Let’s see one of your INVESTMENT Wax Boxes - I’ll start....

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by ScooterD

Special request - show me something rare from the junk wax era (84ish - 95ish). I know that rare sealed stuff with unique stories is out there

Anyone? ^

[Bunny Hop]

It isn't rare but it is sealed. Just waiting for the right time to open it with friends.

[JIMG28]

Originally Posted by ScooterD

Special request - show me something rare from the junk wax era (84ish - 95ish). I know that rare sealed stuff with unique stories is out there

Not mine. 1989 Topps Heads Up Test Issue Box

[JoinerCP]

Who is storing modern day wax? As I've continued doing research, it looks like a few different things have played out over the past 3 years.

1. The market was saturated with buyers during pandemic, many retreated after
2. Topps/Fanatics has created many new lines of cards to further muddy the waters. Whereas there used to be a few flagships, now there are many 'niche' lines introduced and very few are distinct. There appears to be a lack of cohesion/creative vision for why each of these lines exist.
3. Many people who bought into the Wax game in 2019-2020 thought they were absolutely brilliant while offloading in 2021-2022. Now the hobby is in correction territory and everyone is uncertain what the market holds moving into the future.

Is any of this incorrect? Or can someone else add details that I may've overlooked?

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by JoinerCP

Who is storing modern day wax? As I've continued doing research, it looks like a few different things have played out over the past 3 years.

1. The market was saturated with buyers during pandemic, many retreated after
2. Topps/Fanatics has created many new lines of cards to further muddy the waters. Whereas there used to be a few flagships, now there are many 'niche' lines introduced and very few are distinct. There appears to be a lack of cohesion/creative vision for why each of these lines exist.
3. Many people who bought into the Wax game in 2019-2020 thought they were absolutely brilliant while offloading in 2021-2022. Now the hobby is in correction territory and everyone is uncertain what the market holds moving into the future.

Is any of this incorrect? Or can someone else add details that I may've overlooked?

I'm storing, flipping and ripping modern wax.

1) I'm storing modern wax acquired via recycled profits.

2) I'm flipping modern wax and making out good with the vast majority of them. I'm not flipping every release, only picking and choosing what products seem to offer great values. I've missed out on additional gains by passing on select wax that have unexpectedly performed well (e.g., Bob Ross collaboration).

3) I'm ripping modern wax because I love to rip. Definitely not a money-maker, it eats into my gains but you can't put a price on fun rips. I avoid ripping massively overpriced wax too.

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by JoinerCP

Who is storing modern day wax? As I've continued doing research, it looks like a few different things have played out over the past 3 years.

1. The market was saturated with buyers during pandemic, many retreated after
2. Topps/Fanatics has created many new lines of cards to further muddy the waters. Whereas there used to be a few flagships, now there are many 'niche' lines introduced and very few are distinct. There appears to be a lack of cohesion/creative vision for why each of these lines exist.
3. Many people who bought into the Wax game in 2019-2020 thought they were absolutely brilliant while offloading in 2021-2022. Now the hobby is in correction territory and everyone is uncertain what the market holds moving into the future.

Is any of this incorrect? Or can someone else add details that I may've overlooked?

It’s a really good question- I am storing modern wax, but in very isolated circumstances. Let’s say there are 20 Products for each Sport now. I collect 5 Sports, so every year ( now-ish ) there are 100 new releases. No matter what you read, think, or assume - there are going to be 5% ( 5 Boxes ) that turn out to be long term appreciation machines with winner stamped all over their shrink wrap 5-8 years from now.

The challenge is ( which I love ) - try to figure out which will be the 5%, and buy mostly/only those in quantity. EXTREMELY challenging to do - which is why I’m up to the task! ( 35 years collecting experience- FYI )

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by cardsin47

I collect 5 Sports, so every year ( now-ish ) there are 100 new releases. No matter what you read, think, or assume - there are going to be 5% ( 5 Boxes ) that turn out to be long term appreciation machines with winner stamped all over their shrink wrap 5-8 years from now.

The challenge is ( which I love ) - try to figure out which will be the 5%, and buy only those in quantity. EXTREMELY challenging to do - which is why I’m up to the challenge!

Can you name 1 NBA or NFL release from 2021 onwards that you think will appreciate from release price?

[cardsin47]

nice try ^ ….

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by cardsin47

nice try ^ ….

I take it that’s a no? If you don’t want to give away any already secrets can you name 1 that has appreciated since 2021?

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by cardsin47

nice try ^ ….

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

I take it that’s a no? If you don’t want to give away any already secrets can you name 1 that has appreciated since 2021?

cardsin47 doesn't do a lot of basketball or football (though he has some basketball/football wax). I used to do a lot of basketball wax and have made some decent gains on a couple of 2021 or newer products so I'll share a couple of examples on our (cardsin47 and my) behalf.

I made $549.22 profit on a hobby case of 2021-22 Panini Recon Basketball. Purchased for $2100. Flipped for $2700 at the start of the year.

I made a good amount of profit (~$1500) on 2021-22 Panini Photogenic Basketball. Split a hobby case with Spaceman for (7 boxes each for $1300). I ripped 1 and flipped 6 (~$425 per).

Baseball is much easier with a lower cost of entry though (less risk).

[JoinerCP]

Originally Posted by cardsin47

It’s a really good question- I am storing modern wax, but in very isolated circumstances. Let’s say there are 20 Products for each Sport now. I collect 5 Sports, so every year ( now-ish ) there are 100 new releases. No matter what you read, think, or assume - there are going to be 5% ( 5 Boxes ) that turn out to be long term appreciation machines with winner stamped all over their shrink wrap 5-8 years from now.

The challenge is ( which I love ) - try to figure out which will be the 5%, and buy mostly/only those in quantity. EXTREMELY challenging to do - which is why I’m up to the task! ( 35 years collecting experience- FYI )

Thanks for the reply, I appreciate it.

So we have to find a way to ascribe value to a product. A strong rookie class, desirable inserts, reduced or no redemptions. This can be a niche offering, mid-upper range products, etc.

If we do this every year across a range of products, we're going to tie-up a lot of capital but if you hit a year with generational talents or surging players the value increases dramatically. Then it's a matter of offloading while the market is elevated based on recent performances....or......you just hold as long as possible with the understanding that every year will result in less inventory, greater scarcity and higher value. Day trading vs value investing.

There are some simple calculations that can be made to see where the break even is and where profits could grow exponentially.

What do you guys use to track prices over time? (For individual cards and for sealed wax)

[jmsodpc]

1988 basketball...kinda rare

[dantheman514]

Originally Posted by JoinerCP

Who is storing modern day wax? As I've continued doing research, it looks like a few different things have played out over the past 3 years.

1. The market was saturated with buyers during pandemic, many retreated after
2. Topps/Fanatics has created many new lines of cards to further muddy the waters. Whereas there used to be a few flagships, now there are many 'niche' lines introduced and very few are distinct. There appears to be a lack of cohesion/creative vision for why each of these lines exist.
3. Many people who bought into the Wax game in 2019-2020 thought they were absolutely brilliant while offloading in 2021-2022. Now the hobby is in correction territory and everyone is uncertain what the market holds moving into the future.

Is any of this incorrect? Or can someone else add details that I may've overlooked?

I think the biggest change over the last five years is the exponential rise in the initial cost of sealed boxes. This increases the amount of money that you need to tie up to hold, and it obviously increases the risk. There used to be ample opportunity to buy low initially and quickly flip for a profit or hold for a bigger profit. The manufacturers and big resellers have closed that loop hole in most cases. There are some winners once in a while like 2022 Logofractor and the recent Bob Ross release.

As mentioned above, baseball buy-in is much lower, so the risk is lowered a bit. However, I imagine that Fanatics will continue to raise prices on products like they have done now with almost all sapphire products. As a point of reference, my first sapphire purchase was 2019 Bowman Draft Sapphire at $35/box. At those prices you could almost do no wrong whether flipped, held or ripped. At those prices, even a crappy box wouldn't hurt as much because of the low buy-in. Now sapphire boxes start at what, $200? Things have certainly changed.

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by dantheman514

I think the biggest change over the last five years is the exponential rise in the initial cost of sealed boxes.

Yep — it used to be, a box could be flipped by 3 or 4 different people, each making a little something, before final full secondary max pricing was reached. With the Topps and Panini keeping all that now at the point of sale for themselves— that number of possibly people flipping is down to either 0 or 1.

[JoinerCP]

Originally Posted by dantheman514

I think the biggest change over the last five years is the exponential rise in the initial cost of sealed boxes. This increases the amount of money that you need to tie up to hold, and it obviously increases the risk. There used to be ample opportunity to buy low initially and quickly flip for a profit or hold for a bigger profit. The manufacturers and big resellers have closed that loop hole in most cases. There are some winners once in a while like 2022 Logofractor and the recent Bob Ross release.

As mentioned above, baseball buy-in is much lower, so the risk is lowered a bit. However, I imagine that Fanatics will continue to raise prices on products like they have done now with almost all sapphire products. As a point of reference, my first sapphire purchase was 2019 Bowman Draft Sapphire at $35/box. At those prices you could almost do no wrong whether flipped, held or ripped. At those prices, even a crappy box wouldn't hurt as much because of the low buy-in. Now sapphire boxes start at what, $200? Things have certainly changed.

Yeah, that's an astronomical increase. Obviously everything went up in price during/after COVID but we should've expected $35 -> $50. Or even $35-70.

I believe they are pricing plenty of people out of the market. I'm learning all about this for my kids because my oldest (9) really wants to build up a nice collection. I thought it'd be a fun activity for us and I always try to find a way to recoup costs to help offset the continued enjoyment.

I hate that empty feeling I get when I put up a big chunk of cash and nothing comes of it. I have a high sensitivity to negative emotion in that regard. I get the feeling that many on here don't have that same profile. I think the thrill of hunt drives them more than the aversion to negative emotion.

I'm afraid Fanatics will push us out of the market pretty quickly. We'll have fun in our first year assembling a collection and opening boxes but I don't think it's sustainable in it's current format.

The new ownership believes it's customers to be like addicts. No amount of price-hiking is enough to turn them away. I'm actually excited to follow this over the coming years/decades because I think they will have to pivot a lot.

Gimmicks only take you so far, then it comes down to perceived value and most collectors lament the current state from what I've seen. Flippers & Breakers represent a large swath of the current churn.

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by JoinerCP

I have a high sensitivity to negative emotion in that regard. I get the feeling that many on here don't have that same profile. I think the thrill of hunt drives them more than the aversion to negative emotion.

This is a normal psychology principle of pleasure and pain. People make decisions ( in part ) that will either bring them pleasure, or avoid pain —- whichever is the stronger driving force of the individual. With having spent decades in sales and sales training courses, this has come up constantly. It’s my experience the 2 types of decision makers are dead even - 50/50

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by JoinerCP

Yeah, that's an astronomical increase. Obviously everything went up in price during/after COVID but we should've expected $35 -> $50. Or even $35-70.

I believe they are pricing plenty of people out of the market. I'm learning all about this for my kids because my oldest (9) really wants to build up a nice collection. I thought it'd be a fun activity for us and I always try to find a way to recoup costs to help offset the continued enjoyment.

I hate that empty feeling I get when I put up a big chunk of cash and nothing comes of it. I have a high sensitivity to negative emotion in that regard. I get the feeling that many on here don't have that same profile. I think the thrill of hunt drives them more than the aversion to negative emotion.

I'm afraid Fanatics will push us out of the market pretty quickly. We'll have fun in our first year assembling a collection and opening boxes but I don't think it's sustainable in it's current format.

The new ownership believes it's customers to be like addicts. No amount of price-hiking is enough to turn them away. I'm actually excited to follow this over the coming years/decades because I think they will have to pivot a lot.

Gimmicks only take you so far, then it comes down to perceived value and most collectors lament the current state from what I've seen. Flippers & Breakers represent a large swath of the current churn.

You may need to make adjustments here and there but there'll always be opportunities.

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by jmsodpc

1988 basketball...kinda rare

Nice! Who’s inside potentially, that makes this Box desirable? Or is it the rarity of the Box itself ?

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by JoinerCP

Yeah, that's an astronomical increase. Obviously everything went up in price during/after COVID but we should've expected $35 -> $50. Or even $35-70.

I believe they are pricing plenty of people out of the market. I'm learning all about this for my kids because my oldest (9) really wants to build up a nice collection. I thought it'd be a fun activity for us and I always try to find a way to recoup costs to help offset the continued enjoyment.

I hate that empty feeling I get when I put up a big chunk of cash and nothing comes of it. I have a high sensitivity to negative emotion in that regard. I get the feeling that many on here don't have that same profile. I think the thrill of hunt drives them more than the aversion to negative emotion.

I'm afraid Fanatics will push us out of the market pretty quickly. We'll have fun in our first year assembling a collection and opening boxes but I don't think it's sustainable in it's current format.

The new ownership believes it's customers to be like addicts. No amount of price-hiking is enough to turn them away. I'm actually excited to follow this over the coming years/decades because I think they will have to pivot a lot.

Gimmicks only take you so far, then it comes down to perceived value and most collectors lament the current state from what I've seen. Flippers & Breakers represent a large swath of the current churn.

My concern for you joiner, is if trying to figure out the absolute best way to collect Wax is keeping you from the best part — FUN! I love collecting Wax- it’s a real joy for me, regardless of what other collectors would buy with the same funds I’m using —- I could honestly care less. I would hope that this is fun for you - or at least potentially?

[jmsodpc]

Originally Posted by cardsin47

Nice! Who’s inside potentially, that makes this Box desirable? Or is it the rarity of the Box itself ?

This 33-card set was produced in Spain by Fournier and showcases many of the NBA hottest stars. The cards were distributed exclusively in cello-wrapped factory-sealed complete sets. The cards measure approximately 2 1/8" by 3 7/16" and have rounded corners. The fronts feature borderless high glossy action player photos; in the white stripe below the picture, player statistics are given. The entire area of the card backs displays the NBA logo in red, white, and blue (indicating that the set was licensed by the NBA for distribution in Spain). The cards are numbered on the front in the upper left corner. The card backs were written in Spanish. The set features Danny Manning's first professional card in addition to an early Muggsy Bogues issue.

michael jordan card is usually the popular one.
image host

[Bunny Hop]

Originally Posted by jmsodpc

This 33-card set was produced in Spain by Fournier and showcases many of the NBA hottest stars. The cards were distributed exclusively in cello-wrapped factory-sealed complete sets. The cards measure approximately 2 1/8" by 3 7/16" and have rounded corners. The fronts feature borderless high glossy action player photos; in the white stripe below the picture, player statistics are given. The entire area of the card backs displays the NBA logo in red, white, and blue (indicating that the set was licensed by the NBA for distribution in Spain). The cards are numbered on the front in the upper left corner. The card backs were written in Spanish. The set features Danny Manning's first professional card in addition to an early Muggsy Bogues issue.

michael jordan card is usually the popular one.

Very cool.

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by jmsodpc

This 33-card set was produced in Spain by Fournier and showcases many of the NBA hottest stars. The cards were distributed exclusively in cello-wrapped factory-sealed complete sets. The cards measure approximately 2 1/8" by 3 7/16" and have rounded corners. The fronts feature borderless high glossy action player photos; in the white stripe below the picture, player statistics are given. The entire area of the card backs displays the NBA logo in red, white, and blue (indicating that the set was licensed by the NBA for distribution in Spain). The cards are numbered on the front in the upper left corner. The card backs were written in Spanish. The set features Danny Manning's first professional card in addition to an early Muggsy Bogues issue.

michael jordan card is usually the popular one.
image host

Very awesome!

[JoinerCP]

Originally Posted by cardsin47

My concern for you joiner, is if trying to figure out the absolute best way to collect Wax is keeping you from the best part — FUN! I love collecting Wax- it’s a real joy for me, regardless of what other collectors would buy with the same funds I’m using —- I could honestly care less. I would hope that this is fun for you - or at least potentially?

Fair point. I tend to go a little hard where the fun takes a backseat. I really enjoy finding my own angle in anything I do. Being successful or being proven right is fun. Being proven wrong is a chance to alter your system and try again. All of that is fun over time.

Having opened a lot of packs as a kid but nowhere near some of you, I think having kids will help me step back and enjoy as we move forward in the hobby.

Of course, the thread title is "Show me your investment wax boxes" not "show me all the fun you're having"

I can't view this as a true investment but it's been fun combing through the data, seeing how performance of certain items has trended. This is almost no different than picking single stocks when you're just a regular Joe who doesn't have a team of analysts pouring over data and assessing markets.

I've been on the good and bad ends of my picks:

• Grabbed Alibaba when Buffet/Munger were jumping on them. Had to watch 50% of that investment evaporate.
• Jumped on TSLA end of 2017, that's been an incredible performer and I haven't sold any. Smart people could've sold low, bought hi, etc, etc. I'm not that smart.

As you said, there are clues to what performs over time, what could be desirable but it all hinges on the performance of the class, health of key superstars and the bounce of the ball.

Some guys probably could create a true "Investment" portfolio out of this but not me. This has to be viewed as 'play money' because otherwise I'd be screaming at athletes every other night for their performances and the related demise of my family. I'll post pics when I have something worth posting.

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by JoinerCP

Of course, the thread title is "Show me your investment wax boxes" not "show me all the fun you're having"
.

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[dimer10]

Originally Posted by ScooterD

Special request - show me something rare from the junk wax era (84ish - 95ish). I know that rare sealed stuff with unique stories is out there

Not super rare, valuable, or in the best shape, but still a pretty fun $10 purchase from 15 years ago….


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