Is Modern Basketball that dead?

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

I say that changes this season

Maybe for one of them.. possibly two...

But that still means that the majority get shut out (as well as Mahomes, Rodgers, Jackson, 49ers QB, and any of the others I didn't name)

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by msucollector4

I think part of what hurts basketball (and to an extent FB) is the way Panini structures their products. Most products don't have a set "lane"

Topps does a decent job of this:

Flagship (S1, S2, Update)- Cheap (relative) options to get the first look at some of the upcoming rookies with a release date before the season for S1.

Bowman (Various Sku's)- Prospects

Heritage, A&G, GQ- different designs, interesting inserts/variations, big for set builders

Topps Chrome- Rookie autos and chrome goodness (tacofractor not included)

Topps Finest- good mix of rookie and vet autos for a relatively affordable price point

Museum, Tribute, Dynasty, Transcendent, Sterling- For the high rolling ballers who want a chance at some truly beautiful cards.


Also there is something to be said for the fact that the two best rookie/prospect cards of most every modern player are the superfractors from Bowman and Topps Chrome, two relatively affordable products when they come out. Much easier for collectors to chase than a fake logoman auto out of Flawless

obviously there are some random products that Topps puts out that dont fit but they at least have most of the bases covered

Ideally, that's what the Prizm Black/Nebula 1 of 1s are.

[msucollector4]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Ideally, that's what the Prizm Black/Nebula 1 of 1s are.

While I agree, it doesnt seem like they took hold like the Supers have.

It will be interesting to see what 2025 looks like, what will the biggest card for those rookies?

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by msucollector4

While I agree, it doesnt seem like they took hold like the Supers have.

It will be interesting to see what 2025 looks like, what will the biggest card for those rookies?

I mean, a black 1/1 of a QB who's never won a Playoff Game sold for over $1,000,000.

The Giannis Black 1/1 Prizm sold for $1,168,500.

A Trae Young Nebula 1/1 sold for $400,000.

How much more do these have to do before they've taken hold?

[msink28]

Most of Panini's retail offerings are unimaginably terrible. Kind of ruins it after awhile. At least with Topps, you might have some fun, pull an auto, a numbered card, who knows.

[fabiani12333]

The basketball market shot up higher than the football and baseball markets. The stupid money and flipper types were more concentrated in the basketball market -- bro.

As others have said, the NFL market is all about QBs -- those are the most speculated in and invested in in terms of dollar amounts.

The baseball market has a higher floor but a lower ceiling. Therefore prices haven't gone as high, but there has been more price stability and consistency.

[JohnnyHatesJazz]

young stars that win drive prices guys c'mon now. except in baseball but even baseball can be an ebb and flow kind of deal...peaks and valleys.

football is riding that wave of being driven by young stars. In basketball....ja's an idiot, zion is made of glass and luka is on a bad team. Jokic is "old".

Things will change when Wemby's cards come out though. so much hype but he'll go by the way of luka if the spurs don't win in the first several years of his career.

[thesportslab]

Originally Posted by Leggo

Personally, I think the word over hyped is being overused. All these players that burned people in prices is just the hobby not understanding how the NBA works. For a 19 - 21 year old to be a part of a championship team, they can’t be THE guy at that age. Hell Lebron carried the Cavs at the age of 22 to an nba finals and I thought that was incredible at that age then got swept by a team far superior to them.

Most of these guys that have burned people are still in their low 20s. So to say over hyped to me is funny. Ant is freaking 21 still! Personally I think they are all buying opportunities (absent the overall price decline) since the hobby expectations and reality aren’t aligning.

Very accurate post. For similar reasons, I’m intrigued by Devin Booker, both on the court and with his card prices. Booker turns 27 this season as a core piece to a team with much talent. Granted, I’m not sure who will play D for the Suns but the offensive talent is a threat to contend. For comparison
ages of recent guys winning their 1st ring: Bron (27), Curry (27), Giannis (26), Jokic (28). I’ll gladly buy some dips on the 2018-2021 classes.

[Nomad]

NBA needs more matchups like this. And cards with this kind of shot. I mean I did this with simple screen captcha, think what Panini can do with their millions/



can someone here photoshop this onto a cool new design and school panini

plot twist: the team NBA investors win (Packman gets richer) because they have all the Dillon Brooks. and salty Celtics team collectors, though they never reach their coveted title, also win more or less.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by SoccerRCs

Yes to all. Especially yes to the bolded stuff. I mean seriously, the league is still trying to ride Lebron! It's ridiculous. They have Giannis, Jokic, Luka and they can't get past Lebron (or an aging Steph). When Lebron or Steph were 28, they were already mega stars, with tons of hype around them. The league has just tossed Giannis, Jokic and Luka on the trash heap. Figure out how to market more than just the major markets. My goodness. It's embarassing.

Also, like you said, these parallels are absolute dog crap. If you have a blue /49 but its across 10 years and 10 releases, that's 4,900 blue parallels to /49. Total barf. These things should be valued like base cards.

Lebron received the most votes for the 2023 All Star game -- 7.4 million vs the second-highest total of 6.7 million for Giannis.

Curry won the 2022 NBA finals and was given the series MVP. He scored 50 points in a game-7 win against the Kings in the first round of the 2023 playoffs. He isn't exactly over the hill.

Giannis had a movie made about his life after he won back-to-back MVPs and a championship.

Jokic has won two MVPs and a championship -- he's officially a face of the league.

[ninjacookies]

Damn.

Dia de muertos in this madrecabrona.

We at Dicky McWilliams' wake or sum?

[Nomad]

just realized that photo is of a new style high-speed eurostep...

lamello eat that dust

[MyckKabongo]

Lots of good reasons cited. Boils down to a few main factors IMHO.

1) Basketball went dumbest during the boom. Overpriced, Overgraded, Overprinted, every prospect to the moon, common RCs moving from the $5 box to 4 figures -- literally nearly every dumb thing in sports cards during the boom was dumbest of all in Basketball.

As a result there is an absolute malaise that hangs over the sport's card market. Basketball prospecting is D-E-A-D. I was active in that space prior to the boom and it was more more fun and easier than prospecting in other sports (huge factor in why it took off during the boom). It just sucks now. I've quit entirely in favor of other sports and I am positive I'm not alone.

Many other reasons for the malaise cited already in the thread that ring true to me.

The silly season also seemed to kill off a huge percentage of the "true" collector base in basketball whereas those guys seemed to hang on better in the other major sports.

2) The NBA has been in a funk since the bubble, whereas in the 2010s it had a really ascendant energy. There should have been way more excitement over the Giannis title (hail to the new king! type stuff) and it seemed to just land with a thud. Been like that ever since.

There was a window in the 2010s where millenial dudes were really into nerding out about the NBA. The Curry/Lebron/KD wars were epic, guys like prime Westbook were beloved, and the young players coming into the league seemed really exciting and fresh. Baseball was in a bit of a funk and it seemed like the concussion scandal might finally topple the NFL's hold as the most popular sport.

Since then the NFL has fully reasserted itself as the top dog and baseball(!) seems to be directionally doing very well with a bevy of young stars and Manfred's reforms actually working. The cultural cache seems to have withered for the NBA. Like Star Wars and Marvel (other huge Disney investments) it's still popular but the shine is clearly off and people are looking for something different in the 2020s.


---------

Someone mentioned the international market. This really deserves its own thread because you heard about it ALL THE TIME during the boom. When some of us saw the writing on the wall for BKB and pivoted to good old football and baseball because those markets are much healthier we got to hear a lot about how we were making a huge mistake because of the international market for BKB. Where is your international market now?

[GOATcards]

if you aren't basically aligned with my interest in basketball and collecting basketball kards, you're a philiistine

been stocking up on eye-catching top-19-NBA-legends, been "prospecting" some neat-looking Jokic stuff (Gold Team, Origins, etc.) and by volume of neat-looking cards I'm collecting him the most now next to MJ and Russell. (After that it would I guess be Magic and Larry...avatars coming pretty soon...and then GiannisStephTim...gonna be coming up with an aesthetically-best ranking of cards in my collection, that '19 Elite Chef is chef-kiss

I hear that Mahomes and Ohtani are probably kards to collect. Messi?

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by MyckKabongo

Lots of good reasons cited. Boils down to a few main factors IMHO.

1) Basketball went dumbest during the boom. Overpriced, Overgraded, Overprinted, every prospect to the moon, common RCs moving from the $5 box to 4 figures -- literally nearly every dumb thing in sports cards during the boom was dumbest of all in Basketball.

As a result there is an absolute malaise that hangs over the sport's card market. Basketball prospecting is D-E-A-D. I was active in that space prior to the boom and it was more more fun and easier than prospecting in other sports (huge factor in why it took off during the boom). It just sucks now. I've quit entirely in favor of other sports and I am positive I'm not alone.

Many other reasons for the malaise cited already in the thread that ring true to me.

The silly season also seemed to kill off a huge percentage of the "true" collector base in basketball whereas those guys seemed to hang on better in the other major sports.

2) The NBA has been in a funk since the bubble, whereas in the 2010s it had a really ascendant energy. There should have been way more excitement over the Giannis title (hail to the new king! type stuff) and it seemed to just land with a thud. Been like that ever since.

There was a window in the 2010s where millenial dudes were really into nerding out about the NBA. The Curry/Lebron/KD wars were epic, guys like prime Westbook were beloved, and the young players coming into the league seemed really exciting and fresh. Baseball was in a bit of a funk and it seemed like the concussion scandal might finally topple the NFL's hold as the most popular sport.

Since then the NFL has fully reasserted itself as the top dog and baseball(!) seems to be directionally doing very well with a bevy of young stars and Manfred's reforms actually working. The cultural cache seems to have withered for the NBA. Like Star Wars and Marvel (other huge Disney investments) it's still popular but the shine is clearly off and people are looking for something different in the 2020s.


---------

Someone mentioned the international market. This really deserves its own thread because you heard about it ALL THE TIME during the boom. When some of us saw the writing on the wall for BKB and pivoted to good old football and baseball because those markets are much healthier we got to hear a lot about how we were making a huge mistake because of the international market for BKB. Where is your international market now?

Originally Posted by GOATcards

if you aren't basically aligned with my interest in basketball and collecting basketball kards, you're a philiistine

been stocking up on eye-catching top-19-NBA-legends, been "prospecting" some neat-looking Jokic stuff (Gold Team, Origins, etc.) and by volume of neat-looking cards I'm collecting him the most now next to MJ and Russell. (After that it would I guess be Magic and Larry...avatars coming pretty soon...and then GiannisStephTim...gonna be coming up with an aesthetically-best ranking of cards in my collection, that '19 Elite Chef is chef-kiss

I hear that Mahomes and Ohtani are probably kards to collect. Messi?

A good point you've both eluded to is that both Football and Baseball have had a torch passed: Brady > Mahomes and Trout > Ohtani (at least for now).

Basketball is really struggling with that. As much as I love Giannis, he just hasn't built upon his championship victory the last two years to help ascend into that top 10 all time conversation. Jokic has taken the 'best player on the planet' title for now, but you're still seeing guys like LeBron and Curry (and even Giannis) get more all star votes and attention. As discussed, Zion and Lamelo have both have the starts to their careers hampered by injuries. Luka is the closest to taking the reigns, but he just missed the playoffs this season.

Who knows where we'll be in 2 year.... maybe Wemby steps up, or those guys I mentioned above put up a dominate 2 year run and really stand out. But right now, the league is sort of still searching for it's next big thing.

[Nomad]

But for those waiting for a torch to pass.... Well really it's really the best time to be in the hobby. Even my outlandish theories of the Nesmith ascendance are not totally laughed out the door. The sense is that whoever emerges will be unexpected, or at least not profit-baked-in.

[ninjacookies]

BKB market Damar Hamlin undeadening 23/24.


Calling it now.

[WaiverWire]

Separate the responses to this thread based on when members joined Blowout. Longer time BO members for 5 or more years tend to view BKB as dead. People that joined during or after pandemic seem to think “cmon it’s not really dead.” To me, that indicates a lot of the newer people bought at or near the all time highs and are hopeful they aren’t left holding the bags. Old timers are like - “wow, that was a heckuva a boom and bust.”

I’ll go ahead and throw in another factor. The lack of any appealing men’s college basketball. It used to be I would watch players for a year or two in college and become a fan before they entered the NBA. Now that everything is NIL and G-league, all the college basketball teams are kinda garbage and talent is spread thin.

[Scottish Punk]

Originally Posted by WaiverWire

I’ll go ahead and throw in another factor. The lack of any appealing men’s college basketball. It used to be I would watch players for a year or two in college and become a fan before they entered the NBA. Now that everything is NIL and G-league, all the college basketball teams are kinda garbage and talent is spread thin.

I think there is some truth to this. I have stopped watching just about all of the regular season college basketball. Since the pandemic, i haven't been glued to the tournament like years past either.

As far as the draft, the NBA has official become NHL and MLB for me. I look at the the draft picks and don't know anything about them. Hope they are good in a few years!!

[BayAreaChris]

Originally Posted by WaiverWire

Separate the responses to this thread based on when members joined Blowout. Longer time BO members for 5 or more years tend to view BKB as dead. People that joined during or after pandemic seem to think “cmon it’s not really dead.” To me, that indicates a lot of the newer people bought at or near the all time highs and are hopeful they aren’t left holding the bags. Old timers are like - “wow, that was a heckuva a boom and bust.”

I’ll go ahead and throw in another factor. The lack of any appealing men’s college basketball. It used to be I would watch players for a year or two in college and become a fan before they entered the NBA. Now that everything is NIL and G-league, all the college basketball teams are kinda garbage and talent is spread thin.

I think pretty much everyone is saying it’s dead.

[WaiverWire]

Originally Posted by BayAreaChris

I think pretty much everyone is saying it’s dead.

Not the people setting MSRP. Those people did not get the memo.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by WaiverWire

Separate the responses to this thread based on when members joined Blowout. Longer time BO members for 5 or more years tend to view BKB as dead. People that joined during or after pandemic seem to think “cmon it’s not really dead.” To me, that indicates a lot of the newer people bought at or near the all time highs and are hopeful they aren’t left holding the bags. Old timers are like - “wow, that was a heckuva a boom and bust.”

I’ll go ahead and throw in another factor. The lack of any appealing men’s college basketball. It used to be I would watch players for a year or two in college and become a fan before they entered the NBA. Now that everything is NIL and G-league, all the college basketball teams are kinda garbage and talent is spread thin.

I'll disagree with most of this...

College basketball is a nothing-burger to me. Glad players don't have to waste as much time there anymore.

As someone who's been here for more than 5 years, I don't think 'dead' is the right term. Stagnant might be better. And what it has to do with is the lack of expectation for price increases: LeBron has maxed out his accomplishments, Curry and Warriors look like their run is over, Giannis is starting to look like a guy who might not be able to break into that top 10 all time list, Jokic just isnt the marketable guy the way he needs to be, Luka missed the playoffs this year, and so many people are holding heavy bags of Zion/Ja/Lamelo.

What's going to get people to get risky again and start paying up for certain cards?

[discodanman45]

Everything will be ok.

[boxbuster7]

I think Zion is going to bounce back strong this season

[kd the sniper]

just making sure my account is still on blowout.. new phone

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