Wait ... Paul Skenes won't be winning ROY?!

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by ThatGuyPal

Yes exactly, pretty simple concept don't let them trick you into betting for Merrill when he was the clear fav as it said in OP's post. My original post in here literally said "They will get everyone to put money on Merrill than announce Skenes to make up for the early money on him"

Which clearly happened as people have to now try and hedge that Skenes is fav again. So yeah pretty sure I'm correct unless he isn't ROY lol not sure if you thought you caught something but yes your reply is correct and I was right in it happening lol

Who is announcing Skenes? The sportsbooks don't choose the winner.

The sharps would have been hammering Skenes when he wasn't the favorite, not dumping money on Merrill. If Skenes was such a lock like you want to say, he would have stayed a massive favorite, or they would have pulled it, like they did last season on some awards.

You also missed the point. It's hilarious that when it's not your guy in the lead, it's the odds don't mean anything. But when it's your guy in the lead, they do mean something. You can't have it both ways. Either there's validity to them or there isn't. And no, they aren't setting them trying to screw you over.

[JeremyNick]

This threads a gem.

Skenes is having an historic season. That hasn’t changed one bit since this thread started.

[kipgen]

Originally Posted by ThatGuyPal

$3k on Skenes if you want to feel good when he wins but still have emergency rainy day money if Miracle Merrill pulls it off. I tried warning people this was going to happen now I'm trying to save you some heartache. People dig way too deep on here into WAR etc....it's obvious, he's already basically a face of the league, same as you could guess pretty easy Ohtani was gonna win ROY. Definitely don't listen to the guy who said bet $200 to make your $150 back when you'd have to bet $225 lol jk good luck either way.

Skenes won't be a face in the league as long as the Pirates are a bad team, most people only know him for who his gf is

[TBTC Baseball]

Originally Posted by kipgen

Skenes won't be a face in the league as long as the Pirates are a bad team, most people only know him for who his gf is

<Ken Griffey Jr. enters the chat...from the early 90's>

[sportsfan12345]

Originally Posted by sportsfan12345

I have Merrill at 28/1 for $150 to win $4,250. I know I should've hedged a week or two ago when Skenes was +490 (not sure what I was thinking). Now Skenes is -150, is it worth the hedge? If so, how much would you put to hedge?

Any other opinions?

[BabaORiley]

Originally Posted by sportsfan12345

Any other opinions?

I'd maybe be a bit more aggressive but I think your original hedge of $2k is smart. If Merrill goes off and the Dads take the West, there's more of a narrative to be had. This feels more like a 70% Skenes win right now so -150 seems short enough to be aggressive. That said... If you like Merrill, just ride it out, hope he has a good week and maybe Skenes gets bounced early by the Yankees.

[fulltritty]

Originally Posted by kipgen

Skenes won't be a face in the league as long as the Pirates are a bad team, most people only know him for who his gf is

How long before he becomes a Yankee like a lot of ex-Pirate pitchers?

[Philthy]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Hmm -- he's 17th among all MLB position players in fWAR. That doesn't include pitchers.

Skenes is 4th in bWAR among all MLB pitchers -- fWAR uses xFIP, which is outdated.

So you're using fWAR for one player and bWar for the other to make your argument look better? At least be consistent.

[jhssketchcards]

Originally Posted by kipgen

Skenes won't be a face in the league as long as the Pirates are a bad team, most people only know him for who his gf is

A player that plays every 5th day will never be the face of the MLB.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by jhssketchcards

A player that plays every 5th day will never be the face of the MLB.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

His last couple starts I didn't even know happened until I saw a couple of pitches on Pitching Ninja.

The hype decline is very real. Just like a certain shortstop with the Reds.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by Philthy

So you're using fWAR for one player and bWar for the other to make your argument look better? At least be consistent.

I was actually being considerate of Merrill. His bWAR is much lower than his fWAR: 5.1 fWAR vs 4.3 bWAR.

Fangraphs uses Statcast for defensive value -- Baseball Reference uses Defensive Runs Saved. I was trying to favor the stats that I consider most reliable, but oh well.

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by kipgen

Skenes won't be a face in the league as long as the Pirates are a bad team, most people only know him for who his gf is

He's already well known in the league, but I'm counting the days when he can escape the garbage Pirates franchise and go to a real MLB team.

[sportsfan12345]

Is there really any chance Skenes doesn’t win at this point? Maybe if Merrill hits a game winning HR to win the division?

[SaveMeTheGum]

Draftkings at -145 now for Skenes. Still a good bet and great value to add to a parlay.

[ironfireman]

Originally Posted by jhssketchcards

A player that plays every 5th day will never be the face of the MLB.

Skenes is actually pitching every 6th day.

[TBTC Baseball]

Originally Posted by jhssketchcards

A player that plays every 5th day will never be the face of the MLB.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It doesn't look like this is done alphabetically.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Nolan Ryan was as much the face of MLB as anyone toward the end of his career.

[ScooterD]

Originally Posted by jhssketchcards

A player that plays every 5th day will never be the face of the MLB.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Remember Fernando-mania?

[jjcan]

Originally Posted by TBTC Baseball

It doesn't look like this is done alphabetically.

Isn't the first guy a pitcher too?

[ThatGuyPal]

Skenes -220 now

Merrill's race to lose!

Who woulda thought the guy drafted first, who started the all-star game in his first season, the first to do it since Hideo Nomo who, what? Won the Rookie of the Year when he did it over the batting ROY choice Chipper Jones. Who could of seen this coming?

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by ThatGuyPal

Skenes -220 now

Merrill's race to lose!

Who woulda thought the guy drafted first, who started the all-star game in his first season, the first to do it since Hideo Nomo who, what? Won the Rookie of the Year when he did it over the batting ROY choice Chipper Jones. Who could of seen this coming?

Wait, I thought the only reason they made Merrill the favorite is so they could get people to bet on him?

Since that was your claim, then Skenes is only the favorite now because too much money came in on Merrill and they have to offset it.

[LondonGames]

Originally Posted by ThatGuyPal

$3k on Skenes if you want to feel good when he wins but still have emergency rainy day money if Miracle Merrill pulls it off. I tried warning people this was going to happen now I'm trying to save you some heartache. People dig way too deep on here into WAR etc....it's obvious, he's already basically a face of the league, same as you could guess pretty easy Ohtani was gonna win ROY. Definitely don't listen to the guy who said bet $200 to make your $150 back when you'd have to bet $225 lol jk good luck either way.

Originally Posted by ThatGuyPal

Yes exactly, pretty simple concept don't let them trick you into betting for Merrill when he was the clear fav as it said in OP's post. My original post in here literally said "They will get everyone to put money on Merrill than announce Skenes to make up for the early money on him"

Which clearly happened as people have to now try and hedge that Skenes is fav again. So yeah pretty sure I'm correct unless he isn't ROY lol not sure if you thought you caught something but yes your reply is correct and I was right in it happening lol

Why would anyone listen to you if you don't understand how markets work?

Your use of "they" referring to Sportsbooks, who don't make the line- only the opening line, shows you literally have no idea what you're talking about.

Don't offer advice on betting markets ever.

[jhssketchcards]

Originally Posted by jjcan

Isn't the first guy a pitcher too?

You mean a pitcher who never won a CY, and is rehabbing his second TJ? Ohtani is amazing without pitching. If he stuck to only hitting, his career will have more weight than his pitching. He’s only finished Top 10 1 time in 5 years in CY. As amazing as Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson were they were never the face of MLB


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[jjcan]

Originally Posted by jhssketchcards

You mean a pitcher who never won a CY, and is rehabbing his second TJ? Ohtani is amazing without pitching. If he stuck to only hitting, his career will have more weight than his pitching. He’s only finished Top 10 1 time in 5 years in CY. As amazing as Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson were they were never the face of MLB


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Um, Whatever you want to say to fit your narrative. Makes you happy is fine by me.

Everyday is a new day might as well get on board. Ohtani is a "Pitcher" and a unicorn and is the Face of Baseball. IF the WBC moment against trout AT BAT where he was pitching doesn't convince you of his Pitching face, then oh Well, 90 million people watching him pitch just saw "meh" marketing.

Skenes as a Pitcher will be the face of baseball on a lesser scale, but still a face of baseball.

[jhssketchcards]

Originally Posted by jjcan

Um, Whatever you want to say to fit your narrative. Makes you happy is fine by me.

Everyday is a new day might as well get on board. Ohtani is a "Pitcher" and a unicorn and is the Face of Baseball. Skenes as a Pitcher will be the face of baseball on a lesser scale, but still a face of baseball.

He’s the face if MLB absolutely. But he wouldnt be the face of the MLB if he were just a pitcher and you know that. Kershaw wasn’t, Verlander and Scherzer wasn’t. Ohtani is the face of the game because he’s and unreal hitter and All-Star pitcher.
He would be the face of the game just as a hitter.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk