Hall of Fame vs. Prospect Autos

[brjohnston1985]

Originally Posted by livealoha

Could it be that maybe the newer collectors/newer generation have a connection to the newer players vs the HOFers. Foe example maybe every newer collector knows tatis jr , acuna jr , guerrero jr, alonso and wander franco, but might not know who nolan ryan, johnny bench or frank robinson are? maybe they only want players that they know and see on tv or at the stadium. newer collectors might not know who jenkins or dawson are but will tell you all about julio rodriguez, mookie betts or shohei ohtani!

Those players you mentioned are not prospects. They are established stars. I’m talking mainly about prospects who haven’t reached the majors yet and many of whom aren’t even at the top of their team’s prospect rankings. To me, their autos - even though they are Bowman firsts and yes I get that they are different - are not worth nearly as much as autos of established players. But obviously a lot of people disagree with me; otherwise we wouldn’t be having this discussion.

[brjohnston1985]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

As someone mentioned, you're comparing apples to oranges. An In-person Autographed index card by Elly De La Cruz is nothing compared to his Bowman Chrome 1st Auto.

At least 30-40 future HOF's are playing every year based on educated sources.

If you look at 80s and 90s players, their most expensive rookie cards are the limited parallel sets like Topps Tiffany. The Topps flagship rookie card is more sought after for most of the HOF players from the 80s compared to other companies. Simple supply vs demand. 1st Bowman Chrome Autos will have similar demand over time.

Then there is the level of player. People are hoping to hit the next Mike Trout, Derek Jeter or Ken Griffey Jr.

Imagine what a Jeter or Griffey Jr Bowman 1st Auto would go for today? Easily $5000 plus each with Golds in the $25k-$50k range. That actually might be low.

People hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. Collect what you like.

Yes I’ve already acknowledged others’ point about Bowman first autos being different. And again, in my personal opinion, that still doesn’t justify the massive price difference between established HOF autos and autos of totally unproven guys, I don’t care whether they’re Bowman first autos or not. If you think it does then we will just have to agree to disagree.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by brjohnston1985

Yes I’ve already acknowledged others’ point about Bowman first autos being different. And again, in my personal opinion, that still doesn’t justify the massive price difference between established HOF autos and autos of totally unproven guys, I don’t care whether they’re Bowman first autos or not. If you think it does then we will just have to agree to disagree.

It’s not the autos that’s necessarily causing the price difference, but that card that they’re on. A 1st Bowman is a key card to have for player collectors, a card printed 20 years after they retire for some oddball Topps set isn’t.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

But the buy-in price for cards of noteworthy prospects start off relatively high. So you're spending just as much or more to acquire prospects as you are when they've already become star players.

The financial downside of collecting prospects far outweigh the upside.

Bingo! The pandemic price jumps highlight this phenomenon.

The “best” chrome prospect autos used to be around $100 max.

Now they start off at $500-$1000.

Dem millennial klectors be rich!

[dream34]

Comparing arguably a player's best ever card to another player's #500-1000th best card is probably the main difference here.

Better to compare to a Fergie Jenkins RC in higher grade (last PSA 9 did $1890; last PSA 10 did $28,200) or compare a young player's #500-1000th best card (probably somewhere in his 7-8th MLB season) to Jenkins #500-1000th best card.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Bingo! The pandemic price jumps highlight this phenomenon.

The “best” chrome prospect autos used to be around $100 max.

Now they start off at $500-$1000.

Dem millennial klectors be rich!

Seriously. I remember back when I went to a Braves Spring Training game, saw their #1 Prospect Austin Riley (who hadn’t yet played an MLB inning), was impressed by what I saw, went and bought his 1st Bowman auto for $40. It was raw, but it would later gem with SGC. Can’t do that anymore.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

Seriously. I remember back when I went to a Braves Spring Training game, saw their #1 Prospect Austin Riley (who hadn’t yet played an MLB inning), was impressed by what I saw, went bought and bought his 1st Bowman auto for $40. It was raw, but it would later gem with SGC. Can’t do that anymore.

Crazy thing is nowadays, that $40 is the buy-in price for 17 year old prospects that may not even make it past high-A ball in their lifetimes.

[jzx1103]

I remembered buying Evan Longoria first Bowman Chrome auto for $100 when it first came out. And Clayton Kershaw for $250 after he already became an established Star. Good times lol. Btw Longoria's PSA 10 today is sitting on Ebay for $150 unsold and he probably had a better career than 90% of these prospects will have in the future thats currently selling 5x to 10x of that

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by brjohnston1985

I bought a Fergie Jenkins and an Andre Dawson auto and spent a total of $30. Two HOF certified autos for $30. Meanwhile, some people are spending hundreds and even thousands on cards of totally unproven prospects

It’s the theory of might and won’t

One of the Prospects “might” be on of the best players with the hottest cards for many years to come.
Dawson and Jenkins definitely “won’t” be

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by cardsin47

It’s the theory of might and won’t

One of the Prospects “might” be on of the best players with the hottest cards for many years to come.
Dawson and Jenkins definitely “won’t” be

It’s also not their prospect and/or rookie card.

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

It’s also not their prospect and/or rookie card.

Oh yeah…… and there’s that

[hermanotarjeta]

Non-first year autographs of Jenkins and Dawson can be signed through eternity, the population count will only go up with each passing product and year.

There is only a finite number of autographed chrome first year cards of prospects.

[Silent George]

Originally Posted by dream34

Comparing arguably a player's best ever card to another player's #500-1000th best card is probably the main difference here.

Better to compare to a Fergie Jenkins RC in higher grade (last PSA 9 did $1890; last PSA 10 did $28,200) or compare a young player's #500-1000th best card (probably somewhere in his 7-8th MLB season) to Jenkins #500-1000th best card.

I think where a lot of the disconnect that comes in is the card itself.

If you’re hunting a bowman chrome 1st year autograph, then the auto is just a part of the card, the set, the numbering, the card condition, weigh very heavy. As has been pointed out, often the picture and the actual auto look like crap.

For an auto collector, where the drive isn’t the card, but the autograph itself, the importance or potential of the card means a lot less. What means more is the overall arthritic appearance of the card, starting with a good looking auto itself.

So a lot of times the debates are between “look what a sought after card I have”
Versus “look what a really cool autograph I have”

[brjohnston1985]

Ok, people keep making the point that Bowman first cards are key cards for a player, and once again I get that. I guess personally it doesn’t mean as much to me as it does to other collectors. Using my Cubs example… today I bought an Andre Dawson auto /199 for $15. A Cristian Hernandez Bowman first auto /299 recently went for about $185 on eBay. Hernandez is the Cubs’ ninth ranked prospect and is still projected to be three years away from the majors. To me, if I had to pick one of those two cards, it’s a no-brainer that I’d buy the Dawson. If Hernandez does become a star one day, then I’ll have a great card for my collection ten years from now. But it’s more likely that he won’t, and I’ll have spent nearly $200 on a card that means very little to me. Sorry but that’s just not a collecting approach I want to take. Meanwhile, I know the Dawson will still mean a lot to me ten years from now and I bought it for less than 10% of the cost. If Hernandez does become a star one day, and I decide I want to collect him, I can always find other cards of his that are cheaper.

I know there are a lot of people that don’t see it this way, but that’s how I like to collect.

[ScooterD]

The most important part of the post above is that you want to collect the players that you like at an affordable price. There is nothing wrong with that at all.

You want Mantle - pick up a recent Topps sp variation for $10.

You want Jackie R - same as above.

The biggest difference between you and others (here and elsewhere) is that you aren’t chasing the BIG cards of these players. No #311 or ‘48 Leaf necessary. You’ll take the current iteration with the player.

Some people want the big fish - which is fine too. Everyone wins - it’s just that your win is different than theirs.

[brjohnston1985]

Originally Posted by ScooterD

The most important part of the post above is that you want to collect the players that you like at an affordable price. There is nothing wrong with that at all.

You want Mantle - pick up a recent Topps sp variation for $10.

You want Jackie R - same as above.

The biggest difference between you and others (here and elsewhere) is that you aren’t chasing the BIG cards of these players. No #311 or ‘48 Leaf necessary. You’ll take the current iteration with the player.

Some people want the big fish - which is fine too. Everyone wins - it’s just that your win is different than theirs.

Exactly. I don’t have a big enough collecting budget to justify spending thousands on guys that there’s a “chance” will someday pan out. I have to take a more creative approach to satisfy my desire to collect, and that’s mine. I get that it’s different for others.

[OhioLawyerF5]

If you're discussing future values of cards you have already left the realm of pure collecting and entered investing territory.

Sent from my SM-S918U using Tapatalk

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by brjohnston1985

This morning, I bought a Fergie Jenkins and an Andre Dawson auto and spent a total of $30. Two HOF certified autos for $30. Meanwhile, some people are spending hundreds and even thousands on cards of totally unproven prospects on a daily basis.

Does this seem crazy to anyone else? And no I’m not a newbie; I’ve been collecting for over 30 years. I guess after all this time it still doesn’t make much sense to me but it does make me grateful that this hobby can still be affordable for people like me!

HOF cards have different “purpose” than pre-rookie cards.

The large majority of people buying the latter are looking to sell them whereas the people buying the former are looking to keep ‘em.

Furthermore, people wanting to maximize profit with pre-rookies want to work together to do so in unregulated markets.

People looking for HOF cards want to keep costs down so they can maximize their purchasing power.

People looking to do both always eventually move to the selling side. If they were to eventually move to the collecting side afterwards (which is rare) they always completely stop selling cold turkey unless they own a card selling business.

Of course some people will come here and claim they’re different or special…but they’re either lying or delusional.

[brjohnston1985]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

If you're discussing future values of cards you have already left the realm of pure collecting and entered investing territory.

Sent from my SM-S918U using Tapatalk

I don’t collect cards for my PC thinking about what I might be able to sell them for later. I do, however, buy cards expecting them to hold (or increase) their SENTIMENTAL value to me in the future. This is why I don’t collect prospects: because the vast majority of the time, they don’t pan out and therefore their sentimental value falls dramatically considering what I had to pay to get them. HOF autos will always mean the same to me the rest of my life. I don’t think that’s unreasonable.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by brjohnston1985

I don’t collect cards for my PC thinking about what I might be able to sell them for later. I do, however, buy cards expecting them to hold (or increase) their SENTIMENTAL value to me in the future. This is why I don’t collect prospects: because the vast majority of the time, they don’t pan out and therefore their sentimental value falls dramatically considering what I had to pay to get them. HOF autos will always mean the same to me the rest of my life. I don’t think that’s unreasonable.

Ah yes, so you see, you're making a distinction between sentimental value, commonly associated with Hall of Famer autograph cards made post-retirement, and financial value, commonly associated with newer 1st Bowman cards.

Based on your original post, you believe that sentimental value should translate more to financial value. This is why you made the distinction between Hall of Famer autograph cards and prospect cards.

But the reality is prospect cards offer an important financial-related element that Hall of Famer autograph cards don't -- the gambling element. The possibility that a prospects card can dramatically rise in value and generate a profit, however remote. Hall of Famer autograph cards offer no similar possibility beyond the death of a player, which often temporarily boosts the demand and values of that player's autograph cards.

[Archangel1775]

Collect what you like. Bowman Chrome 1st Autos are here to stay and people will speculate on who the next superstar is for a very long time. They'll also spend a ton of money on them. Go check out a Houdini Bowman 100 case auction. As someone mentioned, Bowman Chrome 1st Autos are arguably the players best card. Just as basketball National Treasures RPA's are special, baseball has Bowman Chrome 1st Autos.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

HOF cards have different “purpose” than pre-rookie cards.

The large majority of people buying the latter are looking to sell them whereas the people buying the former are looking to keep ‘em.

Furthermore, people wanting to maximize profit with pre-rookies want to work together to do so in unregulated markets.

People looking for HOF cards want to keep costs down so they can maximize their purchasing power.

People looking to do both always eventually move to the selling side. If they were to eventually move to the collecting side afterwards (which is rare) they always completely stop selling cold turkey unless they own a card selling business.

Of course some people will come here and claim they’re different or special…but they’re either lying or delusional.

More truth bombs from MoreToppsPlease.

One important thing to consider when discussing the selling of prospect cards is the cost to acquire them. The costs to dealers and flippers to obtain prospect cards are relatively high, therefore they must sell them even higher to make a profit.

[fabiani12333]

Another way to compare 1st Bowman cards and Hall of Famer autograph cards is to compare the total market values of each. If you take the average value of every card of the typical newer Bowman 1st card and compare it to the average value of every card of the typical Hall of Famer autograph card made post-retirement, you might come to a different conclusion of their relative values.

[Biohazarddfl]

Which bowman chrome autos of major current stars do you all particularly like? Soto, acuna, vlad, tatis, and yordan are all abominations.

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[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by brjohnston1985

because the vast majority of the time, they don’t pan out and therefore their sentimental value falls dramatically considering what I had to pay to get them. HOF autos will always mean the same to me the rest of my life. I don’t think that’s unreasonable.

It takes work to select the right prospects. Years ago, I spent hours researching players on Bowman checklists that were Bowman Chrome 1st's both Auto and Non-Auto. I've had winners and losers but the players I target are usually under $10 per auto. With that arduous work, I've done pretty well on a few players. Matter in fact, one is a Cy Young winner and another is in the running. There is some great sentiment with them. I don't think that's unreasonable. Part of the joy of collecting is the journey. Collect what you like.