First Buzz: 2022 Bowman Draft baseball cards

[Greenbee]

Originally Posted by Slvnumber2

Better buy - jumbo or super jumbo for value and hits? Thank you.

same question here and is fanatics going to drop super jumbo?

[Mj4au]

You have a 90% chance of getting crushed with both.

Go watch breaks, tons of case breaks available. $4k cases hitting $400 in cards.

[BayAreaChris]

Originally Posted by Greenbee

same question here and is fanatics going to drop super jumbo?

Someone mentioned earlier you can buy super jumbo via a rep for $700 plus tax. No gift cards though.

[OneSickDegen]

Originally Posted by Slvnumber2

Better buy - jumbo or super jumbo for value and hits? Thank you.

Neither because once you open either, you'll lose about 90% of your buyin. Just put $500 on black at your local casinuh

[Stein316]

The one thing I don’t like about Bowman Draft is that it doesn’t follow Bowman and Bowman Chrome with the base silver refractors /499. They aren’t numbered and possibly print them into oblivion.

Does anyone know the possible print run of the Draft base silver refractors of each prospect?

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Stein316

The one thing I don’t like about Bowman Draft is that it doesn’t follow Bowman and Bowman Chrome with the base silver refractors /499. They aren’t numbered and possibly print them into oblivion.

Does anyone know the possible print run of the Draft base silver refractors of each prospect?

A lot. But that’s what makes them great. They are not devalued proportionally.

[Stech36]

Originally Posted by Mj4au

You have a 90% chance of getting crushed with both.

Go watch breaks, tons of case breaks available. $4k cases hitting $400 in cards.

Originally Posted by OneSickDegen

Neither because once you open either, you'll lose about 90% of your buyin. Just put $500 on black at your local casinuh

I literally don’t think it would be possible to open a box of this and lose 90% value

[VandyCards]

Anyone see any Dylan Beavers autos yet? I know it’s early but safe to say SP?


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[baseballbunez]

Originally Posted by VandyCards

Anyone see any Dylan Beavers autos yet? I know it’s early but safe to say SP?


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I pulled a Beavers base auto redemption out of jumbo

[Badgers0821]

Originally Posted by VandyCards

Anyone see any Dylan Beavers autos yet? I know it’s early but safe to say SP?


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After one day? Relax

[POKTRITON]

Originally Posted by Mj4au

You have a 90% chance of getting crushed with both.

Go watch breaks, tons of case breaks available. $4k cases hitting $400 in cards.

I’d love to see that case. I’ve seen a ton opened so far and nothing like that. Sure you have a chance to get crushed in any product. I guess if you don’t like the price point or don’t understand the product don’t go near it. Save it for me

[marterburn]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

A lot. But that’s what makes them great. They are not devalued proportionally.

Yeah that's my stance too. Probably my favorite part about Draft in a general sense.

I even noted that in my P1500 piece!

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[jsatx]

Originally Posted by Stein316

The one thing I don’t like about Bowman Draft is that it doesn’t follow Bowman and Bowman Chrome with the base silver refractors /499. They aren’t numbered and possibly print them into oblivion.

Does anyone know the possible print run of the Draft base silver refractors of each prospect?

As mentioned above, a lot more than 499. Last year I think they were around 13,000.

[Nung2019]

Originally Posted by baseballbunez

I pulled a Beavers base auto redemption out of jumbo

Wish I could pull some beaver

[Mj4au]

Originally Posted by POKTRITON

I’d love to see that case. I’ve seen a ton opened so far and nothing like that. Sure you have a chance to get crushed in any product. I guess if you don’t like the price point or don’t understand the product don’t go near it. Save it for me

How many cases have you opened, and where are the videos?? I understand the product just fine and historically love Bowman Draft, just not blinded by the light...

Cade Marlowe color doesn't make a $4k case worth $400...
Jackson Holliday Base Chrome will not continue to sell for $25...

The losses are comical

[erock28]

Originally Posted by reddragonthe

Wasn't Holliday like 30k across the 100 cases?

As for valuation...

I haven't done the math, but let's say that there are going to be 15,000 cases and there are 100 super autos. The 100 case break is .67% of that PR... so a 1/150 shot at the Holliday Super Auto. Right in your range.

Gives us a valuation on the bounty of $1300.

You are probably looking at an estimate of lets say 20 autos if all are equal (and they've had a legit pattern of NOT giving you equal volume of some top guys). I think that's probably the biggest assumption here... and if they are SP'd, everything below is out the window.

Of that we'll pretend half are base, half are something else (reasonably consistent with pack odds of last few releases).

And we'll use a color multiplier of 2.3 (that is, each "auto" is worth 2.3x what you think a base is worth assuming some value multipliers for each parallel and their relative odds to hit) - obvious an over estimate for the "base" you hit, but that is made up for in the average color chance.

So that's 46x base auto price of "value" in autos. If you think that's a $300 base auto, that's ~$14k EV of autos. If it's a $200 base auto? $9k. $500? $23k.

I think it would be about even odds to hit a "gold or better" in the break. You hit more than 1? Things look better. You hit less than 1? Not ideal. 0-3 all seem like they would be "non outlier" outcomes looking at the expected ~100+ gold or better prospect autos.

So if we take the bounty plus a 14k EV for autos (raw)... you get to about 50% of the spot price. And that's actually probably not too bad relative to other spots if you extrapolate that out. Leaves you some room to make up... but with grading (potentially) and a little luck it's possible.

To me the bounty at 10% of that valuation for 100 cases is interesting but probably wouldn't change my decision making on any of them.

So I actually did the math on this...slow Friday morning . Using the pack odds of 1:325 for orange and 1:109 for black (jumbo only), there are roughly 8,650 jumbo cases. Assuming super autos are 100% split evenly between jumbo and SJ, 68/102 Supers are in jumbo, or exactly 2/3. I assumed then that 2/3 of all color (save for jumbo only orange/black) are in jumbo. I had to back into the number of base autos based on total pack odds, and assuming no SPs. Once I had all of that, I used the logic above to split out the odds of a 100 jumbo case break. I applied a color multiplier I found on Google (was on Blowout at one point) to each specific color. I only modified the Super multiplier as I felt it was way too high. The rest look decent enough...maybe a liiiiiiittle high on the low numbered stuff, but up to gold looked very solid.

The results - you could expect almost 19 total autos, 10.12 of which are base or refractor. 1.22 are gold or better (includes print plates). If the base auto is $100, the spot expected value would be $6,321. That can be used incrementally, so a $500 base auto would yield EV of $31,606 - or going the other way a $10 base auto would yield EV of $632. Thanks reddragonthe for getting me into this...gave me something fun to do today!

[marterburn]

Originally Posted by Mj4au

How many cases have you opened, and where are the videos?? I understand the product just fine and historically love Bowman Draft, just not blinded by the light...



Cade Marlowe color doesn't make a $4k case worth $400...

Jackson Holliday Base Chrome will not continue to sell for $25...



The losses are comical

1. Cade Marlowe isn't in this product.
2. The base Chrome set is likely to settle ~$200-225. The paper set likely ~$75. You get one Chrome set, usually very close to 2 in every case. You get several paper sets. That's also not the most efficient way to sell base singles.

So JUST in that, you're assessment is significantly off.

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[Mj4au]

Originally Posted by marterburn

1. Cade Marlowe isn't in this product.
2. The base Chrome set is likely to settle ~$200-225. The paper set likely ~$75. You get one Chrome set, usually very close to 2 in every case. You get several paper sets. That's also not the most efficient way to sell base singles.

So JUST in that, you're assessment is significantly off.

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Marlowe is an exaggeration of the current stupidity. Cool - Fill up your cart of base sets

[Oriole Way]

Originally Posted by Stein316

The one thing I don’t like about Bowman Draft is that it doesn’t follow Bowman and Bowman Chrome with the base silver refractors /499. They aren’t numbered and possibly print them into oblivion.

Does anyone know the possible print run of the Draft base silver refractors of each prospect?

Bowman Draft base refractors (which aren't called "silver", by the way - that's more of a basketball/football Prizm term) shouldn't be compared to /499 refractors (which aren't base, by the way) from Bowman and Bowman Chrome.

BD base refractors are comparable to base mega box/mojo refractors from Bowman and Bowman Chrome.

/499 refractors from Bowman and Bowman Chrome are much more rare than Bowman Draft base refractors, and the /499 refractors also are way more valuable price-wise.

[fireballmike]

Originally Posted by Stein316

The one thing I don’t like about Bowman Draft is that it doesn’t follow Bowman and Bowman Chrome with the base silver refractors /499. They aren’t numbered and possibly print them into oblivion.

Does anyone know the possible print run of the Draft base silver refractors of each prospect?

Just going off the Jumbo and Super Jumbo pack odds you will get 1 base refractor for every 3 base chrome cards, so yes, they are printed into oblivion at the rate of one third of the base chrome print run.

[PDCCollectibles]

Originally Posted by marterburn

1. Cade Marlowe isn't in this product.
2. The base Chrome set is likely to settle ~$200-225. The paper set likely ~$75. You get one Chrome set, usually very close to 2 in every case. You get several paper sets. That's also not the most efficient way to sell base singles.

So JUST in that, you're assessment is significantly off.

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I pre sell Bowman Draft Chrome and Paper sets every year....works out nicely and Draft has never let me down for years. Are some prospects going to jump, sure....but that's the chance you take. Amazed what sets go for now compared to 4-5 years ago.

[dfresh559]

Any opinion on the Super Jumbos compared to Jumbos?

[Rooftop]

Originally Posted by dfresh559

Any opinion on the Super Jumbos compared to Jumbos?

Both are overpriced trash

[pinnacle06]

Just hit a DeLauter red lava in a break. Woo woo

[skirk1]

Just did a 2 x Jumbo case player break and the 1st case had 5 autos/box instead of 3! So an extra 16 autos. However there we no non auto #d chrome paralells in that case. Second case was back to normal. Even pulled 1/1 black paper. Here is a link to the video. 1st case crazy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANGTw1ntgQs&t=281s