The Price Index Carnage Is Real

[Akphillips86]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

totally agree here. im in the same boat, but lean towards Topps Blacks and Real Topps Chrome Gold Refractors.

im having difficulty finding some at all at any price, nevermind "down" pricing

Truth. I’ve got my trigger finger ready so to speak if a few specific cards come up that I know I can afford, but they just aren’t hitting the market. I almost grabbed a Bryce black the other day, but somebody grabbed it while I was pondering it haha, should have pulled the trigger!

I also really dig the 2018 and 2019 Independence Day parallels but unsure how these will be viewed in the future. I kind of think these years will carry a premium, especially 2018.


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[oddstuff]

Originally Posted by Triple B

PSA 10 1992 Topps Shaquille O'Neal Gold RC

13K for that you must have caught the very peak price for it?

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by Akphillips86

Truth. I’ve got my trigger finger ready so to speak if a few specific cards come up that I know I can afford, but they just aren’t hitting the market. I almost grabbed a Bryce black the other day, but somebody grabbed it while I was pondering it haha, should have pulled the trigger!

I also really dig the 2018 and 2019 Independence Day parallels but unsure how these will be viewed in the future. I kind of think these years will carry a premium, especially 2018.


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2018 will only see more demand. 2019 could go either way. 2020 is bleh. 2021, 2022 and 2023 are downright terrible looking (in fact they look exactly like the $1 walmart set golds). 2024's look amazing and i am hoping they can save the parallel

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by rms13

How much is the entire card market down since the peak.. 60-70%?

My Price Index is off about 70-75% from the April, 2021 peak. That is the BCA of the very top young players. I suspect that by the end of this year it will be below when I started it in November, 2017.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

My Price Index is off about 70-75% from the April, 2021 peak. That is the BCA of the very top young players. I suspect that by the end of this year it will be below when I started it in November, 2017.

Do you think this is mainly economy related or is their a problem with the singles baseball card market? Do you think consumers are tired of paying a lot of money for a product (wax) that has a negative value once opening? Or could sports collectors just not be into baseball anymore?

[LVDan]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Do you think this is mainly economy related or is their a problem with the singles baseball card market? Do you think consumers are tired of paying a lot of money for a product (wax) that has a negative value once opening? Or could sports collectors just not be into baseball anymore?

Yes to all IMO

Without a freakshow young talent tearing up the league at a historic pace this year it has exposed all of the above and more
Acuna, JRod, Carroll and more disappointing investors
Ohtani going one way(albeit with great numbers)
Judge, Soto and Gunnar just aren’t moving the needle enough to make up for the flipside

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Do you think this is mainly economy related or is their a problem with the singles baseball card market? Do you think consumers are tired of paying a lot of money for a product (wax) that has a negative value once opening? Or could sports collectors just not be into baseball anymore?

Spending on discretionary items remains strong, so I don't think it's related to the macroeconomy as much as it is to the fact that manufacturers are producing/releasing far more products than collectors are interested in. You've got baseball, football, basketball, hockey, and soccer, each with 30+ products being released a year, as well as other sports and non-sports which are also fairly big as well. Breakers/gamblers are supporting a lot of products, but they can't support everything, and collectors are generally very discerning in what they want to collect.

Even for the star players, there simply isn't enough demand for all the cards that are being produced...especially all the pointless parallels.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Do you think this is mainly economy related or is their a problem with the singles baseball card market? Do you think consumers are tired of paying a lot of money for a product (wax) that has a negative value once opening? Or could sports collectors just not be into baseball anymore?

If you are talking about the US economy, no, that is not the problem.

I don't think consumers are tired of paying a lot of money for wax. If they were, the price would come down.

I am not even convinced that the sportscard market as a whole is not growing, at least in terms of money flowing in. The only thing I'm sure of is the money flowing out is greater than the money flowing in.

Originally Posted by LVDan

Yes to all IMO

Without a freakshow young talent tearing up the league at a historic pace this year it has exposed all of the above and more
Acuna, JRod, Carroll and more disappointing investors
Ohtani going one way(albeit with great numbers)
Judge, Soto and Gunnar just aren’t moving the needle enough to make up for the flipside

The problems is Gunnar is only up 60% as of last check. Soto is barely up, to the point I'd call him flat. I don't track Judge any more, but I'm familiar enough with his market to know he's up, but not huge. Last year Acuna, with his historic season, peaked at up 60% and finished up 10%.

In 2018-2021 it was not uncommon for guys to be up 2x, 3x, even 4x. And not just low level bums that had huge breakouts. The biggest stars/seasons would explode. In 2022 and 2023 the only player to have a 2x season is Judge in 2022 with his 62 HR. Nobody is up 2x at this point, so it's pretty unlikely we get one this year.

On the flip side, in 2019 only 8 out of 28 players ended up down more than 30%. So far this year we're already at 10 out of 25. Odds are several more will join the ranks. It was very rare for a player to lose more than 50% in one year back then. In 2019 0 of 28 lost that much. Already 3 out of 25 are at that level this year, with more to join them once we get into the post-National lull.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

I don't think consumers are tired of paying a lot of money for wax. If they were, the price would come down.

I think collectors are tired of paying a lot of money for wax.

I think breakers couldn't care less about the price of wax because they can pass the costs on to their customers/gamblers.

That's the problem in a nutshell....

[Chicosbailbonds]

Originally Posted by mfw13

I think collectors are tired of paying a lot of money for wax.

I think breakers couldn't care less about the price of wax because they can pass the costs on to their customers/gamblers.

That's the problem in a nutshell....

Nailed it.

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by mfw13

I think collectors are tired of paying a lot of money for wax.

I think breakers couldn't care less about the price of wax because they can pass the costs on to their customers/gamblers.

That's the problem in a nutshell....

Just replace breakers with flippers and investors and wax with singles...and you have the singles secondary market.

So there is nothing new to see here. The big difference is that the breakers are able to make money the flippers and investors aren’t able to at the moment.

The other difference is that flippers and investors can’t admit they’re of the same ilk because doing so is apparently bad for business…

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

Just replace breakers with flippers and investors and wax with singles...and you have the singles secondary market.

Yes and no....my general impression is that "singles buyers" are much more discerning in what they buy/collect because their buying has a focus....i.e. a player, a team, an insert set or parallel set they're trying to complete, etc.

Whereas investors/flippers are much less discerning and will buy anything they think has profit potential.

[seanrs1]

rwperu34...it seems you are describing a singles market where demand is weak and sellers want to to get out before the market gets worse...which of course it will!

Do you think there is just too much product? Or is demand just not there with the current players? I wonder how MLB ratings are doing? It might be the current MLB product itself. I really think MLB needs to take a page out of the NBA playback and purposely increase offense. Seems like juicing the baseball would be helpful or decreasing the size of the strike zone. More offense would likely make the game more enjoyable for most fans.

[Cracktoast]

Originally Posted by mfw13

I think collectors are tired of paying a lot of money for wax.

I think breakers couldn't care less about the price of wax because they can pass the costs on to their customers/gamblers.

That's the problem in a nutshell....

True but there are obviously enough collectors buying into breaks at the prices breakers are asking or the break prices would come down. If people aren't buying into breaks then breakers might break say only 2 cases of a product instead of 3 or 4 cases which in time should bring sealed wax down. The problem is people are wanting pre-pandemic wax prices and that is never going to happen. The sooner people realize the world changed and adjust their expectations the sooner the card market will recover.

I think the biggest reason you don't see singles prices moving upwards is collector's want pre-pandemic prices and most of the people holding bigger cards got in at a low enough price that they can afford to wait it out. The newest products maybe not but anything say 5 yrs old or older there is no reason to give a discount anytime soon. So we are in a game to see who blinks first.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

I don't think consumers are tired of paying a lot of money for wax. If they were, the price would come down.

Prices of certain products do drop. They are high at release because of group breaking. Gamblers will pay a premium at release to be one of the first to open a new product.

Prices won't come down because Fanatics has a tight control over supply and distribution. That's the main benefit to having an exclusivity -- they effectively control the market.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Do you think this is mainly economy related or is their a problem with the singles baseball card market? Do you think consumers are tired of paying a lot of money for a product (wax) that has a negative value once opening? Or could sports collectors just not be into baseball anymore?

As Hermano would say, it's not fun playing the market when prices only seem to drop.

End consumers consistently lose. There's no logical reason for them to participate in the hobby if they're not collecting. And even if they're collecting, they're having to pay inflated prices for cards due to market manipulation -- shill bidding on eBay etc.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

On the flip side, in 2019 only 8 out of 28 players ended up down more than 30%. So far this year we're already at 10 out of 25. Odds are several more will join the ranks. It was very rare for a player to lose more than 50% in one year back then. In 2019 0 of 28 lost that much. Already 3 out of 25 are at that level this year, with more to join them once we get into the post-National lull.

The volatility in values is due to prices getting jacked up to unsustainable levels through market manipulation.

Prices used to be more sustainable in 2019 because trading cards weren't treated primarily as investments as they are now. There was more of a balance between collecting and investing.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by mfw13

I think breakers couldn't care less about the price of wax because they can pass the costs on to their customers/gamblers.

Breakers getting fat off legal gambling. They know they have a dedicated customer base of gambling addicts.

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

My Price Index is off about 70-75% from the April, 2021 peak. That is the BCA of the very top young players. I suspect that by the end of this year it will be below when I started it in November, 2017.

I don't know how you calculate this but, if I were to guess, let's say it's 2007 and we are creating a BCA price index of 2001-2007 autos. I would imagine as you progress through the years 2008 --> 2009 --> 2010 onto 2015, that specific index would probably be down 75% as well. The likely reason isn't due to a market correction but due to prospect players in general becoming irrelevant over time.

Not discounting at all that the market is down but I still see absolutely nutty prices for top prospect product headliners and it still seems to be approaching all time high levels of gambling.

Still think that the market continues to get smarter and smarter. Really good stuff is still high. Common stuff falls like a rock regardless if it's a good player or speculated player. Current year RC logo buys continue to prove to be money losers when buying in the same year the RC logo comes out, as has been the case for ~4 years (thanks dilution and blah players). Rare and generally obscure still seems to do okay (things like mid tier MJ inserts)

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

rwperu34...it seems you are describing a singles market where demand is weak and sellers want to to get out before the market gets worse...which of course it will!

Do you think there is just too much product? Or is demand just not there with the current players? I wonder how MLB ratings are doing? It might be the current MLB product itself. I really think MLB needs to take a page out of the NBA playback and purposely increase offense. Seems like juicing the baseball would be helpful or decreasing the size of the strike zone. More offense would likely make the game more enjoyable for most fans.

I think there is too much supply for the current level of demand.

As for the problem, to me the biggest issue is the amount of money flowing out of the hobby. Fanatics, PSA, eBay, USPS (or similar), and small business owners like myself and breakers are all taking more money out of the market than a few years ago...for what should be obvious reasons. That money needs to be replaced by new money coming in, and right now it isn't.

We will hit a new equilibrium at some point and prices will level off or even start rising again. After 3 straight years of beatings (or 4, depending on how you handle 2021), it can seem like it will be this way forever. It won't. The big question is, when? That's the question that nobody has the answer to.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Prices of certain products do drop. They are high at release because of group breaking. Gamblers will pay a premium at release to be one of the first to open a new product.

Prices won't come down because Fanatics has a tight control over supply and distribution. That's the main benefit to having an exclusivity -- they effectively control the market.

I agree with your second point, but the first is nonsense. Prices have always been astronomically high at release. The drop is maybe coming a little quicker and a little steeper now, but the overall function of the release cycle is basically the same as it ever was...with the exception of 2020-2021.

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

The volatility in values is due to prices getting jacked up to unsustainable levels through market manipulation.

Prices used to be more sustainable in 2019 because trading cards weren't treated primarily as investments as they are now. There was more of a balance between collecting and investing.

I guess you are the savant that knows what price levels are sustainable and unsustainable?

I actually wish you knew what you portend to know here, because we are below 2019 price levels. That should mean prices start to level off :checks notes: six months ago. Oh well. I guess you don't really know what is sustainable and what isn't.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

I don't know how you calculate this but, if I were to guess, let's say it's 2007 and we are creating a BCA price index of 2001-2007 autos. I would imagine as you progress through the years 2008 --> 2009 --> 2010 onto 2015, that specific index would probably be down 75% as well. The likely reason isn't due to a market correction but due to prospect players in general becoming irrelevant over time.

What happens in a flat market is the money converges on a small handful of players. From that time period, Pujols, Ichiro, and Miggy gain so much they offset all of the losses from all the other hyped players that fizzle.

I would say a Price Index from those years would be down a ton in the early going...mostly because we basically went through a depression for those years. From what I understand, Strasburg came along and reinvigorated things in 2010. Then Harper. The Trout...etc.

Not discounting at all that the market is down but I still see absolutely nutty prices for top prospect product headliners and it still seems to be approaching all time high levels of gambling.

If you're talking new release, then absolutely. These Bowman guys that just released are going to plop 30% for release cycle, plus another ~20% or so for the seasonal cycle, plus however far the market drops before The National. That's before we even get to performance.

For established prospects (as of Nov., 2023 call it 2023 Bowman and earlier), they were right in line with 2019 prices. Today Holliday is still a little out of whack with 2018 prices, but we've got 5 months of him plummeting to go.

Still think that the market continues to get smarter and smarter. Really good stuff is still high. Common stuff falls like a rock regardless if it's a good player or speculated player. Current year RC logo buys continue to prove to be money losers when buying in the same year the RC logo comes out, as has been the case for ~4 years (thanks dilution and blah players). Rare and generally obscure still seems to do okay (things like mid tier MJ inserts)

I am not going to argue the market isn't getting smarter, because it's definitely getting less dumb. I also have a limited scope (recent baseball, with a heavy focus on 1st Bowman). Keeping that in mind, I can tell you that everything is down all the way from the rarest to the most common of cards. From the best to the worst of players.

At some point someone else quoted a price tracker that had a wider scope than mine, and it was down about the same. Throughout the years people have quoted different trackers (possibly that same one), and they are always in the same neighborhood as mine. All markets don't move in synchronicity, but my guess is if you take broad enough strokes, it's not a question if any particular market is down. It's a question of how much is it down.

[Twalk1975]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

I think there is too much supply for the current level of demand.

As for the problem, to me the biggest issue is the amount of money flowing out of the hobby. Fanatics, PSA, eBay, USPS (or similar), and small business owners like myself and breakers are all taking more money out of the market than a few years ago...for what should be obvious reasons. That money needs to be replaced by new money coming in, and right now it isn't.

We will hit a new equilibrium at some point and prices will level off or even start rising again. After 3 straight years of beatings (or 4, depending on how you handle 2021), it can seem like it will be this way forever. It won't. The big question is, when? That's the question that nobody has the answer to.

I'm pretty sure that I saw somewhere that PSA graded something like 1.7 million cards last month, their best month ever. I'm just going to assume the amount of new wax that goes to breakers is increasing. And at least in my area, the number of monthly card shows remains well above what it was five years ago, so dealers are still getting their skim. I'm not sure why everyone keeps ignoring what you're saying about third parties draining money out of the hobby.

[Twalk1975]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

My Price Index is off about 70-75% from the April, 2021 peak. That is the BCA of the very top young players. I suspect that by the end of this year it will be below when I started it in November, 2017.

Not exactly a scientific measure, but my ebay sales (in dollars) are off about 80% from the peak period. They've always remained fairly consistent year to year, and come almost exclusively from selling the stuff I don't keep from wax that I open.

[noaskiecards]

Gambling addiction fueled by team breaks is keeping prices up.
I saw a 12 box hobby case 2024 bowman break going for 3700 for 31 spots, paper included.
The odds of 3.7k coming out of the case have to be under 1 percent.
Case had at most 1.5k in value, maybe 3 teams make money

10 years ago i remember boxes were 100

300 a box for a 5 dollar auto is crazy


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