Does vintage usually go down in price?

[Brando1975]

I just started to get into pre 70s Topps but wanted to get a few options about best time to buy. Does vintage usually go down in price during years we have strong rookie class upcoming?
Basically asking because it sounds like next year will be strong in almost every sport so wondering if it's smart to hold off trying to complete a 69 Topps set?

[oplum29]

buy what makes you happy, that's the best advice.

if you want to complete the 69' Topps set, then do it. don't worry about the current rookie class or anything.

[SpartanWarrior]

Originally Posted by Brando1975

I just started to get into pre 70s Topps but wanted to get a few options about best time to buy. Does vintage usually go down in price during years we have strong rookie class upcoming?
Basically asking because it sounds like next year will be strong in almost every sport so wondering if it's smart to hold off trying to complete a 69 Topps set?

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Not sure why a rookie class would impact 60's baseball cards.

Basically, if you can live with EX cards 60's commons can be had for a song. Outside of a few high number series the cards are readily available and cheap.

If you want to build the set - build the set! Good luck.

[Diver757]

Originally Posted by Brando1975

I just started to get into pre 70s Topps but wanted to get a few options about best time to buy. Does vintage usually go down in price during years we have strong rookie class upcoming?
Basically asking because it sounds like next year will be strong in almost every sport so wondering if it's smart to hold off trying to complete a 69 Topps set?

I get what your asking. You want to know which way them money is flowing. In my opinion, star/HOF'er vintage is running pretty strong right now. Will it start flowing into the next rookie classes next year? Who knows. Buying 60's commons in VG/EX condition currently isn't an issue. You can get whole lots of whatever year for a buck or less a card. HOF'er and high # cards is where you start get into real cash. I need roughly 30 cards to finish my 61 set, but of course the ones I need are all high # and All Star cards. I need a Mantle #578 and can't find one that doesn't look like it was run over by a truck for less than $200. Plus it might be fake if it isn't graded. My advice would be to buy what you can afford. Aim small, miss small.

[rats60]

Most people who collect vintage could care less about ultra modern cards. The only time vintage has dropped was during the 2008-9 recession. I don't see a drop in the near future.

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by rats60

Most people who collect vintage could care less about ultra modern cards. The only time vintage has dropped was during the 2008-9 recession. I don't see a drop in the near future.

I agree with collecting vintage, but unfortunately many ultra-modern collectors are "investing" in vintage now. The crossover is now here and I don't like it.

[Above the Rim]

Now that the big price boom is over, Vintage probably stands a better chance than Modern to keep chugging along with modest price increases. A safe play might be to collect top tier HOFers with nice eye appeal for the grade.

[K111]

Haven't vintage common/minor stars gone down since the 90s? I remember in the 90s it seemed all vintage stuff was hot and had value, now it seems you can get most common and minor stars from the mid 50s thru the 60s for like $1-$10 dollars, even Tobacco cards of non star players I thought were substantially more than what they sell for now, I could be wrong about this it just what I remember, of course the great players especially in slabs and a high grade have remained strong but the non greats seemed to have declined.

[smanzari]

Originally Posted by K111

Haven't vintage common/minor stars gone down since the 90s? I remember in the 90s it seemed all vintage stuff was hot and had value, now it seems you can get most common and minor stars from the mid 50s thru the 60s for like $1-$10 dollars, even Tobacco cards of non star players I thought were substantially more than what they sell for now, I could be wrong about this it just what I remember, of course the great players especially in slabs and a high grade have remained strong but the non greats seemed to have declined.

No, They're slowly trending up

I remember buying t206 commons (Poor - VG) for $5-20, depending, as well as 1952 commons in dollar boxes not too terribly long ago

[oplum29]

Originally Posted by Above the Rim

Now that the big price boom is over, Vintage probably stands a better chance than Modern to keep chugging along with modest price increases. A safe play might be to collect top tier HOFers with nice eye appeal for the grade.

agreed! add iconic vintage cards to your list if you can't afford their rookies.

[Jerseyramfan]

I personally find it harder to find vintage showing up at the shows I attend here in NJ. I do collect only vintage football HOF rookies. On Sunday I attended a 100 table show and I would say there was only eight tables that had vintage cards. Of them only 2 were football. I did pick up a PSA 4 1965 Topps tall boy of Fred Biletnikoff for $280 and the asking price was $325. Where I am here in Northern NJ I can bargain with football rookies that seem to beat Ebay prices.

[oplum29]

Originally Posted by Jerseyramfan

I personally find it harder to find vintage showing up at the shows I attend here in NJ. I do collect only vintage football HOF rookies. On Sunday I attended a 100 table show and I would say there was only eight tables that had vintage cards. Of them only 2 were football. I did pick up a PSA 4 1965 Topps tall boy of Fred Biletnikoff for $280 and the asking price was $325. Where I am here in Northern NJ I can bargain with football rookies that seem to beat Ebay prices.

when it comes to vintage, baseball is king. and it's not even close.

at these shows, these people want to make money, so if you're saying that out of roughly 100 tables, only 8 had vintage, that makes a ton of sense.

all this new money and new school collectors/investors want the new stuff. mahomes, curry, lebron, zion, lamelo, julio rodriguez, etc

it's a never ending cycle. it's like those kids who grew up in the 80's dropping hundreds into Mattingly, Strawberry, and Canseco over the stars of the 60's.

i'll take vintage and/or modern-vintage over current stuff any day of the week.

[Neal]

Originally Posted by oplum29

i'll take vintage and/or modern-vintage over current stuff any day of the week.

That depends ....

First, I am a vintage collector. I also like modern. And a little ultra modern. And everything in between.

Each era is different, however, and guessing what to accumulate is never 100%. Certain vintage cards are nice and steady, but not most. I also can see vintage dropping, save the usual suspects

I'd also take a numbered Mahomes RC or 90s Jordan or Griffey insert over many vintage cards any day of the week

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[jchcollins]

Vintage generally holds its value and then ticks slowly upwards over the decades, outside of bubbles and busts. For example during the early pandemic bubble, many marquee vintage cards took off. Though things have settled down now, many of those cards have not fallen back down to their former lows. I have more than a few Mantle cards that doubled in value in the last 3+ years. They may not be selling for their record pandemic highs now, but they aren't selling for what they did in 2019 anymore, either.

[Rictor]

If you think we are at the beginning of a recession and the economy is going to get much worse before it gets better, I would say prices on ALL collectibles may go down again, like they did in 2008-9.

If you think we're coming out of the recession, prices may be heading up.

Personally, I think the economy is probably on the way down still. Stocks are low but could go lower. Unemployment is low in general, but the highest paying tech companies are laying people off like crazy.

Inflation combined with high paying jobs being replaced with low paying jobs may see luxury items like collectibles crash. The only reason they didn't crash during the pandemic is that Americans went millions of dollars into debt spending money on their hobbies because they were bored at home. The question is, will all these people stay in the hobby now that they can't make money hoarding cards from retail?

I still see guys at the local flea markets with retail blasters at 100% markup. I don't know about your area, but Wal-Mart, Meijer, and Target here have shelves full of product again. I'm even seeing clearance blaster boxes again at $15 at Wal-Mart and Meijer.

[Above the Rim]

Had my eye on a '69 Ryan PSA 8 - ebay last night. Over 3200. oh my ! Nicely centered but did have that black frame line break upper right area.

[SpartanWarrior]

Originally Posted by K111

Haven't vintage common/minor stars gone down since the 90s? I remember in the 90s it seemed all vintage stuff was hot and had value, now it seems you can get most common and minor stars from the mid 50s thru the 60s for like $1-$10 dollars, even Tobacco cards of non star players I thought were substantially more than what they sell for now, I could be wrong about this it just what I remember, of course the great players especially in slabs and a high grade have remained strong but the non greats seemed to have declined.

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I agree with this - adjusted for condition. In the late 80's/early 90's lots of cards were being sold as NRMT. But in fact they were EX. Those same EX common cards (not Mantle, Clemente, Mays, Aaron, Robinson) are about the same price. True NRMT/MT cards are more.

T206's are much more. In the early 90's you could get Mcgraw finger in air T206 G-VG for $40, VG-EX $50-60. VG Cobbs were in the 300-500 range. VG commons were in the $15-20 range. Now a graded VG is in the $100+ range.

One big difference is that lots of stuff that was available in the early 90's is simply not going to be seen at shows today. E107's, T215's, etc are rarely seen outside of major auction houses or a few vintage dealers. As a result those prices have gone way up. Same is true for a lot of strip cards - they could be bought for a song in the 80's.

You also have to keep in mind inflation. Adjusted for inflation lots of 1960's non-premium cards are cheaper now than they were in the early 90's.

[Wisztradamous]

Originally Posted by Jerseyramfan

I personally find it harder to find vintage showing up at the shows I attend here in NJ. I do collect only vintage football HOF rookies. On Sunday I attended a 100 table show and I would say there was only eight tables that had vintage cards. Of them only 2 were football. I did pick up a PSA 4 1965 Topps tall boy of Fred Biletnikoff for $280 and the asking price was $325. Where I am here in Northern NJ I can bargain with football rookies that seem to beat Ebay prices.

I grew up collecting in the 90s and I HATE the Modern Cards now. I collect Vintage Football and that feels safe and not much fluctuation. As for Vintage, I went to my first Sports Card show last year (Shriners Show - Wilmington, MA) and if you want Vintage and you're from NJ, this might be worth a weekend trip for the annual show. There are about 280 tables and I would have to say 80% were Vintage. I mean, there was all types and some very high end. Two tables had exclusively 1952 Topps Baseball and a couple other guys had about 6 tables and about 4 - '52 Topps Mantles (seen about 8 total that day), some Gretzky Rookies, Jack Johnson cards and everything in between.

They have CSG and BGS on site grading.

Just some info for everyone.

[Diver757]

Originally Posted by SpartanWarrior

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I agree with this - adjusted for condition. In the late 80's/early 90's lots of cards were being sold as NRMT. But in fact they were EX. Those same EX common cards (not Mantle, Clemente, Mays, Aaron, Robinson) are about the same price. True NRMT/MT cards are more.

T206's are much more. In the early 90's you could get Mcgraw finger in air T206 G-VG for $40, VG-EX $50-60. VG Cobbs were in the 300-500 range. VG commons were in the $15-20 range. Now a graded VG is in the $100+ range.

One big difference is that lots of stuff that was available in the early 90's is simply not going to be seen at shows today. E107's, T215's, etc are rarely seen outside of major auction houses or a few vintage dealers. As a result those prices have gone way up. Same is true for a lot of strip cards - they could be bought for a song in the 80's.

You also have to keep in mind inflation. Adjusted for inflation lots of 1960's non-premium cards are cheaper now than they were in the early 90's.

Certainly agree with the last part. I've been chipping away at a 61 set for almost 40 years. The commons in the mid 80's were $2-3 each. You can pay that now. That's about $.75 a card in todays money.

[corndog]

I pick up vintage cards here and there and most of them are in fair condition or worse.
I like to hold them in my hand just like kids did years ago.

If I can pick up a 1940 Play Ball for a couple of bucks I am happy with that.

I am enjoying vintage cards.

I am not looking to flip.

[vintg]

Originally Posted by jchcollins

Vintage generally holds its value and then ticks slowly upwards over the decades, outside of bubbles and busts. For example during the early pandemic bubble, many marquee vintage cards took off. Though things have settled down now, many of those cards have not fallen back down to their former lows. I have more than a few Mantle cards that doubled in value in the last 3+ years. They may not be selling for their record pandemic highs now, but they aren't selling for what they did in 2019 anymore, either.

+1

i have approx. 30 graded mantles, and i'm "up" in value on every single one of them.

granted, alot of them i bought 2-4 years ago.

mays, aaron, j.robinson, williams, koufax, banks and clemente not that far behind (mantle), lol.

[Diver757]

Originally Posted by vintg

+1

i have approx. 30 graded mantles, and i'm "up" in value on every single one of them.

granted, alot of them i bought 2-4 years ago.

mays, aaron, j.robinson, williams, koufax, banks and clemente not that far behind (mantle), lol.

Vintage really does seem like it's on the rise. I thought I found a honey hole
in the corner where no one was looking last night on eBay, and every card I tried to grab got snapped up last second by the same 3 bidders, for well over recent comps for those cards.

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by SpartanWarrior

I agree with this - adjusted for condition. In the late 80's/early 90's lots of cards were being sold as NRMT. But in fact they were EX. Those same EX common cards (not Mantle, Clemente, Mays, Aaron, Robinson) are about the same price. True NRMT/MT cards are more.

Not exactly. Yes the standards have gotten tougher over time, even though the grading descriptions for each technical standard with PSA might not have changed much if at all since the 1990's. But many cards that were really considered "Mint" or NM in say 1988 would not grade nearly as high today, maybe only EX or EX-MT. People back in the day also seemed to have more reasonable expectations. Though very commonly misunderstood, the Beckett Monthly guide ranges (Hi to Low) for vintage cards were for EX-MT range cards, not NM or higher, at least in the 1980's and 90's. A true "EX-MT" card back then was thought to be in pretty good condition for the 1960's and earlier.

It was only a matter of time with PSA in the early 90's before David Hall and others learned how to make a buck with card grading the same as they had done earlier with coin grading. Subtly adjusting the standards in practice, grading easy for a bit, grading tough for a bit - all without changing the written standards is how all the TPG's slowly began to manipulate both buyers and prices. Don't like your grade? Oh, submit again! We'll gladly take your money and if you do it enough times, your grade might actually get bumped. It's kind of come full-circle today, with some grading companies having up to four different standards just for "Mint" cards. (Mint, Mint+, Gem, Pristine - in the case of SGC. Really?) How much of this huge difference can really be seen by the naked eye, and how much of it is just a pissing contest with boasting about your flips? I'm going to guess that virtually none of the way I grew up grading is comparable with vintage today, when many 7's or 8's now would have easily been considered "Mint" all day long by dealers in the 1980's. Professional grading served a purpose when it first came about, but I think many of the players today have easily outgrown their original britches.

[oplum29]

Originally Posted by jchcollins

Not exactly. Yes the standards have gotten tougher over time, even though the grading descriptions for each technical standard with PSA might not have changed much if at all since the 1990's. But many cards that were really considered "Mint" or NM in say 1988 would not grade nearly as high today, maybe only EX or EX-MT. People back in the day also seemed to have more reasonable expectations. Though very commonly misunderstood, the Beckett Monthly guide ranges (Hi to Low) for vintage cards were for EX-MT range cards, not NM or higher, at least in the 1980's and 90's. A true "EX-MT" card back then was thought to be in pretty good condition for the 1960's and earlier.

It was only a matter of time with PSA in the early 90's before David Hall and others learned how to make a buck with card grading the same as they had done earlier with coin grading. Subtly adjusting the standards in practice, grading easy for a bit, grading tough for a bit - all without changing the written standards is how all the TPG's slowly began to manipulate both buyers and prices. Don't like your grade? Oh, submit again! We'll gladly take your money and if you do it enough times, your grade might actually get bumped. It's kind of come full-circle today, with some grading companies having up to four different standards just for "Mint" cards. (Mint, Mint+, Gem, Pristine - in the case of SGC. Really?) How much of this huge difference can really be seen by the naked eye, and how much of it is just a pissing contest with boasting about your flips? I'm going to guess that virtually none of the way I grew up grading is comparable with vintage today, when many 7's or 8's now would have easily been considered "Mint" all day long by dealers in the 1980's. Professional grading served a purpose when it first came about, but I think many of the players today have easily outgrown their original britches.

yup! in reality, i think dealers back in the day, before grading came out, were really tough on themselves. honestly.

if they saw mint or perfect, (corners, edges, surface, and centering is solid), you were asking for full book value.

near mint was like 75-80% of full book.

right now, mint is insane. Drew Bledsoe 1993 SP PSA 10...$750. 9, maybe $50. 8 is $20. raw is maybe $5.

buy the $5 rookie and save the other $745 for other vintage stuff. it's crazy.

[oplum29]

Originally Posted by Diver757

Vintage really does seem like it's on the rise. I thought I found a honey hole
in the corner where no one was looking last night on eBay, and every card I tried to grab got snapped up last second by the same 3 bidders, for well over recent comps for those cards.

all the vintage i bought pre-COVID or during COVID but before the pump, have gone up in value.

DiMaggio rookie, is double what i paid for it. Clemente rookie same. Unitas rookie. Starr rookie. Namath rookie. Brooks Robinson rookie. you name it, all the vintage i've bought has double in valued or more.

compare that to what the prices of even Tom Brady cards have done, and it's insane.