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Old 08-28-2024, 01:13 PM   #2476
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Originally Posted by lane121 View Post
Decided to buy NVDA today around 123 when we were at SPX 5588 instead and sold near SPX 5596 when NVDA kept rejecting 126. Sold a couple of cents under at 125.98 for a $894 gain today.
Great equity trade!
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Old 08-28-2024, 02:08 PM   #2477
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Out on that drop. Will look for re-entry.

Loss for the day - $6.2k

Selling doesn't make much sense unless some people got NVDA's numbers early.

Haven't seen anything that would cause this much selling.

Looks like 5550 is next.
Wild. Stopped me out and ran it back up lol

This was the dip of the dip.

MM's played a lot of games today.

It's ok, can't win em all.

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Old 08-29-2024, 08:26 AM   #2478
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Data dropped - strong economy and employment lol.

Last night all indices were down, a lot (NQ 300+, SPX 50). Today all green. Interesting.


SPX: 5600 key level / 5650 top / 5550 bottom

Also on watch - 5643 / 5631 / 5585 / 5562


Watching:

SPY: SPY bounce @ 555, reject @ 562 area
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Old 08-29-2024, 09:48 AM   #2479
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With the close of the 9:30 candle your time does that make it a trend day?

I'll wait for 5650, if we get there. Also, did you catch the 8:54-8:55 move? I thought we'd chop around more at that area though and missed it.
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Old 08-29-2024, 09:50 AM   #2480
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STO NVDA 8/30 120 P @ 2.92 this morning. Very happy with that decision!
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Old 08-29-2024, 11:14 AM   #2481
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Only thing I'm watching is maybe touching ATH on SPY for Put entry, that's it.
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Old 08-29-2024, 12:12 PM   #2482
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With the close of the 9:30 candle your time does that make it a trend day?

I'll wait for 5650, if we get there. Also, did you catch the 8:54-8:55 move? I thought we'd chop around more at that area though and missed it.
No. Trend day for my system the 9:15 bar followed by the 9:30 bar. For a confirmed trend day pattern volume >= 2.5m SPY. Otherwise no trend.

Once trend day is confirmed, I hold a few runners until close or confirmed reversal signal or hit the implied top.

I did not catch the 8:54 move as I had to go pick up a sick kid. Looks like calls were the play this morning.

I see we also hit around 5650 - missed that too. Nice reject @ that level.
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Old 08-29-2024, 12:49 PM   #2483
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What/when I traded: 3 SPY 563P contracts @ 12:28:04 (or 11:28:04 cst)

Thought process and reason for entering trade:

I had the 5643 s/r level marked on my charts (thanks Blazed!), and I got a break at 12:16 (11:16 cst) and the retest at 12:27 (11:27 cst).

Exit plan:

Cut if SPX 5 minute candle closes above the implied top of 5650. If not, hold/trim at 5632 intraday s/r area.

Where I sold:

After entering, I switched back to the 5 minute SPX candle and I ended up selling all 3 contracts @ the 1:10 (12:10 cst) 5 minute candle when it approached 5632 (displaying lower volume than the previous SPY candle with already low volume, so I didn't trim and just sold all contracts). If volume was stronger, then I would have trimmed and moved my stop on the remaining contract to a close above 5637 ATR. Total gain for the day $117.

Not the best entry so I took a little drawdown and upon switching back to the 5 minute the next few candles closed above 5643 s/r actually. A much better entry would have been 12:50 (11:50 cst) at the start of a new SPY candle (volume already showing sellers too) so I really need to focus on getting in towards the start of a new candle instead of the close of one. Fortunately, 1dte SPY is a little bit more forgiving for early entries.
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Old 08-29-2024, 02:03 PM   #2484
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lane121 View Post
What/when I traded: 3 SPY 563P contracts @ 12:28:04 (or 11:28:04 cst)

Thought process and reason for entering trade:

I had the 5643 s/r level marked on my charts (thanks Blazed!), and I got a break at 12:16 (11:16 cst) and the retest at 12:27 (11:27 cst).

Exit plan:

Cut if SPX 5 minute candle closes above the implied top of 5650. If not, hold/trim at 5632 intraday s/r area.

Where I sold:

After entering, I switched back to the 5 minute SPX candle and I ended up selling all 3 contracts @ the 1:10 (12:10 cst) 5 minute candle when it approached 5632 (displaying lower volume than the previous SPY candle with already low volume, so I didn't trim and just sold all contracts). If volume was stronger, then I would have trimmed and moved my stop on the remaining contract to a close above 5637 ATR. Total gain for the day $117.

Not the best entry so I took a little drawdown and upon switching back to the 5 minute the next few candles closed above 5643 s/r actually. A much better entry would have been 12:50 (11:50 cst) at the start of a new SPY candle (volume already showing sellers too) so I really need to focus on getting in towards the start of a new candle instead of the close of one. Fortunately, 1dte SPY is a little bit more forgiving for early entries.
Nice trade! Those puts would be paying right now.
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Old 08-29-2024, 02:04 PM   #2485
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Originally Posted by NYBBFAN View Post
STO NVDA 8/30 120 P @ 2.92 this morning. Very happy with that decision!
Nice trade, NVDA back to 105/100 next month would be nice.
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Old 08-30-2024, 08:11 AM   #2486
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It’s Friday - EOM flows.

SPX: 5600 key level / 5650 top / 5550 bottom

Other areas on watch: 5643 / 5631 / 5585 / 5562


Watching:

SPY reject @ 564-563 area & bounce @ 555. There’s other bounce areas but for today this is the highest probability.

Be patent and don’t force anything. EOM flow can have sharp fast moves as MM’s try to rebalance.
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Old 08-30-2024, 08:53 AM   #2487
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Originally Posted by Blazed View Post
It’s Friday - EOM flows.

SPX: 5600 key level / 5650 top / 5550 bottom

Other areas on watch: 5643 / 5631 / 5585 / 5562


Watching:

SPY reject @ 564-563 area & bounce @ 555. There’s other bounce areas but for today this is the highest probability.

Be patent and don’t force anything. EOM flow can have sharp fast moves as MM’s try to rebalance.

SPX: 5631✅- tried light size of puts in that area as we have been rejecting there all week. Worked out perfect. All out here.

Gains from that trade - $2.3k

Waiting for net entry.

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Old 08-30-2024, 09:26 AM   #2488
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Originally Posted by Blazed View Post
SPX: 5631✅- tried light size of puts in that area as we have been rejecting there all week. Worked out perfect. All out here.

Gains from that trade - $2.3k

Waiting for net entry.

Round 2 worked out so far. Took puts /@ same area off the pop up off consumer confidence. Trimmed @ 10 points left 2 runners. Target 5610 ATR if it can get down there.

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Old 08-30-2024, 09:37 AM   #2489
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I didn't take that initial one, but interestingly I noticed we had a million+ bar within a couple of minutes from the open and then stalled on volume towards the end of the candle
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Old 08-30-2024, 09:42 AM   #2490
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Round 2 worked out so far. Took puts /@ same area off the pop up off consumer confidence. Trimmed @ 10 points left 2 runners. Target 5610 ATR if it can get down there.

Stopped out of runners.

Now waiting to see if SPY can hit ATH's to start a Jan put swing
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Old 08-30-2024, 09:47 AM   #2491
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5631 would have worked out nicely a 3rd time for a 10 pt move. Wow, though I never would have tried it on the 3rd haha
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Old 08-30-2024, 10:01 AM   #2492
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5631 would have worked out nicely a 3rd time for a 10 pt move. Wow, though I never would have tried it on the 3rd haha
Yeah I didn't take it either - thought about it though based on volume - nice reject


Quote:
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Round 2 worked out so far. Took puts /@ same area off the pop up off consumer confidence. Trimmed @ 10 points left 2 runners. Target 5610 ATR if it can get down there.
Now they do the move I was looking for after stopping me out, ha.

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Old 08-30-2024, 10:09 AM   #2493
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What/when I traded: 3 SPY 563P contracts @ 10:01:02 (or 09:01:02 cst)

Thought process and reason for entering trade:

5631 area marked today which was close to the 5632 marked I had yesterday for my full exit on another trade. Buyers were slowing today. Also worth noting, this was the second reject of 5631.

Exit plan:

Cut if SPX 5 minute candle closes above the 5636 ATR as a safety net. If not, hold/trim for a 10pt move and 5609 ATR or 5612 LOD.

Where I sold:

After entering, I switched back to the 5 minute SPX candle and I ended up selling 2 contracts @ SPY VWAP (around an 8pt move). After selling two contracts I looked for the 5609 ATR or 5612 LOD as my next target. However, on my last contract I had to move my stop deeper in profits, so I got stopped out at a 5627 intraday area right before we continued down. Got me good on that last contract lol. Total gain for the day $84.
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Old 08-30-2024, 10:29 AM   #2494
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lane121 View Post
What/when I traded: 3 SPY 563P contracts @ 10:01:02 (or 09:01:02 cst)

Thought process and reason for entering trade:

5631 area marked today which was close to the 5632 marked I had yesterday for my full exit on another trade. Buyers were slowing today. Also worth noting, this was the second reject of 5631.

Exit plan:

Cut if SPX 5 minute candle closes above the 5636 ATR as a safety net. If not, hold/trim for a 10pt move and 5609 ATR or 5612 LOD.

Where I sold:

After entering, I switched back to the 5 minute SPX candle and I ended up selling 2 contracts @ SPY VWAP (around an 8pt move). After selling two contracts I looked for the 5609 ATR or 5612 LOD as my next target. However, on my last contract I had to move my stop deeper in profits, so I got stopped out at a 5627 intraday area right before we continued down. Got me good on that last contract lol. Total gain for the day $84.
That stopped me out too. Pretty sure that was the volume bar that was looking like strong green up until 5630 area then went back and closed red.
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Old 08-30-2024, 10:38 AM   #2495
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Nice little sell off. I wonder if they're going to run it up to ATH's into close.

Calling it a day here. Time to disconnect and enjoy the long weekend.

Market is closed Monday

Next month Fed rate cuts.

As a reminder, rate cuts aren't bullish in an allegedly "strong" economy with strong employment lol.
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Old 09-03-2024, 08:18 AM   #2496
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Data @ 9:45 $ 10.

SPX: 5600 key level / 5650 top / 5550 bottom

Other areas of s/r - 5700 / 5670 / 5643 / 5632 / 5585 / 5560


Watching:

SPY reject @ 565 area (this is where I’ll enter longer dated puts) & bounce @ 555

Short week, important data thurs & fri.
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Old 09-03-2024, 08:58 AM   #2497
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Took puts @ break below & retest of resistance @ 5600

Trimmed @ 10 points - 5580 next target or stop out of runners @ 5604 ATR




Data dropped, lol.

Quote:
U.S MANUFACTURING PMI (AUG) ACTUAL: 47.9 VS 48.0 PREVIOUS; EST 48.1
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Old 09-03-2024, 09:03 AM   #2498
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Took puts @ break below & retest of resistance @ 5600

Trimmed @ 10 points - 5580 next target or stop out of runners @ 5604 ATR




Data dropped, lol.
Added more on retest - following volume & flow.

Trimmed again @ 10 points. Runners will stop @ 5604 or next trim @ 5580




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Old 09-03-2024, 09:07 AM   #2499
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Looked like flow was selling around 9:45 too. I was trying to give data more time to settle. I wasn't looking for calls though unless we reclaimed and retested 5604 ATR with how close we were to the whole psych lol.
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Old 09-03-2024, 09:07 AM   #2500
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Added more on retest - following volume & flow.

Trimmed again @ 10 points. Runners will stop @ 5604 or next trim @ 5580




next trim @ 5580✅- got it. A simple play of following volume and flow.

Heavy trim. 1 runner left. Will cut @ 5590 or next trim @ 5570

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