📈Is the correction over? What cards look attractive with an upside potential?📈

[Nomad]

yeah... what I was saying. Poker and flipping/short term investing cards very similar. The only surefire strategy was hoarding boxes and now even those are too plentiful and/or priced too high.

[Bosoxfan5990]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

If I could compare the 2 it would be the card flipper would be analogous to the casual poker player.

It might *feel* like you're killing it because you only remember all the big wins you had but you'll never know because you don't treat it like a business.

Everybody is a genius and killing it when they post about it online because they never share any losses

Shout it from the back!

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

It is what it is

it is? since when?

[gomiamigo]

Originally Posted by tjforce

This reminds me of that scene in Rounders where his wet blanket girlfriend is trying to talk him out of pursuing poker


If it's just luck then how come the same people can continuously do well in this year after year, no matter the market?

Truth. I have a friend who's made about $9mm playing. He must be luckier than me as I have made....thousands playing poker [single digit!]

She gave the worst performance of all-time worst actress performances in that role. Almost ruined the entire movie.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

If I could compare the 2 it would be the card flipper would be analogous to the casual poker player.

It might *feel* like you're killing it because you only remember all the big wins you had but you'll never know because you don't treat it like a business.

Everybody is a genius and killing it when they post about it online because they never share any losses

No one wins 100% of the time.

It's like the stock market, some plays are (or will eventually be) losers. At the end of the day, the only thing that matters is net gain (or loss) over a period of time.

Even though the hobby constantly changes/evolves, some people can post profit after profit annually regardless of the ever-changing market conditions.

Those who are constantly "lucky" are likely experienced card flippers. Using your analogy, they may be likened to experienced poker players, where luck is part of the equation but skill is also an important factor too. That's why Doyle Brunson, Phil Ivey and Phil Hellmuth keep/kept winning and/or placing high in poker tournaments.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by gomiamigo

Truth. I have a friend who's made about $9mm playing. He must be luckier than me as I have made....thousands playing poker [single digit!]

She gave the worst performance of all-time worst actress performances in that role. Almost ruined the entire movie.

I consider her one of the worst villains in modern cinema.

If that was the writers' intent, then she did a great job portraying it.

[Nomad]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

That's why Doyle Brunson, Phil Ivey and Phil Hellmuth keep/kept winning and/or placing high in poker tournaments.

Biggest skill, as any veteran poker player will tell you is bankroll management. This means not going on tilt when you don't hit the right cards (hey that analogy works for both hobbies). Avoid temptation to reup at a higher price on speculative moves as a result.

Bottom line: bankroll should be separate from a primary account and what you risk at any given time should be not more than 10 percent of total. Which means that if you fail to hit a few times, or have winning sessions, you downsize risk, not the opposite. If your core Tua and Giddey investments are down, don't make a risky move toward a guy who had a good game or three.

[elontusk1119]

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/19/the-...ord-means.html

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has unveiled his latest buzzword to describe monetary policy, with a “recalibration” of policy at a pivotal moment for the central bank.

Asset prices soared Thursday as investors took Powell at his word that the unusually outsized move wasn’t in response to a substantial weakening of the economy but rather an effort to shore up the labor market.

“It really allows him to push this narrative that this easing cycle is not about us being in recession, it is about extending the economic expansion,” PGIM economist Tom Porcelli said. “I think it’s a really powerful idea.”

so cards are gonna go back to ATH?!!

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by elontusk1119

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/19/the-...ord-means.html



so cards are gonna go back to ATH?!!

Certain ones have been there for a few months...


but no, those Trae Young Prizm bass will never sniff previous prices.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

No one wins 100% of the time.

It's like the stock market, some plays are (or will eventually be) losers. At the end of the day, the only thing that matters is net gain (or loss) over a period of time.

Even though the hobby constantly changes/evolves, some people can post profit after profit annually regardless of the ever-changing market conditions.

Those who are constantly "lucky" are likely experienced card flippers. Using your analogy, they may be likened to experienced poker players, where luck is part of the equation but skill is also an important factor too. That's why Doyle Brunson, Phil Ivey and Phil Hellmuth keep/kept winning and/or placing high in poker tournaments.

Honestly we mostly agree lol just looking at it from different angles

Fwiw I’m not saying it’s impossible to make any money, I actually think a better analogy is probably sports betting. There are definitely skilled sports bettors who have a real edge and then the other 99% are just in between big hits

[patchgenie]

Originally Posted by elontusk1119

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/19/the-...ord-means.html



so cards are gonna go back to ATH?!!

stonks - UP
cardz - UP
business - UP!

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by Nomad

If your core Tua and Giddey investments are down, don't make a risky move toward a guy who had a good game or three.

you hawk tua cards?

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by Torro

Is anyone collecting low-end cards these days? Seems like the requirement for "PC" cards is that they need to be high-value cards. The price gap between common cards and the ones that are considered rare keeps growing and growing. Cars that are not available and hard to get have always been more desirable, but 10-20 years ago the gap was not that huge.

That leads to the question if people are more willing to throw huge money for some rare cards these days as it feels more of an asset or investment (something that could be more valuable in the future or at least holds its value)?

I know everyone here are saying cards are not investment / asset and they dont view their cards that way, but is it really the case? You are willing to pay 4-5 figures for one card (as you collect what you like right?) and skip everything that you can easily get for ~$10, and its a cool looking card of your favorite player that you collect. But you lean towards 4-5 figure cards just because you like it so much more? Or is there some type of future value expectation tied to this purchase?

Hmm -- probably no different than other things people buy. People tend to want nicer and more desirable things, which generally cost more money and are more exclusive.

It's all relative, too. $10 cards are valuable to 8-year-olds. $100 cards are valuable to 12-year-olds. $1,000 cards are valuable to 16-year-olds. And $10,000 are valuable to 35-year-olds.

Things that are relatively desirable and valuable are perceived to be better investments, even though we know that isn't true with trading cards -- they have no intrinsic value and are purely speculative in nature.

True collectors tend to be more selective about what they buy -- a card that is generally popular or relatively valuable isn't necessarily a card a collector wants for their collection. So, what is "nice" or "desirable" to a collector sometimes isn't related to rarity, scarcity or resale value.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

This is the lie people tell themselves to take on debt to buy high end cards, when in reality they just want them to show off online to prove to everyone how cool they are

A very small percentage of people are wealthy individuals who can actually afford them

Originally Posted by SidVish

That sounds very sad.

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Originally Posted by jcardstore

It's not exclusive to sports cards.

People buy stuff they don't need all the time to impress people they don't know

They're called aspirational consumers:

For years the term “aspirational consumer” has been used in the luxury market to describe a less financially-secure consumer who aspires to own luxury brands as a means to enhance one’s status and self-worth.

In effect, these less-than consumers can become more by purchasing certain brands.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/pamdanz...ferent-things/

They represent a big segment of the luxury brand market. People assume the wealthy or well-off are the buyers of luxury brands, but actually a large segment are those who are lower income:

The psychology of why we buy designer products also eschews typical economic sense, because the motivation to buy is about status. The higher the price, the more status you’re theoretically buying.

Which is why it’s not just rich people buying rich people things. A not-insignificant portion of luxury growth comes from middle- and low-income consumers. According to GlobalData, Americans with a household income of less than $50,000 make up about 27 percent of regular luxury consumers. That’s almost as big a group as luxury consumers with an income of $150,000 or more.

https://www.vox.com/money/23728283/l...mic-le-creuset

Basically, a lot of people are posers.

[jkampis]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

They're called aspirational consumers:


https://www.forbes.com/sites/pamdanz...ferent-things/

They represent a big segment of the luxury brand market. People assume the wealthy or well-off are the buyers of luxury brands, but actually a large segment are those who are lower income:


https://www.vox.com/money/23728283/l...mic-le-creuset

Basically, a lot of people are posers.

No wonder people have so much credit card debt.

[KhalDrogo]

The generalized point is correct, but those numbers are based on a very loose definition of what constitutes a luxury item. A $2500 home Breville espresso machine is not a luxury item. It’s a crappy home appliance with an insane markup, which is why you can always buy one on sale.

But true luxury goods certainly are popular in lower income “households”. The article correctly points out that a lot of these buyers are young adults with few cost of living expenses thanks to mommy and daddy providing a free roof. Almost half of aged 18-29 adults live at home. I certainly expect the trend to continue as these kids are obsessed with living on the coasts instead of in a place where they can grow their wealth. It should bode well for luxury, cards included.

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Hmm -- probably no different than other things people buy. People tend to want nicer and more desirable things, which generally cost more money and are more exclusive.

It's all relative, too. $10 cards are valuable to 8-year-olds. $100 cards are valuable to 12-year-olds. $1,000 cards are valuable to 16-year-olds. And $10,000 are valuable to 35-year-olds.

Things that are relatively desirable and valuable are perceived to be better investments, even though we know that isn't true with trading cards -- they have no intrinsic value and are purely speculative in nature.

True collectors tend to be more selective about what they buy -- a card that is generally popular or relatively valuable isn't necessarily a card a collector wants for their collection. So, what is "nice" or "desirable" to a collector sometimes isn't related to rarity, scarcity or resale value.

No intrinsic monetary value. But have I told you all about aesthetic value yet

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[GOATcards]

With rare (ahem) exceptions like Wagner, cards aren't great investment vehicles. I don't know what would make those go down in value besides a cataclysm in which case investment vehicles aren't the main worry

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[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

With rare (ahem) exceptions like Wagner, cards aren't great investment vehicles. I don't know what would make those go down in value besides a cataclysm in which case investment vehicles aren't the main worry

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Well those cards are so illiquid it’s impossible to determine if the value went down or not.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Honestly we mostly agree lol just looking at it from different angles

Fwiw I’m not saying it’s impossible to make any money, I actually think a better analogy is probably sports betting. There are definitely skilled sports bettors who have a real edge and then the other 99% are just in between big hits

Haha I know, our views generally align together.

I'd argue that it's not as risky as sports betting because there's certain factors that can't be controlled in sports betting such as officiating (and there's been some sketch officials in the past, not to mention, even good ones occasionally make the wrong calls). I liked your poker analogy though, because although based on stats, you still don't know what the flop/turn/river will be until the card(s) is flipped over.

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Well those cards are so illiquid it’s impossible to determine if the value went down or not.

The Wagner never goes down

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[SliderCutter14]

My personal opinion in basketball is look at draft picks of teams that are great at picking "long-term" quality of players. If you chase rookie cards vs regular season to season stuff you'll prefer looking at tons of college basketball to see how they handle the pressure if they make it to the final four, many classmates groaned at me opting for a ton of Chris Webber rookie cards yet it worked out better than other friends of that era.
Personally the inserts don't interest me, easier to flip them for more rookie cards across other teams.
The best metrics on draft picks/rookies is their rebound and scoring %, the big market teams are going to seek them by a trade deadline if their contracts reach the tail end and if the opposing team offers up draft picks it'll raise some eyebrows on the value side.

Edit: added metrics

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

The generalized point is correct, but those numbers are based on a very loose definition of what constitutes a luxury item. A $2500 home Breville espresso machine is not a luxury item. It’s a crappy home appliance with an insane markup, which is why you can always buy one on sale.

But true luxury goods certainly are popular in lower income “households”. The article correctly points out that a lot of these buyers are young adults with few cost of living expenses thanks to mommy and daddy providing a free roof. Almost half of aged 18-29 adults live at home. I certainly expect the trend to continue as these kids are obsessed with living on the coasts instead of in a place where they can grow their wealth. It should bode well for luxury, cards included.

Wait, you can't grow your wealth living on the coasts?

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Wait, you can't grow your wealth living on the coasts?

Not the way you can in a fly over state.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Wait, you can't grow your wealth living on the coasts?

Almost impossible. I've heard the only way is through LeBron and Patty Mahomes Gold Prizms.