First Buzz: 2023 Donruss Optic football cards

[mossoholic]

Confirmed FOTL case sale for over $20k.

[sethc1020]

Originally Posted by kipgen

It's cool that the big hits are more common but doesn't that bring their value down a bit outside the serialized versions?

I would say a lot more than a bit if this keeps up. Its either a huge mistake in collation and there won't be a lot in hobby OR they mass produced them. If its the latter down goes Frazier.

[abovethesink]

Panini has had all sorts of issues with printing and collation since Fanatics bought their printers. Collation is by far the likelier explanation. There just aren't going to be Downtowns in tons of hobby cases. I am hoping my hobby box as a pre-order still has a chance if it is in an earlier printed case. Good luck getting one of these out of any later printed case.

[abovethesink]

Also, my hobby box is arriving today from Dave and Adams, so the release of the product is not delayed. Panini's drop on their website is delayed, but expect these to be in your hobby shops this morning if the shipments have arrived.

[DrZman]

Originally Posted by bryanscs

VIP Rips just had a 26 Downtown FOTL case.
We The Hobby had 11 Downtowns half case.
Mitch's Box Breaks had 15 Downtowns
LuckBox Sports Cards had 21 Downtowns

Well this should be fun to watch unfold.

[brothertona]

Downtown Count

We the hobby: 25 B
Backyard: 25
Szn: 25
Pullman: 55
City: 21
Cardboard: 37 (3 cases)
elite rips = 25
Ballers bank 30+

[abovethesink]

Jesus. This is nuts. Either this is one of the worst collations of all time and everything after the first batch of FOTL/Hobby will be worthless without an AR auto or a low numbered CJ, or they really did try to drive hype for a short term boost this season at the expense of their likely final Optic product next year. I am still going with the collation explanation as more likely, but my god it has to be even worse than I dreamed if that is the case.

[kipgen]

The price on these is already out of control, even with the uptick in downtown pulls

Not worth

[brothertona]

I just hope that this finally leads to the death of the Downtown, this un-numbered parallels that Panini has put out, Kabooms/Downtowns are #@#@#@#@ - and the company is #@#@#@#@ for continuing to pedal them as rare when they've never been rare and there is literally zero data for how many there are.

[abovethesink]

Originally Posted by kipgen

The price on these is already out of control, even with the uptick in downtown pulls

Not worth

Well if this holds, the Downtowns will plummet correspondingly in value, making them an even worse buy.

BUT for me, Optic is the one thing I wait for every year. I am very attached the the brand. If they listed the price as my left arm, I'd go out and get the hacksaw from the barn, some towels, and find a box. I can't help myself. I have a DA hobby box coming today and I am in on the Niners for a case from Layton breaking on Friday.

I've been good about not overpaying this whole cycle otherwise at least, for me anyway. I bought my annual Score box to split with my oldest kid that we always do and I got a box of Phoenix after the price fell. I think that is it. Just some retail of the bigger releases, and not a whole lot, and a bunch of 49ers PC singles with a few lower priced rookies from other teams I like (Kincaid, Downs, and Mims mostly) mixed in to sell later if I gamble right.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by brothertona

I just hope that this finally leads to the death of the Downtown, this un-numbered parallels that Panini has put out, Kabooms/Downtowns are #@#@#@#@ - and the company is #@#@#@#@ for continuing to pedal them as rare when they've never been rare and there is literally zero data for how many there are.

But aren't a ton of these Downtowns being pulled numbered? If it's a collation thing and not the mass produced thing FOTL is still way underpriced.

[Bosoxfan5990]

Originally Posted by brothertona

I just hope that this finally leads to the death of the Downtown, this un-numbered parallels that Panini has put out, Kabooms/Downtowns are #@#@#@#@ - and the company is #@#@#@#@ for continuing to pedal them as rare when they've never been rare and there is literally zero data for how many there are.

Exactly.

[jduds]

Originally Posted by brothertona

I just hope that this finally leads to the death of the Downtown, this un-numbered parallels that Panini has put out, Kabooms/Downtowns are #@#@#@#@ - and the company is #@#@#@#@ for continuing to pedal them as rare when they've never been rare and there is literally zero data for how many there are.

The PSA pop report is a pretty good starting point for figuring the print run. That and the pop of some numbered cards from the same set gives you a pretty good guess. It might not get it exactly, but if you look at a few players you should get a range that is good enough to judge scarcity.

[brothertona]

Not everyone grades cards and that would mean the product run is completely opened. That provides very little context on what the print run is for those parallels.

[brothertona]

We have zero visibility on what the print run is for Kabooms/Downtowns. They refuse to release that information.

[Zeldafanatic15]

I came here after I saw the Downtown thing, were the crazy number of hits strictly from FOTL breaks? I'm really curious what hobby will look like if that's the case. I feel like that's either a collation issue or Panini made sure to load those cases up.

Sent from my SM-S928U1 using Tapatalk

[SleeperCards]

Originally Posted by Zeldafanatic15

I came here after I saw the Downtown thing, were the crazy number of hits strictly from FOTL breaks? I'm really curious what hobby will look like if that's the case. I feel like that's either a collation issue or Panini made sure to load those cases up.

Sent from my SM-S928U1 using Tapatalk

Will be hilarious if the Hobby cases are relatively dry of DTs, people will rage.

[Zeldafanatic15]

Originally Posted by SleeperCards

Will be hilarious if the Hobby cases are relatively dry of DTs, people will rage.

That's gonna be my guess. One of the breakers that had a crazy DT filled case yesterday did it again today, again a FOTL case. Kind of funny that hobby was "delayed" til Friday.

Sent from my SM-S928U1 using Tapatalk

[ohio_mba]

Originally Posted by brothertona

Downtown Count

We the hobby: 25 B
Backyard: 25
Szn: 25
Pullman: 55
City: 21
Cardboard: 37 (3 cases)
elite rips = 25
Ballers bank 30+

That's so funny. I was in the WtH room yesterday and I was talking crap about Backyard getting juiced cases.

These guys in WtH were simping so hard for BYB. Here's a few quotes:

"If you believe cases are juiced it's the same thing as believing the earth is flat"

"Anyone who says cases are loaded tells me you don't know how this all works."

"BYB breaks so much product they are going to come across more of the crazy cases."

These guys were making me sick. At one point one of them jokingly says "we've got a juiced case right out there by the door."

Now I come in here and find out that all these casino breakers are hitting juiced cases. Now my new conspiracy is that the cases WERE intentionally juiced and it was known by the carnies that all of them would receive some.

[brothertona]

Do I think Backyard breaks an inordinate amount of boxes likely improving the odds of getting product hits absolutely, but do I also think for Panini this is great marketing. People are buying heavy into breaks in products where the biggest QB/draft picks have zero autos.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Zeldafanatic15]

I turned on a break that should be starting soon, FOTL case, no Downtowns in first 6 boxes. He'll be breaking the other 6 soon.

Had to turn the sound off. I just can't with some people.

Sent from my SM-S928U1 using Tapatalk

[footfutbol]

Originally Posted by brothertona

Do I think Backyard breaks an inordinate amount of boxes likely improving the odds of getting product hits absolutely, but do I also think for Panini this is great marketing. People are buying heavy into breaks in products where the biggest QB/draft picks have zero autos.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I don't understand how this benefits Panini really at all. The break product was already sold so the breakers profit extra, not panini. Also, it could kill the retail product if downtown are limited, but let's be real, degens will buy this no matter what.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by Zeldafanatic15

I turned on a break that should be starting soon, FOTL case, no Downtowns in first 6 boxes. He'll be breaking the other 6 soon.

Had to turn the sound off. I just can't with some people.

Sent from my SM-S928U1 using Tapatalk

We know it's happening in FOTL. The big question is hobby. If hobby cases are hard to hit Downtowns in who knows how high FOTL cases can go. If some hobby cases have 20+ Downtowns too then obviously production is up.

[abovethesink]

My hobby box did not have a Downtown, or honestly anything of substantial value. I got some good vets on the numbered cards, but I took a huge L financially as I figured I would. Nice looking cards though and it was fun to have something to open with potential for the first time. Now I won't buy another box of anything until Score comes out (annual tradition with my oldest kid from when he was little that we still like to do even though he is 14 now) and the not until it is time to flush money down the Optic bin again,

[Boo]

Originally Posted by brothertona

Do I think Backyard breaks an inordinate amount of boxes likely improving the odds of getting product hits absolutely, but do I also think for Panini this is great marketing. People are buying heavy into breaks in products where the biggest QB/draft picks have zero autos.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This. I'm not sure if people don't know this or just don't care.