Yordan Alvarez

[Chris P]

Originally Posted by BBases31

I wouldn't worry about that guy's projections. He famously had Alek Thomas pegged as some breakout star and was pumping him over Corbin in the Corbin thread. We know how that turned out

Sucks that you talk crap about him, but he can't respond to you since you block him. Pretty coward thing to do. Im an pretty sure you twisted what he was saying about alek thomas anyways but that's what you do

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by Chris P

Sucks that you talk crap about him, but he can't respond to you since you block him. Pretty coward thing to do.

Ain't go no time for nonsense. You should probably start taking internet forums less seriously than you do

Im an pretty sure you twisted what he was saying about alek thomas anyways but that's what you do

Anyone can go look for themselves in the Corbin thread, you don't have to take my word for it.

[Chris P]

Originally Posted by BBases31

Ain't go no time for nonsense. You should probably start taking internet forums less seriously than you do



Anyone can go look for themselves in the Corbin thread, you don't have to take my word for it.

That's your lame insult for anyone that comes back at you. That's literally all you have. "You take the message board serious". "Go outside". You tell that to everyone here. Then everyone who's ever responded to anyone must take this forum serious. I don't take your word for it. And i don't have to do look through pages of that thread to know that.

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by Chris P

That's your lame insult for anyone that comes back at you. That's literally all you have. "You take the message board serious". "Go outside". You tell that to everyone here. Then everyone who's ever responded to anyone must take this forum serious.

Relax. Most don't, but some do.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by corndog

Alvarez family from a recent FB post.

What a great picture. He looks fit here and that's a good thing. I think people hold on to players built like Prince Fielder and AJ Reed and just believe big guys will age like that

[noaskiecards]

Picked up these two yordans today, red is 1 of 5
Both were packed pulled, guy wanted 160 on the pair, gave abiut 200 in trade value as looking to trade and buy less

No real yordan rookies, only one I saw was a sterling gold auto bgs 9 but the guy wanted 550 which is at least a couple hundred too high

Tarrytown show

[Bambino22]

Originally Posted by noaskiecards

Picked up these two yordans today, red is 1 of 5
Both were packed pulled, guy wanted 160 on the pair, gave abiut 200 in trade value as looking to trade and buy less

No real yordan rookies, only one I saw was a sterling gold auto bgs 9 but the guy wanted 550 which is at least a couple hundred too high

Tarrytown show

550 is way to much for Bowman Sterling Auto bgs9.

Congrats on new pick ups! I have a red of 2021 and love them.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by Chris P

Sucks that you talk crap about him, but he can't respond to you since you block him. Pretty coward thing to do. Im an pretty sure you twisted what he was saying about alek thomas anyways but that's what you do

I've got him blocked too, which is why I don't respond. Quick recap;

BBAses: Yordan is a DH, he'll never be hobby good because of that.
rwperu34: Defense doesn't matter.

Then in the Carroll thread;

BBases: Carroll is a stud because he's a CF.
rwperu34: Alek Thomas is a much better fielder than Carroll and will be the CF.
BBases: waaaah. waaah. waaah. How dare anybody say anything negative about my guy. waah. waaah.

Check the stats. Thomas started 3x as many games in CF as Carroll and when they were both in Thomas was the CF, including late in playoff games. He's simply a much better fielder. BTW, to anybody who had actually seen both of them and knows what to look for, it is/was obvious.

Now, lets' talk about his Yordan projection. He has been calling Yordan a bad investment for years...during a time when Yordan has been one of the single best investments out there. Of the big guns, only Carroll and Judge have been better. Not Soto. Not Tatis. Not Trout. Not Vlad. Not J-Rod. Not Witt. Not Acuna!!!!!!!!!

Let me be clear. Since BBases has been calling Yordan a bad investment, he's returned more than a guy who is coming off of a .330, 40 HR, 70 SB, year and won a unanimous MVP. And it's not close. Yordan is up while Acuna is down >50%.

You see, BBases just spouts nonsense with nothing to back it up. I've actually put in the work to know what I'm talking about, because I make big bets on these guys. I need to be right or I'll go broke. Yordan has been a gold mine for me!...despite a market that has plopped 60-75% since I started buying.

[Biohazarddfl]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

I've got him blocked too, which is why I don't respond. Quick recap;



BBAses: Yordan is a DH, he'll never be hobby good because of that.

rwperu34: Defense doesn't matter.



Then in the Carroll thread;



BBases: Carroll is a stud because he's a CF.

rwperu34: Alek Thomas is a much better fielder than Carroll and will be the CF.

BBases: waaaah. waaah. waaah. How dare anybody say anything negative about my guy. waah. waaah.



Check the stats. Thomas started 3x as many games in CF as Carroll and when they were both in Thomas was the CF, including late in playoff games. He's simply a much better fielder. BTW, to anybody who had actually seen both of them and knows what to look for, it is/was obvious.



Now, lets' talk about his Yordan projection. He has been calling Yordan a bad investment for years...during a time when Yordan has been one of the single best investments out there. Of the big guns, only Carroll and Judge have been better. Not Soto. Not Tatis. Not Trout. Not Vlad. Not J-Rod. Not Witt. Not Acuna!!!!!!!!!



Let me be clear. Since BBases has been calling Yordan a bad investment, he's returned more than a guy who is coming off of a .330, 40 HR, 70 SB, year and won a unanimous MVP. And it's not close. Yordan is up while Acuna is down >50%.



You see, BBases just spouts nonsense with nothing to back it up. I've actually put in the work to know what I'm talking about, because I make big bets on these guys. I need to be right or I'll go broke. Yordan has been a gold mine for me!...despite a market that has plopped 60-75% since I started buying.

Hey, I don't follow the Carroll thread. Did he ever post any pics of Carroll cards that he owned or just talk endlessly about him? Thanks in advance!

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[pewe]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

His BA projection is too low. Like even lower than I would have expected, and you know how conservative I am with BA. I'm pretty sure Steamer (and ZiPS for certain) uses batted ball data as part of their projection. Carroll didn't fare too well (among the studs) in that department.

The other issue (and this one is real) is we're talking about a mid 20s HR projection here. The top guys (call it top 12) are all in the mid 30s. The Secret Sauce digs the long ball just as much as chicks.

Well... I guess relative to this year the BA is really just a function of deterministic outcomes (HR and SO) and probability outcomes BABIP.

Any reasons you think any of those were inflated this year relative to what he'd likely put up (i.e., if he regresses to mean)?

This is what I looked at.

HR - seems reasonable: Corbin's xHR was a couple less than actual, although he plays in a ballpark that is easier to hit HR, and those extra came from there. AND! He could actually hit more if he brings his launch angle up more (he is at 11' now). So hitting ~25 didn't seem too weird, and probable for a few seasons. Streamer seems to agree (giving him 26 next year).

SO - seems reasonable (could improve): SwSt % x 2 is a rough guess at SO %. And he's running in the 8-9% range right now. So his current 19.4% SO rate doesn't seem too out of expectations. Checking his splits, his weakness this year was with 2-outs, where he seemed to press... if he smooths his plate discipline to include those higher pressure 2-out scenarios, he'd actually improve.

BABIP - seems reasonable (will be the bigger part of variance, I think): his speed allows him to beat out a few extra infield hits than normal. He hits a lot of burner/flare type hits that have the highest xBABIP, and he's likely to continue to deliver this. In the minors he ran very high BABIP.

If you take all those together, his 2023 BA wasn't delivered due to some unusual luck. And he probably runs maybe a year BA range expectation of .270-295 type thing.

[Chris P]

Originally Posted by Biohazarddfl

Hey, I don't follow the Carroll thread. Did he ever post any pics of Carroll cards that he owned or just talk endlessly about him? Thanks in advance!

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Im pretty sure with Carroll he admitted he had zero Carroll cards

[Biohazarddfl]

Originally Posted by Chris P

Im pretty sure with Carroll he admitted he had zero Carroll cards

Bahaha. It gets better and better.

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[mfw13]

The player Alvarez reminds me the most of is Willie McCovey, with a nod to David Ortiz.

If he can average 30-35 HR a year for the next ten years, he'll be around 450 HR at age 37, with a decent shot at the 500 HR-club.

And he already has three WS appearance, a WS ring, a ALCS MVP (and would have won another this year if the Astros had won the ALCS), and a career .949 postseason OPS.

So he's clearly on a HOF track....

[JRX]

Originally Posted by mfw13

The player Alvarez reminds me the most of is Willie McCovey, with a nod to David Ortiz.

If he can average 30-35 HR a year for the next ten years, he'll be around 450 HR at age 37, with a decent shot at the 500 HR-club.

And he already has three WS appearance, a WS ring, a ALCS MVP (and would have won another this year if the Astros had won the ALCS), and a career .949 postseason OPS.

So he's clearly on a HOF track....

Everyone is on a hof track if they hit 35 hr a year for 10 years.

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[BBases31]

Originally Posted by mfw13

If he can average 30-35 HR a year for the next ten years, he'll be around 450 HR at age 37, with a decent shot at the 500 HR-club.

He can't stay healthy in his mid 20s what makes you expect him to stay healthy every year for the next 10

Originally Posted by Chris P

Im pretty sure with Carroll he admitted he had zero Carroll cards

Always said I didn't buy any Corbin, just a fan of his

[BGeezy]

Originally Posted by Chris P

That's your lame insult for anyone that comes back at you. That's literally all you have. "You take the message board serious". "Go outside". You tell that to everyone here. Then everyone who's ever responded to anyone must take this forum serious. I don't take your word for it. And i don't have to do look through pages of that thread to know that.

I have BBases blocked, so I only see his posts when someone else quotes him. Normally I find this slightly annoying, but in this case I'm reminded of this What We Do in the Shadows clip. This is totally him.

https://youtu.be/MGZS3yv2Q1A?si=p8Vkrh7gwsoH9Mwt

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by BGeezy

I have BBases blocked, so I only see his posts when someone else quotes him. Normally I find this slightly annoying, but in this case I'm reminded of this What We Do in the Shadows clip. This is totally him.

https://youtu.be/MGZS3yv2Q1A?si=p8Vkrh7gwsoH9Mwt

Ha! I love that show, and yes, it all makes sense now! BBases31 is an Energy Vampire!

[BGeezy]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

Ha! I love that show, and yes, it all makes sense now! BBases31 is an Energy Vampire!

It's such an underrated show.

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by BGeezy

I have BBases blocked, so I only see his posts when someone else quotes him.

That's a lie, I know you still read my posts lol

[Bambino22]

Few fun comments:
- Everything rwperu said I'm in agreement with. Yordan is way ahead of Soto cards on value from purchase on my 2020 - 2022 purchases.
- Yordan is far from a gold mine for me on what I price my cards value from where I bought. Maybe I'm even in the down market, not sure. But that's because there is skill in what to buy, how to buy, when to sell to maximize value..... that I ignore. I've maximized my collection but not $$$ value if that makes sense.
- BGeezy posted a very funny video.
- I have Yordan averaging over 35hrs per year even with some injuries. Here is my analysis:

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by Biohazarddfl

Hey, I don't follow the Carroll thread. Did he ever post any pics of Carroll cards that he owned or just talk endlessly about him? Thanks in advance!

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I definitely spent more on Carroll than he did even while I was pointing out his flawed defense....because as you know, I don't pay for defense.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by pewe

Well... I guess relative to this year the BA is really just a function of deterministic outcomes (HR and SO) and probability outcomes BABIP.

Any reasons you think any of those were inflated this year relative to what he'd likely put up (i.e., if he regresses to mean)?

This is what I looked at.

HR - seems reasonable: Corbin's xHR was a couple less than actual, although he plays in a ballpark that is easier to hit HR, and those extra came from there. AND! He could actually hit more if he brings his launch angle up more (he is at 11' now). So hitting ~25 didn't seem too weird, and probable for a few seasons. Streamer seems to agree (giving him 26 next year).

SO - seems reasonable (could improve): SwSt % x 2 is a rough guess at SO %. And he's running in the 8-9% range right now. So his current 19.4% SO rate doesn't seem too out of expectations. Checking his splits, his weakness this year was with 2-outs, where he seemed to press... if he smooths his plate discipline to include those higher pressure 2-out scenarios, he'd actually improve.

BABIP - seems reasonable (will be the bigger part of variance, I think): his speed allows him to beat out a few extra infield hits than normal. He hits a lot of burner/flare type hits that have the highest xBABIP, and he's likely to continue to deliver this. In the minors he ran very high BABIP.

If you take all those together, his 2023 BA wasn't delivered due to some unusual luck. And he probably runs maybe a year BA range expectation of .270-295 type thing.

Aside from your range being too narrow, I agree with you're entire assessment. Steamer has him at .273, which seems too low. His xBA was .269 last year and is .261 for his career, so I think that is what's dragging his projection down. The speed is real though (you are welcome, sincerely, Captain Obvious), so I expect more like .280-.285...basically exactly as you imply.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Aside from your range being too narrow, I agree with you're entire assessment. Steamer has him at .273, which seems too low. His xBA was .269 last year and is .261 for his career, so I think that is what's dragging his projection down. The speed is real though (you are welcome, sincerely, Captain Obvious), so I expect more like .280-.285...basically exactly as you imply.

Woo woo! High fives all around!


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[pewe]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Aside from your range being too narrow, I agree with you're entire assessment. Steamer has him at .273, which seems too low. His xBA was .269 last year and is .261 for his career, so I think that is what's dragging his projection down. The speed is real though (you are welcome, sincerely, Captain Obvious), so I expect more like .280-.285...basically exactly as you imply.

BTW I’m not sure if Steamer has fully adjusted for the shift, yet… checking his hit distribution on Baseballsavant, Carroll’s success appears to be partially from the hole left open between SS and 2B (and 2B and 1B) that would have been closed otherwise. Appears to have gotten a cluster of a dozen or so hits there - a number consistent with the deviation relative to xBA.





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[BGeezy]

Originally Posted by pewe

BTW I’m not sure if Steamer has fully adjusted for the shift, yet… checking his hit distribution on Baseballsavant, Carroll’s success appears to be partially from the hole left open between SS and 2B (and 2B and 1B) that would have been closed otherwise. Appears to have gotten a cluster of a dozen or so hits there - a number consistent with the deviation relative to xBA.





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