Rafael Devers

[seanbros55]

Originally Posted by pewe

Devers officially a mess again??? A lot of futile at bats and 3 K night… tons of swing and miss… ugh


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Our boy is streaky. The highs are ultra-high and the lows are league-average.

[1977 Cloth]

Ozzie Albies has had almost the identical numbers to Devers this year.

Devers career numbers are better, but not by much. Albies actually has a higher WAR which I know this group hates.

Their age is the same.

Who would you rather have on your team going forward? This is not a Troll question. This is a legitimate question to the people that probably know Devers best on this board.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by 1977 Cloth

Ozzie Albies has had almost the identical numbers to Devers this year.

Devers career numbers are better, but not by much. Albies actually has a higher WAR which I know this group hates.

Their age is the same.

Who would you rather have on your team going forward? This is not a Troll question. This is a legitimate question to the people that probably know Devers best on this board.

I'm not going to answer the question, but I am going to point out that back in 2018 Gleyber Torres BCA was 5x Albies and Devers even after adjusting for the Yankees. I said why not buy Albies or Devers, two guys with similar projections? I was told I didn't know anything and that Albies and Gleyber were only similar in their position and Gleyber was going to produce so much more WAR than Devers because of his position blah blah blah. Gleyber went on to spank 39 HR that year...and his prices stayed flat (in an up market)....while Devers and Albies advanced their price forward. Since then Gleyber has lost 90% of his value while Devers and Albies are up 2x or more.

[1977 Cloth]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

I'm not going to answer the question, but I am going to point out that back in 2018 Gleyber Torres BCA was 5x Albies and Devers even after adjusting for the Yankees. I said why not buy Albies or Devers, two guys with similar projections? I was told I didn't know anything and that Albies and Gleyber were only similar in their position and Gleyber was going to produce so much more WAR than Devers because of his position blah blah blah. Gleyber went on to spank 39 HR that year...and his prices stayed flat (in an up market)....while Devers and Albies advanced their price forward. Since then Gleyber has lost 90% of his value while Devers and Albies are up 2x or more.

I think that was my point. Folks here just think I troll Devers fans. Some know better, but the comp to Gleyber was spot on. I like the situation Albies is in better than Devers, but I think Devers has the higher ceiling.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by 1977 Cloth

I think that was my point. Folks here just think I troll Devers fans. Some know better, but the comp to Gleyber was spot on. I like the situation Albies is in better than Devers, but I think Devers has the higher ceiling.

I just checked the Steamer/600 projections. They've got Devers at 4.3 WAR, Albies at 3.5. Devers has been more consistently durable, so the spread is even wider.

Hobby wise, Devers is much, much better. More of Albies value comes from defense than Devers, and Devers has more power. Albies has almost matched Devers this year...an up year for Albies an a down year for Devers. The Red Sox won't stay down long and the Braves are at their absolute peak right now. Don't get me wrong. I like Albies. He's just not nearly as good as Devers for the Hobby.

[pewe]

Ugh… I’m still losing Devers auctions

I need a green sapphire auto for my rainbow and hoped that one just now would plug the hole… no luck!


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[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by pewe

Ugh… I’m still losing Devers auctions

I need a green sapphire auto for my rainbow and hoped that one just now would plug the hole… no luck!


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Bid higher!

[pewe]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

Bid higher!

I’m trying to have restraint


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[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by pewe

I’m trying to have restraint


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Sounds boring.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

Sounds boring.

Well… if you see my post in the Witt thread just now, you’ll see I bled some budget recently


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[yodastories]

Picked up this beauty recently!

[pewe]

Originally Posted by yodastories

Picked up this beauty recently!

Pretty!!!


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[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by yodastories

Picked up this beauty recently!

That’s beautiful.

[rwperu34]

I have done some perusing of stats and determined that Rafael Devers is awesome. What is it this time? I'm glad you asked.

Most likely to get to 3,000 hits in their career;

Tier 1
1) Manny Machado

Tier 2
2) Juan Soto
3) Rafael Devers

Tier 3
4) Freddie Freeman
5) Jose Altuve
6) Maybe some others. I was only looking at the top of each age cohort.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

I have done some perusing of stats and determined that Rafael Devers is awesome. What is it this time? I'm glad you asked.

Most likely to get to 3,000 hits in their career;

Tier 1
1) Manny Machado

Tier 2
2) Juan Soto
3) Rafael Devers

Tier 3
4) Freddie Freeman
5) Jose Altuve
6) Maybe some others. I was only looking at the top of each age cohort.

Average 150 hits a year until he’s 40?

He’ll need 550 PA / year and .270 BA over that time. Requires health, and a team willing to play him full time at DH for a long while?


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[girv]

Devers at almost 1000 hits before 27 makes him a really good HoF bet. Seems like his floor (assuming health) is 2500 hits.

Another guy not on your list is his BFF and former teammate, Xander Bogaerts. He's at 1580 and just hit 31, and is signed for 10 more years. Even last year in a "down" year, X had 170 hits. Just needs to average 140ish for remainder of contract to hit 3000. Disclaimer: he's a big PC guy for me lol

Originally Posted by rwperu34

I have done some perusing of
stats and determined that Rafael Devers is awesome. What is it this time? I'm glad you asked.

Most likely to get to 3,000 hits in their career;

Tier 1
1) Manny Machado

Tier 2
2) Juan Soto
3) Rafael Devers

Tier 3
4) Freddie Freeman
5) Jose Altuve
6) Maybe some others. I was only looking at the top of each age cohort.

[oddstuff]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

I have done some perusing of stats and determined that Rafael Devers is awesome. What is it this time? I'm glad you asked.

Most likely to get to 3,000 hits in their career;

Tier 1
1) Manny Machado

Tier 2
2) Juan Soto
3) Rafael Devers

Tier 3
4) Freddie Freeman
5) Jose Altuve
6) Maybe some others. I was only looking at the top of each age cohort.

I would take my chances with Acuna over the top 3 guys in a 3000 hits discussion.

Acuna is 152 hits behind Devers but a year younger. He's a year older than Soto and 1 hit behind him, but Acuna is trending upwards while Soto has trended down the past two season in San Diego. Acuna can average 190 hits (a reachable .306 batting average consisting of 190 hits over 620 ABs) over his next 6 season, his prime years, which gets him to his 2000th hit in his age 32 season, which puts him on par/ahead of Machado. His hero is fellow Venezuelan Miggy Cabrera so he has the drive to join Miggy in the 3000 hits club. Like all career stat discussion, the big unknown factor is health...but that applies to every single player and he showed last season he is over the knee injury.

[CP10]

I like Devers’ odds, but I will say - put Freeman in Tier 1 with Machado!


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[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by pewe

Average 150 hits a year until he’s 40?

He’ll need 550 PA / year and .270 BA over that time. Requires health, and a team willing to play him full time at DH for a long while?


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Health is the main thing. It would also help if he had a mid career breakout...similar to Freddie Freeman. Obviously if he could hit .280 or .290 the rest of the way it would help.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by girv

Devers at almost 1000 hits before 27 makes him a really good HoF bet. Seems like his floor (assuming health) is 2500 hits.

Another guy not on your list is his BFF and former teammate, Xander Bogaerts. He's at 1580 and just hit 31, and is signed for 10 more years. Even last year in a "down" year, X had 170 hits. Just needs to average 140ish for remainder of contract to hit 3000. Disclaimer: he's a big PC guy for me lol

I noticed Xander. He's probably in better shape than Devers, realistically. He was trumped my Machado though.

I'd say Lindor is in a similar boat, but maybe not quite as good as Xander. He doesn't have or get as many hits, but his glove might keep in a full time player longer.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by oddstuff

I would take my chances with Acuna over the top 3 guys in a 3000 hits discussion.

Acuna is 152 hits behind Devers but a year younger. He's a year older than Soto and 1 hit behind him, but Acuna is trending upwards while Soto has trended down the past two season in San Diego. Acuna can average 190 hits (a reachable .306 batting average consisting of 190 hits over 620 ABs) over his next 6 season, his prime years, which gets him to his 2000th hit in his age 32 season, which puts him on par/ahead of Machado. His hero is fellow Venezuelan Miggy Cabrera so he has the drive to join Miggy in the 3000 hits club. Like all career stat discussion, the big unknown factor is health...but that applies to every single player and he showed last season he is over the knee injury.

Acuna is another worth considering. I'll take under 190 hits a year on him though. I know he's coming off of a huge year, but batting average is by far the most volatile stat of all. His career average is .292. That would be closer to where I'd project him through his prime.

One thing that really helps Acuna relative to everybody else is the Braves are showing no signs of moving him from the leadoff position. Those extra 20-60 PA a season (vs #2-#4) can really add up over the years.

I'd put Vlad ahead of Acuna. He's only 50 hits back and a year younger. Despite the drop in production the last couple of years, I'd say the three year average is closer to his true talent.

[seanbros55]

SILVER SLUGGER!

[pewe]

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[pewe]

Originally Posted by seanbros55

SILVER SLUGGER!

Pretty impressive to win it in a down year for him


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[awz50]

Love to see it!