2023 Bowman Sapphire Baseball Odds--PR Down?

[txrngr34]

While I don't personally care what people buy, when a large number of people buy widely-considered overpriced products it affects the market and Fanatics continues to overprice everything it thinks it can sell like that.

My belief is that the majority of us here are primarily collectors who prefer spending reasonable money instead of throwing insane money ($350+?!?!) at high-risk/moderate-reward product.

[Zauron]

I think its hilarious people are trying to justify the pricing and how it should settle at $450/$500. 2022 Bowman Sapphire can be had for less than that cost so this is laughable to me in a way.

[Jolten Joe]

Originally Posted by Zauron

I think its hilarious people are trying to justify the pricing and how it should settle at $450/$500. 2022 Bowman Sapphire can be had for less than that cost so this is laughable to me in a way.

Where is this magical place you can buy it for less than that right now ? Sold Out means Sold Out. They aren't starting up the presses to print more batches. As stated you are dreaming if you think these are going for $500 + on the secondary market and the big online sites are going to have them for a lot less than that. At that point they'd be better off just selling it on ebay.

[notoriousrmb]

Originally Posted by Jolten Joe

Where is this magical place you can buy it for less than that right now ? Sold Out means Sold Out. They aren't starting up the presses to print more batches. As stated you are dreaming if you think these are going for $500 + on the secondary market and the big online sites are going to have them for a lot less than that. At that point they'd be better off just selling it on ebay.

Also dreaming if you think Week 1 ebay sales are legit...so much market manipulation going on there.

[Jolten Joe]

Originally Posted by notoriousrmb

Also dreaming if you think Week 1 ebay sales are legit...so much market manipulation going on there.

We will see

[KhalDrogo]

Sounds like a lot of you never paid attention to Panini football and basketball Dutch auctions. Fanatics is rolling out the same playbook.

[oddstuff]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Sounds like a lot of you never paid attention to Panini football and basketball Dutch auctions. Fanatics is rolling out the same playbook.

Guess "baseball only" folks need to get burned a bit first before they/we wisen up.

[BigRedMachine80]

Originally Posted by Jolten Joe

We will see

Oh man, are you new to the hobby? All singles are high the first few weeks of a new release and then drop off a cliff. You can set your clock to it.

[Supercomputers]

In what world do we live in that most of you have no clue how this works. This item was offered to all only via the Dutch auction format. Retail Buyers, Stores, Wholesalers, Breakers were all buying on the same Platform.

Your balking at the price but seem to loose track of only 1000 cases Made. That's extremely low run in todays market. These boxes will be loaded. They were a slam dunk anywhere in the 375-500 range from a production stand point alone. Not many cases were left at the 350 level at all. Class is deep and pretty good long run and thats a bonus. Looks like Topps is toying with creating low print level products and we love it but it looks like were all going to have to pay to play.

[Jolten Joe]

Originally Posted by BigRedMachine80

Oh man, are you new to the hobby? All singles are high the first few weeks of a new release and then drop off a cliff. You can set your clock to it.

We are talking strictly sealed boxes as nobody even has these in hand so singles aren't even an option. I'm sure a few will open hoping for that Druw Jones color to send off to PSA but I have a feeling the vast majority of this product is going to stay sealed. Maybe I'm wrong and if I am I will admit it just like I was wrong about it selling out around the $500-$600 mark and kudos to those who waited for that $375 mark and sour grapes to those who just hade to wait it out for that extra $25 and missed out and will now still pay $400-$500 on the secondary market if they want to open any.

[PDCCollectibles]

Originally Posted by BigRedMachine80

Oh man, are you new to the hobby? All singles are high the first few weeks of a new release and then drop off a cliff. You can set your clock to it.

Exactly this....in his/her defense, might be new to the hobby not realizing the usual trends most products follow.

[Jolten Joe]

Originally Posted by Supercomputers

In what world do we live in that most of you have no clue how this works. This item was offered to all only via the Dutch auction format. Retail Buyers, Stores, Wholesalers, Breakers were all buying on the same Platform.

Your balking at the price but seem to loose track of only 1000 cases Made. That's extremely low run in todays market. These boxes will be loaded. They were a slam dunk anywhere in the 375-500 range from a production stand point alone. Not many cases were left at the 350 level at all. Class is deep and pretty good long run and thats a bonus. Looks like Topps is toying with creating low print level products and we love it but it looks like were all going to have to pay to play.

[MotorboatJones]

Originally Posted by Supercomputers

Looks like Topps is toying with creating low print level products and we love it but it looks like we’re all going to have to pay to play.

Or, more likely, just not pay or play. I don’t honestly care. I have better things to spend my money on, so I will just continue to opt out more and more. I’m actually fine with this approach.

[Supercomputers]

Originally Posted by MotorboatJones

Or, more likely, just not pay or play. I don’t honestly care. I have better things to spend my money on, so I will just continue to opt out more and more. I’m actually fine with this approach.

Fully understand your case and understand it. But for Topps they are producing 1000 cases on a very desirable limited product, you are not the target market for them on this product.

I would suggest 85% of these were sold 10 boxes at a time in case form.

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by notoriousrmb

Also dreaming if you think Week 1 ebay sales are legit...so much market manipulation going on there.

Another thing that has never actually been proven. In all of my years of buying or selling, and I've done the FOTL/Dutch/Online release pre-sale thing myself, I've never had issues with stuff not getting paid for. No matter how ridiculous the prices or how much stuff has crashed after week 1, it's never been an issue. I'm sure I could go back and find 1. Maybe. But selling 20+ years on eBay if I have to dig that hard to find one time I was screwed then I'm gonna say eBay price manipulation isn't a real thing most of the time.

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by BigRedMachine80

Oh man, are you new to the hobby? All singles are high the first few weeks of a new release and then drop off a cliff. You can set your clock to it.

Unless I misunderstood, what is your definition of a "legit" sale? Notoriusrmb characterized 1st week sales as not being legit. Joe said "we will see".

To me that means not being paid for. If they are paid for, they are legit. Yes the prices drop off a cliff but to say they aren't legitimate if they are paid for doesn't make any sense.

It's not manipulation as much as FOMO and people who are just conditioned to lock in early. This could be for singles or boxes. They buy a Druw Jones chrome for $25 knowing it will be $15 in a week but if it's paid and shipped it's still legit.

[sandyfrank]

I thought about pulling the trigger on one box when it hit 375, tried at 350 of course didn't go through. Thankfully it didn't. Someone on this thread said it would be better to grab a bunch of Bowman Blasters, went to the local Target, they had plenty in stock. Opened one and hit a Roman Anthony Chrome 1st auto and a Caleniero base chrome 1st! A nice consolation prize to not spending 350. Shout out to whoever recommended the blasters!

[BabaORiley]

Originally Posted by CircleTheWagon

2 box lot just sold for $1062. These should settle around $450 is my guess. Me personally, I’d rather rip one of these than a jumbo of regular bowman. The checklist for autos is much better, I’m assuming no junky sticker autos of inserts in sapphire, although I could be wrong. Also, no chance at junky paper autos. The parallels in jumbos are junky /499 green paper and pink/fuschia/purple with lunars and grass and Whatever else these geniuses can toss in there. Just my random opinion. Was there this much hate for Bowman Jumbos this year?

Missing from Sapphire: Spencer Jones, Josue De Paula, Gabriel Gonzalez, Carlos Jorge, Ryan Clifford, Luis Lara, Nelson Rada, Hector Rodriguez, Xavier Isaac, Lazaro Montes, Gleider Figuereo.

I agree that they eliminated a bunch of lower-tier auto guys but regular Bowman has a stellar auto lineup. I'm not at all convinced Druw Jones will be the name that really defines this class and Caminero and Collier are definitely good names but I'd have rather had a lot of these 1st Bowman guys than most of the guys who had their 1sts in 2022 Draft

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

Another thing that has never actually been proven. In all of my years of buying or selling, and I've done the FOTL/Dutch/Online release pre-sale thing myself, I've never had issues with stuff not getting paid for. No matter how ridiculous the prices or how much stuff has crashed after week 1, it's never been an issue. I'm sure I could go back and find 1. Maybe. But selling 20+ years on eBay if I have to dig that hard to find one time I was screwed then I'm gonna say eBay price manipulation isn't a real thing most of the time.

With FOTL especially it's that the ebay sales are so few on almost every release that it's probably not even manipulation. Just a few people got lucky. Look at every FOTL the last year plus. How many sales are there on ebay the first month? Maybe on average a few dozen if that? Out of thousands of boxes. Just because there end up being a few dozen or so decent 2023 Bowman Sapphire ebay sales out of 10,000+ boxes doesn't mean that's the going rate. Just a few people got lucky.

[Wolf359]

Originally Posted by Jolten Joe

Went ahead and threw 2 of the 5 boxes I bought up and in less than 30 min BIN hit and paid for $1,117. 80% ish of the cost of my other 3 boxes @ 425 each.

Can’t tell if you’re really flexing but, didn’t the 2 boxes you sold cost about $800? After eBay fees you take home $950 so you’re netting $150. (Assuming you won’t pay tax on that) you’ve covered 30% of 1 of your other boxes.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Supercomputers]

Originally Posted by Wolf359

Can’t tell if you’re really flexing but, didn’t the 2 boxes you sold cost about $800? After eBay fees you take home $950 so you’re netting $150. (Assuming you won’t pay tax on that) you’ve covered 30% of 1 of your other boxes.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Breakers already paying 4500 a case. With this print run no question its not a 600 Plus box in no time.

[Bcr]

Oh man the pumping is already happening.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by txrngr34

While I don't personally care what people buy, when a large number of people buy widely-considered overpriced products it affects the market and Fanatics continues to overprice everything it thinks it can sell like that.

My belief is that the majority of us here are primarily collectors who prefer spending reasonable money instead of throwing insane money ($350+?!?!) at high-risk/moderate-reward product.

If they sell high-priced products for a profit, they aren't overpriced. There are too many entities that depend on Topps for new products.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by Pacmeyer

You just know the Fanopoly bean counters are kicking themselves that the floor was way too low.

I don't know about kicking themselves, but I do think a good amount of buyers viewed $375 as a trigger to buy. If the floor had been $400, I'm sure plenty of the buyers who purchased at $375 would have also purchased at $425.

The box flippers would have complained even more if the floor had been $400 -- Topps is being greedy! The truth is, there is no material difference between $350 and $400 when it comes to a newly-released limited trading card product. The flippers just rather get a bargain and not have to buy-in at a high price.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by Zauron

I think its hilarious people are trying to justify the pricing and how it should settle at $450/$500. 2022 Bowman Sapphire can be had for less than that cost so this is laughable to me in a way.

The print run was dramatically reduced from last year's iteration and there is more value per box. The OP pointed that out from the jump. That's why people were automatically speculating a much higher retail price from last year.