Observations on the current state of the hobby from a show this weekend

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Jesus guys. Economies in recession don't create 375,000 jobs a month and see wages rising like crazy.

Job creation numbers are very unreliable, since they offer no data about the quality of said jobs, or the wages being paid.

[rainmaker]

No question about it there is more heat now than we have seen in quite some time. Shows, eBay, board… sales and interest is picking back up. I’m hesitant to say it’s here to stay but cautiously optimistic we are basically at the bottom and beginning the climb back to normalcy. It had to happen things are net positive overall.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by rainmaker

No question about it there is more heat now than we have seen in quite some time. Shows, eBay, board… sales and interest is picking back up. I’m hesitant to say it’s here to stay but cautiously optimistic we are basically at the bottom and beginning the climb back to normalcy. It had to happen things are net positive overall.

Is normalcy the pandemic pump?

[thenightman]

Originally Posted by JRX

That's because you've only known a world where the us dollar was the worlds reserve currency.

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Do you know how much would need to happen, all at once, for that not to be the case?

[thenightman]

Originally Posted by rainmaker

No question about it there is more heat now than we have seen in quite some time. Shows, eBay, board… sales and interest is picking back up. I’m hesitant to say it’s here to stay but cautiously optimistic we are basically at the bottom and beginning the climb back to normalcy. It had to happen things are net positive overall.

I'm about to have the best month I've ever had and that's saying something.

[rainmaker]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Is normalcy the pandemic pump?

No it’s 2019

[TooManyCards76]

Originally Posted by thenightman

I'm about to have the best month I've ever had and that's saying something.

In the past week I’ve sold over $5k on eBay with most of those cards that have been listed for 3+ months. And I’ve had quite a few decent offers on a few $1k+ cards, not enough to accept, but it was nice to see real offers and not lowballs I’m cautiously optimistic about the future. And the culture collision show in Atlanta had heavy foot traffic when I was there Saturday, sadly a lot of overpriced stuff but there were just as many tables with deals

[hermanotarjeta]

I can’t seem to win any of the auctions for the cards i’m bidding on, not even the buy it now’s!

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

I can’t seem to win any of the auctions for the cards i’m bidding on, not even the buy it now’s!

thats cause the hobby iz ded

[rainmaker]

I just went pretty aggressive (bid over any recent comp) at a card which would have been the most I have spent in over 2 years (>3k) and was blown out of the water. Off by many hundreds of dollars.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by rainmaker

I just went pretty aggressive (bid over any recent comp) at a card which would have been the most I have spent in over 2 years (>3k) and was blown out of the water. Off by many hundreds of dollars.

Julio Heritage Gold Refractor??? That went well higher than I thought it would


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[MoreToppsPlease]

Market manipulation remains a constant.

[rainmaker]

Originally Posted by pewe

Julio Heritage Gold Refractor??? That went well higher than I thought it would


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No it was a prewar card which is a completely different market than modern but still surprisingly high sale.

[rainmaker]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

Market manipulation remains a constant.

I don’t believe it’s manipulation I think it’s simply a few more eyes on each card than we have seen in the past 12-18 months.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by rainmaker

I don’t believe it’s manipulation I think it’s simply a few more eyes on each card than we have seen in the past 12-18 months.

its been said he knows all about it.

[rainmaker]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

its been said he knows all about it.

Ah my bad

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by rainmaker

Ah my bad

Now you’re being manipulated. But anyone who doesn’t think card prices aren’t manipulated really deserves to lose money buying and selling cards, especially those that are volatile in price.

[vintg]

Originally Posted by rainmaker

No question about it there is more heat now than we have seen in quite some time. Shows, eBay, board… sales and interest is picking back up. I’m hesitant to say it’s here to stay but cautiously optimistic we are basically at the bottom and beginning the climb back to normalcy. It had to happen things are net positive overall.

orland park (chicago suburbs) show JAMMED

ALOT of vintage , was pretty great all around.

picked up a '71 aaron, scg 4.5 dead centered. and 2 2nd year walter paytons

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

No, no. I asked YOU to objectively define a recession. Don’t link me to a vague subjective definition.

It’s a pretty easy ask.

We have a governing body that determines whether there was a recession or not. No need for me to give any definition. It's about as valuable as me defining a home run.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by FT35

Love discussing cards with you…but this is a Joey Gallo-level swing and miss take. What’s the industry for these “jobs?” Are these high or low-level jobs? Temp/contract work or full-time employment? Project/business investment or inventory-based…In other words—what’s the return on the hire? Does it promote business growth—better yet, sustain it? How many of these “375,000” are tomorrow’s layoffs? Are these skilled workers who boost revenue or simply bodies to bring in low markup margin work? Does low margin work support these “higher wages” long term? Take the Uber drivers out, how many new jobs are left? Are these 2nd jobs for the “already employed” to just deal with the current cost of living? Retirees forced to go back to work because their retirement savings is completely gone? Any people just working the unemployment system? Are these private sector positions or worse—new government jobs that we are actually paying for?!

The jobs number itself really means nothing without the bigger picture context. Nothing we are seeing indicates any health in the economy. All indicators point to an economy on life support.

Some of those questions are maybe worth asking, some are nonsense. Your final take is ludicrous. I wouldn't say this is a boom economy, but it's closer to that than a bust. In 50 years the historians are going to look back on 2022 and say "WTF was everybody talking about, is this a recession?"

I go back to the glory days of 2013-2019 and remember people complaining about the economy. I said, no no. we are in a boom. The grass is always greener somewhere else. Things could be better, but they could also be much, much worse.

Originally Posted by mfw13

Job creation numbers are very unreliable, since they offer no data about the quality of said jobs, or the wages being paid.

This kind of hits the nail why a lot of people think the economy is not good. The biggest growth has been at the bottom of the income distribution. The top (ie the group that gets all of the press...including the press) has actually been somewhat hurt. That is a very good thing, IMO (especially because I'm towards the bottom). It makes up for 20 years of too much "health" at the top.

My final thought on jobs; if you think the economy isn't creating enough jobs right now....you ought to try and hire somebody.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

We have a governing body that determines whether there was a recession or not. No need for me to give any definition. It's about as valuable as me defining a home run.

Do you want to at least retract your jobs claim?

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Do you want to at least retract your jobs claim?

No. My jobs claim is correct.

[rwperu34]

I've got one more thing to say about jobs. Some of you ask what type of jobs are being created? The answer to that question is it doesn't matter. Every single job needs to be filled. For every doctor you need a truck driver, a school teacher, a grocery clerk, a fast food worker, a janitor, and 17 lawyers.

Here is the key that doesn't seem to be understood by some. It works the other way too. A janitor is going to eat fast food, go to the grocery store, send their kids to school (if they don't go themselves!), needs truck drivers, and will go to the doctor.

So what type of jobs are being created? It. Does. Not. Matter.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

No. My jobs claim is correct.

It’s not, but instead of helping you out again, I’ll let you linger in your ignorance.

[Raleigh504]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

It’s not, but instead of helping you out again, I’ll let you linger in your ignorance.

This is like talking to my cousin's fiancé... because the 0.0000000001% time something has ever happened means it is the norm to her (to fit her argument) and the other 99.999999+% is an anomaly or doesn't count.