for peanuts.

Do you realize how much Panini has given to this group the last 4 1/2 years to provide no service millions of others wouldn't provide for a fraction of the profit margin? Literally billions of dollars. If you think thats a joke go back and do research for every product the last 4 1/2 years. I'm sure you won't though. Just NT, Flawless, and Prizm basketball and football hobby 2020- now it's hundreds of millions of dollars. They could have charged those same guys double and the difference is still hundreds of millions just on those products.

Every single direct Panini hobby buyer could choose to stop buying tomorrow for 75% of MSRP. Panini would have millions lining up to take those slots.

What consumer demand? You mean people buying into breaks? Because virtually no regular buyers are buying most basketball and football hobby at release. How would that change if Panini just sold to the same exact people or breakers willing to pay the most in the same quantities? Market value would be exactly the same and Panini makes more profit.

Panini was "stealing food of of their mouths" when they used to auction all the FOTL boxes. It always drove hobby price down. That stopped years ago. 2020-21 Spectra Basketball FOTL in August of 2021 I believe. Very few if any in demand FOTL for basketball and football have been fully auctioned since then. Now if anything FOTL drives hobby prices higher.

Panini hasn't needed the money tree members since 2019. They can go any other route and make way more profit. They choose not to. They could sell to those exact same people in the exact same quantities for way more. They choose not to.

What basketball and football hobby products the last 4 1/2 years have sold at release at or below MSRP? For hobby is it even 1%? I guess a good amount of retail sells for MSRP at release now. Only because they increased the prices and diluted the products massively by overproduction and less guarantees per box. Even if they just kept the contents the same tons more retail would be over MSRP. Keep in mind these guys don't pay MSRP. They pay give or take 75% of it. Even if Panini just charged them MSRP for every product that's 25% more profit on every product. For 4 1/2 years. That's a 9 figure profit difference.

What makes it even more ridiculous is Panini shouldn't give a crap about the future of the market and Fanatics should. Since Panini lost these licenses, what has prevented them from trying to get every last cent they can while they still can? They do it on FOTL now. What major business do you know of that tries to get every last red cent for a small portion of their products and yet on the biggest items that are by far the most easy profit they just give them away for nothing? There is no business on earth except for Panini. They keep trying to save pennies by throwing a dollar away at a time.

I wont pretend I read that wall of text. Ill make it easier for you.

I sell dealers purple peanuts for $50 a bag. I make 50 batches of peanuts every year, and I need those dealers to keep coming back for more.

The dealers sell my purple peanuts for $100 a bag. If I started charging them $90 per, they would stop buying from me.

My purple peanuts cost me $10 to produce. I am making 5 X my money to the dealers. They are making 2 x the money to their clients. Everyone needs to feel good about what I am doing, or the house of cards will fall.

Again, Panini doesn't have the sales force, retail locations or means to get everything they make to market on their own. They are not bitng the hand that feeds them.

In summary, if they felt it would work the way you say it should. Then they would be doing just that. But since they arent, well. There you go!

[sethc1020]

This^^^^ Now lets do it in reverse. If Panini started charging more to the distributors then the distributors raise prices to the retailers and retailers raise their price to customers. At some point the customer is going to be priced out (pretty much now on wax, only thing holding wax up now is breakers but at some point people will be priced out of that also) and stop buying, which causes the retailer to stop buying, which causes the distributors to stop buying and Panini holding the bag.

[ColtsCrush86]

People still paying this insane prices? Aren't all the patches not even game worn anymore? Joke

[Grid]

Originally Posted by sethc1020

This^^^^ Now lets do it in reverse. If Panini started charging more to the distributors then the distributors raise prices to the retailers and retailers raise their price to customers. At some point the customer is going to be priced out (pretty much now on wax, only thing holding wax up now is breakers but at some point people will be priced out of that also) and stop buying, which causes the retailer to stop buying, which causes the distributors to stop buying and Panini holding the bag.

This is correct!

[anusinha]

Motif took a lot of the steam out of NT

[kluke84]

Surprised this actually got released.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by Grid

I wont pretend I read that wall of text. Ill make it easier for you.

I sell dealers purple peanuts for $50 a bag. I make 50 batches of peanuts every year, and I need those dealers to keep coming back for more.

The dealers sell my purple peanuts for $100 a bag. If I started charging them $90 per, they would stop buying from me.

My purple peanuts cost me $10 to produce. I am making 5 X my money to the dealers. They are making 2 x the money to their clients. Everyone needs to feel good about what I am doing, or the house of cards will fall.

Again, Panini doesn't have the sales force, retail locations or means to get everything they make to market on their own. They are not bitng the hand that feeds them.

In summary, if they felt it would work the way you say it should. Then they would be doing just that. But since they arent, well. There you go!

Peanuts are not high end expensive, limited, easy to sell products. Normal products with normal upcharges you are stuck with a ton of inventory. There are no other products on earth that for 4 1/2 years the average around release sales price is 3-4 times what the person buying at pays. Every Panini money tree member could sell their entire football and basketball hobby stock immediately if they go low enough. However low they would go its still way way more than they pay on average. No other company on earth does what Panini does.

Panini isn't biting the hand that feeds them? Every money tree member could stop buying tomorrow and millions would line up to take their spots. Millions of people would line up to pay MSRP. Money tree members pay around 25% below MSRP.

BTW when this system was set up everything was selling at MSRP. Panini sold all their hobby right away for around 75% of MSRP and dealers sold at and sometimes below MSRP. The margin was give or take 25%. Where you are coming up with now that Panini's "clients" should be making double what they spend I have no idea. The number for years was around 25%. For the last 4 1/2 years the number on average has been way more than double profit. It's probably more than triple.

As I mentioned, Panini could still sell in the same quantities to the same people for more or pick from a huge new buyer pool. All that would change is the label on the shipping box and where the payment is coming from. Everything else for Panini would remain the same. Except they would be making at a minimum hundreds of millions more per year.

If you seriously believe what you're saying pertains to Panini hobby products there is no hope for you.

[Grid]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

Peanuts are not high end expensive, limited, easy to sell products. Normal products with normal upcharges you are stuck with a ton of inventory. There are no other products on earth that for 4 1/2 years the average around release sales price is 3-4 times what the person buying at pays. Every Panini money tree member could sell their entire football and basketball hobby stock immediately if they go low enough. However low they would go its still way way more than they pay on average. No other company on earth does what Panini does.

Panini isn't biting the hand that feeds them? Every money tree member could stop buying tomorrow and millions would line up to take their spots. Millions of people would line up to pay MSRP. Money tree members pay around 25% below MSRP.

BTW when this system was set up everything was selling at MSRP. Panini sold all their hobby right away for around 75% of MSRP and dealers sold at and sometimes below MSRP. The margin was give or take 25%. Where you are coming up with now that Panini's "clients" should be making double what they spend I have no idea. The number for years was around 25%. For the last 4 1/2 years the number on average has been way more than double profit. It's probably more than triple.

As I mentioned, Panini could still sell in the same quantities to the same people for more or pick from a huge new buyer pool. All that would change is the label on the shipping box and where the payment is coming from. Everything else for Panini would remain the same. Except they would be making at a minimum hundreds of millions more per year.

If you seriously believe what you're saying pertains to Panini hobby products there is no hope for you.

I said purple peanuts. Those are rare! Sorry if you don't know what an analogy is. If you are now basing whatever argument this is, based on the value of actual peanuts. You are truly clueless. Everyone understands except for you.

There is no reasoning with you. You get triggered by every FOTL thread. Enjoy being mad at the world!

[TheFrenzy]

Originally Posted by Grid

Again, Panini doesn't have the sales force, retail locations or means to get everything they make to market on their own.

Genuine question for you or anyone else who wants to jump in:

What do we imagine the revenue difference would be for Panini between selling to breakers and LCSs versus simply making product available on their website and selling directly to collectors?

[Siberian13]

Originally Posted by Grid

I said purple peanuts. Those are rare! Sorry if you don't know what an analogy is. If you are now basing whatever argument this is, based on the value of actual peanuts. You are truly clueless. Everyone understands except for you.

There is no reasoning with you. You get triggered by every FOTL thread. Enjoy being mad at the world!

Purple peanuts are so hard to find these days.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by Grid

I said purple peanuts. Those are rare! Sorry if you don't know what an analogy is. If you are now basing whatever argument this is, based on the value of actual peanuts. You are truly clueless. Everyone understands except for you.

There is no reasoning with you. You get triggered by every FOTL thread. Enjoy being mad at the world!

Yeah I must not understand. It makes perfect sense to sell BO a hobby product at $500 a box when BO is advertising on dealernet they will pay $1500 a box for it. That's not just 1 product. It's basically the overall average percentage over money tree member cost of every football and basketball product the past 4 1/2 years.

Im not triggered by every FOTL thread. I'm triggered by the dumbest people on earth. Let's take everyone else out of it besides the people opening everything. You must not realize that every in demand product now it's almost exclusively opened by breakers. These same breakers would take BO and friends full allocation and pay multiples more than what BO and co pay. All that would change for Panini is where the payment is coming from and the shipping label. But I guess that's worth flushing billions down the toilet for. Just too hard to change those two things.

[Vintage Collector]

Originally Posted by ColtsCrush86

People still paying this insane prices? Aren't all the patches not even game worn anymore? Joke

Yeah, I'm sitting on a mount of 90's and 2000's game used cards and patches. I hear it's going to be the next big thing.

[PrimeTimeScott]

I can't wait to buy base singles of Broncos that are no longer even on the team!! I assume the three base cards will be Russell Wilson, Jerry Jeudy, and PS2 (so at least one will still be on the team).

[packman80]

What's going to happen is the normal the favorite big name breakers will get the loaded boxes to break on their channels and anyone who is not them and buys a box will probably be looking to load their pockets with rocks and walk into a lake after getting about $50 worth of cards.

[kipgen]

Originally Posted by packman80

What's going to happen is the normal the favorite big name breakers will get the loaded boxes to break on their channels and anyone who is not them and buys a box will probably be looking to load their pockets with rocks and walk into a lake after getting about $50 worth of cards.

Time to break out the ol CT scanner and get to flippin

[TheFrenzy]

Still no checklist?

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by TheFrenzy

Still no checklist?

we'd be lucky to have checklist the day hobby comes out at this point 😂

[boxbuster7]

Richardson 1/1 shield got pulled before the product comes out...

[casebreaksllc]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

Richardson 1/1 shield got pulled before the product comes out...

that was the FOTL one, not the standard from Hobby

[casebreaksllc]

Originally Posted by TheFrenzy

Still no checklist?

hobby checklist is out didn't see fotl yet

[kluke84]

I watched a packman break of 2 fotl the other day. A continued reminder not to buy wax even though it can be cool to rip.

Singles are so much cheaper. And they actually didn't include an RPA in the 2nd box.