First Buzz: 2023 Topps Heritage baseball cards

[StlBen]

Originally Posted by babybull

Why is this priced at 200 bucks on ebay?

Short printed rookie. The question is just how short printed.


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[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by mfw13

It's not just the price....it's also the fact that the checklist is getting worse every year.

For example, this year Kershaw and Verlander have no base cards.

Miggy Cabrera, Kershaw, Verlander, and Bo Bichette have no chromes/minis.

Meanwhile more and more no-name rookies are populating the checklist

It's like Topps/Fanatics have completely lost sight of who the target audience is for this product and what the product's identity is supposed to me.

Prior to Judge in 2017, you almost NEVER saw rookie autos in Heritage.....

Two things. One, they always hold a few names back for High Number even if not the greatest names. A few decent vets were inevitably going to show up in HH# and you've likely identified two of them.

Two, what would you guess is the percentage of rookies on MLB teams today compared to even 10 years ago, and then 20, 30, 40 and 50 years ago?

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong but baseball seems to be trending in the direction of calling up prospects as soon as humanly possible in addition to using minor league pitchers pretty liberally for spot starts and load management. If a 725 card checklist is supposed to be an accurate reflection of the modern MLB roster, and modern MLB rosters happen to be loaded with rookies, then isn't it a given that more and more rookies will appear?

[MotorboatJones]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

Two things. One, they always hold a few names back for High Number even if not the greatest names. A few decent vets were inevitably going to show up in HH# and you've likely identified two of them.

Two, what would you guess is the percentage of rookies on MLB teams today compared to even 10 years ago, and then 20, 30, 40 and 50 years ago?

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong but baseball seems to be trending in the direction of calling up prospects as soon as humanly possible in addition to using minor league pitchers pretty liberally for spot starts and load management. If a 725 card checklist is supposed to be an accurate reflection of the modern MLB roster, and modern MLB rosters happen to be loaded with rookies, then isn't it a given that more and more rookies will appear?

Exactly !

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

Two things. One, they always hold a few names back for High Number even if not the greatest names. A few decent vets were inevitably going to show up in HH# and you've likely identified two of them.

True.

But that doesn't explain why Miggy and Bichette don't have chromes/minis, since they are on the regular checklist.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

Two, what would you guess is the percentage of rookies on MLB teams today compared to even 10 years ago, and then 20, 30, 40 and 50 years ago?

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong but baseball seems to be trending in the direction of calling up prospects as soon as humanly possible in addition to using minor league pitchers pretty liberally for spot starts and load management. If a 725 card checklist is supposed to be an accurate reflection of the modern MLB roster, and modern MLB rosters happen to be loaded with rookies, then isn't it a given that more and more rookies will appear?

Perhaps.....but people really only want cards of rookies who are projected to be impact players. Nobody cares about middle relievers/spot starters.

The increasing number of rookies in Heritage is a not-so-subtle attempt to appeal to investors/gamblers.

[mwash1983]

Originally Posted by StlBen

Short printed rookie. The question is just how short printed.


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I think they are probably the same odds as the image variation, can’t imagine these would be over $50.00 by the end of the week.

[Jolten Joe]

Originally Posted by mwash1983

I think they are probably the same odds as the image variation, can’t imagine these would be over $50.00 by the end of the week.

I'll give it until Series 2 hits where they will all have regular base cards and the photos Topps chose will also play a role as well.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

Two things. One, they always hold a few names back for High Number even if not the greatest names. A few decent vets were inevitably going to show up in HH# and you've likely identified two of them.

Two, what would you guess is the percentage of rookies on MLB teams today compared to even 10 years ago, and then 20, 30, 40 and 50 years ago?

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong but baseball seems to be trending in the direction of calling up prospects as soon as humanly possible in addition to using minor league pitchers pretty liberally for spot starts and load management. If a 725 card checklist is supposed to be an accurate reflection of the modern MLB roster, and modern MLB rosters happen to be loaded with rookies, then isn't it a given that more and more rookies will appear?

MLB qualified rookies / total players used in a game = percentage of players that are rookies

2022: 239 / 1,495 = 15.98%

2016: 195 / 1,353 = 14.41%

2012: 188 / 1,284 = 14.64%


Topps Heritage year: rookies cards / total base cards = percentage of base cards that are rookie cards

2023: 110 / 500 = 22%

2022: 62 / 500 = 12.4%

2017: 50 RCs / 500 base cards = 10%

[AnthonyCorona]

Love the Julio images! Can’t wait for the race to the bottom


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[ObanMontecristo]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

MLB qualified rookies / total players used in a game = percentage of players that are rookies

2022: 239 / 1,495 = 15.98%

2016: 195 / 1,353 = 14.41%

2012: 188 / 1,284 = 14.64%


Topps Heritage year: rookies cards / total base cards = percentage of base cards that are rookie cards

2023: 110 / 500 = 22%

2022: 62 / 500 = 12.4%

2017: 50 RCs / 500 base cards = 10%

But is part of this because they’ve started printing fewer RCs with 2 or 3 (or more) players on them? Like I’ve got to think most people would have preferred a 2017 Topps Heritage Aaron Judge solo rookie card, rather than one with him and Tyler Austin….

[DonnieBaseball2]

Originally Posted by AnthonyCorona

Love the Julio images! Can’t wait for the race to the bottom

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Saw the real one pulled last night. Awesome image with rookie cup logo. Sweet card

[DarcyWinston]

Chromes are 1:73 and action variations are 1:68. I’m old enough to remember getting one of each in nearly every box.

[Jolten Joe]

Yeah Volpe and Walker are not going to be sub $100 anytime soon unless the SP's are printed to the moon those are solid looking photos.

[DonnieBaseball2]

Originally Posted by DarcyWinston

Chromes are 1:73 and action variations are 1:68. I’m old enough to remember getting one of each in nearly every box.

I love heritage, but this is a rough break. Numerous boxes with literally nothing in them.

[smanzari]

Originally Posted by Jolten Joe

Yeah Volpe and Walker are not going to be sub $100 anytime soon unless the SP's are printed to the moon those are solid looking photos.

Are we sure they're the SPs? Some sellers have like 4-5 of them and that seems suspect at this time on release day (could totally see that many if there's base, but if they're SPs - you'd think it would take XX number of cases to get that many)

[Hockey24xx]

Originally Posted by smanzari

Are we sure they're the SPs? Some sellers have like 4-5 of them and that seems suspect at this time on release day (could totally see that many if there's base, but if they're SPs - you'd think it would take XX number of cases to get that many)

I've opened 10 cases so far and pulled zero Walkers and 3 Volpe. I think there are 5 or so rookie variations and it looks like you get 1 of those 5 players per case.

[Jolten Joe]

Originally Posted by smanzari

Are we sure they're the SPs? Some sellers have like 4-5 of them and that seems suspect at this time on release day (could totally see that many if there's base, but if they're SPs - you'd think it would take XX number of cases to get that many)

yes because they don't have regular base cards. 282 base is Gleyber Torres 282 SP is Volpe. They basically are like the Topps Series 1&2 HOF SP's where they are photo variation SP's.


You will see a huge influx off the bat because soooooo many people are breaking this stuff in mass but ebay listings should drop dramatically within a couple of weeks. So it's going to look like there are way more than there are initially.

[smanzari]

Originally Posted by Hockey24xx

I've opened 10 cases so far and pulled zero Walkers and 3 Volpe. I think there are 5 or so rookie variations and it looks like you get 1 of those 5 players per case.

I didn't realize they didn't have base cards - makes sense (first year I have no desire opening this, so living vicariously through this thread)

[erock28]

Originally Posted by Hockey24xx

I've opened 10 cases so far and pulled zero Walkers and 3 Volpe. I think there are 5 or so rookie variations and it looks like you get 1 of those 5 players per case.

I would have imagined these falling 1ish per case total. With 8,800+ cases out there, there'd be 1,800ish of each guy. Unless people are going to continue to pay stupid money, these will drop like a rock. List 'em now, list 'em fast!

[FatButcher]

Originally Posted by Hockey24xx

I've opened 10 cases so far and pulled zero Walkers and 3 Volpe. I think there are 5 or so rookie variations and it looks like you get 1 of those 5 players per case.

10 "so far"!?!? My eyes hurt in solidarity sorting that much volume.

[Technochocolate]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

Two things. One, they always hold a few names back for High Number even if not the greatest names. A few decent vets were inevitably going to show up in HH# and you've likely identified two of them.

Two, what would you guess is the percentage of rookies on MLB teams today compared to even 10 years ago, and then 20, 30, 40 and 50 years ago?

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong but baseball seems to be trending in the direction of calling up prospects as soon as humanly possible in addition to using minor league pitchers pretty liberally for spot starts and load management. If a 725 card checklist is supposed to be an accurate reflection of the modern MLB roster, and modern MLB rosters happen to be loaded with rookies, then isn't it a given that more and more rookies will appear?

A few random things worth noting:

As the cutoff date for RCs continues to be earlier and earlier, that means a higher backlog of RCs to fit in to next year’s set.

Also Heritage usually does dual RCs, but they mostly abandoned it this year.

That said, I think the actual ratios are still a bit off. Indeed Heritage should be the one and only truly RC proof set of the year and this year they busted through that.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by ObanMontecristo

But is part of this because they’ve started printing fewer RCs with 2 or 3 (or more) players on them? Like I’ve got to think most people would have preferred a 2017 Topps Heritage Aaron Judge solo rookie card, rather than one with him and Tyler Austin….

Oops -- I counted dual and triple rookie cards as separate cards. Here's the correct tally:

MLB qualified rookies / total players used in a game = percentage of players that are rookies

2022: 239 / 1,495 = 15.98%

2016: 195 / 1,353 = 14.41%

2012: 188 / 1,284 = 14.64%


Topps Heritage year: rookies cards / total base cards = percentage of base cards that are rookie cards

2023: 110 / 500 = 22%

2022: 54 (4 triple RCs) / 500 = 10.8% (62 total rookies depicted)

2017: 25 (all dual) / 500 = 5% (50 total rookies depicted)

[PumpnDumpling]

Originally Posted by DarcyWinston

Chromes are 1:73 and action variations are 1:68. I’m old enough to remember getting one of each in nearly every box.

Congratulations on turning 13

[DarcyWinston]

Originally Posted by PumpnDumpling

Congratulations on turning 13

7 actually. Look it up. 2017 heritage odds.

[PumpnDumpling]

Originally Posted by DarcyWinston

7 actually. Look it up. 2017 heritage odds.

How are you supposed to remember things when you are not cognizant?

I fig'd you were at least 5 or 6 when 2016 rolled out