HOF Pace Tracker

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by tyrith

Only the absolute, very best players can really lock HOF by that 28-29 range - Mookie, Trout, and probably Soto will. Everyone else has to have some sort of career into their early 30s - and generally more like mid 30s, as we've seen with guys like Evan Longoria, Andrew McCutchen, and Giancarlo Stanton that seemed like absolute locks at age 28 and who have little chance of getting in on the BBWAA ballot now.

Maybe people that follow this more closely can tell me....

Why would Stanton have little chance of making it into the Hall?

With 16 HRs this year he's at 418 for his career. The Batting average is low, but he still has a ton of power that should keep him in the league getting at bats for a few years. Let's say he even slows down his pace and hits another 16 this year, putting him at 434 at year end. He's got 3 more years on his current deal.

As I look at the all time HR list, there's only one guy north of 464 HRs not in the Hall who isnt affiliated with cheating: Carlos Delgado. WAR is the measure they are identical in, but other than that Stanton has a few things going for him over Delgado, including an MVP and MVP runner up.

So my question is: if Stanton gets to 475 does he get left out, and if he gets to 500 is there any way he doesn't get in (other than a cheating scandal)?

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Maybe people that follow this more closely can tell me....

Why would Stanton have little chance of making it into the Hall?

With 16 HRs this year he's at 418 for his career. The Batting average is low, but he still has a ton of power that should keep him in the league getting at bats for a few years. Let's say he even slows down his pace and hits another 16 this year, putting him at 434 at year end. He's got 3 more years on his current deal.

As I look at the all time HR list, there's only one guy north of 464 HRs not in the Hall who isnt affiliated with cheating: Carlos Delgado. WAR is the measure they are identical in, but other than that Stanton has a few things going for him over Delgado, including an MVP and MVP runner up.

So my question is: if Stanton gets to 475 does he get left out, and if he gets to 500 is there any way he doesn't get in (other than a cheating scandal)?

He should talk to Fred McGriff....

But in all seriousness, Stanton is at 44.3 bWAR at age 34 and has earned a cumulative 4.3 bWAR his past 5+ seasons, i.e. an avereage of less than 1 WAR per season.

I think as a one-dimensional power hitter, he's got to at least get over 50 WAR to have a chance at the HOF irrespective of his final HR total.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by mfw13

He should talk to Fred McGriff....

But in all seriousness, Stanton is at 44.3 bWAR at age 34 and has earned a cumulative 4.3 bWAR his past 5+ seasons, i.e. an avereage of less than 1 WAR per season.

I think as a one-dimensional power hitter, he's got to at least get over 50 WAR to have a chance at the HOF irrespective of his final HR total.

Sad that it all comes down to one metric these days...

Probably part of the reason why I barely pay attention to baseball anymore.

Also, McGriff is in the HOF, is he not?

[Silent George]

Originally Posted by NYBBFAN

Edit it and wrap it in code tags, like this, but remove the hyphen.

[-CODE]
Monospaced text
[-/CODE]

thanks!

[Silent George]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Sad that it all comes down to one metric these days...

Probably part of the reason why I barely pay attention to baseball anymore.

Also, McGriff is in the HOF, is he not?

I believe the topic you were replying to was about 1st ballot guys, of which Stanton is at a minimum definitely not a lock.

But HOF? super hard to imagine the year 2100 coming around and he's not in it.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Sad that it all comes down to one metric these days...

Probably part of the reason why I barely pay attention to baseball anymore.

Also, McGriff is in the HOF, is he not?

WAR is just a shortcut, but it's easy enough to see what goes into WAR and why his has been so low the last few years. There are two primary components -

1) His OBP has been in the toilet for the last three years. His walk rate is down some, but mostly his BABIP has been complete garbage for three years now. That's long enough that it doesn't really seem to be an accident.

2) Pretty much every defensive system hates his outfield defense, and he's been an at least half time DH for five years now, to the point where he hasn't played the field at all during 2024.

Stanton's big picture problem is that he missed so many games during his 20s that, even though he started at age 20, he didn't accumulated enough to get over the hump before he got into his early 30s and has regressed pretty badly. He has 1595 career games played, which is the same number of games played Manny Machado has if you delete Machado's age 19 season - and Machado is three years younger. So Stanton has career accumulation more in line with someone that came into the league at age 22 or 23, and those guys almost always need to be reasonably decent until at least age 34 or 35 to get their career totals to Cooperstown range.

In 2024 we know more about baseball than to reduce baseball to a single different number - his HR total. We understand that defense and position matter immensely and that OBP is the most important offensive stat. Stanton has largely failed at all of that since he turned 32. His peak years weren't the same level of highs as someone like Aaron Judge has achieved because his career high in OBP, in a mostly full season, was .395, and he's largely sat in the mid 300s.

If he doesn't have a couple of more seriously good seasons in him, he just hasn't accumulated enough, even if he hangs around as a replacement level player long enough to get over 500 HRs. I fully expect the continuing committee to put him in the Hall eventually, but they do all sorts of crazy stuff, so whatever.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Sad that it all comes down to one metric these days...

Probably part of the reason why I barely pay attention to baseball anymore.

Also, McGriff is in the HOF, is he not?

He is....but he got put in by the Veteran's Committee after not coming close to getting voted in despite finishing with 493 HR.

Point being that a high HR total is not necessarily enough in and of itself to get you voted in by the writers anymore.

And Stanton doesn't have much going for him aside from his HR.....he's a one-dimensional player.

[Silent George]

Originally Posted by mfw13

He is....but he got put in by the Veteran's Committee after not coming close to getting voted in despite finishing with 493 HR.

Point being that a high HR total is not necessarily enough in and of itself to get you voted in by the writers anymore.

And Stanton doesn't have much going for him aside from his HR.....he's a one-dimensional player.

I think the context of this stuff is changing rapidly.

McGriff was seen as a failure for not hitting 500 at a time when everybody was doing it.

Meanwhile when Stanton hits the ballot, he's going to be the highest number seen on there in a long time.

500 HR, no PED controversies, and a big section of his career as a Yankee (with possible playoff success this year?) I think his path to the writer's vote is easier than others. But it's definitely not a WAR path. Nope.

[Bcr]

McGriff got hosed by the strike season as well or he would've been past 500 easy. I'm not sure 500 is a sure HoF vote anymore though with advanced metrics being what they are today.

Judge and Stanton just need to stay healthy. They are both getting older and have a history of injury though. They will be as borderline as it gets when all is said and done

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by mfw13

He is....but he got put in by the Veteran's Committee after not coming close to getting voted in despite finishing with 493 HR.

Point being that a high HR total is not necessarily enough in and of itself to get you voted in by the writers anymore.

And Stanton doesn't have much going for him aside from his HR.....he's a one-dimensional player.

Originally Posted by Silent George

I think the context of this stuff is changing rapidly.

McGriff was seen as a failure for not hitting 500 at a time when everybody was doing it.

Meanwhile when Stanton hits the ballot, he's going to be the highest number seen on there in a long time.

500 HR, no PED controversies, and a big section of his career as a Yankee (with possible playoff success this year?) I think his path to the writer's vote is easier than others. But it's definitely not a WAR path. Nope.

Also take into consideration that Stanton has:
-A MVP
-A MVP runner up
-A limited but pretty solid career postseason performance
-His age 30 season mostly deleted by COVID (which I think should be taken into consideration for anybody playing this era).

I just can't see him getting left off the ballot if he gets to 500, which is a number that I'm not certain anybody else playing right now will get to.

[ironfireman]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Also take into consideration that Stanton has:
-A MVP
-A MVP runner up
-A limited but pretty solid career postseason performance
-His age 30 season mostly deleted by COVID (which I think should be taken into consideration for anybody playing this era).

I just can't see him getting left off the ballot if he gets to 500, which is a number that I'm not certain anybody else playing right now will get to.

The HOF is a lot about your peers, active players and who is on the ballot. With McGriff there were 10 guy on the ballot his 1st year that would eventually get in. 10 guys who got more votes with only McGwire still not in the HOF.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/a...hof_2010.shtml

Also, I remember Frank Thomas was retired and not yet eligible but had 512 HRs and was way better than Mcgriff, Thome had 550+HR and was active but winding down - ARod had 550+ was still playing... Bonds had retired a couple years earlier with 762 HRs, Sosa & Mcgwire had retired with both 600+ HRs SO McGriff kinda got lost in the crowd, then next year Bagwell, Walker, Palmerio, Gonzalez were 1st time ballot guys... Biggio Piazza Clemens Bonds would soon follow. Then all the Atlanta pitchers... the ballot was crowded! and 493 HRs wasn't noteworthy.
So it depends on who is on the ballot. And who the players peers are.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Also take into consideration that Stanton has:
-A MVP
-A MVP runner up
-A limited but pretty solid career postseason performance
-His age 30 season mostly deleted by COVID (which I think should be taken into consideration for anybody playing this era).

I just can't see him getting left off the ballot if he gets to 500, which is a number that I'm not certain anybody else playing right now will get to.

Yup, he's got all that and who knows what else. He's got to stay healthy and get to the magic number of 500 to solidify himself as a shoe-in. He's no Nelson Cruz. That would've been an interesting argument had he not popped and got to 500.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by mfw13

The pool of active, position player, future 1st ballot HOFers over age 30 is shockingly shallow right now.

You've got Trout, and probably Betts and Freeman, and that may be it.

Machado seems likely due his strong counting numbers, but is starting to fall off the cliff already offensively at age 31.

Goldschmidt has a career 141 OPS+, but with an 88 OPS+ so far and no contract after this season, he may be done. If Brandon Belt couldn't get a deal this year as a 1B/DH coming off a 135 OPS+ season, will Goldschmidt be able to get a deal next year coming off a <100 OPS+ season?

Arenado probably gets in as a Brooks Robinson/Scott Rolen type due to his 10 Gold Gloves, but he's really starting to fall off offensively.

Altuve is the best 2B of his generation, but has a the Astros' scandal hanging over his head.

Jose Ramirez is a small-market stud, who is sneaking under everyone's radar.

And Judge gets in if he stays healthy, which is a big if. Because despite all his single-season heroics, he's still only at 282 HR at age 32.

But after those guys, you have a pretty big dry spell until you get to the Soto/Acuna generations around age 25/26.

I've long noted the position player drought of the 00s. Between Pujols (2001) and Trout (2011), you basically have Miggy and a couple of catchers. Freddie Freeman (2010) has joined the party and Joey Votto (2007) will make it, but that's 11 years worth of positional players right there. I expect a big dropoff in average names per ballot during those years.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Also take into consideration that Stanton has:
-A MVP
-A MVP runner up
-A limited but pretty solid career postseason performance
-His age 30 season mostly deleted by COVID (which I think should be taken into consideration for anybody playing this era).

I just can't see him getting left off the ballot if he gets to 500, which is a number that I'm not certain anybody else playing right now will get to.

Mike Trout says hello.

I wouldn't be totally surprised if 3-5 guys playing right now make it. Harper, Machado, Soto, and Devers are in really good shape. Then you've got the youts that haven't really established themselves yet and the mid range guys that could have mid or late career breakouts...not even to mention guys still in the minors that have a very wide range of outcomes.

[Archangel1775]

I believe Machado, Harper, Ohtani, Alonso , Bellinger and Olson if last year wasn't a fluke could get to 500.

[Zauron]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Also take into consideration that Stanton has:
-A MVP
-A MVP runner up
-A limited but pretty solid career postseason performance
-His age 30 season mostly deleted by COVID (which I think should be taken into consideration for anybody playing this era).

I just can't see him getting left off the ballot if he gets to 500, which is a number that I'm not certain anybody else playing right now will get to.

The Covid year, every player in a generation ends up having some sort of fluke circumstances involving their stats it seems

'90s we had the strike shortened seasons, the '80's we had another short strike, etc.

That said, right now on pace I would say Harper and Trout have good chances of getting to 500. If Machado regains some form, he may slowly get there. I'm not holding my breath on that one.

The younger guys who it is way too early to tell, like Soto, Yordan, Tatis, Vlad Jr....although some of those guys I don't see getting that high, but since they started so young maybe.

I would put Acuna in there, but the knee injury worries me about him holding up power wise.

[tyrith]

Soto could get to 500 HR. It's going to be a career duration thing, since it seems like something around 40 HR is going to be his peak. He'll need to be putting up 30 HR seasons into his mid 30s to have a good chance to make it. He's been really durable in his career, it's just a really long time for a hitter to sustain that level. But he's going to get a contract that probably goes to age 37 or something nutters, so he'll at least get ABs even if he regresses.

FWIW, Harper is in in the same boat except he's been a lot less durable, and Machado is in the same boat except he's had a couple of major regression years - first in contact and now in everything. Machado is also signed until he's 39, so he's going to get years to scratch away at it even if he's a 1-2 WAR player, but having a 17 HR season right now would be a pretty major derail.

After those guys, excluding Trout and Stanton, it's really hard to pick another candidate. Acuna has had so many major injuries now and is losing prime years. Pete Alonso came into the league at 24 and just doesn't seem like he's gonna be a good player at age 37 to get past that. Devers is a slightly less good version of Machado, which I suppose gives him a shot, but he'd still need to hit 30 HR a year until he's 36 or 37 and then tail from there if he's never going to have a season north of 40.

Honestly, at this point, I might rather take Gunnar Henderson than any of the older candidates. If he hits 45 HR at age 23, that's a bigger power peak than we've seen from a young player in this new deadball era. It's just a lot easier to get the math to work if a player has close to 200 HR by age 26 - that's the whole Soto argument.

[seanrs1]

Ohtani has 190 career HR. He averages 40 HR/162 games. He is signed for 10 more years. If he has an aging curve similar to Ichiro, I think he makes it to 500 HR.

[rms13]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Ohtani has 190 career HR. He averages 40 HR/162 games. He is signed for 10 more years. If he has an aging curve similar to Ichiro, I think he makes it to 500 HR.

Kyle Schwarber about a year older then Ohtani. He has 262 HR and averages 40 HR/162 games. He could get to 500 HR especially with the pace he's been on the past 3 seasons. He has one World Series title and could get another this year. He could be the first 500 HR guy with no PED ties to not make the HOF

[Fulmer4MVP]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Mike Trout says hello.

I wouldn't be totally surprised if 3-5 guys playing right now make it. Harper, Machado, Soto, and Devers are in really good shape. Then you've got the youts that haven't really established themselves yet and the mid range guys that could have mid or late career breakouts...not even to mention guys still in the minors that have a very wide range of outcomes.

I really don't think Trout makes it to 500.

[atk825]

Originally Posted by Fulmer4MVP

I really don't think Trout makes it to 500.

I'd venture a guess that he's still pretty favored to get there.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by rms13

Kyle Schwarber about a year older then Ohtani. He has 262 HR and averages 40 HR/162 games. He could get to 500 HR especially with the pace he's been on the past 3 seasons. He has one World Series title and could get another this year. He could be the first 500 HR guy with no PED ties to not make the HOF

I'd be shocked if Schwarber can maintain enough contact to get enough ABs to hit 40 HR/yr in his mid to late 30s.

[rms13]

Originally Posted by tyrith

I'd be shocked if Schwarber can maintain enough contact to get enough ABs to hit 40 HR/yr in his mid to late 30s.

Yes, he'd probably have to keep up the 46-47 HR pace he's had the last two seasons for a couple of more years to pad his later decline. Most likely is he ends with numbers closer to Adam Dunn.

[rms13]

Originally Posted by atk825

I'd venture a guess that he's still pretty favored to get there.

It's just a matter of health. 4 more 30 hr seasons will get him to 500. News just came out today that 6 weeks after surger he has no timeline for recovery. So there is definilty a possibilty he will miss the start of next season and he doesn't have a shot at another full season until age 34. And then you wonder if he'll be able to return in his mid 30s after all the injuries he's had and still perform at the same level he was before.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by tyrith

I'd be shocked if Schwarber can maintain enough contact to get enough ABs to hit 40 HR/yr in his mid to late 30s.

In Schwarber's case, his high walk rate somewhat offsets his low batting average (he's got a very respectable .342 career OBP).

Given that he needs roughly eight more 30-HR seasons, it's really going to come down to health.

If he gets to 500 HR, it'll be really interesting how voters treat his low BA, since he'll probably end up with a career .200-.220 BA (he's at .229 now, before beginning his decline years).

Harmon Killebrew has the lowest BA of any modern ERA HOFer (I think) at .256, and he had a .376 OBP.

Also worth noting is that Schwarber is only at 13.6 bWAR despite all his HR....his 93 HR over the past two seasons have been worth less than 3 WAR total. So he's only going to end up with 20-30 bWAR for his career.