📈Is the correction over? What cards look attractive with an upside potential?📈

[Torro]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Don't worry virtually all cards will continue to drop in value.

What makes you so confident in this, so you think the prices will fall below pre-pandemic levels and continue falling from there? From a logics point of view for it to happen, a lot of people need to leave the hobby, as there are way more people in it now than were before 2018/2019. The hobby will need to die totally to continue this spiral down infinity, so thats the direction you think the hobby is heading? From the bright side of things in the scenario is that the hobby boxes will cost $50 with 2 guaranteed autos, which I would definitely like a lot! But for it to happen, I dont know man, I dont see it. The prices have been dropping for 3 years and people still going after $300 non-licensed boxes.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by Torro

What makes you so confident in this, so you think the prices will fall below pre-pandemic levels and continue falling from there? From a logics point of view for it to happen, a lot of people need to leave the hobby, as there are way more people in it now than were before 2018/2019. The hobby will need to die totally to continue this spiral down infinity, so thats the direction you think the hobby is heading? From the bright side of things in the scenario is that the hobby boxes will cost $50 with 2 guaranteed autos, which I would definitely like a lot! But for it to happen, I dont know man, I dont see it. The prices have been dropping for 3 years and people still going after $300 non-licensed boxes.

I mean, this has how the hobby has always been. Almost all cards trend towards zero and there’s no reason to think that changes.

Pick any mega hyped player today and I guarantee their cards will be worth less next year, the year after, and every subsequent year.

You can get temporary performance bumps over time but that’s it.

The 1% are the game changing players, LeBron, Curry, maybe Jokic of this generation. We will see about Wemby but anyone buying now will lose money

And on top of that there’s the weakening economic backdrop. People can opine about whether we’re in a recession or not but the mid/lower end consumers are being squeezed by costs. The more they get squeezed, the less aggregate demand into an already illiquid market

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Torro

What makes you so confident in this, so you think the prices will fall below pre-pandemic levels and continue falling from there? From a logics point of view for it to happen, a lot of people need to leave the hobby, as there are way more people in it now than were before 2018/2019. The hobby will need to die totally to continue this spiral down infinity, so thats the direction you think the hobby is heading? From the bright side of things in the scenario is that the hobby boxes will cost $50 with 2 guaranteed autos, which I would definitely like a lot! But for it to happen, I dont know man, I dont see it. The prices have been dropping for 3 years and people still going after $300 non-licensed boxes.

This has been the trajectory for 99%+ of what’s been released since the early 90s. It doesn’t matter how many new entrants come to the hobby. They cannot overcome the fact that most rookies flame out, and current production far outpaces demand.

A lot of great cards go down over time unfortunately. 1998 SPA Manning is worth less today than it was 25 years ago. When BGS started, a 1989 UD Griffey gem was $2500+. It sits at $575 today. Cards should be treated as depreciating collectibles, not appreciating assets.

[jcardstore]

People will claim that they're great card investors and they've made so much money but never tell you the whole story.

Most of them made all their money in the 1 time pandemic bump... which had absolutely nothing to do with the cards you bought because everybody won, especially the people who already had higher end cards going into it.

Another dynamic is that they only tell you about the winners. They don't tell you about all the thousands of cards they have sitting in boxes that are now unsellable because they'd be 99% losses.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

People will claim that they're great card investors and they've made so much money but never tell you the whole story.

Most of them made all their money in the 1 time pandemic bump... which had absolutely nothing to do with the cards you bought because everybody won, especially the people who already had higher end cards going into it.

Another dynamic is that they only tell you about the winners. They don't tell you about all the thousands of cards they have sitting in boxes that are now unsellable because they'd be 99% losses.

They will tell you all those losses have been paid for with all their gainz.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

They will tell you all those losses have been paid for with all their gainz.

Can't take a loss if you never sell

the last thing I'll add on that front is that cards that they previously claimed were investments become "PC" cards when they realize they can't sell them for a profit. The only cards that get talked about as investments are the ones that worked out, everything else is just PC

[Torro]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

I mean, this has how the hobby has always been. Almost all cards trend towards zero and there’s no reason to think that changes.

Pick any mega hyped player today and I guarantee their cards will be worth less next year, the year after, and every subsequent year.

You can get temporary performance bumps over time but that’s it.

The 1% are the game changing players, LeBron, Curry, maybe Jokic of this generation. We will see about Wemby but anyone buying now will lose money

And on top of that there’s the weakening economic backdrop. People can opine about whether we’re in a recession or not but the mid/lower end consumers are being squeezed by costs. The more they get squeezed, the less aggregate demand into an already illiquid market

Yeah obviously prospects and top rookies are extremely high risk (not sure why people are willing to pay 5 or even 6 figures for some hyped rookie), it’s 99% of the time bad “investment” (more of a gamble, but odds are worst than in sports betting).

Just the be clear and on the same page, Im not into prospects at all and was thinking about nice Kobe/MJ stuff, UD on card autos, memorabilia, topps chrome refractors and cool inserts/parallels (there is quite a lot that can fit regular collectors budget, maybe just not the on card autos). Is your view the same on this type of cards?

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

People will claim that they're great card investors and they've made so much money but never tell you the whole story.

Most of them made all their money in the 1 time pandemic bump... which had absolutely nothing to do with the cards you bought because everybody won, especially the people who already had higher end cards going into it.

Another dynamic is that they only tell you about the winners. They don't tell you about all the thousands of cards they have sitting in boxes that are now unsellable because they'd be 99% losses.

I see what you are sayings, but it's too broad of a brush.

I personally know two types of people who have made and continue to make money hands over fist in cards and memorabilia:

1. People who know what they are doing, have cash available, and buy and sell quickly for profit

2. People who really understand the card market, know when to sell at a peak, buy a near the bottom, and hold when the card is desirable and drying up.

It takes some talent, knowledge, or whatever you want to call it, but it happens..... just not to the people who jump right in my listening to influencers that are trying to sell them crap.

[Nomad]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

A lot of great cards go down over time unfortunately. 1998 SPA Manning is worth less today than it was 25 years ago. When BGS started, a 1989 UD Griffey gem was $2500+. It sits at $575 today. Cards should be treated as depreciating collectibles, not appreciating assets.

I think also the influencers who reach the younger generation encourage basically just cycling through GOAT slabs. But the far more sustainable approach is to aim for interesting sets and player collections. I remember, it was a Kidd supercollector I met during the pandemic who got me into the Nesmith thing.

So this guy had a pretty amazing set of Kidd inserts and rookies, considering he had been like one of two Kidd supercollectors in the Philippines in the 90s. A couple dozen rare inserts that in a Jordan would be a few hundred to couple thousand in condition, but not actually extremely valuable. I had just purchased the Apprentices Kobe for $700 and I was buying from other 90s collectors, so I was tapped out. But having the prospect of the whole carefully cultivated set and enjoying it as such (love looking through the cards to this day) convinced me to make one more big purchase.

See I didn't profit from the pandemic boom, I bought packs back in the day, not singles off eBay a decade ago, which was the smart move. So $500 is a lot to me. Still love looking through all the beautiful high grade Kidd inserts to this day and he has turned into a pretty decent coach.

Anyway, that got me thinking, apply that strategy but to a modern day player that is affordable and fun to collect. A Nesmith. In this era of numbered and patched cards, go for the truly rare. Build it up over time. Trust me, by the time the supercollection is investment grade, you won't want to sell it but you'll be glad it's there. And you will have learned so much and had fun putting it together.

So yeah, find a Josh Green and go for all his gold hyper Hoops RC /10 for $10 and the like. Someone who has been to the conference finals twice in his first four years with two teams and still isn't on the radar. That's my thinking.

[Torro]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

This has been the trajectory for 99%+ of what’s been released since the early 90s. It doesn’t matter how many new entrants come to the hobby. They cannot overcome the fact that most rookies flame out, and current production far outpaces demand.

A lot of great cards go down over time unfortunately. 1998 SPA Manning is worth less today than it was 25 years ago. When BGS started, a 1989 UD Griffey gem was $2500+. It sits at $575 today. Cards should be treated as depreciating collectibles, not appreciating assets.

Yeah ive seen it myself, used to rip quite a lot of boxes back in 2005-2010, and kept all the cards until now. Pulled a lot of valuable rookies at the time, out of 100 or so great rookie cards that I pulled just 2 of them have the same or greater value than back when I pulled them (Durant and D.Rose RPAs + some low-end Durant rookies are about same value now than back then), all the other stuff that was selling for couple hundreds back then are now selling for $10-20.. The only good thing from keeping everything were the fact that I kept Kobes, MJs and Lebrons that I pulled. Some of them were not worth much back then but are quite valuable now (wish I sold all the rookies back then and bought more GOATs).

Just looking at some of the rookie autos right now, the prices are wild. At the same time you can buy D.Wade rookie auto for ~150$, and his career was huge success. So yeah your hyped rookie autos are likely going to keep falling and falling even if the player will have great career. Based on my experience, its great idea to cash out on the rookies when they are hyped and buy instead GOATs, which are the only long-term cards you should own.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by tjforce

I see what you are sayings, but it's too broad of a brush.

I personally know two types of people who have made and continue to make money hands over fist in cards and memorabilia:

1. People who know what they are doing, have cash available, and buy and sell quickly for profit

2. People who really understand the card market, know when to sell at a peak, buy a near the bottom, and hold when the card is desirable and drying up.

It takes some talent, knowledge, or whatever you want to call it, but it happens..... just not to the people who jump right in my listening to influencers that are trying to sell them crap.

Do people make money in cards? Yes

Brokers, dealers, people who run brick and mortar businesses, etc. Even some flippers are probably making money.

Still that’s a very small percentage of people

Most of the flippers probably *think* they’re making money but ignore the 2nd point I made. They have a flip pile that gets flipped when it’s convenient and profitable and a huge pile of dead money that just gets forgotten unless it becomes convenient again. Hint: it doesn’t it just sits forever

It’s not like a real business where excess inventory is negative and I’m sure they’re not depreciating them for tax purposes

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by Torro

Yeah obviously prospects and top rookies are extremely high risk (not sure why people are willing to pay 5 or even 6 figures for some hyped rookie), it’s 99% of the time bad “investment” (more of a gamble, but odds are worst than in sports betting).

Just the be clear and on the same page, Im not into prospects at all and was thinking about nice Kobe/MJ stuff, UD on card autos, memorabilia, topps chrome refractors and cool inserts/parallels (there is quite a lot that can fit regular collectors budget, maybe just not the on card autos). Is your view the same on this type of cards?

I feel very safe saying that most Kobe’s are gonna be worth less in 10 years than now.

I’ll add a small caveat… they might end up being higher nominally because of how much the dollar is going to be devalued but that’s a different conversation

If you want to measure an investment the nominal is only 1 side of the equation.

Cards have no positive investment qualities, you’d be better off just buying T bills or index funds

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

It’s not like a real business where excess inventory is negative and I’m sure they’re not depreciating them for tax purposes

One of the biggest catalysts of the pandemic era was PWCC's accounting/legal team, and how they enabled some of the biggest players in the hobby to increase their purchasing power.

[hermanotarjeta]

Parallel exhaustion is a real phenomenon.

[Torro]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Cards have no positive investment qualities, you’d be better off just buying T bills or index funds

Well yeah of course, but unfortunately it´s way too boring and there is no excitement in holding bonds or index funds. I love to own and look at my Kobe PC (also some MJ/Lebron/Durant/Curry stuff). It´s a huge stress relief for me, while real investments like stocks are rather adding to my everyday stress levels. Obviously I have real investments as well, but its definitely not fun or exciting (compared to the excitement of adding some great card in my PC that I have been wishing to own since kid).

For those people who jumped in the hobby around pandemics time just for the cash crab or reading how cards have appreciated 1000%, I would recommend to look into some real investment instruments and stay away from cards (as of today I dont believe there are many people left in the hobby with this mindset).

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by Torro

Well yeah of course, but unfortunately it´s way too boring and there is no excitement in holding bonds or index funds. I love to own and look at my Kobe PC (also some MJ/Lebron/Durant/Curry stuff). It´s a huge stress relief for me, while real investments like stocks are rather adding to my everyday stress levels. Obviously I have real investments as well, but its definitely not fun or exciting (compared to the excitement of adding some great card in my PC that I have been wishing to own since kid).

For those people who jumped in the hobby around pandemics time just for the cash crab or reading how cards have appreciated 1000%, I would recommend to look into some real investment instruments and stay away from cards (as of today I dont believe there are many people left in the hobby with this mindset).

This is how a hobby should be.

It also means that it's not an investment for you and there's no sense in treating it as such

[anusinha]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

One of the biggest catalysts of the pandemic era was PWCC's accounting/legal team, and how they enabled some of the biggest players in the hobby to increase their purchasing power.

In hindsight, letting people buy cards on margin was a stupid idea. Not surprised PWCC failed.

[Bosoxfan5990]

Originally Posted by anusinha

In hindsight, letting people buy cards on margin was a stupid idea. Not surprised PWCC failed.

At the time, everyone saw it was a bad idea.

Well, everyone but PWCC

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by Bosoxfan5990

At the time, everyone saw it was a bad idea.

Well, everyone but PWCC

All that was, was exit liquidity for the people holding high end 90s stuff.

They needed more fools to take their bags and so PWCC just provided that.

Of course it blew up in their face

[KhalDrogo]

Margin was the lesser of the evils.

[jcardstore]

The same people were moving the same cards around for years. Covid boom + PWCC gave them the opportunity to cash out for real rather than just selling to their buddies to create new “record” sales

[Ericc5Bears]

Originally Posted by tjforce

I see what you are sayings, but it's too broad of a brush.

I personally know two types of people who have made and continue to make money hands over fist in cards and memorabilia:

1. People who know what they are doing, have cash available, and buy and sell quickly for profit

2. People who really understand the card market, know when to sell at a peak, buy a near the bottom, and hold when the card is desirable and drying up.

It takes some talent, knowledge, or whatever you want to call it, but it happens..... just not to the people who jump right in my listening to influencers that are trying to sell them crap.

I genuinely don't think these people actually exist, or at the very least they haven't been profitable since early to mid 2021.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by Ericc5Bears

I genuinely don't think these people actually exist, or at the very least they haven't been profitable since early to mid 2021.

For what it's worth, I've been profitable since early-to-mid 2021 but it's not because I could time the bottom or peak (no one can) and I also didn't pick up a lot of singles in 2021 (aka didn't overextend myself). I just flipped a lot of wax.

[Nomad]

PWCC was just not very bright. I remember contacting them to see if they would consign the CGC graded Kobe silver in their premier auction. Included a back and front image, in slab. They were like "we can't consign an ungraded error." I was not willing to entrust my card with them, even if it was worthless.

[cms11]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

I feel very safe saying that most Kobe’s are gonna be worth less in 10 years than now.

I’ll add a small caveat… they might end up being higher nominally because of how much the dollar is going to be devalued but that’s a different conversation

If you want to measure an investment the nominal is only 1 side of the equation.

Cards have no positive investment qualities, you’d be better off just buying T bills or index funds

The fact that he's sadly not around to remind people of his greatest is probably going to hurt his values.