The 2024 MLB Draft Discussion Thread

[marterburn]

Originally Posted by awz50

How is this draft dismal?? Where are you seeing this?

It's not a good year for college pitching (it's Smith, Burns...then Yesavage...then everyone else) or prep talent in general, as the scouting currently stands. Also, most of the top college hutters have a major flaw or two in their game (e.g. Bazzana's 2B-only, Caglionone is 1B-maybe corner OF only, Wetherholt's health, etc). It's makes it a down year overall.

Edit: the top few preps are quite nice, but Rainer has lots of risk, Griffin likely doesn't have a huge ceiling hobby -wise. Then what, Gillen, who has huge medical red flags, would be next?

[awz50]

Originally Posted by marterburn

It's not a good year for college pitching (it's Smith, Burns...then Yesavage...then everyone else) or prep talent in general, as the scouting currently stands. Also, most of the top college hutters have a major flaw or two in their game (e.g. Bazzana's 2B-only, Caglionone is 1B-maybe corner OF only, Wetherholt's health, etc). It's makes it a down year overall.

Edit: the top few preps are quite nice, but Rainer has lots of risk, Griffin likely doesn't have a huge ceiling hobby -wise. Then what would Gillen, who has huge medical red flags, be next?

Ok that makes more sense, this draft was one of the better ones we have seen in the past couple of years. But I guess you could argue that the hitting potential of this draft looks insane

[Hail2TheVictors]

Originally Posted by asujbl

As others mentioned it’s a pool of money. So they slot it based on prior years

The pool went up like 9% this year so whoever goes #1 (depending on how far they could fall) might get and/or ask for more than Skenes got

Or the Indians could take a guy (JJ is the consensus) that might go 4-6 and have him take a steep discount as opposed to wanting the raise

I hate it. I think it’s stupid

I’m fine with a slotted amount of money like the NFL or NBA has but whatever. There are obviously a billion more rounds

JJ is right there with anyone else (Condon, Bazzana, etc) in terms of prospect status in this draft. Condon and Bazzana had big seasons, while JJ missed a bunch of time due to injury - but to insinuate that taking JJ #1 (and spending some more later in the draft) is some big mistake is just not accurate.

Perhaps you just react emotionally (in a bad way) when hearing the name JJ. We obviously understand.

[Hail2TheVictors]

Originally Posted by marterburn

It's not a good year for college pitching (it's Smith, Burns...then Yesavage...then everyone else) or prep talent in general, as the scouting currently stands. Also, most of the top college hutters have a major flaw or two in their game (e.g. Bazzana's 2B-only, Caglionone is 1B-maybe corner OF only, Wetherholt's health, etc). It's makes it a down year overall.

Edit: the top few preps are quite nice, but Rainer has lots of risk, Griffin likely doesn't have a huge ceiling hobby -wise. Then what, Gillen, who has huge medical red flags, would be next?

Griffin definitely has a pretty considerable ceiling hobby wise - only talking ceiling here. He's got power, likely sticks at CF, etc. It's absolutely a high ceiling in terms of the hobby.

Big questions about the hit tool - so whether he gets close to his ceiling is a big question. But the potential is definitely there.

[Hail2TheVictors]

Originally Posted by marl1220

They have to figure out a way to arrange the draft so it doesn't reward teams for tanking. That goes for all sports.

They literally did this ahead of this draft. They went to a lottery type system, and Cleveland got the top pick - yet wasn't close to the worst team.

[Hail2TheVictors]

Originally Posted by lamiwe21

If you can get your first-round pick correct, you usually win.

If you blow it with that first round pick, its usually because you went cheap with that first pick.

Its way better to be cheap with the 2nd round pick or 3rd round pick because there is so much variance with their value. Not much difference between the price it takes to sign a player at 38 vs 54.

I dont know why teams fight this.

This is just not accurate.

1st rounders not working out is because baseball, as a pro, is extremely difficult - not because teams "went cheap".

[asujbl]

Originally Posted by Hail2TheVictors

JJ is right there with anyone else (Condon, Bazzana, etc) in terms of prospect status in this draft. Condon and Bazzana had big seasons, while JJ missed a bunch of time due to injury - but to insinuate that taking JJ #1 (and spending some more later in the draft) is some big mistake is just not accurate.

Perhaps you just react emotionally (in a bad way) when hearing the name JJ. We obviously understand.

Completely disagree

Taking him at #1 is a huge mistake for our first ever number one pick

It would be embarrassing for Cleveland to do… but that’s what the Dolans are known for

[speedyjg13]

Originally Posted by marterburn

It's not a good year for college pitching (it's Smith, Burns...then Yesavage...then everyone else) or prep talent in general, as the scouting currently stands. Also, most of the top college hutters have a major flaw or two in their game (e.g. Bazzana's 2B-only, Caglionone is 1B-maybe corner OF only, Wetherholt's health, etc). It's makes it a down year overall.

Edit: the top few preps are quite nice, but Rainer has lots of risk, Griffin likely doesn't have a huge ceiling hobby -wise. Then what, Gillen, who has huge medical red flags, would be next?

I hope the Angels get one of these 3 guys

[Boredlawyer]

The top picks could both be college second basemen. The last two 2B drafted in the top 5 were Nick Madrigal and Rickie Weeks.

Condon is a great hitter, but there's no consensus top 5 high school talent like Druw Jones. That talent historically moves the needle for cards. There's a good chance Bazzana and Wetherholt are more, good at everything, elite at nothing types. Even if that's selling their hit tool short, the hobby doesn't get too excited about Jedd Gyorko/Brian Doziers, with maxed out bodies and fairly unprojectible tools. They could certainly be much more than that.

But Rainer, Griffin, Gillen are all very legit and exciting high school bats who could be Top 10 MLB prospects in two years. Griffin is a true five tool talent. Cags is a crazy archetype and Condon has prodigious power.

I don't think it's as shallow of a class as pundits claim, but Burns and Hagen Smith aren't on the same level as. Skenes, and there's no ultra projectable high school bat in the Upton mold that's locked in at 1-1.

The industry is also tepid when it comes to righty bats that might not have a position after Torkekson and Vaughn.

Next year's high school and college bats will be really good, though.

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by marterburn

It's not a good year for college pitching (it's Smith, Burns...then Yesavage...then everyone else)

Obv its those 2 gap...Trey...gap and the rest but lots of guys I wouldn't sleep on. For me having 2 guys that good makes up for lack of a deeper class as I wouldn't be surprised to see Burns be a top 5-10 SP in less then a year and Smith to be a top 25 SP in same time frame.


I can't recall a draft in a long time with 2 pitchers that I think could step in tomorrow and both be top 25 MLB arms. Obv skenes last year, the cole/bauer draft was interesting and obvious Burns/Cole comps but Burns stuff currently is comparable to 2023 Cy Young Cole and not UCLA cole. Greene/Gore would be most exciiting 1-2 comp I could think but were both high school arms



The kid from Miss State is interesting if not for the novelty of throwing 98/95 from each side and could see some collectibility there.

My biggest concern is two guys I love could easily end up in the pen long term. Becht is a stud with Skenes level stuff and just recenrlty quit football. But I think Ben Joyce maybee more likely then Skenes for comps.

Johnson one of my favorite arms in the draft (also a big DBU fan so there's that) but could potentially end up in pen as well and obvious injury risk there

[Hail2TheVictors]

Originally Posted by asujbl

Completely disagree

Taking him at #1 is a huge mistake for our first ever number one pick

It would be embarrassing for Cleveland to do… but that’s what the Dolans are known for

Me thinks you don't understand the actual profiles of the guys in the #1 conversation.

[Hail2TheVictors]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

Obv its those 2 gap...Trey...gap and the rest but lots of guys I wouldn't sleep on. For me having 2 guys that good makes up for lack of a deeper class as I wouldn't be surprised to see Burns be a top 5-10 SP in less then a year and Smith to be a top 25 SP in same time frame.


I can't recall a draft in a long time with 2 pitchers that I think could step in tomorrow and both be top 25 MLB arms. Obv skenes last year, the cole/bauer draft was interesting and obvious Burns/Cole comps but Burns stuff currently is comparable to 2023 Cy Young Cole and not UCLA cole. Greene/Gore would be most exciiting 1-2 comp I could think but were both high school arms



The kid from Miss State is interesting if not for the novelty of throwing 98/95 from each side and could see some collectibility there.

My biggest concern is two guys I love could easily end up in the pen long term. Becht is a stud with Skenes level stuff and just recenrlty quit football. But I think Ben Joyce maybee more likely then Skenes for comps.

Johnson one of my favorite arms in the draft (also a big DBU fan so there's that) but could potentially end up in pen as well and obvious injury risk there

Everything I've read is that Cjintje ends up sticking as a righty only - if he continues to switch pitch, there could be some major buzz/hype at some point, but sounds like that won't happen. I pulled 5-6 of his Leaf Perfect game autos, including a couple 1/1's, and sold them for absolutely stupid money when all the buzz/hype was there during his 1st or 2nd season. Fun times - would love to see that again with him.

Brecht and Skenes in the same sentence (at this point in time) is wild. Brecht's control and command have a LOOOOOOOOONG way to go to be in the Skenes conversation.

[lamiwe21]

William Schmidt has pulled his name out of the MLB draft.

LSU will get him on campus.

[johnlocke36]

obv Brecht not even close, but if you are 6'4 235 and can hit 104 you can at least dream of the upside

[Jaypers]

Originally Posted by awz50

How is this draft dismal?? Where are you seeing this?

Every single reliable prospect source I've read.

[asujbl]

Originally Posted by Hail2TheVictors

Me thinks you don't understand the actual profiles of the guys in the #1 conversation.

I absolutely do

Thanks for playing though

[Jaypers]

Less than an hour to go. Coverage has begun.

You can catch it on MLBN and be subjected to Harold Reynolds pretending to know what he's talking about or on ESPN.

[speedyjg13]

It has begun, who does Cleveland take?

[Jaypers]

Here we go.

[PejaD]

Guessing it will be Bazzana, Condon and Burns to start. If Cleveland tries to go deep underslot at #1, I think they will regret it.

[Hollywood42]

Bummer CLE didn't try to get cute and pass on Bazzana and Condon

[speedyjg13]

Guardians get Travis Bazzana!

[awz50]

Great pick with burns

[Hollywood42]

Gotta think the Rockies must be stoked to get Condon. Rumors were they were going after one of the college arms, but I think they would be best off just trying to put together some crazy offenses

[Jaypers]

Hopefully he'll have more success for the Rox - both at the plate and at 3B - than KB.