First Buzz: 2022 Bowman Draft baseball cards

[johnlocke36]

Do we have any rough ideas on print run for this. Just looking over the bounty, Holliday seems quite a big larger vs field compared to what’s he’s goin for in 100 caser. I’d guess it’s somewhere in the .5 - 1% range to pull it in 100 cases (or is it much worse). If that’s the case and 2k equity from suoerfractor and tempted to gamble and try to hit 9k of autos in 100 cases. Even at that price though would prob be tough without something big

[NCWolf]

Originally Posted by Grave252

This looks like it could be a tough sell for breakers. I follow a couple breakers on Facebook with solid followings, and both random team and PYT breaks not filling instantly, and hanging for hours.

The gambling crew is tapped out after Chrome, and this release is simply too close timing wise. Checklist aside, there’d be a lot more buzz if this was releasing in a couple months. It’s also overpriced as mentioned.

Usually breakers get a couple weeks of steady demand, but this appears like a slow moving product.

What's a good price for the product?

[OneSickDegen]

Originally Posted by NCWolf

What's a good price for the product?

$250/box

[Stech36]

Originally Posted by OneSickDegen

$250/box

Every case would be profitable at that price at release.

$350 is probably a good true good price for it.

[JAM061200]

Originally Posted by Stech36

Every case would be profitable at that price at release.

$350 is probably a good true good price for it.

This is for Jumbo? What about Super Jumbo?

[Stech36]

Originally Posted by JAM061200

This is for Jumbo? What about Super Jumbo?

I’ve never done a case of that, so hard for me to give a good answer

[Nung2019]

Anyone busting some today? I’m jealous and having FOMO since I normally do

[NCWolf]

Anyone have the odds on pulling an auto from a lite box?

[Yanks23]

fyi i think direct cost was moved up to like jumbo $370 and super $475. fanatics / topps raised direct cost on all recent products to take a lot of the profit out of direct customers.

[OneSickDegen]

Originally Posted by Stech36

Every case would be profitable at that price at release.

$350 is probably a good true good price for it.

Still somewhat high IMO. I think we could split the difference and $100/auto is probably a decent baseline especially in this market.

[Bcr]

Sucks but I'm sitting this one out. I'll just pickup singles when the bloodbath is over

[reddragonthe]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

Do we have any rough ideas on print run for this. Just looking over the bounty, Holliday seems quite a big larger vs field compared to what’s he’s goin for in 100 caser. I’d guess it’s somewhere in the .5 - 1% range to pull it in 100 cases (or is it much worse). If that’s the case and 2k equity from suoerfractor and tempted to gamble and try to hit 9k of autos in 100 cases. Even at that price though would prob be tough without something big

Wasn't Holliday like 30k across the 100 cases?

As for valuation...

I haven't done the math, but let's say that there are going to be 15,000 cases and there are 100 super autos. The 100 case break is .67% of that PR... so a 1/150 shot at the Holliday Super Auto. Right in your range.

Gives us a valuation on the bounty of $1300.

You are probably looking at an estimate of lets say 20 autos if all are equal (and they've had a legit pattern of NOT giving you equal volume of some top guys). I think that's probably the biggest assumption here... and if they are SP'd, everything below is out the window.

Of that we'll pretend half are base, half are something else (reasonably consistent with pack odds of last few releases).

And we'll use a color multiplier of 2.3 (that is, each "auto" is worth 2.3x what you think a base is worth assuming some value multipliers for each parallel and their relative odds to hit) - obvious an over estimate for the "base" you hit, but that is made up for in the average color chance.

So that's 46x base auto price of "value" in autos. If you think that's a $300 base auto, that's ~$14k EV of autos. If it's a $200 base auto? $9k. $500? $23k.

I think it would be about even odds to hit a "gold or better" in the break. You hit more than 1? Things look better. You hit less than 1? Not ideal. 0-3 all seem like they would be "non outlier" outcomes looking at the expected ~100+ gold or better prospect autos.

So if we take the bounty plus a 14k EV for autos (raw)... you get to about 50% of the spot price. And that's actually probably not too bad relative to other spots if you extrapolate that out. Leaves you some room to make up... but with grading (potentially) and a little luck it's possible.

To me the bounty at 10% of that valuation for 100 cases is interesting but probably wouldn't change my decision making on any of them.

[Boredlawyer]

Originally Posted by reddragonthe

Wasn't Holliday like 30k across the 100 cases?

As for valuation...

I haven't done the math, but let's say that there are going to be 15,000 cases and there are 100 super autos. The 100 case break is .67% of that PR... so a 1/150 shot at the Holliday Super Auto. Right in your range.

Gives us a valuation on the bounty of $1300.

You are probably looking at an estimate of lets say 20 autos if all are equal (and they've had a legit pattern of NOT giving you equal volume of some top guys). I think that's probably the biggest assumption here... and if they are SP'd, everything below is out the window.

Of that we'll pretend half are base, half are something else (reasonably consistent with pack odds of last few releases).

And we'll use a color multiplier of 2.3 (that is, each "auto" is worth 2.3x what you think a base is worth assuming some value multipliers for each parallel and their relative odds to hit) - obvious an over estimate for the "base" you hit, but that is made up for in the average color chance.

So that's 46x base auto price of "value" in autos. If you think that's a $300 base auto, that's ~$14k EV of autos. If it's a $200 base auto? $9k. $500? $23k.

I think it would be about even odds to hit a "gold or better" in the break. You hit more than 1? Things look better. You hit less than 1? Not ideal. 0-3 all seem like they would be "non outlier" outcomes looking at the expected ~100+ gold or better prospect autos.

So if we take the bounty plus a 14k EV for autos (raw)... you get to about 50% of the spot price. And that's actually probably not too bad relative to other spots if you extrapolate that out. Leaves you some room to make up... but with grading (potentially) and a little luck it's possible.

To me the bounty at 10% of that valuation for 100 cases is interesting but probably wouldn't change my decision making on any of them.

Thank you for breaking out the math. This is a good analysis that anyone looking at Bowman breaks should be using.

[erock28]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

Thank you for breaking out the math. This is a good analysis that anyone looking at Bowman breaks should be using.

Agreed to both points. Unfortunately I think the gambler mentality of "I'm gonna be one of the lucky ones" would make people skip this very helpful breakdown and dive in anyways at prices that blow away expected value.

[phil]

Jumbos up at $450, $3420 case no Lite yet

[oldgoldy97]

Originally Posted by phil

Jumbos up at $450, $3420 case no Lite yet

Lite is next week?

[IND2FLA]

Has anyone seen pack odds yet?

[JAM061200]

Originally Posted by phil

Jumbos up at $450, $3420 case no Lite yet

Are the super jumbos a separate release?

[NCWolf]

$450 is a joke

[dbodbodbo]

First time I am out since 2015. Literally can't justify this. You can pick up a Mayer or Lawlar color auto for less than a jumbo box. The pricing only caters to breakers. I'm over it.

[theshowandme]

[crownand]

Topps website is same price as all the online card shops. Whhhaaaaaat?!?

[hermanotarjeta]

This may be the first time in history that you put away a sealed case of bowman draft and actually lose money when you try to sell later.

[Allamericancard]

we miswell call topps what it is....fanatics lol fanatics pricing has always been atrocious and now that they are calling the shots, topps aka fanatics will be too

[theshowandme]

$450 for a box of junk just 4 days before Christmas

This product HAS to sit for a while on the site, right?

Who in their right mind is paying these prices?