Pricing INSANITY

[Pacmeyer]

Originally Posted by mattglet

I collect cards. This is a hobby, I don't really care about value for resale.

Originally Posted by mattglet

Show me boxes of anything 1983 and older from Topps... those are collectibles and retain value.

So which is it? You care about value or you don't?

Originally Posted by mattglet

What I see are some wax "collectors" trying to defend their "investments" as being infallible and cannot lose value. Which is absolutely laughable.

And on top of that, when confronted they conveniently skip past the logic presented to them.

You have no idea on here who's a wax investor versus a wax collector.

What's amusing is that you continually misunderstand the concept of a collectible. Collecting is not about cold hard logic. If it was, people would not be collecting all the junk that they do.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by Pacmeyer

What I see are a few buy singles! guys taking out their frustration over the hobby on wax buyers/collectors/investors/flippers etc.

I just buy singles of a Marlins players. So I know my money is wasted immediately upon purchase! No suspense!

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

You mean "wax flippers" who are lamenting the current state of the hobby.

Topps wisely for themselves increased the buy-in price for everyone.

Everyone is now forced to pay the breaker rate if you want to play.

The Topps issue with sky high pricing is it still hurts everyone else in the hobby besides for Topps, money tree members, and breakers. The 0.001%. They all win just breakers and direct accounts have to "only" make around what they made percentage wise on products for countless years until 2019. That's assuming they pay give or take 80%. They could still be getting a much lower price. Would anyone be stunned if Topps only charged them $150 a box instead of $200 on Sapphire? You think direct accounts paid 80% of $750 for F1 Sapphire boxes earlier in the year? I doubt it. Either way, they all win and everyone else in the hobby still loses with Topps charging prices they claim are market value.

I realize those groups are supposed to be and should be making money. But there is a difference between trying to screw everyone else out of every last cent so virtually all your customers lose or break even so you can make more profits versus having the equal balance to keep the hobby strong going forward. They could allow the market to determine new prices and still be getting by far the biggest pieces of the pie. But that's not enough. They want the whole thing.

[HRderby22]

Originally Posted by Pacmeyer

What's amusing is that you continually misunderstand the concept of a collectible. Collecting is not about cold hard logic. If it was, people would not be collecting all the junk that they do.

I'm always intrigued by the collector vs. investor debate. I suspect most all of us are actually hybrid's of some kind, but at the end of the day the price / value always matters to us all on some level.

There's no doubt the "investor" tracks the price, but I have a hunch most staunch collectors have a pretty good feel for what their card stash is worth too.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by HRderby22

I'm always intrigued by the collector vs. investor debate. I suspect most all of us are actually hybrid's of some kind, but at the end of the day the price / value always matters to us all on some level.

There's no doubt the "investor" tracks the price, but I have a hunch most staunch collectors have a pretty good feel for what their card stash is worth too.

A true collector folds all his cards in half and tears off at least one corner to make sure they’ll never be worth anything.

[mattglet]

Originally Posted by Pacmeyer

So which is it? You care about value or you don't?



You have no idea on here who's a wax investor versus a wax collector.

What's amusing is that you continually misunderstand the concept of a collectible. Collecting is not about cold hard logic. If it was, people would not be collecting all the junk that they do.

Ah yes, the ol' lack-of-context quoting, and just because the two quotes have the same word then everything must mean the same thing.

But keep on doing what you're doing. It's fine. And also transparent.

[Pacmeyer]

Originally Posted by mattglet

Ah yes, the ol' lack-of-context quoting, and just because the two quotes have the same word then everything must mean the same thing.

But keep on doing what you're doing. It's fine. And also transparent.

You've insisted that wax collectors are only in it for investment value, so how are your inconsistent statements about value out of context here?

And yes, my intentions should be transparent... to knock down silly arguments.

[Pacmeyer]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

I just buy singles of a Marlins players. So I know my money is wasted immediately upon purchase! No suspense!

Sorry but a true collector does not exhibit self-deprecating humor. Instead, you should make others feel bad about their collecting habits while elevating your own true collector status.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by Pacmeyer

Sorry but a true collector does not exhibit self-deprecating humor. Instead, you should make others feel bad about their collecting habits while elevating your own true collector status.

It’s hard being a “true collector”! Lots of rules to follow.

[ObanMontecristo]

Originally Posted by HRderby22

I'm always intrigued by the collector vs. investor debate. I suspect most all of us are actually hybrid's of some kind, but at the end of the day the price / value always matters to us all on some level.

There's no doubt the "investor" tracks the price, but I have a hunch most staunch collectors have a pretty good feel for what their card stash is worth too.

I agree many of us are probably hybrids, but I propose the following definitions, without passing judgment on any particular group:

“Flipper”- someone who buys with the intention of selling almost immediately for a profit, in the near term (almost always within 30-60 days). Strategy is to identify items at lower cost that can be turned into a relatively modest profit quickly, either by selling sealed product that is or will be in high demand, by opening newer product to sell individual cards quickly, or by having ‘raw’ cards graded to sell for more money in the near term.

“Investor”- someone who buys with the intention of holding for a longer term, to sell eventually at a more significant profit (months or years later). Strategy is to identify particular players or items that may appreciate significantly in value, and to sell at the right time to maximize profit.

“Collector”- someone who buys with the intention of holding for a long term, with no particular goal to sell at a particular time. Strategy is to gather a specific set, player, team, etc., and is more willing to take a risk that the item may depreciate in value.

[banosd]

Originally Posted by dani0100

Just buy some Heritage Minor League instead. $45 bucks a box and two on-card autos. Same guys.

That's what I was thinking, the Bowman name is still a cash cow even when other baseball market products are obviously slowing down or stabilizing

[mattglet]

Originally Posted by cardsin47

Yup - can’t plummet in value when it’s contents are unknown….

Originally Posted by mattglet

This is a good example of of preying on degenerate gamblers, of which there is already a smaller crowd... so you get stuck holding that box of hot potato.

Not to mention these days you can get a pretty good idea of what's NOT in the box: do research on whether or not the big superfractors (or any numbered cards) have been pulled, and then realize your astronomical odds of pulling what's left. Over time, as more of the product is opened, you can (and should!) easily be able to devalue any modern or ultra-modern box because there's relatively nothing left to pull.

Originally Posted by mattglet

Exactly why I said "modern and ultra-modern". Show me boxes of anything 1983 and older from Topps... those are collectibles and retain value.

Anything 2020 and newer... you're only fooling yourselves.

Originally Posted by mattglet

That's exactly my point: if you're just looking for rookies, buy singles. It will always be cheaper.

Originally Posted by mattglet

What I see are some wax "collectors" trying to defend their "investments" as being infallible and cannot lose value. Which is absolutely laughable.

And on top of that, when confronted they conveniently skip past the logic presented to them.

Originally Posted by Pacmeyer

You've insisted that wax collectors are only in it for investment value, so how are your inconsistent statements about value out of context here?

And yes, my intentions should be transparent... to knock down silly arguments.

That's an interesting narrative you're trying to spin. Where exactly in this thread did you pull that from?

[Pacmeyer]

Originally Posted by mattglet

That's an interesting narrative you're trying to spin. Where exactly in this thread did you pull that from?

If cardsin47's post is meant by you to represent all modern wax collectors then that's your spin right there.

[mattglet]

Originally Posted by Pacmeyer

If cardsin47's post is meant by you to represent all modern wax collectors then that's your spin right there.

All this spinning has you a bit dizzy I think.

What exactly are you refute?

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

The Topps issue with sky high pricing is it still hurts everyone else in the hobby besides for Topps, money tree members, and breakers. The 0.001%. They all win just breakers and direct accounts have to "only" make around what they made percentage wise on products for countless years until 2019. That's assuming they pay give or take 80%. They could still be getting a much lower price. Would anyone be stunned if Topps only charged them $150 a box instead of $200 on Sapphire? You think direct accounts paid 80% of $750 for F1 Sapphire boxes earlier in the year? I doubt it. Either way, they all win and everyone else in the hobby still loses with Topps charging prices they claim are market value.

I realize those groups are supposed to be and should be making money. But there is a difference between trying to screw everyone else out of every last cent so virtually all your customers lose or break even so you can make more profits versus having the equal balance to keep the hobby strong going forward. They could allow the market to determine new prices and still be getting by far the biggest pieces of the pie. But that's not enough. They want the whole thing.

You don't seem to understand what a market price is. If people are willing to pay a price, that IS the market price. Your complaint isn't with the so called money tree pricing, but with the people paying ridiculous prices for product.

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[Lonewolf]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Thank God Blowout sells them for a much more reasonable $449.95.

LOL!

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

You don't seem to understand what a market price is. If people are willing to pay a price, that IS the market price. Your complaint isn't with the so called money tree pricing, but with the people paying ridiculous prices for product.

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If that's the market price why then does that price tank within weeks 35-75%? That initial/presale price is a manipulated price set by the few select groups that pay a fraction of that for products. It has nothing to do with market value. They then break it or sell it at a lower cost if they can't sell at the sky-high price. Let people believe they are getting a deal when they are not. There is not 1 single in demand hobby product that would consistently sell at "market price" set by BO if all the boxes were made available for people to bid a price on with some type of auction system. If BO sold new/presale hobby products at market price the prices wouldn't tank very much without some type of catalyst. They would also have a reasonable chance to go up. What percentage of presale/initial prices for hobby products they get the vast majority of stock and can manipulate has BO priced this year that have increased in value? 1%? Is there a single one that has doubled? How many are currently down at least 35%? 60%? There are more hobby products released this year selling for under 50% of presale/initial price than currently sell above it.

This is mostly on products that have demand and are priced way above MSRP. Products priced close to MSRP it's hard to fall very far. If you actually want to do some research, it will become very obvious. Even with the bs BO preorder price there have been many times this year a product will auction and sell for less than 75% of that price. That is before product is in hand and before the big price tank.

But you can either remain oblivious, actually be that stupid, or you have an ulterior motive. I'm sure anyone who fully agrees with what you state falls into 1 of those 3 categories.

[Pacmeyer]

Originally Posted by mattglet

All this spinning has you a bit dizzy I think.

What exactly are you refute?

I'm refuting...

- that the value of wax should be dependent solely on the number of unpulled hits
- that all wax bought and sold for a return will ultimately be opened (the hot potato argument)
- that no wax from 2020 onward will ever have value
- that a "true collectible" is a thing you know how to define
- that an "actual collector" is someone you know how to define

As for spinning, I don't need to lift a finger when you've spelled out your position exactly... you despise the wax investor/flipper/disingenuous charlatan/boogie man incubating his mountain of sealed wax while feeding off degenerate gamblers and keeping the buy singles guys from getting all the cards they want.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

I just buy singles of a Marlins players. So I know my money is wasted immediately upon purchase! No suspense!

I recommend diversifying into Red Sox - lots of great ways to waste $$ there. I prefer Verdugo.


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[pewe]

Originally Posted by Pacmeyer

What I see are a few buy singles! guys taking out their frustration over the hobby on wax buyers/collectors/investors/flippers etc.

Don’t we want as many wax buyer / rippers as possible to free our singles from their packs and sell them to us at a loss?

I get more frustrated when product gets clogged up and not broken because of high prices and breakers can’t justify buying, thus it just collects dust somewhere (sapphire, I’m looking at you)


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[mattglet]

Originally Posted by Pacmeyer

I'm refuting...

- that the value of wax should be dependent solely on the number of unpulled hits
- that all wax bought and sold for a return will ultimately be opened (the hot potato argument)
- that no wax from 2020 onward will ever have value
- that a "true collectible" is a thing you know how to define
- that an "actual collector" is someone you know how to define

As for spinning, I don't need to lift a finger when you've spelled out your position exactly... you despise the wax investor/flipper/disingenuous charlatan/boogie man incubating his mountain of sealed wax while feeding off degenerate gamblers and keeping the buy singles guys from getting all the cards they want.

Thanks for the outline. So what's your rebuttal to anything I've (actually) said?

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

If that's the market price why then does that price tank within weeks 35-75%? That initial/presale price is a manipulated price set by the few select groups that pay a fraction of that for products. It has nothing to do with market value. They then break it or sell it at a lower cost if they can't sell at the sky-high price. Let people believe they are getting a deal when they are not. There is not 1 single in demand hobby product that would consistently sell at "market price" set by BO if all the boxes were made available for people to bid a price on with some type of auction system. If BO sold new/presale hobby products at market price the prices wouldn't tank very much without some type of catalyst. They would also have a reasonable chance to go up. What percentage of presale/initial prices for hobby products they get the vast majority of stock and can manipulate has BO priced this year that have increased in value? 1%? Is there a single one that has doubled? How many are currently down at least 35%? 60%? There are more hobby products released this year selling for under 50% of presale/initial price than currently sell above it.

This is mostly on products that have demand and are priced way above MSRP. Products priced close to MSRP it's hard to fall very far. If you actually want to do some research, it will become very obvious. Even with the bs BO preorder price there have been many times this year a product will auction and sell for less than 75% of that price. That is before product is in hand and before the big price tank.

But you can either remain oblivious, actually be that stupid, or you have an ulterior motive. I'm sure anyone who fully agrees with what you state falls into 1 of those 3 categories.

Because market prices change, duh.

You really don't understand how markets work.

A certain group are willing to pay a certain price before release. Let's call them "the market". Eventually, those people have their supply and any unsold product is available for other people who weren't willing to pay the high initial price. Let's call them the new market. As supply and demand fluctuate and people enter and leave the market for a product, the prices fluctuate as well.

Tough concept, I know.

Remember one principle. For a product that isn't a necessity, no one can force anyone to pay a particular price. The choice is ALWAYS the consumer's.

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[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

If that's the market price why then does that price tank within weeks 35-75%? That initial/presale price is a manipulated price set by the few select groups that pay a fraction of that for products. It has nothing to do with market value. They then break it or sell it at a lower cost if they can't sell at the sky-high price. Let people believe they are getting a deal when they are not. There is not 1 single in demand hobby product that would consistently sell at "market price" set by BO if all the boxes were made available for people to bid a price on with some type of auction system. If BO sold new/presale hobby products at market price the prices wouldn't tank very much without some type of catalyst. They would also have a reasonable chance to go up. What percentage of presale/initial prices for hobby products they get the vast majority of stock and can manipulate has BO priced this year that have increased in value? 1%? Is there a single one that has doubled? How many are currently down at least 35%? 60%? There are more hobby products released this year selling for under 50% of presale/initial price than currently sell above it.

This is mostly on products that have demand and are priced way above MSRP. Products priced close to MSRP it's hard to fall very far. If you actually want to do some research, it will become very obvious. Even with the bs BO preorder price there have been many times this year a product will auction and sell for less than 75% of that price. That is before product is in hand and before the big price tank.

But you can either remain oblivious, actually be that stupid, or you have an ulterior motive. I'm sure anyone who fully agrees with what you state falls into 1 of those 3 categories.

Don't forget that the market price can change day to day, week to week, month to month.

The big box retailers, in the old days 5-10 years ago, used to start prices low, then as a product dried up, the replacement costs went up and frequently the big box retailers had to buy product BACK from customers they presold to at a higher price.

Now they've gotten smart. Start high - let the breakers and the rich and the desperate finish buying at the initial high price, THEN drop the price lower as demand decreases. That's how the people in control maximize profits. It doesn't make any business sense to allow all their low presale customers make the profits, the tables have turned now.

So going forward, wax flippers are essentially screwed. Those profits on flipping new wax are gone. The breakers are willing to pay higher presale and on the day of release than you. Singles are worth more when a product first comes out compared to a month later, usually. So thus the premium price to break cases early - the singles sell for higher. There are multiple reasons the market price at the beginning is the highest.

So accept the new reality, and outsmart the big box guys. I try not to buy anything until months later now, as you have stated, those boxes can frequently be had 35-65% cheaper a few months later, as the market value and demand has dropped.

Using your knowledge of players and collector behavior, find those deals when they get cheaper - why are you paying the breaker rate on day 1 when you can pay the steep discount rate several months later or during the offseason.

The rules of the game are constantly changing - adapt or get run over.

[Pacmeyer]

Originally Posted by mattglet

Thanks for the outline. So what's your rebuttal to anything I've (actually) said?

There's a name for your short term memory loss... BO deflection syndrome.

[LVDan]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Don't forget that the market price can change day to day, week to week, month to month.

The big box retailers, in the old days 5-10 years ago, used to start prices low, then as a product dried up, the replacement costs went up and frequently the big box retailers had to buy product BACK from customers they presold to at a higher price.

Now they've gotten smart. Start high - let the breakers and the rich and the desperate finish buying at the initial high price, THEN drop the price lower as demand decreases. That's how the people in control maximize profits. It doesn't make any business sense to allow all their low presale customers make the profits, the tables have turned now.

So going forward, wax flippers are essentially screwed. Those profits on flipping new wax are gone. The breakers are willing to pay higher presale and on the day of release than you. Singles are worth more when a product first comes out compared to a month later, usually. So thus the premium price to break cases early - the singles sell for higher. There are multiple reasons the market price at the beginning is the highest.

So accept the new reality, and outsmart the big box guys. I try not to buy anything until months later now, as you have stated, those boxes can frequently be had 35-65% cheaper a few months later, as the market value and demand has dropped.

Using your knowledge of players and collector behavior, find those deals when they get cheaper - why are you paying the breaker rate on day 1 when you can pay the steep discount rate several months later or during the offseason.

The rules of the game are constantly changing - adapt or get run over.

Very strong post and for the right products with the right players there will still be money to be made at the bottom of a more gently sloping V.


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