The Price Index Carnage Is Real

[JRX]

Originally Posted by Cracktoast

Stay healthy which he has not proven yet he can go more than a full season without missing significant time. That also plays a huge role when people are deciding where to invest their money and is a big reason nobody seems to be able to catch on for more than a few months at a time.

He's also playing at the same time as a guy that hit 62HR. Hitting 30HR 100 RBI just isn't going to move the needle unless you're stealing a ton of bases.

[ThoseBackPages]

wrong thread!

[PuddleMonkey]

I put a $5 marker bid on something as a reminder to add it to my snipe list. My snipe didn't fire off at auctions end, it didn't need to, I was the only player in the game with the starting bid. Now I just gotta hope seller actually ships. Bleed market, bleed.

[hermanotarjeta]

Too much supply, too little demand.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Too much supply, too little demand.

Yet unfortunately, due to the fact that the MLBPA gave Fanatics a monopoly, wax prices are still artificially high.....

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Yet unfortunately, due to the fact that the MLBPA gave Fanatics a monopoly, wax prices are still artificially high.....

The biggest wax price/yield ratio in history.

Both the breaker culture and fanatics are equally responsible. Breakers enabled fanatics to push the demand limit, and so far the bets from the Johns haven’t pulled back yet entirely, but we are seeing some cracks in the system.

There will be plentiful sealed cases for decades to come.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

rwperu34...the price carnage is real! Luckily I am a collector/long term holder of the players I collect. Now or in the off season I am thinking about adding players that I don't currently collect as prices on certain players seem more attractive than they did in the past either due to poor performance, injuries, expectation etc.

Does your tracker mainly use BCA autos to follow the market? Not looking for your secret sauce or anything (I don't sell/flip cards for income) its just I don't buy those cards in general. Mainly stick to low to medium end bowman 1st or RC cards, SP, numbered cards and skip, BCA, RC Autos, and high priced RC SSP's and low numbered cards.

Wanted to get your thoughts on Trout, Judge, Betts, and Harper as long term buys?

It all comes down to the market.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

It all comes down to the market.

So you are basically saying that if the market continues to go down, then nothing is a buy. And if you think the market will ever get better one day, then certain players that perform at or above expectations are a long term buy/hold.

But with no crystal ball...nothing is certain...but in all likeliness the market is going to continue to go down.

[ThoseBackPages]

nothing is a buy

collect everything

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

So you are basically saying that if the market continues to go down, then nothing is a buy. And if you think the market will ever get better one day, then certain players that perform at or above expectations are a long term buy/hold.

But with no crystal ball...nothing is certain...but in all likeliness the market is going to continue to go down.

Yes, prices will continue to drop.

The pandemic letdown is a real thing.

There is as little fomo in the hobby as I have ever seen.

Don’t buy any more than you can afford to lose.

[Galileo77]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

So you are basically saying that if the market continues to go down, then nothing is a buy. And if you think the market will ever get better one day, then certain players that perform at or above expectations are a long term buy/hold.

But with no crystal ball...nothing is certain...but in all likeliness the market is going to continue to go down.

I think there is a difference in approach between people who do this for a living and the majority like myself who love to collect for my PC but still enjoy selling cards to a much lesser degree. when a player has risen in value to a very high degree and i can make a large profitt i have often sold especially if i feel the price is artificially inflated. The persons who do this for a living i believe spend a great deal more of time researching players, looking at stats, looking at the player in spring training in person, to a degree that i can never do nor do i wish to.I do not have the ability nor experience to assess talent the way many others might. most of us will buy for our PC players who are doing well or have done well or have a potential we feel of doing well . These are players who we believe are or may have the potential to be an All-Star and even some day HOFs. Not many of us buy players we percieve as having a mediocre future. For the Person who does this for a living they need to find a way to make money in a down market and their approach i have to believe is quite different than mine, not in concept, but in the detail of accomplishing this in a relatively shorter collecting time

[Qubits]

Isn't the smartest way to sell cards "for a living" to just buy things far enough below comps that you can simply flip it immediately for a profit?

The only cards I've bought specifically to profit off of this is precisely what I did. If I hold a card for more than a month that I only bought to sell I start to get nervous unless its vintage/retired stuff.

I'm sure there are some folks that make a nice profit doing statline scouting and boomer eye testing players and watching the market like a hawk or whatever but this really seems like the difficult way to go about it. Only worthwhile if those activities are fun for you. Also, far more risky unless you've really got a crystal ball and can see the future.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by Qubits

Isn't the smartest way to sell cards "for a living" to just buy things far enough below comps that you can simply flip it immediately for a profit?

The problem with trying to flip cards for a profit is transaction costs, especially on online platforms like EBay.

In many states you have to pay sales tax when you buy (for me in WA, it's 10.25%, since we have no income tax).

Then when you re-sell it, you've got to give EBay 12-15%.

So if I were to buy a $100 card to flip, I would have to sell it for roughly $130 just to break even.

I'd guess that most people who claim to make money flipping conveniently omit transaction costs from their profit/loss calculations.....

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Qubits

Isn't the smartest way to sell cards "for a living" to just buy things far enough below comps that you can simply flip it immediately for a profit?

As I think you’re alluding to, it depends on what “for a living” means to you. Some people who make a living in sports cards still live at home with mommy and daddy, who pay all living expenses for them. My most basic living expenses excluding my mortgage run me $4700 a month. That’s just groceries, utilities, car insurance, child care, gas, and household supplies. How many people make $4700 a month take home from flipping cards?

[StateEx]

Originally Posted by mfw13

The problem with trying to flip cards for a profit is transaction costs, especially on online platforms like EBay.

In many states you have to pay sales tax when you buy (for me in WA, it's 10.25%, since we have no income tax).

Then when you re-sell it, you've got to give EBay 12-15%.

So if I were to buy a $100 card to flip, I would have to sell it for roughly $130 just to break even.

I'd guess that most people who claim to make money flipping conveniently omit transaction costs from their profit/loss calculations.....

You also have to pay income tax if you're a seller. It's all-but impossible to break even once you account for fees and taxes unless the market is shooting up, which it obviously isn't.

I think the impact of increased attention to existing tax rules (e.g., via ebay/paypal) is going to have a huge impact on the hobby -- further, I don't think people have priced this in yet.

[Qubits]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

As I think you’re alluding to, it depends on what “for a living” means to you. Some people who make a living in sports cards still live at home with mommy and daddy, who pay all living expenses for them. My most basic living expenses excluding my mortgage runs me $4700 a month. That’s just groceries, utilities, car insurance, child care, gas, and household supplies. How many people make $4700 a month take home from flipping cards?

Yeah, that's why "for a living" was in quotes.

[dream34]

There are a few things that have been doing relatively well.

The key is always learning and looking long term and finding things that are unique and will fit the supply/demand model that collectibles/cards have always been built upon.

Aiming to make money on prospects/young stars has always been tough because the losses are so huge when they underperform at every check point.

Look for things that make long term sense and enjoy the wait.

[tconte]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

There is as little fomo in the hobby as I have ever seen.

This is spot on. People don't care like they used too. Way to much product.
Add in the card cleaning of ultra modern cards to make better grades or
the fake patches and it's a mess. Why get caught with so much cash in it.

Collect and don't invest. And collect what you can afford to lose.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by dream34

There are a few things that have been doing relatively well.

The key is always learning and looking long term and finding things that are unique and will fit the supply/demand model that collectibles/cards have always been built upon.

Aiming to make money on prospects/young stars has always been tough because the losses are so huge when they underperform at every check point.

Look for things that make long term sense and enjoy the wait.

Prospecting was pretty easy 15-20 years ago when draft boxes were $50 and the top chrome autos were $60-$80.

You can’t win when you have to pay $1000 for the best guys and $1000 for super jumbos.

[seanrs1]

My strategy...buy as much Ohtani as possible and hope he becomes a legend in the future that everyone wants to collect (massive demand). Buy other players I like and pray for good fortune. Enjoy the journey. Only spend fun money!

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

My strategy...buy as much Ohtani as possible and hope he becomes a legend in the future that everyone wants to collect (massive demand).

Good luck!

The problem with Ohtani is that his cards are already priced as if he's a legend, and everyone is already collecting him. His auto prices are crazy.....especially given that he will probably be signing for another 40-50 years.....

[solt0131]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Yes, prices will continue to drop.

The pandemic letdown is a real thing.

There is as little fomo in the hobby as I have ever seen.

Don’t buy any more than you can afford to lose.

Kind of makes you wonder if anybody is going to show up to The National this year and spend money. Sounds like it could be the worst National in a long, long time.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Good luck!

The problem with Ohtani is that his cards are already priced as if he's a legend, and everyone is already collecting him. His auto prices are crazy.....especially given that he will probably be signing for another 40-50 years.....

A lot of low to mid end 2018 Ohtani RC cards are off their peak by like 50%. There are plenty of good deals to be had right now. His high end RC autos are crazy high...I don't buy or own any of those. My main buying strategy are parallels, SP's, SSP's, and numbered RC cards...cards that are $500 or less.

I just think one day his demand is going to be much, much, much higher than today.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by solt0131

Kind of makes you wonder if anybody is going to show up to The National this year and spend money. Sounds like it could be the worst National in a long, long time.

I predict there will be super high pandemic asking prices and a lot of browsers who aren’t buying much.

The only deals will be bigger dealers buying out smaller dealers.

[BAHoopla]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Yes, prices will continue to drop.

There is as little fomo in the hobby as I have ever seen.

You can see this right on the first page of BO…there are maybe 3 or 4 player threads on page 1 on a given day and the rest is other fluff.

Back in 3 years ago it was the opposite and such player threads actually had posts of new cards purchased…not today