Excitement Waning for New Releases on BO boards

[JoshMN]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

To spice things up, fanatics needs to come up with a new chrome line - I think something like “hamsterfractor” or “alpacafractor” as a stand alone product would do the job of reeling in the new collectors as future degen…er card enthusiasts.

Any cute, fuzzy animal designed baseball card set would really get people’s juices flowing for a late card season 2023 product ( slated for January 2025 )release.

It's really a FurryFractor you want, isn't it?

[RainCityShecks]

BO’s excitement may be waning but this forum doesn’t appear to be the correct audience or sample. So many products sell like wild fire after being bashed ad nauseam on these boards. I’m back to the hobby for about 2 years now and this is my observation.

Don’t get me wrong - I love these forums and have read many insightful opinions and observations generally speaking. Carry on.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[boxbuster7]

Originally Posted by RainCityShecks

BO’s excitement may be waning but this forum doesn’t appear to be the correct audience or sample. So many products sell like wild fire after being bashed ad nauseam on these boards. I’m back to the hobby for about 2 years now and this is my observation.

Don’t get me wrong - I love these forums and have read many insightful opinions and observations generally speaking. Carry on.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Degens gonna Degen...and yes I bought overtime elite sapphire - we're getting closer and closer to the hobby being a casino than we've ever been

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by JoshMN

It's really a FurryFractor you want, isn't it?

Well, frankly, yes.

My blood pressure got higher dreaming about a new card technology - texture fractor technology where you can actually FEEL the scarcity.

People no longer want game jersey material, they love the shiny stuff so why doesn’t fanatics let their fans FEEL that refractor goodness?

I don’t know about you guys, but I would seriously be hunting down a gerbilfractor furry brown or even tan parallel - I might even consider getting into a break for the first time in my life if they release something like this.

Otherwise, my $100k card budget will stay in my pockets the rest of the year unless they fulfill my fuzzy friend card cravings!

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by RainCityShecks

BO’s excitement may be waning but this forum doesn’t appear to be the correct audience or sample. So many products sell like wild fire after being bashed ad nauseam on these boards. I’m back to the hobby for about 2 years now and this is my observation.

Don’t get me wrong - I love these forums and have read many insightful opinions and observations generally speaking. Carry on.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think the people on BO are generally not the target demographic. Someone alluded to a lot of low-intelligence people in the hobby posting on Instagram and Facebook. Why people choose to spend their disposable income on new trading card products is baffling to me. But if Topps can make money from it, good for them.

[fabiani12333]

I think nearly every comment in this thread revolves around pricing. The higher the prices, the more complaining there is. Inversely, the lower the prices are, the less complaining there is, and the more carefree enthusiasm there is.

Lower quality, higher print runs, no pre-sell info can be justified with low prices. But with high prices, more focus is placed on what is actually being paid for.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

I think nearly every comment in this thread revolves around pricing. The higher the prices, the more complaining there is. Inversely, the lower the prices are, the less complaining there is, and the more carefree enthusiasm there is.

Lower quality, higher print runs, no pre-sell info can be justified with low prices. But with high prices, more focus is placed on what is actually being paid for.

Wax is expensive, most boxes have nothing of value in them which would be great for building sets if not for the price. Then there's the other products that are near impossible to get so what's the point.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by Merkle14

Breaking has ruined the hobby. They have to buy wax to stay afloat. Pass the buck to customers all while increasing the population of cards at a much higher rate than if individuals were ripping. So wax will remain high from breaker demands all while prices of cards really haven’t adjusted if anything singles are down.

Group breaking is a game-changer because it gave the hobby a foothold in the online gambling market. But as has been pointed out many times, it's not a particularly good form of gambling -- the returns are relatively poor compared to other types of gambling.

My theory about group breaking is that a lot of the market was driven by hype during the pandemic -- it was a fad. It blew up along with the rest of the hobby. It was a new and exciting experience to many people. It became a cool thing to do in the hobby. But over time the hype will dissipate, as the newness wears off. The declining resale values of cards will also put downward pressure on the market, as it will make it harder to hype breaks and for compulsive participants to sustain their habit.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by JRX

Wax is expensive, most boxes have nothing of value in them which would be great for building sets if not for the price. Then there's the other products that are near impossible to get so what's the point.

A lot of products in the 90s had premium quality base cards. It started with 1989 Upper Deck; then took another step with 1991 Stadium Club; then you had 1993 Finest and 1993 Flair etc. The price increases for those products were justified because of the high quality base cards, which represented almost all the cards you'd rip in a product. As a result, you didn't feel like it was a big waste of money. The closest feeling to that now is Sapphire. 2022 TC Ben Baller also had premium base cards.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by cardsin47

It’s ALL based on which key rookies ( if any ) are in a given years Product. If the REAL next Mickey Mantle came along, all the talk about too many Products, too expensive for the EV, too many inserts, and too much Production would INSTANTLY end.

I disagree with you on this. The 2023 class is absolutely as exciting as any class at the time of release...including 2018. Just for example, the big 3 in 2018 Update were Acuna, Soto, and Gleyer. The BCA price of Walker (implied), Carroll, and Gunnar are all in the ballpark of those three. Last year J-Rod, Wander, and Witt were all higher...even after adjusting for the higher overall market. There is plenty of excitement for the players.

The problem, IMO, comes down to price. Since the cards are about the same this year and the cost is much higher, that drives people away from buying to open wax. Rip and flip is just not a thing at all anymore, so that segment is completely gone. Even the clecters are shifting to just buying singles and group breaks.

There was an exception in 2022 though....Logofractor. That product had a level of excitement comparable to 2018/2019 for this board and tons of it was opened. The reason? It was reasonably priced out of the gate relative to its contents.

The problem with the Mantle Theory is every young rookie star is the next Mantle at release. The thing that makes 2018 so special is those guys kept producing and some even elevated their game. Soto, Acuna, and especially Ohtani are pretty much the faces of the game right now. Basically you won't know who even has a realistic shot to be the next Mantle/Trout until 3-4 years down the road...and even then they'll still come up short more often than not!

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

I disagree with you on this. The 2023 class is absolutely as exciting as any class at the time of release...including 2018. Just for example, the big 3 in 2018 Update were Acuna, Soto, and Gleyer. The BCA price of Walker (implied), Carroll, and Gunnar are all in the ballpark of those three. Last year J-Rod, Wander, and Witt were all higher...even after adjusting for the higher overall market. There is plenty of excitement for the players.

The problem, IMO, comes down to price. Since the cards are about the same this year and the cost is much higher, that drives people away from buying to open wax. Rip and flip is just not a thing at all anymore, so that segment is completely gone. Even the clecters are shifting to just buying singles and group breaks.

There was an exception in 2022 though....Logofractor. That product had a level of excitement comparable to 2018/2019 for this board and tons of it was opened. The reason? It was reasonably priced out of the gate relative to its contents.

The problem with the Mantle Theory is every young rookie star is the next Mantle at release. The thing that makes 2018 so special is those guys kept producing and some even elevated their game. Soto, Acuna, and especially Ohtani are pretty much the faces of the game right now. Basically you won't know who even has a realistic shot to be the next Mantle/Trout until 3-4 years down the road...and even then they'll still come up short more often than not!

Mantle didn't even hit 30 home runs until his fifth year in the league.

You've got Corbin Carroll on pace to have a 30 HR, 40 SB season in his rookie year! Do people even realize how crazy that is?

Wander was hyped to the gills. Everyone was calling him a generational talent. He's a solid player, but at some point people need to stop calling every top prospect a generational talent -- it's become very cliché.

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

at some point people need to stop calling every top prospect a generational talent -- it's become very cliché.

…. and expensive!

[thenightman]

I had vowed at the start of the year not to buy any retail wax. I broke down a few times after about 6 weeks. Bought some NBA prizm and monopoly boosters and a hockey tin. I’d say I spent roughly $300 total. Small sample size and all that, but the best card I pulled was a $3 Franz Wagner card.

I haven’t repeated that mistake over the last 5 months and really shined a light on how bad retail wax is as a chase product.

I was in Walmart the other day and saw loads of new NBA select megas and blasters. I didn’t even have the itch to buy them. Fanatics/Topps/Panini took products they couldn’t keep on the shelves and destroyed fans desire for them. Hard thing to do but they pulled it off.

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by thenightman

I had vowed at the start of the year not to buy any retail wax. I broke down a few times after about 6 weeks. Bought some NBA prizm and monopoly boosters and a hockey tin. I’d say I spent roughly $300 total. Small sample size and all that, but the best card I pulled was a $3 Franz Wagner card.

I haven’t repeated that mistake over the last 5 months and really shined a light on how bad retail wax is as a chase product.

I was in Walmart the other day and saw loads of new NBA select megas and blasters. I didn’t even have the itch to buy them. Fanatics/Topps/Panini took products they couldn’t keep on the shelves and destroyed fans desire for them. Hard thing to do but they pulled it off.

I agree with this.

In the past, the first thing I did when I went to Wal-mart was head to the card section. I don't even bother now. Retail is a tough break with modern wax and over production. I think this year so far, I bought two blasters of HHN on clearance and even at $17 bucks a pop took a bath.


In the past, I went in with the expectation of busting retail and on rare occasion being surprised by a good hit. Now? No way. I know it's a small sample size, but I don't think I'm off base here.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Mantle didn't even hit 30 home runs until his fifth year in the league.



You've got Corbin Carroll on pace to have a 30 HR, 40 SB season in his rookie year! Do people even realize how crazy that is?



Wander was hyped to the gills. Everyone was calling him a generational talent. He's a solid player, but at some point people need to stop calling every top prospect a generational talent -- it's become very cliché.

The problem is while the print runs have grown 10x (I jest) the hobby has not. No base card of any of these guys will be worth anything except for the sapphire aka breakers paradise.

Watching breaks especially houdinis 100 caser showed me just how awful the odds really are and how vast the auto checklists are. Or take a case of topps 5 star archives gold whatever since I can't keep any of those products straight, even the case hit at times sucks. You might as well use your money to start the grill.

Sent from my SM-A546U1 using Tapatalk

[ScooterD]

Part of it that (I don’t think) has been mentioned yet is fatigue.

It was one thing for us to anticipate and celebrate the release for Topps flagship (S1, S2, Update), Heritage (regular and high), Chrome, Chrome Update, and Bowman “flagship” (regular, chrome, and draft) every year. Now, many of these releases have been bifurcated into niche releases, and we have direct online releases. People only have so much excitement and money to disperse into the hobby/business

[JRX]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Mantle didn't even hit 30 home runs until his fifth year in the league.

You've got Corbin Carroll on pace to have a 30 HR, 40 SB season in his rookie year! Do people even realize how crazy that is?

Wander was hyped to the gills. Everyone was calling him a generational talent. He's a solid player, but at some point people need to stop calling every top prospect a generational talent -- it's become very cliché.

Outside of baseball card message boards and fantasy baseball players, nobody knows who Corbin Carroll is. They're more likely to know about elly de la cruz from a highlight on tik tock.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by ScooterD

Part of it that (I don’t think) has been mentioned yet is fatigue.

It was one thing for us to anticipate and celebrate the release for Topps flagship (S1, S2, Update), Heritage (regular and high), Chrome, Chrome Update, and Bowman “flagship” (regular, chrome, and draft) every year. Now, many of these releases have been bifurcated into niche releases, and we have direct online releases. People only have so much excitement and money to disperse into the hobby/business

True, but just focus on what excites you then. Right? I have ZERO interest in Logofractor, Sonic, Ben Baller, and many others, so I just ignore them. I’m just mainly looking forward to Update and Cosmic, with a little Bowman’s Best too.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by JRX

Outside of baseball card message boards and fantasy baseball players, nobody knows who Corbin Carroll is. They're more likely to know about elly de la cruz from a highlight on tik tock.

Hmm… I don’t totally agree with this, and either way, that’s going to change over the next year or two.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by JRX

Outside of baseball card message boards and fantasy baseball players, nobody knows who Corbin Carroll is. They're more likely to know about elly de la cruz from a highlight on tik tock.

Carroll was a starter for the All Star game -- a rookie!

Yes, De La Cruz has the flashy athletic attributes -- 100th percentile in sprint speed; 6' 5" and muscular; some long home runs. But Carroll has already established himself as a good, everyday player.

Seems like vanilla dudes like Carroll and Rutschman don't get as much hobby love as the flashy, athletic types.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Carroll was a starter for the All Star game -- a rookie!

Yes, De La Cruz has the flashy athletic attributes -- 100th percentile in sprint speed; 6' 5" and muscular; some long home runs. But Carroll has already established himself as a good, everyday player.

Seems like vanilla dudes like Carroll and Rutschman don't get as much hobby love as the flashy, athletic types.

That's how social media works. Trout is a perfect example of this.

[wood minis]

I used to enjoy building flagship gold parallel sets because I could get larger lots and then fill in the gaps. But a lot of folks that used to bust a bunch of cases that had those large lots have been priced out so I don't build those sets anymore.

I'm grateful I'm not just starting out in the hobby because the direction is most definitely towards more gambling, more quantity, and too often less quality. So I'll stick to buying singles because I still want to collect, just not as all in as before.

I still get excited for Allen & Ginter because the wood minis are my favorite cards to collect. But even that is getting more difficult because of the shift towards including popular culture people that I have no interest in collecting.

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by JRX

Outside of baseball card message boards and fantasy baseball players, nobody knows who Corbin Carroll is. They're more likely to know about elly de la cruz from a highlight on tik tock.

Yup - I think this is accurate. Elly reminds me ( the flashiness ) of Tatis in that respect - he was very TikTok-able

[daveyc1]

There are just too many products now. there can be no anticipation/excitement if the next product is out the following week.

they should put out 2 low end, 2 mid tier, and 2 high end products, spaced out throughout the spring/summer. It would give dealers more time to sell out and collectors wallets a chance to reload before the next new product releases.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by daveyc1

There are just too many products now. there can be no anticipation/excitement if the next product is out the following week.

they should put out 2 low end, 2 mid tier, and 2 high end products, spaced out throughout the spring/summer. It would give dealers more time to sell out and collectors wallets a chance to reload before the next new product releases.

Whoa there, you gotta keep the breakers going 24/7. Bro, you just gotta take out another credit card.