Rolling 2023 Bowman Chrome Autograph Checklist Thread

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by Hail2TheVictors

It’s crazy seeing the pick your player breaks (mainly on Fb). The pricing is flat out drunk.

Must be those passionate player collectors buying up those spots.

Maybe fanatics is forcing those guys to pay the higher prices to get into breaks, too, like how fanatics is forcing breakers to lose money on breaks with their price control tactics.

At least that was what I was told.

[scfdff]

Originally Posted by Hail2TheVictors

It’s crazy seeing the pick your player breaks (mainly on Fb). The pricing is flat out drunk.

Especially when you see the eBay prices for most of the players. Pricing is bizarre. People are losing boatloads of money and then setting sail again in the same boat

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[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by scfdff

Especially when you see the eBay prices for most of the players. Pricing is bizarre. People are losing boatloads of money and then setting sail again in the same boat

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Yet, box prices are “going up”.

What’s going on here?

[SupermanBrandon]

Breaks are struggling to fill?
Single prices aren't doing as expected?
Box prices are going up?

[hermanotarjeta]

If so many breakers are losing money on breaks now, how screwed will they be when the degenerate gamblers move on to the next hot product?

[cruiserdaddy7]

Where and where does it end is the real question. Fanatics has deep pockets and will price fix and sit on this stuff. People are going to continue to lose interest in newer stuff. I'm still having more fun buying sealed 80s and 90s stuff. I find I don't understand the hobby at all now when it comes to pricing and content. Its just so far out of place.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by cruiserdaddy7

Where and where does it end is the real question. Fanatics has deep pockets and will price fix and sit on this stuff. People are going to continue to lose interest in newer stuff. I'm still having more fun buying sealed 80s and 90s stuff. I find I don't understand the hobby at all now when it comes to pricing and content. Its just so far out of place.

You can only squeeze so many pallets of products into a warehouse. With 40 products a year just for MLB, you need to move them at some point in time.

It gets too expensive to safely store that much product after a while.

[theredmenace]

Best I can tell all the relics in 2023BC are of the "not any specific game, event or season" variety. Disappointing to see Topps go back to this bs after the 2023TC authentics.

[hermanotarjeta]

Hobby boxes down to $300 and $350 for HTA on auction sites. This is on day 4 of release.

I was told Fanatics maintained cost control of the product.

[bear0555]

Originally Posted by theredmenace

Best I can tell all the relics in 2023BC are of the "not any specific game, event or season" variety. Disappointing to see Topps go back to this bs after the 2023TC authentics.

Ever since 2006 Topps Sterling, I have not felt comfortable with Topps relic cards. Who knows what they are anymore.

[Grave252]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Hobby boxes down to $300 and $350 for HTA on auction sites. This is on day 4 of release.

I was told Fanatics maintained cost control of the product.

I'm curious, what is the crux of your thesis or point you've been trying to make? Every other post is you saying "I was told" and then offering up some counterpoint so you can be in the right, but I’m unsure what you are arguing for or against.

Feels like you think Fanatics can be defeated via end demand drying up, but it seems that it’s never going to dry up to the point of going back to the “old days”. There are too many degenerate gamblers in the space now to return to $200 hobby boxes for flagship products. The hobby is now a casino. The gamblers far outweigh the collectors.

I’m not calling you out by the way, just trying to understand the short of all the points you’ve been trying to make.

[WallyatJCCards]

Originally Posted by theredmenace

Best I can tell all the relics in 2023BC are of the "not any specific game, event or season" variety. Disappointing to see Topps go back to this bs after the 2023TC authentics.

. You are absolutely correct. If they put the MLB authentication logo on those big ole relics, it Shirley would make a huge difference in collectibility and value. They are the “home of the rookie card” either put on the MiLB logo with authentication or make the cards with the players rookie year jersey, ANY OLD JERSEY from ANY ROOKIE YEAR GAME. That would add huge value, in my not-really-important point of view…

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by Grave252

I'm curious, what is the crux of your thesis or point you've been trying to make? Every other post is you saying "I was told" and then offering up some counterpoint so you can be in the right, but I’m unsure what you are arguing for or against.

Feels like you think Fanatics can be defeated via end demand drying up, but it seems that it’s never going to dry up to the point of going back to the “old days”. There are too many degenerate gamblers in the space now to return to $200 hobby boxes for flagship products. The hobby is now a casino. The gamblers far outweigh the collectors.

I’m not calling you out by the way, just trying to understand the short of all the points you’ve been trying to make.

There seems to be conflicting trains of thought on how the big 3 and the market decides what to price products at initially upon release and what determines if those prices go up or down.

One line of thought is that Fanatics decides what to price a product at with some arbitrarily assigned or concocted "price" and the rest of the market needs to pay up to that price to participate, ie purchase, their products.

The other line of thought is that the market demand based on the highest bidder allows the big 3 to decide what to price the product at initially and later. The price estimate can be calculated based on what the entity who will pay highest initially is willing to bear - and that is the breakers, in my opinion. The other side of the argument is that breakers play NO role in helping fanatics decide their product pricing.

From there, prices should adjust based on bids by the highest paying entities, whom I still firmly believe are the breakers. Others do not believe breakers are the highest bidders and that individual entities are the ones who are paying the highest for product and thus supporting the Fanatics mandatory price.

Others believe that Fanatics will keep product at a certain price point regardless of demand, and force their customers, no matter who they are, to pay that established price in order to play. The thought, I believe, is based on the supposition that people will pay because they MUST participate and they have no choice.

I believe that fanatics will come down in price if that breaker demand disappears. Sure, not to pre-pandemic levels, but certainly the prices do not have to be as high as they are now IF the biggest customers for fanatics, the breakers, reduce their demand because a lot fewer people want to get in to breaks.

The other argument is that fanatics will never go down in price even if breakers didn't exist and that they would be willing to sit on product forever without budging. I don't believe that. I believe Fanatics wants to move product based on what the market will bear, and if they market is a lot smaller, product prices WILL come down.

[zakcollects]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

The other argument is that fanatics will never go down in price even if breakers didn't exist and that they would be willing to sit on product forever without budging. I don't believe that. I believe Fanatics wants to move product based on what the market will bear, and if they market is a lot smaller, product prices WILL come down.

One of the big things about modern businesses/corporations is it's no longer enough to be profitable or have a good business model. Shareholders and investors are always seeking year over year growth and companies are driven to get it by any means. Look no further than price gouging in the grocery world right now as an example of how prices are set not based on demand but as a means to extract as much profit as possible year over year.

Cards will be no different. They won't react quickly to decrease in demand as their goal currently will be profit growth to show their stakeholders. They'll raise prices and find as many ways as possible to fuel hype, gimmicks and whatever gets them any money. It's going to a take a steady string of decay for prices to go down, and if they do it's because there will be shakeups and CEO firings and adjustments and all sorts of other nonsense as soon as the graph isn't going upward.

All this to say: If product doesn't move the prices will go down of course, but they have no reason to let that happen without a long long fight of trying to squeeze every dollar out of whoever they can coax. Who knows what strategy they will adopt to do it too. My guess is desired singles going straight to auction instead of box sales. Imagine if they special print 10 bespoke Ethan Salas, Jasson Dominguez or Elly De La Cruz autos and put them up for auction. That's an easy many hundreds of thousands of dollars in today's prospecting world.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by zakcollects

One of the big things about modern businesses/corporations is it's no longer enough to be profitable or have a good business model. Shareholders and investors are always seeking year over year growth and companies are driven to get it by any means. Look no further than price gouging in the grocery world right now as an example of how prices are set not based on demand but as a means to extract as much profit as possible year over year.

Cards will be no different. They won't react quickly to decrease in demand as their goal currently will be profit growth to show their stakeholders. They'll raise prices and find as many ways as possible to fuel hype, gimmicks and whatever gets them any money. It's going to a take a steady string of decay for prices to go down, and if they do it's because there will be shakeups and CEO firings and adjustments and all sorts of other nonsense as soon as the graph isn't going upward.

All this to say: If product doesn't move the prices will go down of course, but they have no reason to let that happen without a long long fight of trying to squeeze every dollar out of whoever they can coax. Who knows what strategy they will adopt to do it too. My guess is desired singles going straight to auction instead of box sales. Imagine if they special print 10 bespoke Ethan Salas, Jasson Dominguez or Elly De La Cruz autos and put them up for auction. That's an easy many hundreds of thousands of dollars in today's prospecting world.

People need groceries, however, they don’t need sports cards.

And we’ve seen excess food products end up in the 99 cent stores.

Fanatics is counting on the breaking industry to sustain and grow. They aren’t catering towards collectors because the money isn’t there - it’s all about marketing towards their audience - the degenerate gambler, and they will push the breakers as far as their clientele will pay to play.

[theredmenace]

Fanatics has already squeezed LCS' with their store requirements directive back in June. I do kinda think their next target are non-affiliated breakers. If prices keep going up and demand dips, the middlemen are going to feel the pinch far before Fanatics. The goal is leave just enough meat on the bone and force the middlemen to find new avenues for profit. Fanatics literally owns the money printers. If they're smart they'll recognize that the Topps arms of the company isn't a casino, but a central bank.

[IronCladLou]

Spent $70 on a 3 box break. Ended up with a true gold Wuilfredo Antunez auto, a couple of invicta and a couple of numbered parallels.

Think it's time i stop there. The boxes were trash

[johnlocke36]

https://x.com/bdkleinman/status/1703...D8jNd5ESTITG6w

Here’s a new one from topps

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

https://x.com/bdkleinman/status/1703...D8jNd5ESTITG6w

Here’s a new one from topps

I love it!

[SupermanBrandon]

Came here to post that. Both pulled in the first week. Yeh breakers aren’t getting juiced boxes.


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[KhalDrogo]

Not sure why anyone trusts Fanatics to produce what they claim they are producing.

[Boredlawyer]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

There seems to be conflicting trains of thought on how the big 3 and the market decides what to price products at initially upon release and what determines if those prices go up or down.

One line of thought is that Fanatics decides what to price a product at with some arbitrarily assigned or concocted "price" and the rest of the market needs to pay up to that price to participate, ie purchase, their products.

The other line of thought is that the market demand based on the highest bidder allows the big 3 to decide what to price the product at initially and later. The price estimate can be calculated based on what the entity who will pay highest initially is willing to bear - and that is the breakers, in my opinion. The other side of the argument is that breakers play NO role in helping fanatics decide their product pricing.

From there, prices should adjust based on bids by the highest paying entities, whom I still firmly believe are the breakers. Others do not believe breakers are the highest bidders and that individual entities are the ones who are paying the highest for product and thus supporting the Fanatics mandatory price.

Others believe that Fanatics will keep product at a certain price point regardless of demand, and force their customers, no matter who they are, to pay that established price in order to play. The thought, I believe, is based on the supposition that people will pay because they MUST participate and they have no choice.

I believe that fanatics will come down in price if that breaker demand disappears. Sure, not to pre-pandemic levels, but certainly the prices do not have to be as high as they are now IF the biggest customers for fanatics, the breakers, reduce their demand because a lot fewer people want to get in to breaks.

The other argument is that fanatics will never go down in price even if breakers didn't exist and that they would be willing to sit on product forever without budging. I don't believe that. I believe Fanatics wants to move product based on what the market will bear, and if they market is a lot smaller, product prices WILL come down.

Have you considered teaching a macroecon class at your local community college? Everytime I see a message proselytizing over box break economics and Fanatics my eyes glaze over.

[daeve]

After just getting back from Canada and mulling it over all day, decided to open my 2 pre-order boxes, and did pretty well. First time I've bought hobby on release in probably 5 years.




None of these have hit ebay yet, but based on what an orange shimmer did on BIN/BO I did pretty darn well.

[RainCityShecks]

Congrats! You’ve done better than most folks with this years BC. Must have been cool seeing the red border then amazing seeing the name. Awesome card.


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[LVDan]

Originally Posted by daeve

After just getting back from Canada and mulling it over all day, decided to open my 2 pre-order boxes, and did pretty well. First time I've bought hobby on release in probably 5 years.




None of these have hit ebay yet, but based on what an orange shimmer did on BIN/BO I did pretty darn well.

That’s the kind of dopamine hit that could cost you in the future
Incredible pull my friend