HOF Pace Tracker

[Skipscards]

There are plenty of players with Yordan's body type who have aged just fine. The most common path for a guy like him is to start in the OF and eventually migrate to 1st base or DH. I think y'all are overblowing the injury thing. 1B/DH types don't get injured a lot relative to other positions. I think his long term health will likely be fine.

Of course, there are plenty of players types who don't age well but Yordan isn't fat. He's tall. He's built more like Paul Goldschmidt, Carlos Delagado, Fred McGriff, Willie McCovey, etc. He does hit homers at a prolific rate with a high batting average. That combination tends to age well. I'd put his ceiling in the McCovey range and his floor in the Magglio Ordonez range and if I were wagering, I'd probably expect him to end up closer to Willie than Magglio.

[ironfireman]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

As for Yordan not being ahead of the curve, I suppose you can believe what you want but the numbers say he currently is.

According to fangraphs Yordan ranks 241st in career WAR after his age 26 season. I think we can agree that Yordan probably won't get to the HOF based on WAR and probably won't need to. He is 90th in career homeruns at age 26.

Where Yordan really shines though is in wRC+. He ranks 21st at 166 (minimum 1,000 PAs) If you tweak the minimum PAs to hilight Yordan to 2,000 min (Yordan has 2,003 PA) he comes in 15th! What does stand out though is lots of great names have 2x the PA at the same age. So again, it comes down to whether or not Yordan can get enough PAs with his HOF worthy bat to get voted in.

What's the minimum? 10 yrs right? But more importantly what HOF have the fewest PAs. Kiner comes to mind. He only had 6,000 or so PAs before a back injury ended his career. He only got 1% or so of the vote in his 1st year on the ballot but the minumum wasnt in place and by his 15th yr he finally got in. Oliva too only had 6800 but took forever to comitee his way in. A bit more modern Kirby Puckett comes to mind. 7,200 PAs. Lost the vision in his eye and abrubtly retired. Still he was a 10x All-Star Gold Glove CF etc So I'd think Yordan would need close to 7k PAs to "qualify" in voters minds - as Yordan averaged 552PA per over the past 3 years that means another 9-10 years without serious injury or too much of a fall off of his bat.
Of course MVP All-Star appearances will matter bigly. So far Yordan has 2 All- Star appearances and 1 top 10 MVP season. If he only reaches the PA, WAR, HR "minimums" he'll need 5 more top MVP seasons & All-Star games and probally an MVP or at least a cherry on top 60 HR season or walk off world series homer etc.

Looking at all of this and thinking about it, what strikes me most is he is an elite bat but really early in his career. Maybe only 20-25% through hopefully. I want the big guy to succeed. He is a top 5 bat and IF he can put up another healthish 9-10 years without too much detoriation or major injury he'll be a Hall of Famer. I just worry that he's a bit behind his HOF age group in PAs and his body type and injury history don't fill me with confidence.

[rwperu34]

For non catchers and guys who didn't have special circumstances Larry Walker is at 8,000 PA. Edgar Martinez had 8600 PA (about the best comp for Yordan). Votto will be going in and he's about 8700 PA (a slightly better Edgar). Once you get to 9000 PA there are plenty of players.

[vinson24]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

For non catchers and guys who didn't have special circumstances Larry Walker is at 8,000 PA. Edgar Martinez had 8600 PA (about the best comp for Yordan). Votto will be going in and he's about 8700 PA (a slightly better Edgar). Once you get to 9000 PA there are plenty of players.

I think in the end Altuve and Verlander are the only ones from the current era of Astros that make the hall. Yordan just can’t stay healthy for a full season and it’s not going to get any easier for him

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by vinson24

I think in the end Altuve and Verlander are the only ones from the current era of Astros that make the hall. Yordan just can’t stay healthy for a full season and it’s not going to get any easier for him

I mean he's obviously an underdog, but the guys who make the hall typically look like Yordan does at this stage of his career vs a Trout or Griffey who were already locks.

One other indicator I use is Bill James similar players. In his top 10 throuh age 26 you've got McGriff and McCovey already in with Helton (got 72% this year and will likely go in next year), Votto (an eventual lock), and Goldy. That's five out of 10 that will be in or very close to in. That should give an idea of what type of track he's on.

[Silent George]

So if you’ve been wondering what I’ve been up to since I’ve been healthy again, it’s this:

https://youtu.be/3BdDrzTXC74?si=Zl2miq3UCD1lm3FY

I’m too exhausted to even talk about what went into this. If you have a short attention span, it’s not for you. If you love baseball history, with the help of AI, you’ll feel like you were transported back in time.

I’m taking the weekend off, and then Monday I start plowing through the tracker.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by vinson24

I think in the end Altuve and Verlander are the only ones from the current era of Astros that make the hall. Yordan just can’t stay healthy for a full season and it’s not going to get any easier for him

Actually, the opposite of this is true. It’s going to get a lot easier for him to stay healthy since he’ll eventually play 1b and DH.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by Silent George

So if you’ve been wondering what I’ve been up to since I’ve been healthy again, it’s this:

https://youtu.be/3BdDrzTXC74?si=Zl2miq3UCD1lm3FY

I’m too exhausted to even talk about what went into this. If you have a short attention span, it’s not for you. If you love baseball history, with the help of AI, you’ll feel like you were transported back in time.

I’m taking the weekend off, and then Monday I start plowing through the tracker.

That’s great! Thanks for sharing. Though, this needs it’s own thread. It’s that good. Really nice.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

There are plenty of players with Yordan's body type who have aged just fine. The most common path for a guy like him is to start in the OF and eventually migrate to 1st base or DH. I think y'all are overblowing the injury thing. 1B/DH types don't get injured a lot relative to other positions. I think his long term health will likely be fine.

He's had some issue pretty much every year. Even if it's not the sort of stuff that's going to ice him for an entire season (although he did lose the entire COVID season,) I just haven't seen a lot that makes me think he's ever going to play 150 games. If nothing else, his usage has to get babied - an off day every two weeks, at least - in a way that you don't usually see out of DH types of his skill level. It's 100% going to hurt his accumulation, he's going to be playing 80% as many games as his rivals.

[Silent George]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

That’s great! Thanks for sharing. Though, this needs it’s own thread. It’s that good. Really nice.

I appreciate that! Wasn’t live until today. You guys got the first official link. I suppose because 1934 custom cards were made for it I could justify a thread on here but…nah.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by tyrith

He's had some issue pretty much every year. Even if it's not the sort of stuff that's going to ice him for an entire season (although he did lose the entire COVID season,) I just haven't seen a lot that makes me think he's ever going to play 150 games. If nothing else, his usage has to get babied - an off day every two weeks, at least - in a way that you don't usually see out of DH types of his skill level. It's 100% going to hurt his accumulation, he's going to be playing 80% as many games as his rivals.

I'm not dismissing the possibility that he'll be injured a lot, but I really don't think it's overly relevant for a 26 year old. Here's Willie McCovey's Games played each season through age 26:

21- 52
22- 101
23- 106
24- 91
25- 152
26- 130

That's an average of 105 games per season. He turned out ok. There's others. David Ortiz missed a lot of games his first few seasons. I think he played even less than Yordan.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by Silent George

I appreciate that! Wasn’t live until today. You guys got the first official link. I suppose because 1934 custom cards were made for it I could justify a thread on here but…nah.

This is a Baseball Forum. It is absolutely appropriate.

[BabaORiley]

Originally Posted by Silent George

So if you’ve been wondering what I’ve been up to since I’ve been healthy again, it’s this:

https://youtu.be/3BdDrzTXC74?si=Zl2miq3UCD1lm3FY

I’m too exhausted to even talk about what went into this. If you have a short attention span, it’s not for you. If you love baseball history, with the help of AI, you’ll feel like you were transported back in time.

I’m taking the weekend off, and then Monday I start plowing through the tracker.

Fantastic, SG. Absolutely deserves its own thread.

[Silent George]

Originally Posted by BabaORiley

Fantastic, SG. Absolutely deserves its own thread.

Much appreciated. I have barely posted anything I've done here, because I don't want to run astray any sort of self-promotion rules, but if someone else wants to... ;-)

[Silent George]

It's begun.

I don't know how much I'll post here, it's pretty tiring doing both sites. We will see. But I thought I'd put this here first, probably won't go on my page for a day or two. Maybe I'll just make you guys aware here or something. I dunno, but... I'll put this here just to see if I've still "got it."

AGE 19 Tracked Career 0.0 WAR - 0.2 WAR
Floor Level Hall of Famer Year 0.2 WAR
Average Hall of Famer Year 0.2 WAR

Junior Caminero

2023: 0.1 WAR Career: 0.1 WAR

I suppose it doesn't look like it takes much to make the HOF tracker as a 19-year-old. All you have to do is have a positive WAR. And Junior Caminero, in his short, 7-game stint in the majors, managed to put up 0.1 WAR. So put the Hall of Fame on notice! He's marching in!

It might seem silly - but it's not silly. If you don't think it takes much to make the list as a 19-year-old, then you aren't considering how freaking hard it is to make the majors when you're that young? And also, how hard is it to have a positive WAR?

Here are the most recent position players to have a positive WAR in their age 19 season:

Juan Soto
Manny Machado
Bryce Harper
Mike Trout
B.J. Upton
Adrian Beltre
Edgar Renteria
Ivan Rodriguez
Ken Griffey Jr.
Gregg Jefferies
Junior Naboa

OK, we kind of went off a cliff there at the end. But the point still stands. These are your early potty trainers. These are the guys who were able to go out there and stand on a field with the big boys and not #@#@#@#@ themselves. It's a pretty remarkable feat.

And yeah, let's not get ahead of ourselves. We're talking about 0.1 WAR here. 0.1 WAR that he probably earned on the final day of the season when he went 2-6 with his 1st major league home run. I wouldn't call him a HOF lock yet.

Also, this was his age-19 season. But BARRRRRRELY. How old was he on July 1st? Why he was 19. Thus he was in his age 19 season! But his birthday is July 5th. So as far as people in their age 19 seasons go, he's the equivalent of that 108-year-old Buddhist monk I'm sure you've heard about.

There's also one more thing to put in context here: That is, did he earn his call-up?

In other words, would Caminero have made it to the big show this year, if Wander Franco wasn't caught playing in the little show?

Well, it's debatable. Like the Francisco Alvarez call-up from a year ago, there's no doubt Caminero was in the bigs in an attempt to catch lightning in a bottle, and the hope that maybe he could have been a surprise difference-maker for the playoff run of what was frankly a scuffling team by that point.

And if Wander Franco is around, he's not getting at-bats.

But earn it? Some guys get called up because of pedigree. It's their time. They are supposed to be good. Let's see what they can do. Not Caminero. It pretty clearly wasn't his time. Frankly, he's still years away from what you'd say his time is. The dude forced the issue in a major way.

He started his season in A+ ball and was insane. .356/.409/.685/1.094 with 11 homers, 9 doubles, and 3 triples in just 146 at-bats.

He was promoted to AA and was insane there as well - 81 games with 20 homers, a .309 avg, and a .921 OPS. I mean, there's a reason the Rays tried him out. That is serious freaking power, and he's coupled it with low K rates - only 17.1% in AA!

Maybe you hadn't heard of him before now. At the end of 2022, he was the Rays 30th ranked prospect. At the end of 2023, he is MLB's 6th-ranked prospect. This is what a hackneyed writer would call a meteoric rise. And friends, I would never stoop that low. So I'll tell you his rise has been like a rocket ship!

HOF? I wouldn't vote for him just yet. But he's on the tracker already, and believe you me, he will be tracked. Even if he falls off, I'll be investing a few precious seconds keeping an eye on this kid.

Because, while the narrative is that his jump to the bigs was too soon - that he got the call only out of desperate necessity after losing Wander Franco - might I put the idea out there that we got this all wrong? And the only reason he wasn't in Tampa earlier wasn't because they weren't scared of exposing someone so young to MLB curveballs, but instead didn't want to expose someone so young to Wander's wandering eyes? You never know. Perhaps the Rays leaked the news to the authorities in order to have the excuse to call up their stud youngster.

Nah, can't be it. They didn't call him up immediately to help out, even though the Rays still had 14 series to get through without Franco. (Don't believe me? Google: Wander Franco 14.)

Either way, I suspect if I never write about Junior Caminero again, it will be less about his abilities, and more about my love of chili cheese fries, and my laziness to find a cardiologist. His inclusion may seem a bit…ridiculous, but by 2028 it might look obvious.

[rwperu34]

I came to a different conclusion regarding Caminero. I had him at #1 overall on my prospect list and a prospect of a similar caliber to Wander Franco himself. Only Vlad Jr. graded out better offensively in the last 20 years or so, so IMO, he was ready.

The most interesting thing to me about the prospects on your list is actually the one's who don't make it. I count three prospects that made your list and another five who were called up AND ranked ahead of the lowest ranked still-a-prospect that did make your list; Noelvi Marte. I suspect that a few tenths of WAR is the differentiator.

[pezzicle]

as a CLE fan, Caminero conversations huuuuuuuurt

[ironfireman]

SG ya still got it! Insightful, informative & some good belly laughs. Also, I intend to make it around to your old Cards Worls Series vid - just tooo damn much baseball to get to right now! Might be a great offseason fix!
Keep up the good work!

[Archangel1775]

Always great to update my potential HOF list. I'm still amazed of the amount of players that are HOF locks(PEDs/personal issues aside) from 2000-2010 utilizing their rookie year. A handful of players that are borderline and will eventually make it but still a short list. Makes me wonder who is falling off from the 10-year span 2011-2021. Appreciate it Silent George!

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

Always great to update my potential HOF list. I'm still amazed of the amount of players that are HOF locks(PEDs/personal issues aside) from 2000-2010 utilizing their rookie year. A handful of players that are borderline and will eventually make it but still a short list. Makes me wonder who is falling off from the 10-year span 2011-2021. Appreciate it Silent George!

I've been noting for a decade how poorly the position prospects from that era performed. Between Pujols and Trout you've basically got Miggy Cabrera and...? The elite guys either flamed out early or didn't get there at all. It all changed with Trout/Harper/Machado in 2012. Since then there has been a deluge of elite young talent entering the league. I think the 2012-2019 era will be seen as a golden era for position players once it's all said and done, even after some guys fizzle out short of expectations.

[NYBBFAN]

There were a lot of strong starts for 2000s guys, but aside from the names you mentioned above, none became stars.

Delmon Young
David Wright (good not great)
Nick Johnson
Rocco Baldelli
Troy Tulowitzki
Corey Patterson

I’m sure I’ll get some heat from Mets fans for mentioning Wright in the same breath as these guys. 1700 hits and 250 HRs just ain’t superstardom. If he didn’t play in New York, he would have been even less relevant.

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by NYBBFAN

There were a lot of strong starts for 2000s guys, but aside from the names you mentioned above, none became stars.

Delmon Young
David Wright (good not great)
Nick Johnson
Rocco Baldelli
Troy Tulowitzki
Corey Patterson

I’m sure I’ll get some heat from Mets fans for mentioning Wright in the same breath as these guys. 1700 hits and 250 HRs just ain’t superstardom. If he didn’t play in New York, he would have been even less relevant.

2002 BC drove much more hype than the player’s on-field performances.

Out-of-control prospectors (is there any other kind? ) would spend all their time saying that half of the prospects in that set were 100% HOF-bound locks

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

2002 BC drove much more hype than the player’s on-field performances.

Out-of-control prospectors (is there any other kind? ) would spend all their time saying that half of the prospects in that set were 100% HOF-bound locks

Fast forward and there is practically no difference particularly with this 2023 rookie class. You're either overhyped or a future hall of famer. There is no in-between. Respectable careers like Wrigjt, Rollins and Nomar are "hype"

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

Fast forward and there is practically no difference particularly with this 2023 rookie class. You're either overhyped or a future hall of famer. There is no in-between. Respectable careers like Wrigjt, Rollins and Nomar are "hype"

Yes because focused hype produces the greatest profit which is what prospecting is about.

But what was interesting is that 2002 was the first BC Draft product. Prospectors jumped all over this because nobody really knew what this meant long-term, so prospectors felt obligated/had an excuse to hype it even further

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by NYBBFAN

There were a lot of strong starts for 2000s guys, but aside from the names you mentioned above, none became stars.

Delmon Young
David Wright (good not great)
Nick Johnson
Rocco Baldelli
Troy Tulowitzki
Corey Patterson

I’m sure I’ll get some heat from Mets fans for mentioning Wright in the same breath as these guys. 1700 hits and 250 HRs just ain’t superstardom. If he didn’t play in New York, he would have been even less relevant.

David Wright was a young star, in every sense of the word. From age 22-25 his average season was .311/29/112/22. Basically prime Kyle Tucker. His main problem was I picked him up for my fantasy team heading into his age 26 season. Instead of taking a leap forward in his 26-30 prime, he fizzled and was done as a productive player by age 31.

That was commonplace for the top guys during those years. They started a little bit later, didn't burn quite as bright, and fizzled a little earlier than normal.