New Bowman Chrome prospect autos are cratering. What will follow?

[BigMac]

prices of cards falling across the board doesnt help but one key thing is comparing vaquero and arias is not the same as some of the higher end guys we've had in the past in terms of their prospect pedigree.. even christian hernandez had more upside & hype when '21 BC dropped and imo luis rodriguez got a bump from it.. i just dont think vaquero and arias are going to be elite prospect, it's a complete crapshoot at this point for these international guys cuz they're younger so harder to project their skills earlier on unless theyre really special like wander.. i do think single prices of the upcoming bowman draft we'll see strong prices as the draft was one of the deeper ones over the years in terms of a lot of hitter prospects

[imbluestreak23]

Bowman did so much better when it was released twice a year with only the top 40-60 guys getting autographs.

The market just can't support 200 new names annually. Nobody cares about 180-190 of them.

[mwash1983]

Originally Posted by BigMac

prices of cards falling across the board doesnt help but one key thing is comparing vaquero and arias is not the same as some of the higher end guys we've had in the past in terms of their prospect pedigree.. even christian hernandez had more upside & hype when '21 BC dropped and imo luis rodriguez got a bump from it.. i just dont think vaquero and arias are going to be elite prospect, it's a complete crapshoot at this point for these international guys cuz they're younger so harder to project their skills earlier on unless theyre really special like wander.. i do think single prices of the upcoming bowman draft we'll see strong prices as the draft was one of the deeper ones over the years in terms of a lot of hitter prospects

I want to see them keep being hyped, keeps my two main buys low.

[Raleigh504]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

Bowman did so much better when it was released twice a year with only the top 40-60 guys getting autographs.

The market just can't support 200 new names annually. Nobody cares about 180-190 of them.

But then you have a guy like Steven Kwan (others too, but he is the most recent) that come into the show and do not have any professional cards. Basically it was his Topps Now card and then his Update cards. For me, Bowman Draft should take the top X rounds of the draft, Bowman Chrome should be the top international signings and then Bowman should be anyone who missed the cut with getting their 1st pro card. To me, there is no need to have 5 prospect cards of a player after his 1st pro card and then skip other guys. Granted most of them would be worth little, but what's the point in having multiples of a guy who doesn't make it to MLB and then missing out on others who make it and don't have any.

Note: speaking of only base cards and not autos

[Raleigh504]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

Same here, from a collecting perspective I generally prefer Bowman Chrome rookie/veteran cards to the other Chrome.

Plus for some players, their Bowman Chrome RC (not 1st) can be worth more than their flagship/chrome cards. Ohtani comes to mind.

[LVDan]

Originally Posted by Raleigh504

But then you have a guy like Steven Kwan (others too, but he is the most recent) that come into the show and do not have any professional cards. Basically it was his Topps Now card and then his Update cards. For me, Bowman Draft should take the top X rounds of the draft, Bowman Chrome should be the top international signings and then Bowman should be anyone who missed the cut with getting their 1st pro card. To me, there is no need to have 5 prospect cards of a player after his 1st pro card and then skip other guys. Granted most of them would be worth little, but what's the point in having multiples of a guy who doesn't make it to MLB and then missing out on others who make it and don't have any.

Note: speaking of only base cards and not autos

This makes way too much sense to ever be adopted. We demand 4th year redundant cards of prospects!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

Same here, from a collecting perspective I generally prefer Bowman Chrome rookie/veteran cards to the other Chrome.

From a general perspective, Bowman really shouldn’t be carrying any MLB players whatsoever.

[OneSickDegen]

2022 Bowman Draft Jumbos going for $450 out the gate. IDK call me crazy but $150 per auto seems like a lot.

[seanbros55]

Originally Posted by yodastories

His thousand yard stare death eyes aren't helping either. Dude looks like he just got back from WW1-era trench warfare.

Just an all-around ugly card.

LOL! That's pretty great

That might as well be a long-range rifle slung over his shoulder walking away from The Somme

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by Raleigh504

But then you have a guy like Steven Kwan (others too, but he is the most recent) that come into the show and do not have any professional cards. Basically it was his Topps Now card and then his Update cards. For me, Bowman Draft should take the top X rounds of the draft, Bowman Chrome should be the top international signings and then Bowman should be anyone who missed the cut with getting their 1st pro card. To me, there is no need to have 5 prospect cards of a player after his 1st pro card and then skip other guys. Granted most of them would be worth little, but what's the point in having multiples of a guy who doesn't make it to MLB and then missing out on others who make it and don't have any.

Note: speaking of only base cards and not autos

I liked it better when there were 2 products. Even the Bowman above is a bit overkill as it's leftovers + redundant names.

1997-2007 formula worked great. Bowman Draft wasn't even the picture initially as it was true Bowman followed with a corresponding Chrome release. I'd ideally like to go back to that time. Regular Bowman was awesome, with the international parallels, Bowman Autographs insert set, Sign of the Future with various ink parallels.

I just don't think this market needs or wants to support 3 Bowman products. Well, they do support and have for the past 3 years but if Topps inserted rabbit poop in Chrome product #3 it wouldn't impact subsequent years sales as the sheep will buy it.

Bowman Draft should be simple, Draft names. Bowman and a corresponding Bowman Chrome release with the same checklist, just chromed, including any and all other names for that year is what I want. Make Bowman unique, stop calling it Paper. Nobody calls 1951 Mick a "Paper Rookie." PSA, stop labeling them as such. It's rather idiotic. It's Bowman, make it cool, stop treating it like a bastard child.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

Back to the OP for a moment… are 1st Bowman autos cratering or the prospects themselves cratering? The prices for the guys still in hype bubbles seem pretty high. Of course no one is paying big money for a Puason auto, he may never see the majors. That ship has sailed.

1st Chrome Autos are falling. The 68 I tracked are down almost 50% from this time last year.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by OneSickDegen

2022 Bowman Draft Jumbos going for $450 out the gate. IDK call me crazy but $150 per auto seems like a lot.

This is 2012 thinking.

With the rise in prices and the invention of eBay Standard Envelope, there is a ton of value in the stuff other than the autos. Just the base paper/chrome/refractors and you've got to be looking at $2,000 per case ($250 per box). Then you still get the non-auto chrome and paper color. I have no idea how often that stuff hits in a box/case, so can't really estimate it, but I'm guessing it is worth quite a bit.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

1st Chrome Autos are falling. The 68 I tracked are down almost 50% from this time last year.

Okay, well, that’s good news!

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

1st Chrome Autos are falling. The 68 I tracked are down almost 50% from this time last year.

I take it most of them are already major leaguers or are most still prospects in the minors?

[reddragonthe]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

This is 2012 thinking.

With the rise in prices and the invention of eBay Standard Envelope, there is a ton of value in the stuff other than the autos. Just the base paper/chrome/refractors and you've got to be looking at $2,000 per case ($250 per box). Then you still get the non-auto chrome and paper color. I have no idea how often that stuff hits in a box/case, so can't really estimate it, but I'm guessing it is worth quite a bit.

I think that's optimistic.

I want to see someone do that math to get there realistically.

As evidence of "not getting to $2k on average" I'll submit the Houdini auction valuation that puts the non-auto items (outside of inserts which are mixed) at around $1400/case... even if we added in "all" inserts you'd get to about $1500/case. And that's for an auction... pre-release... where there's eternal optimism on every spot hitting the big one.

I think in those breaks historically the non-auto stuff is always the "best value" so I don't think we are looking at some tiny fraction of $1500... but I think it's probably $1k at best return from any average case of Bowman (non-autos). And that's STILL optimistic, I think.

More than that I think is 2020 thinking.

[OneSickDegen]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

This is 2012 thinking.

With the rise in prices and the invention of eBay Standard Envelope, there is a ton of value in the stuff other than the autos. Just the base paper/chrome/refractors and you've got to be looking at $2,000 per case ($250 per box). Then you still get the non-auto chrome and paper color. I have no idea how often that stuff hits in a box/case, so can't really estimate it, but I'm guessing it is worth quite a bit.

May be worth it to tie up that much capital and add the time collating + selling this stuff if you're a dealer to grind out some kind of hourly rate but I'm not a dealer and that would be stressful af. I just want to open a single jumbo and not get 3 $10 autos but I'm pretty much priced out at $450. $300 would be a stretch but probably doable for me.

[Raleigh504]

I would actually prefer only "one" bowman release, but do it in 3 series. They can continue the numbering for prospect/veteran cards. Kindof like series 1 and 2 for flagship. Have a chrome and paper version of the same card. An auto of a top guy could be in the second release but his paper/chrome could be in the first.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

I take it most of them are already major leaguers or are most still prospects in the minors?

A blend of three groups of players;

1) Prospects
2) Young Major Leaguers (25 and under)
3) Prime aged MLB Stars (26-30)

The blend last year was about 40/40/20, with the young MLB stars being the worst performers, the prime aged players (Judge) the best as a group, and prospects about average.

I'm shrinking the player pool significantly for 2023, where the breakdown will be 7 prospects, 10 Young MLB, and 9 Prime Age. That will retain about 90% of the dollars though.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by reddragonthe

I think that's optimistic.

I want to see someone do that math to get there realistically.

As evidence of "not getting to $2k on average" I'll submit the Houdini auction valuation that puts the non-auto items (outside of inserts which are mixed) at around $1400/case... even if we added in "all" inserts you'd get to about $1500/case. And that's for an auction... pre-release... where there's eternal optimism on every spot hitting the big one.

I think in those breaks historically the non-auto stuff is always the "best value" so I don't think we are looking at some tiny fraction of $1500... but I think it's probably $1k at best return from any average case of Bowman (non-autos). And that's STILL optimistic, I think.

More than that I think is 2020 thinking.

Does Houdini auction off base paper? I have the spreadsheet for the 10-caser and I didn't see it. If you're getting 10 copies of each player I'm guessing that has to be close to $500 in value.

I'm also going with retail value (inventory) here. Fees, shipping....etc are going to push you down. And the big one...time.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by OneSickDegen

May be worth it to tie up that much capital and add the time collating + selling this stuff if you're a dealer to grind out some kind of hourly rate but I'm not a dealer and that would be stressful af. I just want to open a single jumbo and not get 3 $10 autos but I'm pretty much priced out at $450. $300 would be a stretch but probably doable for me.

No doubt the time is not worth it, IMO. I'm about as big of a grinder here and I still wouldn't open this in bulk...even if I had the extra cash (although at $2400/jumbo case it becomes a little more likely).

My main point is if someone were to open and list all of the cards, they'd probably be looking at $4000 (plus S&H, so really more) or so in inventory.

I think there are enough people willing to grind it out, plus a fun of opening premium, plus a gamblers premium that are going to make it tough for a lot of people compared to say 2015 or whatever. The hobby is just bigger now.

[jsatx]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Does Houdini auction off base paper?

I think the same guy always buys it from him. I don't know if you could make an offer. I believe it is for all 100+ cases. I think he said he shows up with a U-hual to pick it up. I can't imagine sorting all that.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by jsatx

I think the same guy always buys it from him. I don't know if you could make an offer. I believe it is for all 100+ cases. I think he said he shows up with a U-hual to pick it up. I can't imagine sorting all that.

Yeah, definitely not my cup of tea. I was just wondering if he auctioned it off by players so we could get an idea of what the value is. I know he did in 2017, as I have a bunch of Heliot Ramos and Jacob Gonzalez to eventually throw in the trash to prove it.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by jsatx

I think the same guy always buys it from him. I don't know if you could make an offer. I believe it is for all 100+ cases. I think he said he shows up with a U-hual to pick it up. I can't imagine sorting all that.

I recall selecting 5 cases of 2014 Bowman Draft paper base from dthimesch's group breaks back then and got tired of the stuff after sorting the 5th 800 count box. I cant imagine doing that to 100 cases of them

[h00perstar34]

Fanatics has hobby and hta boxes available on their website. Bought some gift cards and used a web coupon to get 10% off, everything came to roughly 235 per hta and 205 per hobby which I think is an okay price!

[Boredlawyer]

Wow, the market has crashed.

Just paid $27.50 shipped for a Gutierrez chrome auto.