HOF Pace Tracker

[ironfireman]

Originally Posted by Raleigh504

This is actually 100000% false. He speaks English very well. I think it is either a comfort thing, doesn't want people to know he can speak English just so he won't be bugged in public or some sort of other thing.

OK? I've never seen him speak English. Every interview I've seen with him has a translator. And that limits his fandom and appeal.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by tyrith

Yeah, like that's possible. I do think the MLB is different than in that era - there are literally two batters age 36 or higher than have more than 1 fWAR so far this season, and a total of 14 that have even gotten 50 PAs so far. In 2002 there were eleven players age 36+ (including McGriff and Biggio) that finished the full season at 1.4 fWAR or better, and there were 30 batters that got at least 80 PAs for the season (albeit that one of those was Randy Johnson.)

The modern decline phase seems like it comes earlier and harder than it used to, either due to the increased athleticism of MLB or lack of PEDs to halt it. Like this is the age of the last 3+ WAR season for some guys that we've talked about in recent years:

Evan Longoria: 31
Andrew McCutchen: 30
Nolan Arenado (active at age 33): 31

And we've got Alex Bregman sputtering out at 30, Xander Bogaerts at 31, Manny Machado having his 2nd down season in a row at 31, etc.

There are counter examples - screw using Judge as a comp to anyone that isn't Barry Bonds, but Marcus Semien is the most obvious, along with Jose Altuve (although he's cleary down from peak at age 34), Matt Chapman and Jose Ramirez chugging along at 31, etc. Even then, though, 31 is just four seasons from now for someone like Devers - even if he gets there at 45 WAR, he hasn't finished the race, and he probably has to get to at least 60 to have a real shot. It's absolutely, 100% possible, but if you had ten Rafael Devers I would expect 1-2 of them to actually make it into the Hall on the BBWAA ballot.

Part of this is the guys who are 36 right now debuted in the run of weak position prospect classes that ended with Trout/Harper/Machado. In five years things will be different. I have been saying this for literally a decade, but between Pujols and Trout the very best positional prospects simply didn't pan out.

The other thing re: Devers is his path to the HOF isn't a WAR path. It's 500 HR or 3,000 hits or maybe even both. Dude is signed through his age 36 season and could easily be over 2,300 hits and 400 HR at that point...if not already encroaching on 500. If he still has a pulse, somebody (if not the Red Sox) will sign him to a series of 1 or 2 year deals to get over the hump.

We'll see an earlier version of this with Giancarlo Stanton. He's been basically replacement level over his last 1200 PA, yet he's still batting cleanup for the Yankees. By the time his contract is up after his age 37 season, if he doesn't have 500 HR already somebody will sign him to a one year deal to get him there.

[rwperu34]

One more thing I'd like to point out re: McCutchen, Longoria, and maybe even Arenado; those guys are not going to make the HOF precisely because they didn't have a 3 WAR season after age 31. Typically HOFers are going to be productive in to their 30s. The problem is we won't know who those guys are when they are in their 20s. We also don't know who is going to spike a big season in their late 20s/early 30s.

[awz50]

Originally Posted by ironfireman

OK? I've never seen him speak English. Every interview I've seen with him has a translator. And that limits his fandom and appeal.

Ichiro never or rarely spoke English in his interviews. He is still very very popular.

[NYBBFAN]

Originally Posted by awz50

Ichiro never or rarely spoke English in his interviews. He is still very very popular.

Oh, he spoke some English to Bob Costas

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

One more thing I'd like to point out re: McCutchen, Longoria, and maybe even Arenado; those guys are not going to make the HOF precisely because they didn't have a 3 WAR season after age 31. Typically HOFers are going to be productive in to their 30s. The problem is we won't know who those guys are when they are in their 20s. We also don't know who is going to spike a big season in their late 20s/early 30s.

Not having one 3 WAR season isn't the gap, no. Not having three or four might be - partly because of the actual performance, partly because failure to do so takes them out of getting ABs to continue to accumulate.

Longoria's case looks different if he finished at 2200 hits and 400 HR, which would have been aided significantly if he was still playing this year, for instance. And that 60 WAR number is the point where a lot of the analytically inclined voters are going to jump on board more.

Key with both Longoria and McCutchen is that they had adequate peak to support getting into the HOF. Longoria had a 3 year stretch where he put up 22.2 bWAR, while McCutchen had a 3 year peak at 21.1.

[ironfireman]

Originally Posted by awz50

Ichiro never or rarely spoke English in his interviews. He is still very very popular.

Uhuh. And Ichiro was the 1st hugely successful Japanese hitter immediately winning MVP & ROY...
Until Ramirez joins the Yankees, wins a couple rings and says, "The Red Sox are his daddy," he'll probably continue to be the poster boy for future HOFers who aren't that collectable. Nice player. Underrated.

[ironfireman]

Originally Posted by tyrith

Not having one 3 WAR season isn't the gap, no. Not having three or four might be - partly because of the actual performance, partly because failure to do so takes them out of getting ABs to continue to accumulate.

Longoria's case looks different if he finished at 2200 hits and 400 HR, which would have been aided significantly if he was still playing this year, for instance. And that 60 WAR number is the point where a lot of the analytically inclined voters are going to jump on board more.

Key with both Longoria and McCutchen is that they had adequate peak to support getting into the HOF. Longoria had a 3 year stretch where he put up 22.2 bWAR, while McCutchen had a 3 year peak at 21.1.

Arenado will be HOF because he was elite for 10 yrs at 3B & a good/great bat. McCutchen might get in down the road in some veterans comittee. He is closing in on 2,200 hits. He had 4 yrs where he was 3,1,3 & 5 in MVP voting. Longoria is under 2k hits and never finished higher than 6th in MVP voting.

[RobDerhak]

Salvador Perez is getting closer and closer to cementing his place in Cooperstown, WAR be damned.

He is in his age 33 season...under contract for 2 more years, will likely be extended beyond that since he is one of the best clubhouse guys ever, I think KC will keep him around to christen the new stadium...when his career is all said & done he is going to have...

325-375 HR - He is sitting at 268, getting >350 is not out of the question as he undoubtedly will DH/1b more frequently to save his legs some later in his career and his HR % hasn't been below 4% since 2016...mind you, he has done this in KC...one of the largest, least HR friendly parks in MLB...he is a 400+ guy if he is in a hitter friendly park half his games...voters realize this.

5 Gold Gloves - Probably not a number that will be added to at this point in his career, but his pitch framing has improved, the arm is still there (28% CS this season isn't the near 50% he has been at points in his career, but it is still > League Avg.)

1250 or so RBI - 897 currently, he is going to be hitting behind prime age BWJ for a few more years...pencil him in for 80+ in '25 & '26.

10+ AS Games - 9 currently, Adley will eat into this, Salvy's days of being the leading vote getter are past, but I have no doubt he'll see at least one more Mid Summer Classic

1 Championship & 1 World Series MVP - Look, baseball isn't the NBA...rings aren't the most important factor, but when he wraps up a 16+ year career with one org that includes (at least) 1 WS MVP, that is A factor.

That smile - I'm not some old head that is here to disparage WAR...I think WAR is a useful statistic...but it isn't the ONLY statistic and more HOF voters are looking at other factors again as they are voting. Salvy unquestionably being one of the real good guys in the league, with a sparkling reputation and no PED questions is something that will resonate with voters

It is clearly a talking point within the org and something they are trying to message early...the TV & radio broadcast crews, at a minimum of once a game will mention "Future HOFer" when referencing Salvy.

It seems the biggest argument against him is his WAR, which (IMO) is overly penalized by his poor pitch framing his first 10 years or so...the really ridiculous part of that is pitch framing is an aspect of the game that will 100% be obsolete within a decade, when an automatic strike zone is put in place, hell it might even be obsolete as HOF voters are weighing in on Salvy's career...

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by RobDerhak

Salvador Perez is getting closer and closer to cementing his place in Cooperstown, WAR be damned.

He is in his age 33 season...under contract for 2 more years, will likely be extended beyond that since he is one of the best clubhouse guys ever, I think KC will keep him around to christen the new stadium...when his career is all said & done he is going to have...

325-375 HR - He is sitting at 268, getting >350 is not out of the question as he undoubtedly will DH/1b more frequently to save his legs some later in his career and his HR % hasn't been below 4% since 2016.

5 Gold Gloves - Probably not a number that will be added to at this point in his career, but his pitch framing has improved, the arm is still there (28% CS this season isn't the near 50% he has been at points in his career, but it is still > League Avg.)

1250 or so RBI - 897 currently, he is going to be hitting behind prime age BWJ for a few more years...pencil him in for 80+ in '25 & '26.

10+ AS Games - 9 currently, Adley will eat into this, Salvy's days of being the leading vote getter are past, but I have no doubt he'll see at least one more Mid Summer Classic

1 Championship & 1 World Series MVP - Look, baseball isn't the NBA...rings aren't the most important factor, but when he wraps up a 16+ year career with one org that includes (at least) 1 WS MVP, that is A factor.

That smile - I'm not some old head that is here to disparage WAR...I think WAR is a useful statistic...but it isn't the ONLY statistic and more HOF voters are looking at other factors again as they are voting. Salvy unquestionably being one of the real good guys in the league, with a sparkling reputation and no PED questions is something that will resonate with voters

It is clearly a talking point within the org and something they are trying to message early...the TV & radio broadcast crews, at a minimum of once a game will mention "Future HOFer" when referencing Salvy.

It seems the biggest argument against him is his WAR, which (IMO) is overly penalized by his poor pitch framing his first 10 years or so...the really ridiculous part of that is pitch framing is an aspect of the game that will 100% be obsolete within a decade, when an automatic strike zone is put in place, hell it might even be obsolete as HOF voters are weighing in on Salvy's career...

I’m a big Salvy fan and think that, at worst, he gets in from the Veterans Committee at some point.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by RobDerhak

Salvador Perez is getting closer and closer to cementing his place in Cooperstown, WAR be damned.

He is in his age 33 season...under contract for 2 more years, will likely be extended beyond that since he is one of the best clubhouse guys ever, I think KC will keep him around to christen the new stadium...when his career is all said & done he is going to have...

325-375 HR - He is sitting at 268, getting >350 is not out of the question as he undoubtedly will DH/1b more frequently to save his legs some later in his career and his HR % hasn't been below 4% since 2016...mind you, he has done this in KC...one of the largest, least HR friendly parks in MLB...he is a 400+ guy if he is in a hitter friendly park half his games...voters realize this.

5 Gold Gloves - Probably not a number that will be added to at this point in his career, but his pitch framing has improved, the arm is still there (28% CS this season isn't the near 50% he has been at points in his career, but it is still > League Avg.)

1250 or so RBI - 897 currently, he is going to be hitting behind prime age BWJ for a few more years...pencil him in for 80+ in '25 & '26.

10+ AS Games - 9 currently, Adley will eat into this, Salvy's days of being the leading vote getter are past, but I have no doubt he'll see at least one more Mid Summer Classic

1 Championship & 1 World Series MVP - Look, baseball isn't the NBA...rings aren't the most important factor, but when he wraps up a 16+ year career with one org that includes (at least) 1 WS MVP, that is A factor.

That smile - I'm not some old head that is here to disparage WAR...I think WAR is a useful statistic...but it isn't the ONLY statistic and more HOF voters are looking at other factors again as they are voting. Salvy unquestionably being one of the real good guys in the league, with a sparkling reputation and no PED questions is something that will resonate with voters

It is clearly a talking point within the org and something they are trying to message early...the TV & radio broadcast crews, at a minimum of once a game will mention "Future HOFer" when referencing Salvy.

It seems the biggest argument against him is his WAR, which (IMO) is overly penalized by his poor pitch framing his first 10 years or so...the really ridiculous part of that is pitch framing is an aspect of the game that will 100% be obsolete within a decade, when an automatic strike zone is put in place, hell it might even be obsolete as HOF voters are weighing in on Salvy's career...

Well put. Framing is exactly why I ignore fWAR. rWAR doesn’t use it. Not only will it be obsolete, the metric doesn’t exist for the entirety of history except for what will be about a 10 window. Salvy’s case is pretty strong already. Just a normal career the rest of the way and he’s a lock. Hard to believe, but he actually has the highest OBP of any catcher in the AL.

Also, WAR is always going to look off on catchers because they don’t typically play as much or as long. But as of right now he’s already #32 all-time in WAR among catchers, and has a solid chance at cracking the top 20 by the time he’s retired. Here’s hopin’.

[itsbaytime]

Originally Posted by ironfireman

Uhuh. And Ichiro was the 1st hugely successful Japanese hitter immediately winning MVP & ROY...
Until Ramirez joins the Yankees, wins a couple rings and says, "The Red Sox are his daddy," he'll probably continue to be the poster boy for future HOFers who aren't that collectable. Nice player. Underrated.

I guess I will have to speak up for JRAM. I have lived in the Cleveland area my entire life and this guy will probably have a statue outside the stadium one day. He is trending to be a lifetime Cleveland guy, headed on a HOF path, beat up one of the all time loudmouth aholes (Tim Anderson), and is generally beloved here for his hustle and overall awesomeness. He does have 4 top 5 MVP finishes (with another coming this year??). If you look at his card prices, they have definitely started trending upward in the last few years. It is much harder to get any deals or anything good for under market. I am not delusional enough to think he would ever be as popular as Judge or Soto. I just think he is going to end up on the upper tier of the midcard guys. I do know that I love collecting his cards and watching him play.

PS if he ever played for the Yankees it would honestly kill his collectible-ness for a while.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by itsbaytime

I guess I will have to speak up for JRAM. I have lived in the Cleveland area my entire life and this guy will probably have a statue outside the stadium one day. He is trending to be a lifetime Cleveland guy, headed on a HOF path, beat up one of the all time loudmouth aholes (Tim Anderson), and is generally beloved here for his hustle and overall awesomeness. He does have 4 top 5 MVP finishes (with another coming this year??). If you look at his card prices, they have definitely started trending upward in the last few years. It is much harder to get any deals or anything good for under market. I am not delusional enough to think he would ever be as popular as Judge or Soto. I just think he is going to end up on the upper tier of the midcard guys. I do know that I love collecting his cards and watching him play.

PS if he ever played for the Yankees it would honestly kill his collectible-ness for a while.

I would love JRam to play somewhere other than Cleveland please.

[tyrith]

Salvador Perez's issue comes to one big number: OBP. His career OBP is only .303, and there isn't a player that finished their career after the 70s that's been inducted with an OBP within 20 points of that number. Pudge's career OBP is .334, but he played until he was 39 and tanked his career rate stats for 5 years or so at the end.

If Perez gets 400 HR while actually still playing catcher at least half the time over the balance of his career, maybe there's a BBWAA case that holds up for him. The Vet Committee will do whatever goofy stuff it's going to do. But put aside fWAR - even if he plays four more years averaging 2.5 bWAR per season (which is extremely aggressive considering he's age 34 and hasn't been north of the high 2s since age 31) the only batter to have gotten in anytime recently with a lower career total would be the awful Harold Baines vet committee selection.

TBH, I rate Perez's chances of getting in on the BBWAA ballot to be pretty close to zero barring some late career heroics - it only takes 25% of the electorate to keep him out, and the portion of the voting pool that cares about advanced stats just continues to grow every year. And I don't really care what the vet committee does at this point, they're gonna do what they're gonna do, and the hobby doesn't really care what they do either.

[pezzicle]

Originally Posted by Biohazarddfl

I feel like he ends up in Evan Longoria territory too, but I keep looking up every September and saying, dang, he really came back. Still something to be said for making a deep run every season of his career(seemingly)

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

i trade for him every May/June in fantasy lol

[Biohazarddfl]

Originally Posted by pezzicle

i trade for him every May/June in fantasy lol

I would not want to compete against you. Very wise

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by tyrith

Salvador Perez's issue comes to one big number: OBP. His career OBP is only .303, and there isn't a player that finished their career after the 70s that's been inducted with an OBP within 20 points of that number. Pudge's career OBP is .334, but he played until he was 39 and tanked his career rate stats for 5 years or so at the end.

If Perez gets 400 HR while actually still playing catcher at least half the time over the balance of his career, maybe there's a BBWAA case that holds up for him. The Vet Committee will do whatever goofy stuff it's going to do. But put aside fWAR - even if he plays four more years averaging 2.5 bWAR per season (which is extremely aggressive considering he's age 34 and hasn't been north of the high 2s since age 31) the only batter to have gotten in anytime recently with a lower career total would be the awful Harold Baines vet committee selection.

TBH, I rate Perez's chances of getting in on the BBWAA ballot to be pretty close to zero barring some late career heroics - it only takes 25% of the electorate to keep him out, and the portion of the voting pool that cares about advanced stats just continues to grow every year. And I don't really care what the vet committee does at this point, they're gonna do what they're gonna do, and the hobby doesn't really care what they do either.

9x All-Star (and counting) with 5 Gold Gloves, the best Catcher in the AL during his era, there really wouldn’t be any precedent for keeping him out. I’d rate his chances, based on his current path, at 50/50 the BBWAA would induct him without doing much of anything else. But, he now has a chance to be the catcher on two different Royals playoff eras…that could cement his chances.

WAR is a lot less relevant for catchers when it comes to Hall of Fame voting. We will see this when Posey gets in.

Also, Baines was not an awful selection; he just went in sooner than expected.

[ironfireman]

Originally Posted by itsbaytime

I guess I will have to speak up for JRAM. I have lived in the Cleveland area my entire life and this guy will probably have a statue outside the stadium one day. He is trending to be a lifetime Cleveland guy, headed on a HOF path, beat up one of the all time loudmouth aholes (Tim Anderson), and is generally beloved here for his hustle and overall awesomeness. He does have 4 top 5 MVP finishes (with another coming this year??). If you look at his card prices, they have definitely started trending upward in the last few years. It is much harder to get any deals or anything good for under market. I am not delusional enough to think he would ever be as popular as Judge or Soto. I just think he is going to end up on the upper tier of the midcard guys. I do know that I love collecting his cards and watching him play.

PS if he ever played for the Yankees it would honestly kill his collectible-ness for a while.

Of course Cleveland fans are going to love and collect JRAM. He's a future HOF who has only played for Cleveland. But outside of the Cleveland metro area and Bani' Dominica... he's just not as collectable as his stats suggest he should be.
And while him going to another large market club like the Yanks or Dodgers would dampen his collectableness in Cleveland... his prices would go up and his collectability would go up.
I know you probably love Cleveland but they are 20th in attendance while winning the division.

[ironfireman]

Originally Posted by tyrith

Salvador Perez's issue comes to one big number: OBP. His career OBP is only .303, and there isn't a player that finished their career after the 70s that's been inducted with an OBP within 20 points of that number. Pudge's career OBP is .334, but he played until he was 39 and tanked his career rate stats for 5 years or so at the end.

If Perez gets 400 HR while actually still playing catcher at least half the time over the balance of his career, maybe there's a BBWAA case that holds up for him. The Vet Committee will do whatever goofy stuff it's going to do. But put aside fWAR - even if he plays four more years averaging 2.5 bWAR per season (which is extremely aggressive considering he's age 34 and hasn't been north of the high 2s since age 31) the only batter to have gotten in anytime recently with a lower career total would be the awful Harold Baines vet committee selection.

TBH, I rate Perez's chances of getting in on the BBWAA ballot to be pretty close to zero barring some late career heroics - it only takes 25% of the electorate to keep him out, and the portion of the voting pool that cares about advanced stats just continues to grow every year. And I don't really care what the vet committee does at this point, they're gonna do what they're gonna do, and the hobby doesn't really care what they do either.

Perez will probably make the BWAA Hall if he plays it out another couple more years. His OBP won't matter much as his OPS+ is 105 (119 this year) and he'll probably be 300+ HRs which is 4-8 all time at catcher. Add to that 5 Gold GLoves, WS MVP, 9x and counting AS games...
It'll also depend on JT Realumuto, Will Smith & Adley Ruschman - JT is Salvy's only peer and kinda trails him in many areas - Will Smith will probably be approacing retirement age when Salvy is 5 year retired and eligable - Ruschman will probably be approaching his mid 30s too - so people will be looking at their stats and accomplishments and comparing.
I doubt he's a 1 st ballot guy, but I'd bet he's over 50% and then it'll be pretty quick, 2-3 years.

[itsbaytime]

Originally Posted by ironfireman

Of course Cleveland fans are going to love and collect JRAM. He's a future HOF who has only played for Cleveland. But outside of the Cleveland metro area and Bani' Dominica... he's just not as collectable as his stats suggest he should be.
And while him going to another large market club like the Yanks or Dodgers would dampen his collectableness in Cleveland... his prices would go up and his collectability would go up.
I know you probably love Cleveland but they are 20th in attendance while winning the division.

I guess agree to disagree. Lindor is currently worth less now than when he was in Cleveland. Explain that one? Also, we have the smallest stadium in the MLB (that is also under construction and even smaller than normal) and I am very aware of the attendance. Some of it has to do with longterm effects of the name change and the general hatred of the Dolans. If you look at his card prices they are definitely pretty healthy right now.

[Raleigh504]

If JRam can lead the team to a WS this year and have a post season to remember (clutch hit or game winning ones) then I think his popularity would spike up.

[ironfireman]

Originally Posted by itsbaytime

I guess agree to disagree. Lindor is currently worth less now than when he was in Cleveland. Explain that one? Also, we have the smallest stadium in the MLB (that is also under construction and even smaller than normal) and I am very aware of the attendance. Some of it has to do with longterm effects of the name change and the general hatred of the Dolans. If you look at his card prices they are definitely pretty healthy right now.

Lindor was "better" and younger when he was in Cleveland. .833 OPS and 2 gold gloves... 25 yr old coming off those elite first 5 seasons. Then he stumbled a bit in 2020, but it was a short weird season. Then big trade to the Mets and he he had his worst year .734 OPS missed almost 40 games. And you know how cards are. If you're not exceding or at least meeting expectations, especially in your mid late 20s, prices are gonna go down. They'd probably be lower if he was still in Cleveland.

And I'm not trying to disparage Cleveland or JRam - I just think JRam should be more collectable and offered some ideas as to why he isn't - Cleveland, Non English speaking, not super elite, kinda fugly...

Also, do you think Cleveland has a larger fanbase than:
Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, Red Sox, Giants, Braves, Mets, Phillies, Orioles? And I'd put the Reds & Tigers ahead of Cleveland too maybe even Pitt - as far as collectors and vintage stuff goes. I have a little shop and do card shows every month and never had anyone ask about JRam and I've had people ask about all kinds of players like Rick Dempsey, Reggie Sanders, Don Zimmer...

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by Raleigh504

If JRam can lead the team to a WS this year and have a post season to remember (clutch hit or game winning ones) then I think his popularity would spike up.

[Stifle]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

9x All-Star (and counting) with 5 Gold Gloves, the best Catcher in the AL during his era, there really wouldn’t be any precedent for keeping him out. I’d rate his chances, based on his current path, at 50/50 the BBWAA would induct him without doing much of anything else. But, he now has a chance to be the catcher on two different Royals playoff eras…that could cement his chances.

WAR is a lot less relevant for catchers when it comes to Hall of Fame voting. We will see this when Posey gets in.

Also, Baines was not an awful selection; he just went in sooner than expected.

Salvy’s stats / career is strikingly similar to that of Bill Freehan, 11 x AS, 5 x GG, if Silver Slugger would have been around in the early 60’s, Freehan would have received his fair share. Both were World Series winning catchers.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

Also, Baines was not an awful selection; he just went in sooner than expected.

Harold Baines peak season was 4.3 bWAR and he had a total of 38.8. The next lowest position player in bWAR whose career ended after 1980 was Jim Rice...at 47.7. His career bWAR is less Anthony Rizzo. The only reason why he even got to accumulation totals like he has is because he's 38th all time in plate appearances...three places ahead of Johnny Damon, who had 2700 hits, is only giving up 10 points of OBP and 30 of slugging, who played center field for most of his career, 400 SBs, and who didn't make it to a 2nd ballot on the BBWAA vote and who no one is arguing should be in the Hall.

I'm sorry, but Harold Baines being in the HOF is indefensible. Defense matters. Positions matter. The reasons why fWAR has Salvador Perez's career value as less than Will Smith's matter, even if can dispute the degree. And we are, fortunately, slowly developing at least a big chunk of the BBWAA electorate that isn't beholden to the arbitrary voting decisions of managers on Gold Gloves and players and fans on the ASG.