HOF Pace Tracker

[Biohazarddfl]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Aside from some buzz with his May HR streak, he's quietly having a very nice season. While he's on a HOF trajectory, the tracker post was suggesting that he would have been way ahead had he not missed a big chunk of two seasons.

Got it. That makes sense. Thanks

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[Biohazarddfl]

I don't understand the strikeouts to hits ratio conversation. Voters will not be interested in this at all in the future.

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[SmokeyJ]

The perpetual underrating of Lindor baffles me. Essentially, he plays every day, 30/30 type hitter, 90+ percentile in baserunning, 90+ in fielding and outs above average. Switch hitter that sprays the ball all over the field.

His last 3 years of OPS+ have been better than all but one of his years in Cleveland. Yet the story even from many Mets fans is that he used to be good and the Mets are overpaying for him.

With just a few more points of fWAR, the only Shortstops higher than him all-time will be either Hall of Famers or A-Rod, Bill Dahlen, Bert Campaneris, and 19th Century star Joe Glasscock. And this is at 30 years old.

I mean, check out this baseball savant page: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb

And that's after a horrendous start to the year.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by Biohazarddfl

I don't understand the strikeouts to hits ratio conversation. Voters will not be interested in this at all in the future.

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It was just the stat of the day on BO. Really has nothing to do with us talking about the HOF in general.

[Biohazarddfl]

Originally Posted by SmokeyJ

The perpetual underrating of Lindor baffles me. Essentially, he plays every day, 30/30 type hitter, 90+ percentile in baserunning, 90+ in fielding and outs above average. Switch hitter that sprays the ball all over the field.

His last 3 years of OPS+ have been better than all but one of his years in Cleveland. Yet the story even from many Mets fans is that he used to be good and the Mets are overpaying for him.

With just a few more points of fWAR, the only Shortstops higher than him all-time will be either Hall of Famers or A-Rod, Bill Dahlen, Bert Campaneris, and 19th Century star Joe Glasscock. And this is at 30 years old.

I mean, check out this baseball savant page: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb

And that's after a horrendous start to the year.

He is a strange case. I think he is on his way to being a HOF lock and agree with all of your performance points. As a Mets fan though, he drives me crazy and does not make the impact that you'd expect from his WAR numbers or the salary he is paid.

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[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by SmokeyJ

The perpetual underrating of Lindor baffles me...

Yet the story even from many Mets fans is that he used to be good and the Mets are overpaying for him.

...And that's after a horrendous start to the year.

I like Lindor but presume an average Mets fan saw him hit about .280 in Cleveland now seeing him hitting closer to .250 in NY with career highs in strikeouts. I won't say he's overpaid, but see the perspective of those Mets fans who anticipated 2017-19 production and are not quite seeing it.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I like Lindor but presume an average Mets fan saw him hit about .280 in Cleveland now seeing him hitting closer to .250 in NY with career highs in strikeouts. I won't say he's overpaid, but see the perspective of those Mets fans who anticipated 2017-19 production and are not quite seeing it.

I think that's the point. They ARE seeing 2017-2019 production, they just don't realize it because they are hung up on batting average and strikeouts, both of which don't mean nearly as much for player value as other things. Look at WAR and OPS+ and you'll see he actually IS producing at a strikingly similar rate to those earlier years.

[SmokeyJ]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

I think that's the point. They ARE seeing 2017-2019 production, they just don't realize it because they are hung up on batting average and strikeouts, both of which don't mean nearly as much for player value as other things. Look at WAR and OPS+ and you'll see he actually IS producing at a strikingly similar rate to those earlier years.

Yes. Exactly. He hasn't declined and, in fact, has had some better years in New York than in Cleveland. But for some reason I haven't figured out, to many people it doesn't "feel like" he's as good now and he no longer passes the "eye test" despite what the stats say.

I don't understand not enjoying a good player playing well on your favorite team.

It's also odd to me how much many baseball fans undervalue defense and baserunning. If someone hits 5 more HRs and has a batting average 15 points higher but is an awful defender, then it negates those higher stats.

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

I think that's the point. They ARE seeing 2017-2019 production, they just don't realize it because they are hung up on batting average and strikeouts, both of which don't mean nearly as much for player value as other things. Look at WAR and OPS+ and you'll see he actually IS producing at a strikingly similar rate to those earlier years.

Lindor (and Correa) are PCs guys for me

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I like Lindor but presume an average Mets fan saw him hit about .280 in Cleveland now seeing him hitting closer to .250 in NY with career highs in strikeouts. I won't say he's overpaid, but see the perspective of those Mets fans who anticipated 2017-19 production and are not quite seeing it.

Agreed, but let's face it, players who sign big, long term free agent contracts never live up to the contract. It's just not possible because of the amount of money, the age of the players on the back half of those deals, and most importantly - fan expectations.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

Agreed, but let's face it, players who sign big, long term free agent contracts never live up to the contract. It's just not possible because of the amount of money, the age of the players on the back half of those deals, and most importantly - fan expectations.

Skip, you know advanced stats as well as anyone. I'm surprised you agree that his production is down from 2017-2019. I simply don't see it.

[ironfireman]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Skip, you know advanced stats as well as anyone. I'm surprised you agree that his production is down from 2017-2019. I simply don't see it.

Not Skip but his OPS is down 50+ pts from Cleveland to NYC - yes his OPS+ is the same because the offensive environment is down all around but to the casual fan going from a .833 OPS & 2 gold gloves to a .781 OPS and no gold gloves ADD IN a Mega$$$$ contract and only one lost wild card series in 3+ yrs... I get it. It's dumb, but I get it.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by ironfireman

Not Skip but his OPS is down 50+ pts from Cleveland to NYC - yes his OPS+ is the same because the offensive environment is down all around but to the casual fan going from a .833 OPS & 2 gold gloves to a .781 OPS and no gold gloves ADD IN a Mega$$$$ contract and only one lost wild card series in 3+ yrs... I get it. It's dumb, but I get it.

True. I get it that a casual fan wouldn't likely know better. I guess I didn't take it I was dealing with casual fans in this thread.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Skip, you know advanced stats as well as anyone. I'm surprised you agree that his production is down from 2017-2019. I simply don't see it.

Sorry, I wasn’t suggesting his production was down. I was pointing out that big contracts never work because of fan expectations.

[Jeter1020]

What are Bryce Harper’s HOF chances currently? I know he’s had health concerns the last few years


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[redauto5]

Originally Posted by Jeter1020

What are Bryce Harper’s HOF chances currently? I know he’s had health concerns the last few years


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I'd say about 97%. Barring a career ending injury or off the field shinnanigans he's pretty much a lock to me. Bryce would have to have a major dip in production to not get to minimum WAR thresholds, and I just don't see that happening any time soon.

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[Jeter1020]

Originally Posted by redauto5

I'd say about 97%. Barring a career ending injury or off the field shinnanigans he's pretty much a lock to me. Bryce would have to have a major dip in production to not get to minimum WAR thresholds, and I just don't see that happening any time soon.

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Just got a big card of his so I’m invested now


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[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by Jeter1020

Just got a big card of his so I’m invested now


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Sharing is caring!

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by Jeter1020

What are Bryce Harper’s HOF chances currently? I know he’s had health concerns the last few years


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People here seem pretty convinced that Lindor is getting into the Hall, so you can basically start chiseling Harper’s HOF plaque now. He’s a lock.

[tyrith]

Harper isn't a he's in if he was never productive again lock, but if he gets to 2000/400 he's gonna make it. Two MVPs are a ticket in even if his numbers are borderline. He could also hit 500 HRs and finish with 75 WAR and get 95% of the vote on the 1st ballot.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by ironfireman

Not Skip but his OPS is down 50+ pts from Cleveland to NYC - yes his OPS+ is the same because the offensive environment is down all around but to the casual fan going from a .833 OPS & 2 gold gloves to a .781 OPS and no gold gloves ADD IN a Mega$$$$ contract and only one lost wild card series in 3+ yrs... I get it. It's dumb, but I get it.

Yeah, his decline on offense vs 2017 and 2019 (not his elite 2018) is about 80% mirrored by the decline in league offense, particularly in SLG.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by Jeter1020

What are Bryce Harper’s HOF chances currently? I know he’s had health concerns the last few years


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He’s not there yet, but he’s well on his way. Harper’s most similar player statistically at this age is Barry Bonds. Essentially, we’ll get to see what Bonds might have been had he not succumbed to the Dark Side.

[Biohazarddfl]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

He’s not there yet, but he’s well on his way. Harper’s most similar player statistically at this age is Barry Bonds. Essentially, we’ll get to see what Bonds might have been had he not succumbed to the Dark Side.

Great point. Good comp

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[Thor34]

I'd love to hear the HOF for/against arguments for Gerrit Cole at this stage of his career? Seems on track to me.

[Jeter1020]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

He’s not there yet, but he’s well on his way. Harper’s most similar player statistically at this age is Barry Bonds. Essentially, we’ll get to see what Bonds might have been had he not succumbed to the Dark Side.

Luckly Darth Vader didn’t get to Harper. I’m pulling for him to get in


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