HOF Pace Tracker

[seanrs1]

Thank you for putting up the time and effort to update this post. It is always my favorite post and makes me feel better about collecting active/modern players that have a chance to make the HOF.

[jduds]

Originally Posted by tyrith

Now on to the players I'm tracking currently -
WAR as of end of 2023 + 2024 WAR = career WAR
STATS THROUGH 5/12/24

Age 20
Avg HOF Season: 0.8
Min Career: 0.0
WAR HOF Career Pace: 0.8

Caminero, Junior 0.1 + 0.0 = 0.1

Age 21
Avg HOF Season: 1.4
Min Career: 0.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 1.9

Dominguez, Jasson 0.3 + 0 = 0.3 ADDED
Merrill, Jackson 0 + 0.8 = 0.8 ADDED
Perez, Eury 1.4 + 0 = 1.4
Carter, Evan 1.2 + 0.4 = 1.6 ADDED
-- It's hard to imagine a player having a more fun start to their career than bashing the heck out of the ball for a month, winning a WS playing every game, and then getting to play full time the next year at age 21.

Age 22
Avg HOF Season: 2.3
Min Career: 0.8
WAR HOF Career Pace: 3.8

Crow-Armstrong, Pete -0.2 + 0.3 = 0.1 ADDED
Harrison, Kyle -0.1 + 0.5 = 0.4 ADDED
-- Keith Law had Harrison one spot below Skenes coming into the season FWIW.
Tovar, Ezequiel 1.4 + 0.7 = 2.1
Alvarez, Francisco 3.1 + 0.2 = 3.3
de la Cruz, Elly 1.9 + 1.8 = 3.7
-- This is what the start of a potential inner circle career looks like. I suspect the K rate is always going to be high, but as long as he's drawing walks he's going to put up ridiculous value stats playing the 6.

Age 23
Avg HOF Season: 3.3
Min Career: 2.0
WAR HOF Career Pace: 6.4

Abrams, CJ 1.9 + 1.2 = 3.1
-- Feels like Abrams is a pretty decent buy right now, especially with where his prices are versus the next guy in this list.
Volpe, Anthony 2 + 1.9 = 3.9
Greene, Riley 3.3 + 1.5 = 4.8
Carroll, Corbin 6.8 + 0.0 = 6.81
-- Ruh roh. Something definitely seems to be physically wrong here. I was personally extremely excited for Carroll coming into the season, but if this is a portent of where his health is going to be for the rest of his career...
Henderson, Gunnar 5.6 + 2.3 = 7.9
Harris II, Michael 8.5 + 0.6 = 9.1
Rodriguez, Julio 11.3 + 0.7 = 12
-- This is the second season in a row where Julio has gotten off to a meh start. His 2023 season was carried by a good July and an insane August, and he's going to have to do it again this year.

Age 24
Avg HOF Season: 4.0
Min Career: 3.8
WAR HOF Career Pace: 9.6

Greene, Hunter 3.6 + 1.2 = 4.8
Detmers, Reid 4.6 + 0.6 = 5.2
Witt Jr, Bobby 8.2 + 2.7 = 10.9
-- Another SS where the walk rate is going to play a huge part of his future - the extra 20 points of OBP could be the difference between being a star and being a serious MVP candidate.

Age 25
Avg HOF Season: 4.5
Min Career: 6.4
WAR HOF Career Pace: 13.1

Kirk, Alejandro 7.5 + 0.4 = 7.9
Paredes, Isaac 6.4 + 1.5 = 7.9
Strider, Spencer 10.3 + 0.0 = 10.3
Guerrero Jr, Vladimir 11.5 + 0.7 = 12.2
-- He's actually down over 50 points of slugging% versus 2023, but fWAR doesn't hate his defense nearly as much as the last few years so far this season.
Gimenez, Andres 12 + 0.7 = 12.7
Tatis Jr, Fernando 17.3 + 1.3 = 18.6
-- The decline in his batting average from his first couple of seasons has been startling and is really going to hold him back if it's a permanent feature, particularly now that he's a corner OF.
Soto, Juan 28.3 + 2.3 = 30.6

Age 26
Avg HOF Season: 5.0
Min Career: 9.6
WAR HOF Career Pace: 17.1

Clase, Emmanuel 6.7 + 0.9 = 7.6
-- Clase is having a hot enough year he may actually manage to hang on to this page for his age 27 season, but age 26 is the first season where it becomes functionally impossible for an RP to hit the average WAR total.
Kwan, Steven 8.1 + 1.9 = 10
Rutschman, Adley 10.4 + 1.1 = 11.5
-- Most of the vets that aren't on this page that you might think have some vague HOF chance are catchers. I am a major believer in Adley's HOF chances as long as he manages to have one signature season eventually.
Robert Jr, Luis 11.9 + 0.0 = 11.9
-- While he'll be on the page for next season also, it feels like the race is run in terms of him being a true star with yet another injury.
Bichette, Bo 16 + -0.2 = 15.8
-- His barrel rate has tanked so far this year, and his BABIP and AVG have gone along with it.
Acuna Jr, Ronald 27.2 + 1 = 28.2
-- What happens if 2023 is the only time Acuna is north of a 5 WAR player? There are some RFs that are in the HOF with extremely mid WAR7 totals - Larry Walker, Tony Gwynn, and Vladimir Guerrero all got voted in between 40-45 on that. But 6x5 + 9 is only 39...he has to have another 7 or 8 WAR season in him eventually, right?

Age 27
Avg HOF Season: 5.1
Min Career: 13.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 21.2

Arraez, Luis 10.2 + 0.2 = 10.4 ADDED
-- Being a DH with no power is a hard way to make a living, but he just barely made the cutoff to make it on the page.
Hayes, Ke'Bryan 10.1 + 0.5 = 10.6
Hoerner, Nico 11.1 + 0.8 = 11.9
Torres, Gleyber 14.4 + 0.1 = 14.5
-- Gleyber has played every game so far, but how long is that goign to continue if he stays below .300 on both parts of OPS?l
Webb, Logan 14.3 + 1.5 = 15.8
Riley, Austin 16 + 1 = 17
Alvarez, Yordan 17.9 + 0.7 = 18.6
-- I'm shocked Alvarez even has 0.7 WAR so far this season; he's down bad in both components of OBP and his hard hit rate is down a good bit for the second year in a row.
Tucker, Kyle 16.8 + 2.3 = 19.1
-- As of this post, Tucker is leading MLB in HR. Hitting 40-50 HR would be a good way to break out of the 5 WAR/yr cycle if he's actually going to make a run at the Hall.
Albies, Ozzie 19.1 + 0.6 = 19.7
Devers, Rafael 21.3 + 1.1 = 22.4
-- For having the highest WAR count for a 27 year old, I just feel so meh about Devers, although he's off to a great start, fueled by a big spike in his walk rate.

Age 28
Avg HOF Season: 4.9
Min Career: 17.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 25.1

Alcantara, Sandy 16.1 + 0 = 16.1
Adames, Willy 16.4 + 1.7 = 18.1
Bellinger, Cody 21.7 + 0.5 = 22.2

Age 29
Avg HOF Season: 4.8
Min Career: 21.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 28.9

Burnes, Corbin 17.7 + 0.9 = 18.6
-- If he can stay on track to pitch close to 200 innings for the 3rd season in a row, he will make a stupid amount of money this offseason. Health > total domination.
Bieber, Shane 20.6 + 0.8 = 21.4
Ohtani, Shohei 31.3 + 2.6 = 33.9
Correa, Carlos 33.9 + 0.7 = 34.6

Age 30
Avg HOF Season: 4.6
Min Career: 25.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 32.6

Marte, Ketel 21.7 + 2 = 23.7 ADDED
Olson, Matt 23.8 + -0.1 = 23.7
-- His Statcast numbers seem pretty similar to the last few years in terms of quality of contact, but he's massively underperforming his xSLG so far.
Seager, Corey 32.2 + 0.4 = 32.6
Bregman, Alex 35.5 + 0.1 = 35.6
-- He tripled his seasonal HR total the night after I pulled the stats and added 0.4 WAR. Might be the start of his annual breakout.
Lindor, Francisco 46.6 + 1.1 = 47.7
-- I am one of the biggest Lindor for Hall homers on this message board. He is yet again on track for a 5 WAR season fueled by the combo of good defense and having a pulse at the plate as a SS.

Age 31
Avg HOF Season: 4.3
Min Career: 28.9
WAR HOF Career Pace: 36.1

Chapman, Matt 25.9 + 0.01 = 25.91
Nola, Aaron 33.9 + 0.7 = 34.6
-- I'm sure I will write a 3000 word essay on this at some point this year, but I expect Aaron Nola to wind up in the Hall someday if he doesn't have any major arm injuries for the next 5-6 years. Health is the most important skill in a modern SP, and he has it.
Turner, Trea 37.2 + 1.5 = 38.7
Bogaerts, Xander 38.7 + 0.3 = 39
-- Speaking of weak WAR7 players, Bogaerts looks like he's in danger to a Miguel Tejada career track to me. He needs to do what Tejada didn't and keep being productive into his mid 30s. Moving to 3B this year is going to be a major WAR anchor.
Ramirez, Jose 45.3 + 0.5 = 45.8
Harper, Bryce 47.3 + 1.4 = 48.7
Machado, Manny 50.2 + 0.0 = 50.2
Betts, Mookie 55.4 + 2.8 = 58.2


Age 32
Avg HOF Season: 4.0
Min Career: 32.6
WAR HOF Career Pace: 39.2

Bryant, Kris 30.3 + -0.2 = 30.1
-- The end of season writeup and farewell to Bryant is going to be epic.
Yelich, Christian 39.9 + 1.2 = 41.1
Judge, Aaron 40.5 + 1.6 = 42.1
Trout, Mike 84.8 + 1 = 85.8
-- I have a lengthy post in the Betts v. Trout thread about Trout's ridiculous career, but the TLDR is that Trout is something like 8th in bWAR's WAR7. The only player after Willie Mays that's higher is Barry Bonds..

Age 33
Avg HOF Season: 3.4
Min Career: 36.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 42.0

Semien, Marcus 31.9 + 2 = 33.9 ADDED
-- Semien just made up the gap to be on the list. If he has 45 WAR at the end of 2025, things could get really interesting...if he has another 3 or 4 high quality years in him after this year, he could make it to 2K hits and 300 HR as a middle infielder, and those are some pretty good accumulation totals for a modern player.
Cole, Gerrit 43.9 + 0 = 43.9
Arenado, Nolan 47.5 + 1 = 48.5
-- This year looks very important in terms of how quickly Arenado is going to make it - he could be anywhere from 1st ballot to a vet committee guy at this point.

Age 34
Avg HOF Season: 3.0
Min Career: 39.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 44.3

Rizzo, Anthony 36.3 + 0.7 = 37
Stanton, Giancarlo 42 + 0.1 = 42.1
-- The new active leader in HR, and with Trout on the shelf for a large chunk of this season, he might stay there for several more years.
Altuve, Jose 54 + 1.7 = 55.7
Freeman, Freddie 57.2 + 1.3 = 58.5

Age 35
Avg HOF Season: 2.6
Min Career: 42.0
WAR HOF Career Pace: 46.4

Sale, Chris 47.5 + 1.2 = 48.7
-- Having a season where he pitches 160 innings would do wonders for getting him over the finish line, and he's already 1/4 of the way there.

Age 36
Avg HOF Season: 2.0
Min Career: 44.3
WAR HOF Career Pace: 48.1

deGrom, Jacob 42.6 + 0 = 42.6
-- deGrom would drop from the list if he doesn't get at least a month worth of starts in this year. That's not how it's gonna go, though.
Goldschmidt, Paul 55.5 + -0.4 = 55.1
Kershaw, Clayton 75.8 + 0 = 75.8

Age 37
Avg HOF Season: 1.6
Min Career: 46.4
WAR HOF Career Pace: 49.3

McCutchen, Andrew 52.1 + -0.2 = 51.9
-- He got past 300 HR this season, but this is a super borderline WAR total and I have to wonder how long the Pirates will keep running him out there if they check out of the wild card race.

Age 39
Avg HOF Season: 0.9
Min Career: 49.3
WAR HOF Career Pace: 51.0

Scherzer, Max 72.5 + 0 = 72.5

Age 40+
Avg HOF Season: 0.7
Min Career: 50.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 51.5

Verlander, Justin 81.3 + 0.1 = 81.4

Cool deal. Thanks for adding that. I would note that this is the 3rd season in a row J.Rod has started horribly. If that's going to be his pattern, it definitely lowers his ceiling a bit.

[Silent George]

Hey, super cool you updated!

My situation was simple:

I had awful, ongoing health issues that each time I thought they were done they...were not done. (but they appear to be done now, knock on wood).

So I have all sorts of unfinished drafts and stuff from my usual writeups, and it became too much to even attempt.

But surely I can update the list right?

Well stupid me, I committed to a podcast on the Cardinals season, and I was like "Hey, I'll do 10, every 1/10 of the way through the season."

And then I thought, but how am I going to have time to update the tracker?

SO then I thought...what if I do the tracker once a month? Yeah, I'll do it once a month.

And then I got called to a sudden 2 week business trip at the end of the month and was without my spreadsheets.

So anyway, carry on with your methodology if you like, or we can both do it, or I will post in June, or whatever. Happy people are still interested. And if you want to hear someone melt down about Cardinals management, now there's a podcast for that!

[hammertime]

Originally Posted by Silent George

Hey, super cool you updated!

My situation was simple:

I had awful, ongoing health issues that each time I thought they were done they...were not done. (but they appear to be done now, knock on wood).

So I have all sorts of unfinished drafts and stuff from my usual writeups, and it became too much to even attempt.

But surely I can update the list right?

Well stupid me, I committed to a podcast on the Cardinals season, and I was like "Hey, I'll do 10, every 1/10 of the way through the season."

And then I thought, but how am I going to have time to update the tracker?

SO then I thought...what if I do the tracker once a month? Yeah, I'll do it once a month.

And then I got called to a sudden 2 week business trip at the end of the month and was without my spreadsheets.

So anyway, carry on with your methodology if you like, or we can both do it, or I will post in June, or whatever. Happy people are still interested. And if you want to hear someone melt down about Cardinals management, now there's a podcast for that!

Good to hear from you, and glad you're doing well!

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by Silent George

Hey, super cool you updated!

My situation was simple:

I had awful, ongoing health issues that each time I thought they were done they...were not done. (but they appear to be done now, knock on wood).

So I have all sorts of unfinished drafts and stuff from my usual writeups, and it became too much to even attempt.

But surely I can update the list right?

Well stupid me, I committed to a podcast on the Cardinals season, and I was like "Hey, I'll do 10, every 1/10 of the way through the season."

And then I thought, but how am I going to have time to update the tracker?

SO then I thought...what if I do the tracker once a month? Yeah, I'll do it once a month.

And then I got called to a sudden 2 week business trip at the end of the month and was without my spreadsheets.

So anyway, carry on with your methodology if you like, or we can both do it, or I will post in June, or whatever. Happy people are still interested. And if you want to hear someone melt down about Cardinals management, now there's a podcast for that!

You're welcome to do whatever or however much you like - really it was the awesomeness of what you've been doing that inspired me to make whatever effort I could to try to fill the gap. And I can give you my raw spreadsheet with the numbers pretty much anytime, it's all the formatting and actually thinking through stuff that takes effort.

[rwperu34]

Thanks for updating.

[lawrencedc1]

I don't post much, but when I do, it's because I love these updates. Stay vigilent my friend

[zbaseball21]

I love that this thread has life again. Please continue!

[redauto5]

<<<Tucker, Kyle 16.8 + 2.3 = 19.1

-- As of this post, Tucker is leading MLB in HR. Hitting 40-50 HR would be a good way to break out of the 5 WAR/yr cycle if he's actually going to make a run at the Hall.>>>

Tucker has added another full WAR + to his stat line since this update. His trajectory seems, at this moment, to indicate his HOF chances have increased dramatically this season IF, as is mentioned above, he can keep up this new level of performance to a degree. I know Kyle is on a heater right now, and chances are always greater that he regresses to the mean sooner rather than later, but I've just got a feeling that King Tuck's elite play has some staying power.

He's had 3 very good stat lines in his year 23-26 seasons, COVID messed with a good year 22 season, and the Astros messed around with his playing time during a very good year 21 season as it seemed they didn't quite believe he was ready due to an abysmal rookie year in 2018. I'm really liking the steady trajectory upward as opposed to so many ups and downs for other players on this list. What say you BO? I may behin betting more heavily on a Kyle Tucker HOF career.



Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

[Stifle]

How many players who are on the “Fringe / Bubble” would have their value immensely increased with a Cory Seager like Post Season resume ?

Joey Votto is a player who would have won 3 Post Season MVP’s would have gone a long way.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by redauto5

<<<Tucker, Kyle 16.8 + 2.3 = 19.1

-- As of this post, Tucker is leading MLB in HR. Hitting 40-50 HR would be a good way to break out of the 5 WAR/yr cycle if he's actually going to make a run at the Hall.>>>

Tucker has added another full WAR + to his stat line since this update. His trajectory seems, at this moment, to indicate his HOF chances have increased dramatically this season IF, as is mentioned above, he can keep up this new level of performance to a degree. I know Kyle is on a heater right now, and chances are always greater that he regresses to the mean sooner rather than later, but I've just got a feeling that King Tuck's elite play has some staying power.

He's had 3 very good stat lines in his year 23-26 seasons, COVID messed with a good year 22 season, and the Astros messed around with his playing time during a very good year 21 season as it seemed they didn't quite believe he was ready due to an abysmal rookie year in 2018. I'm really liking the steady trajectory upward as opposed to so many ups and downs for other players on this list. What say you BO? I may behin betting more heavily on a Kyle Tucker HOF career.



Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

I've got a couple of half written pieces where this would come up, but ATM I think Tucker is more likely than not to get in eventually, and is much more likely to make it than his teammates Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez. Three main reasons -

1) Unlike Yordan, he doesn't kill his WAR with positional/defensive adjustments.
2) He hasn't had a serious IL stint during his peak.
3) This Astros team is clearly post-peak, and it's looking like Tucker will be elsewhere while he's still in his prime. This both gets him away from the Astros media taint and will give him more chances at postseason relevance.

Even if he has a top 3 MVP finish, 7-8 WAR season as seems very possible right now, there will still be a long way to go, but Soto and Acuna are the only position players that are both younger than Tucker and ahead of him in bWAR, with Tucker having a very good shot to pass Acuna before he's back playing again. If he gets to that 7-8 WAR range this year, he'd really just need one more 7 WAR kind of season to have enough peak to get there if he can rattle off some more 5-6 WAR seasons, and then it's just a question of if he can make it to some decent accumulation totals. He'll always be down 100 hits and 20 HR because of the COVID year, but he's not the only one.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by Stifle

How many players who are on the “Fringe / Bubble” would have their value immensely increased with a Cory Seager like Post Season resume ?

Joey Votto is a player who would have won 3 Post Season MVP’s would have gone a long way.

I've talked about this at length either in this thread and/or the Votto thread, but Votto is 100% going to make it on the BBWAA ballot at some point. He's Todd Helton but with a much, much better MVP balloting record and no Coors Field complications. I really doubt it takes him six ballots, either - my suspicion is that Votto gets in on his 2nd ballot.

As to your question, a few candidates

1) Evan Longoria had some postseason shots that he did not take advantage of. At age 23 he went 1-20 in a WS that Tampa lost in 5 games. If he was the MVP of that series instead, that along could propel him through the BBWAA ballot.

2) Bobby Abreu seems like the kind of player that gets in through the vet committee someday, but he only ever had 79 career playoff ABs. He did okay with them, but he had one of the most out of sight, out of mind 60 WAR careers imaginable.

3) If Nolan Arenado is in the twilight of his career and doesn't have a lengthy accumulation phase in his mid 30s, his 35 career playoff PAs are going to be a giant missed opportunity. For all his high MVP finishes, neither his stat totals nor his WAR are really over the line yet and he could wind up in the Evan Longoria boat.

4) If Ronald Acuna's knees are going to be this garbo, him not being on the 2021 Braves title team is going to be a big gap in his resume.

[redauto5]

Originally Posted by tyrith

I've got a couple of half written pieces where this would come up, but ATM I think Tucker is more likely than not to get in eventually, and is much more likely to make it than his teammates Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez. Three main reasons -



1) Unlike Yordan, he doesn't kill his WAR with positional/defensive adjustments.

2) He hasn't had a serious IL stint during his peak.

3) This Astros team is clearly post-peak, and it's looking like Tucker will be elsewhere while he's still in his prime. This both gets him away from the Astros media taint and will give him more chances at postseason relevance.



Even if he has a top 3 MVP finish, 7-8 WAR season as seems very possible right now, there will still be a long way to go, but Soto and Acuna are the only position players that are both younger than Tucker and ahead of him in bWAR, with Tucker having a very good shot to pass Acuna before he's back playing again. If he gets to that 7-8 WAR range this year, he'd really just need one more 7 WAR kind of season to have enough peak to get there if he can rattle off some more 5-6 WAR seasons, and then it's just a question of if he can make it to some decent accumulation totals. He'll always be down 100 hits and 20 HR because of the COVID year, but he's not the only one.

Great analysis, thank you. Just what I was looking for. You make a great point that Tucker probably goes elsewhere for the end of.his prime/early twilight years which will help both with playoff resume as well as getting away from the Astros stink.

Finishing with 7 or 8 WAR this year and doing something similar next year followed by some 5-6 WAR seasons certainly seems doable with his playing style and trajectory, which would be a good starting place for ha consideration. It's obviously still a gamble that it plays out this way or better.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by redauto5

Finishing with 7 or 8 WAR this year and doing something similar next year followed by some 5-6 WAR seasons certainly seems doable with his playing style and trajectory, which would be a good starting place for ha consideration. It's obviously still a gamble that it plays out this way or better.

Only the absolute, very best players can really lock HOF by that 28-29 range - Mookie, Trout, and probably Soto will. Everyone else has to have some sort of career into their early 30s - and generally more like mid 30s, as we've seen with guys like Evan Longoria, Andrew McCutchen, and Giancarlo Stanton that seemed like absolute locks at age 28 and who have little chance of getting in on the BBWAA ballot now.

[redauto5]

Originally Posted by tyrith

Only the absolute, very best players can really lock HOF by that 28-29 range - Mookie, Trout, and probably Soto will. Everyone else has to have some sort of career into their early 30s - and generally more like mid 30s, as we've seen with guys like Evan Longoria, Andrew McCutchen, and Giancarlo Stanton that seemed like absolute locks at age 28 and who have little chance of getting in on the BBWAA ballot now.

Oh I agree. We are talking about a "good enough" peak, and Tucker will have to not fall apart in his early 30s like those other players to accumulate enough WAR and counting stats to get there.

Say he end up with 26 WAR at the end of this season, and puts a 7 WAR season together next season to get to 33 to end his year 28 season. 3 straight 5 WAR seasons to get to 48 by year 31. 3 straight 3 WAR seasons to 57 by age 34. 3 straight 2 WAR seasons to 63 by 37. The last 5 or 10 WAR could be super tough, as we've seen for Longoria Cutch etc. We shall see.

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[tyrith]

I wanted to write some more about a few players, so I'm just gonna go ahead and do an update to give me a format to do it.

-----

Now on to the players I'm tracking currently -
WAR as of 5/12/24 + WAR for 5/13 thru 5/13 = career WAR
For added players the second number will be full season 2024 instead

STATS THROUGH 5/31/24

Age 20
Avg HOF Season: 0.8
Min Career: 0.0
WAR HOF Career Pace: 0.8

Caminero, Junior 0.1 + 0 = 0.1

Age 21
Avg HOF Season: 1.4
Min Career: 0.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 1.9

Dominguez, Jasson 0.3 + 0 = 0.3
Merrill, Jackson 0.8 + 0 = 0.8
Carter, Evan 1.6 + -0.3 = 1.3
Perez, Eury 1.4 + 0 = 1.4

Age 22
Avg HOF Season: 2.3
Min Career: 0.8
WAR HOF Career Pace: 3.8

Harrison, Kyle 0.4 + -0.1 = 0.3
Crow-Armstrong, Pete 0.1 + 0.3 = 0.4
Skenes, Paul 0 + 0.7 = 0.7 ADDED
- Is he the one? We're going to be waiting for bated breath for eight years to see if he can get through his 20s without needing TJ. He may already be the 5th most likely pitcher on this page to make the Hall (depending on what you think about Aaron Nola.)
Jones, Jared 0 + 1 = 1 ADDED
Tovar, Ezequiel 2.1 + 1.2 = 3.3
- The hype on Tovar feels extremely weak versus what he's actually doing so far, probably because he's stuck on one of the least relevant teams in the league. Compare his rate stats vs 2023 Volpe - or even 2023 Gunnar.
Alvarez, Francisco 3.3 + 0 = 3.3
de la Cruz, Elly 3.7 + 0.6 = 4.3
- Being a defensive plus SS means never having to say you're sorry for sub .600 OPS months. But he seems like he's going to be on the roller coast track that Julio is also on.

Age 23
Avg HOF Season: 3.3
Min Career: 2.0
WAR HOF Career Pace: 6.4

Woods Richardson, Simeon 0 + 0.9 = 0.9 ADDED
Abrams, CJ 3.1 + -0.4 = 2.7
Greene, Riley 4.8 + -0.2 = 4.6
Volpe, Anthony 3.9 + 0.8 = 4.7
- He seems likely to in this year's ASG (although it's a crowded group at SS) and Fangraphs is absolutely in love with his defense this year.
Carroll, Corbin 6.8 + 0.2 = 7
- Forget the power issues for a moment. Carroll is 0/2 on SB attempts in the last six weeks. He stole a base every three games last year. Something seems extremely wrong with his head, his body, or both.
Henderson, Gunnar 7.9 + 1.1 = 9
- This is shaping up to be an incredibly close MVP race between Henderson, Witt, Judge, and Soto. If Henderson does it, he'll be the youngest player since Mike Trout to do so. He's on pace for an 8 WAR season, and the only active players to do that at 23 and under are Betts, Harper, and Trout. This is what the start of an inner circle HOF career looks like.
Harris II, Michael 9.1 + 0.1 = 9.2
Rodriguez, Julio 12 + 0.1 = 12.1

Age 24
Avg HOF Season: 4.0
Min Career: 3.8
WAR HOF Career Pace: 9.6

Detmers, Reid 5.2 + 0.2 = 5.4
- I'm pretty sure Detmers presence on this list is going to annoy me every go for the next year and a half.
Greene, Hunter 4.8 + 0.7 = 5.5
Witt Jr, Bobby 10.9 + 1 = 11.9
- Amusingly, both Henderson and Witt were born in June, which means Henderson is still 22 and Witt is still 23. Pretty much everything I said about Henderson still applies here even though he's a year older.

Age 25
Avg HOF Season: 4.5
Min Career: 6.4
WAR HOF Career Pace: 13.1

Kirk, Alejandro 7.9 + 0.4 = 8.3
Paredes, Isaac 7.9 + 0.7 = 8.6
Strider, Spencer 10.3 + 0 = 10.3
Guerrero Jr, Vladimir 12.2 + 0.2 = 12.4
Gimenez, Andres 12.7 + 0.7 = 13.4
Tatis Jr, Fernando 18.6 + 0.1 = 18.7
Soto, Juan 30.6 + 1.2 = 31.8

Age 26
Avg HOF Season: 5.0
Min Career: 9.6
WAR HOF Career Pace: 17.1

Pena, Jeremy 6 + 1.6 = 7.6 ADDED
Clase, Emmanuel 7.6 + 0.4 = 8
- Clase will remain on the list as an exception to the career WAR requirement so long as he remains healthy and effective.
Kwan, Steven 10 + 0.2 = 10.2
Contreras, William 7.7 + 2.6 = 10.3 ADDED
- Should have been added in the prior update.
Robert Jr, Luis 11.91 + 0.0 = 11.9
Rutschman, Adley 11.5 + 0.6 = 12.1
- Adley was a .558 OPS the last two weeks, but he's a catcher that doesn't suck on defense, so he's still added half a win in that time frame.
Bichette, Bo 15.8 + 0.6 = 16.4
Acuna Jr, Ronald 28.2 + 0.2 = 28.4
- Remember when I ruminated about what would happen if Acuna only ever had one season north of 5 WAR? Getting wrecked by injuries is how Acuna could turn into Andrew McCutchen 2.0.

Age 27
Avg HOF Season: 5.1
Min Career: 13.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 21.2

Hayes, Ke'Bryan 10.6 + -0.2 = 10.4
Arraez, Luis 10.4 + 0.8 = 11.2
- The inverse Elly - a 1B can have a .450 OBP month and it's only a 1 WAR month without massive power behind it.
Hoerner, Nico 11.9 + 0.2 = 12.1
Torres, Gleyber 14.5 + 0.5 = 15
Webb, Logan 15.8 + 0.3 = 16.1
Riley, Austin 17 + -0.3 = 16.7
- Riley has three consecutive top 7 MVP finishes, but this is going to be his time to shine. He's deeper in his career than when Acuna missed 2021, and Freeman isn't on the team anymore. If the Braves do anything great this year, Riley seems like he'll get a lot of credit.
Alvarez, Yordan 18.6 + 0.4 = 19
Albies, Ozzie 19.7 + 0.1 = 19.8
Tucker, Kyle 19.1 + 0.8 = 19.9
Devers, Rafael 22.4 + 0.5 = 22.9

Age 28
Avg HOF Season: 4.9
Min Career: 17.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 25.1

Alcantara, Sandy 16.1 + 0 = 16.1
Adames, Willy 18.1 + 0.7 = 18.8
Bellinger, Cody 22.2 + 0.3 = 22.5

Age 29
Avg HOF Season: 4.8
Min Career: 21.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 28.9

Burnes, Corbin 18.6 + 0.9 = 19.5
Bieber, Shane 21.4 + 0 = 21.4
Ohtani, Shohei 33.9 + 0.4 = 34.3
Correa, Carlos 34.6 + 0.8 = 35.4
- A 5 WAR season for Correa would be massive for his Hall chances. He's always going to have the Astros taint, and he's got no shot at high end career accumulation totals other than maybe 300-350 HR as a SS. If Correa makes the Hall, it's going to be a WAR/WAR7/JAWS argument. Right now, his WAR7 (bWAR) is at 37.8 and includes seasons of 3.7 and 3.1 - and if you look at the historical comps, the difference between 50 career bWAR/38 WAR7 and 60/42 is pretty massive. With the baggage, Correa has no shot if he doesn't get to those later numbers.

Age 30
Avg HOF Season: 4.6
Min Career: 25.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 32.6

Marte, Ketel 23.7 + -0.1 = 23.6
Olson, Matt 23.7 + 0.6 = 24.3
Seager, Corey 32.6 + 1.1 = 33.7
- How much slack will two World Series MVPs get him? The odds of him getting to 60 WAR seem not very good, although he just had a two week stretch of 361/489/1.056 to get his 2024 back on track. He's got a real shot at getting to 300-350 HR as a shortstop, though, and if he can get to 2K hits and a WAR total that at least gets to 53 or so, that feels like the profile of a player that will weasel their way in and his meh defense will get forgiven.
Bregman, Alex 35.6 + 0.8 = 36.4
- He's hit 6 homers since the last WAR update. If his BABIP fixes itself, this season will probably wind up looking pretty similar to the last couple.
Lindor, Francisco 47.7 + 0.8 = 48.5
- Close to .400 OBP the last two weeks. We've seen this slow start, hot middle and later season routine in both 2021 and 2023, and his defense is still grading out well, so he's going to be fine I'd imagine.

Age 31
Avg HOF Season: 4.3
Min Career: 28.9
WAR HOF Career Pace: 36.1

Chapman, Matt 25.91 + 1.39 = 27.3
Nola, Aaron 34.6 + 0.4 = 35
Turner, Trea 38.7 + 0 = 38.7
Bogaerts, Xander 39 + 0.1 = 39.1
- Another ruh roh player. I talked about WAR7 with Correa - Bogaerts is only at 34.7 and his lowest two seasons are 3.8 and 4.3. With him moving off SS this season, and now missing most of the rest of this year...this is what a Hall of Very Good player looks like.
Ramirez, Jose 45.8 + 1.6 = 47.4
- At this point, I think we're talking more about what ballot Ramirez makes into the Hall on versus if he makes it, assuming he can keep humming along a couple more years.
Harper, Bryce 48.7 + 0.7 = 49.4
Machado, Manny 50.2 + 0.1 = 50.3
Betts, Mookie 58.2 + 0.5 = 58.7

Age 32
Avg HOF Season: 4.0
Min Career: 32.6
WAR HOF Career Pace: 39.2

Bryant, Kris 30.1 + -0.2 = 29.9
Yelich, Christian 41.1 + 0.4 = 41.5
Judge, Aaron 42.1 + 2.1 = 44.2
Trout, Mike 85.8 + 0 = 85.8

Age 33
Avg HOF Season: 3.4
Min Career: 36.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 42.0

Semien, Marcus 33.9 + 0 = 33.9
Cole, Gerrit 43.9 + 0 = 43.9
Arenado, Nolan 48.5 + -0.2 = 48.3
- Arenado has a 6 win fWAR to bWAR gap ATM. If he gets 10 more WAR in both system, it won't really matter.

Age 34
Avg HOF Season: 3.0
Min Career: 39.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 44.3

Rizzo, Anthony 37 + -0.6 = 36.4
Stanton, Giancarlo 42.1 + 0.2 = 42.3
Altuve, Jose 55.7 + -0.1 = 55.6
Freeman, Freddie 58.5 + 0.3 = 58.8

Age 35
Avg HOF Season: 2.6
Min Career: 42.0
WAR HOF Career Pace: 46.4

Sale, Chris 48.7 + 1 = 49.7
- He's humming right along toward a 6 WAR season and what would be his 8th top 6 in the Cy Young voting. For all his injuries, he's still 9th among current pitchers in IP.

Age 36
Avg HOF Season: 2.0
Min Career: 44.3
WAR HOF Career Pace: 48.1

deGrom, Jacob 42.6 + 0 = 42.6
Goldschmidt, Paul 55.1 + 0.5 = 55.6
- Goldschmidt has the same roughly 6 WAR gap between fWAR and bWAR, which appears to be about his defense. His K rate has shot way up this year in a way that's very disconerting for his ability to keep being an effective player moving forward.
Kershaw, Clayton 75.8 + 0 = 75.8

Age 37
Avg HOF Season: 1.6
Min Career: 46.4
WAR HOF Career Pace: 49.3

McCutchen, Andrew 51.9 + 0.6 = 52.5

Age 39
Avg HOF Season: 0.9
Min Career: 49.3
WAR HOF Career Pace: 51.0

Scherzer, Max 72.5 + 0 = 72.5

Age 40+
Avg HOF Season: 0.7
Min Career: 50.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 51.5

Verlander, Justin 81.4 + 0.3 = 81.7

-----

BONUS LIST
Position players with no one in a younger season with more bWAR

Mike Trout (32) - 86.2
Mookie Betts (31) - 68.4
Francisco Lindor (30) - 43.9
Carlos Correa (29) - 42.1
Juan Soto (25) - 31.7
No one age 24 or under is in the top 100 of active position players.

[rms13]

Originally Posted by tyrith

I wanted to write some more about a few players, so I'm just gonna go ahead and do an update to give me a format to do it.

-----

Now on to the players I'm tracking currently -
WAR as of 5/12/24 + WAR for 5/13 thru 5/13 = career WAR
For added players the second number will be full season 2024 instead

STATS THROUGH 5/31/24

Age 20
Avg HOF Season: 0.8
Min Career: 0.0
WAR HOF Career Pace: 0.8

Caminero, Junior 0.1 + 0 = 0.1

Age 21
Avg HOF Season: 1.4
Min Career: 0.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 1.9

Dominguez, Jasson 0.3 + 0 = 0.3
Merrill, Jackson 0.8 + 0 = 0.8
Carter, Evan 1.6 + -0.3 = 1.3
Perez, Eury 1.4 + 0 = 1.4

Age 22
Avg HOF Season: 2.3
Min Career: 0.8
WAR HOF Career Pace: 3.8

Harrison, Kyle 0.4 + -0.1 = 0.3
Crow-Armstrong, Pete 0.1 + 0.3 = 0.4
Skenes, Paul 0 + 0.7 = 0.7 ADDED
- Is he the one? We're going to be waiting for bated breath for eight years to see if he can get through his 20s without needing TJ. He may already be the 5th most likely pitcher on this page to make the Hall (depending on what you think about Aaron Nola.)
Jones, Jared 0 + 1 = 1 ADDED
Tovar, Ezequiel 2.1 + 1.2 = 3.3
- The hype on Tovar feels extremely weak versus what he's actually doing so far, probably because he's stuck on one of the least relevant teams in the league. Compare his rate stats vs 2023 Volpe - or even 2023 Gunnar.
Alvarez, Francisco 3.3 + 0 = 3.3
de la Cruz, Elly 3.7 + 0.6 = 4.3
- Being a defensive plus SS means never having to say you're sorry for sub .600 OPS months. But he seems like he's going to be on the roller coast track that Julio is also on.

Age 23
Avg HOF Season: 3.3
Min Career: 2.0
WAR HOF Career Pace: 6.4

Woods Richardson, Simeon 0 + 0.9 = 0.9 ADDED
Abrams, CJ 3.1 + -0.4 = 2.7
Greene, Riley 4.8 + -0.2 = 4.6
Volpe, Anthony 3.9 + 0.8 = 4.7
- He seems likely to in this year's ASG (although it's a crowded group at SS) and Fangraphs is absolutely in love with his defense this year.
Carroll, Corbin 6.8 + 0.2 = 7
- Forget the power issues for a moment. Carroll is 0/2 on SB attempts in the last six weeks. He stole a base every three games last year. Something seems extremely wrong with his head, his body, or both.
Henderson, Gunnar 7.9 + 1.1 = 9
- This is shaping up to be an incredibly close MVP race between Henderson, Witt, Judge, and Soto. If Henderson does it, he'll be the youngest player since Mike Trout to do so. He's on pace for an 8 WAR season, and the only active players to do that at 23 and under are Betts, Harper, and Trout. This is what the start of an inner circle HOF career looks like.
Harris II, Michael 9.1 + 0.1 = 9.2
Rodriguez, Julio 12 + 0.1 = 12.1

Age 24
Avg HOF Season: 4.0
Min Career: 3.8
WAR HOF Career Pace: 9.6

Detmers, Reid 5.2 + 0.2 = 5.4
- I'm pretty sure Detmers presence on this list is going to annoy me every go for the next year and a half.
Greene, Hunter 4.8 + 0.7 = 5.5
Witt Jr, Bobby 10.9 + 1 = 11.9
- Amusingly, both Henderson and Witt were born in June, which means Henderson is still 22 and Witt is still 23. Pretty much everything I said about Henderson still applies here even though he's a year older.

Age 25
Avg HOF Season: 4.5
Min Career: 6.4
WAR HOF Career Pace: 13.1

Kirk, Alejandro 7.9 + 0.4 = 8.3
Paredes, Isaac 7.9 + 0.7 = 8.6
Strider, Spencer 10.3 + 0 = 10.3
Guerrero Jr, Vladimir 12.2 + 0.2 = 12.4
Gimenez, Andres 12.7 + 0.7 = 13.4
Tatis Jr, Fernando 18.6 + 0.1 = 18.7
Soto, Juan 30.6 + 1.2 = 31.8

Age 26
Avg HOF Season: 5.0
Min Career: 9.6
WAR HOF Career Pace: 17.1

Pena, Jeremy 6 + 1.6 = 7.6 ADDED
Clase, Emmanuel 7.6 + 0.4 = 8
- Clase will remain on the list as an exception to the career WAR requirement so long as he remains healthy and effective.
Kwan, Steven 10 + 0.2 = 10.2
Contreras, William 7.7 + 2.6 = 10.3 ADDED
- Should have been added in the prior update.
Robert Jr, Luis 11.91 + 0.0 = 11.9
Rutschman, Adley 11.5 + 0.6 = 12.1
- Adley was a .558 OPS the last two weeks, but he's a catcher that doesn't suck on defense, so he's still added half a win in that time frame.
Bichette, Bo 15.8 + 0.6 = 16.4
Acuna Jr, Ronald 28.2 + 0.2 = 28.4
- Remember when I ruminated about what would happen if Acuna only ever had one season north of 5 WAR? Getting wrecked by injuries is how Acuna could turn into Andrew McCutchen 2.0.

Age 27
Avg HOF Season: 5.1
Min Career: 13.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 21.2

Hayes, Ke'Bryan 10.6 + -0.2 = 10.4
Arraez, Luis 10.4 + 0.8 = 11.2
- The inverse Elly - a 1B can have a .450 OBP month and it's only a 1 WAR month without massive power behind it.
Hoerner, Nico 11.9 + 0.2 = 12.1
Torres, Gleyber 14.5 + 0.5 = 15
Webb, Logan 15.8 + 0.3 = 16.1
Riley, Austin 17 + -0.3 = 16.7
- Riley has three consecutive top 7 MVP finishes, but this is going to be his time to shine. He's deeper in his career than when Acuna missed 2021, and Freeman isn't on the team anymore. If the Braves do anything great this year, Riley seems like he'll get a lot of credit.
Alvarez, Yordan 18.6 + 0.4 = 19
Albies, Ozzie 19.7 + 0.1 = 19.8
Tucker, Kyle 19.1 + 0.8 = 19.9
Devers, Rafael 22.4 + 0.5 = 22.9

Age 28
Avg HOF Season: 4.9
Min Career: 17.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 25.1

Alcantara, Sandy 16.1 + 0 = 16.1
Adames, Willy 18.1 + 0.7 = 18.8
Bellinger, Cody 22.2 + 0.3 = 22.5

Age 29
Avg HOF Season: 4.8
Min Career: 21.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 28.9

Burnes, Corbin 18.6 + 0.9 = 19.5
Bieber, Shane 21.4 + 0 = 21.4
Ohtani, Shohei 33.9 + 0.4 = 34.3
Correa, Carlos 34.6 + 0.8 = 35.4
- A 5 WAR season for Correa would be massive for his Hall chances. He's always going to have the Astros taint, and he's got no shot at high end career accumulation totals other than maybe 300-350 HR as a SS. If Correa makes the Hall, it's going to be a WAR/WAR7/JAWS argument. Right now, his WAR7 (bWAR) is at 37.8 and includes seasons of 3.7 and 3.1 - and if you look at the historical comps, the difference between 50 career bWAR/38 WAR7 and 60/42 is pretty massive. With the baggage, Correa has no shot if he doesn't get to those later numbers.

Age 30
Avg HOF Season: 4.6
Min Career: 25.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 32.6

Marte, Ketel 23.7 + -0.1 = 23.6
Olson, Matt 23.7 + 0.6 = 24.3
Seager, Corey 32.6 + 1.1 = 33.7
- How much slack will two World Series MVPs get him? The odds of him getting to 60 WAR seem not very good, although he just had a two week stretch of 361/489/1.056 to get his 2024 back on track. He's got a real shot at getting to 300-350 HR as a shortstop, though, and if he can get to 2K hits and a WAR total that at least gets to 53 or so, that feels like the profile of a player that will weasel their way in and his meh defense will get forgiven.
Bregman, Alex 35.6 + 0.8 = 36.4
- He's hit 6 homers since the last WAR update. If his BABIP fixes itself, this season will probably wind up looking pretty similar to the last couple.
Lindor, Francisco 47.7 + 0.8 = 48.5
- Close to .400 OBP the last two weeks. We've seen this slow start, hot middle and later season routine in both 2021 and 2023, and his defense is still grading out well, so he's going to be fine I'd imagine.

Age 31
Avg HOF Season: 4.3
Min Career: 28.9
WAR HOF Career Pace: 36.1

Chapman, Matt 25.91 + 1.39 = 27.3
Nola, Aaron 34.6 + 0.4 = 35
Turner, Trea 38.7 + 0 = 38.7
Bogaerts, Xander 39 + 0.1 = 39.1
- Another ruh roh player. I talked about WAR7 with Correa - Bogaerts is only at 34.7 and his lowest two seasons are 3.8 and 4.3. With him moving off SS this season, and now missing most of the rest of this year...this is what a Hall of Very Good player looks like.
Ramirez, Jose 45.8 + 1.6 = 47.4
- At this point, I think we're talking more about what ballot Ramirez makes into the Hall on versus if he makes it, assuming he can keep humming along a couple more years.
Harper, Bryce 48.7 + 0.7 = 49.4
Machado, Manny 50.2 + 0.1 = 50.3
Betts, Mookie 58.2 + 0.5 = 58.7

Age 32
Avg HOF Season: 4.0
Min Career: 32.6
WAR HOF Career Pace: 39.2

Bryant, Kris 30.1 + -0.2 = 29.9
Yelich, Christian 41.1 + 0.4 = 41.5
Judge, Aaron 42.1 + 2.1 = 44.2
Trout, Mike 85.8 + 0 = 85.8

Age 33
Avg HOF Season: 3.4
Min Career: 36.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 42.0

Semien, Marcus 33.9 + 0 = 33.9
Cole, Gerrit 43.9 + 0 = 43.9
Arenado, Nolan 48.5 + -0.2 = 48.3
- Arenado has a 6 win fWAR to bWAR gap ATM. If he gets 10 more WAR in both system, it won't really matter.

Age 34
Avg HOF Season: 3.0
Min Career: 39.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 44.3

Rizzo, Anthony 37 + -0.6 = 36.4
Stanton, Giancarlo 42.1 + 0.2 = 42.3
Altuve, Jose 55.7 + -0.1 = 55.6
Freeman, Freddie 58.5 + 0.3 = 58.8

Age 35
Avg HOF Season: 2.6
Min Career: 42.0
WAR HOF Career Pace: 46.4

Sale, Chris 48.7 + 1 = 49.7
- He's humming right along toward a 6 WAR season and what would be his 8th top 6 in the Cy Young voting. For all his injuries, he's still 9th among current pitchers in IP.

Age 36
Avg HOF Season: 2.0
Min Career: 44.3
WAR HOF Career Pace: 48.1

deGrom, Jacob 42.6 + 0 = 42.6
Goldschmidt, Paul 55.1 + 0.5 = 55.6
- Goldschmidt has the same roughly 6 WAR gap between fWAR and bWAR, which appears to be about his defense. His K rate has shot way up this year in a way that's very disconerting for his ability to keep being an effective player moving forward.
Kershaw, Clayton 75.8 + 0 = 75.8

Age 37
Avg HOF Season: 1.6
Min Career: 46.4
WAR HOF Career Pace: 49.3

McCutchen, Andrew 51.9 + 0.6 = 52.5

Age 39
Avg HOF Season: 0.9
Min Career: 49.3
WAR HOF Career Pace: 51.0

Scherzer, Max 72.5 + 0 = 72.5

Age 40+
Avg HOF Season: 0.7
Min Career: 50.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 51.5

Verlander, Justin 81.4 + 0.3 = 81.7

-----

BONUS LIST
Position players with no one in a younger season with more bWAR

Mike Trout (32) - 86.2
Mookie Betts (31) - 68.4
Francisco Lindor (30) - 43.9
Carlos Correa (29) - 42.1
Juan Soto (25) - 31.7
No one age 24 or under is in the top 100 of active position players.

Lots of interesting take aways for someone who doesn't pay attention to war regularly. Correa has a higher war then Ohtani at the same age.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by rms13

Lots of interesting take aways for someone who doesn't pay attention to war regularly. Correa has a higher war then Ohtani at the same age.

Shohei wasn't truly elite as a batter (at least for a DH) until last year and only had one elite season as a pitcher (2022, although 2021 was a nice season on 130 innings.) His 2021 MVP was more about being very good on both sides of the equation. But before 2021, his first three years were pretty meh, so he wasn't really accumulating WAR until he was 26. Correa had 3.4 fWAR at age 20 (and he's another guy that has about a 7 win fWAR/bWAR gap.) And FWIW, there's also an fWAR/bWAR gap on Ohtani's pitching. Their bWAR totals are Correa 42.1, Ohtani 37.7.

Ohtani will almost certainly finish with a higher career WAR total if he can ever pitch again, but Correa got started much earlier.

[rwperu34]

Two thoughts;

1) The bonus list is a way I look at things occasionally. I do it for hits and hr as well as wins.

2) Reid Detmers some how managed 0.2 WAR during this putrid stretch.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by tyrith

Shohei wasn't truly elite as a batter (at least for a DH) until last year and only had one elite season as a pitcher (2022, although 2021 was a nice season on 130 innings.) His 2021 MVP was more about being very good on both sides of the equation. But before 2021, his first three years were pretty meh, so he wasn't really accumulating WAR until he was 26. Correa had 3.4 fWAR at age 20 (and he's another guy that has about a 7 win fWAR/bWAR gap.) And FWIW, there's also an fWAR/bWAR gap on Ohtani's pitching. Their bWAR totals are Correa 42.1, Ohtani 37.7.

Ohtani will almost certainly finish with a higher career WAR total if he can ever pitch again, but Correa got started much earlier.

He had the 5th highest wRC+ and 3rd most HR in MLB in 2021.

Only 23 batters since 1903 with at least 5,000 career PA have a higher career RC+ higher than 150.

Only 16 batters between 2021 and 2023 had a season with a wRC+ higher than 150.

David Ortiz: 140 wRC+

Edgar Martinez: 147 wRC+

Ohtani's 2021 season was elite no matter how you slice it.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by rms13

Correa has a higher war then Ohtani at the same age.

That's only because Ohtani's seasons in Japan aren't counted. Add in his five seasons in Japan, and that's probably another 20-30 WAR.....

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by mfw13

That's only because Ohtani's seasons in Japan aren't counted. Add in his five seasons in Japan, and that's probably another 20-30 WAR.....

Sure, but for this purpose, you're right - they aren't counted. He would get into the Hall if he had to retire tomorrow, though, accounting for that.

[Bcr]

Now that the Negro Leagues stats are counted it's not a crazy assumption that NPB stats will be included someday as well. Regardless, between his time in both leagues and what he accomplished he just needs to play for 3 more seasons to be a lock.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by Bcr

Now that the Negro Leagues stats are counted it's not a crazy assumption that NPB stats will be included someday as well. Regardless, between his time in both leagues and what he accomplished he just needs to play for 3 more seasons to be a lock.

Hideki Matsui also becomes an interesting case....has 508 HR combined between the JPL and MLB.

[Cardsandcoffee]

I love this thread because it reminds me of how incredible Mike Trout was the last decade. Just an absolute beast. Hoping for a few more seasons of relative injury-free play are possible. On a winner.