Pricing INSANITY

[mattglet]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

The chances of pulling any superfractor are extremely low to the point that it shouldn't factor into any decision to buy wax.

Whether or not a J-rod superfractor is available is no reason to overpay for wax.

What SHOULD factor in?

[Pacmeyer]

Originally Posted by mattglet

Over time, as more of the product is opened, you can (and should!) easily be able to devalue any modern or ultra-modern box because there's relatively nothing left to pull.

Buying and selling sealed collectibles has never been solely about the contents. There's also condition and rarity of the item sealed as is that makes it collectible. Wax is no different.

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

Also need to worry about redemptions and bricking.

The older, rarer, and more expensive a box gets, the less likely someone would be buying it to open.

[mattglet]

Originally Posted by Pacmeyer

Buying and selling sealed collectibles has never been solely about the contents. There's also condition and rarity of the item sealed as is that makes it collectible. Wax is no different.



The older, rarer, and more expensive a box gets, the less likely someone would be buying it to open.

Exactly why I said "modern and ultra-modern". Show me boxes of anything 1983 and older from Topps... those are collectibles and retain value.

Anything 2020 and newer... you're only fooling yourselves.

[Pacmeyer]

Originally Posted by mattglet

Exactly why I said "modern and ultra-modern". Show me boxes of anything 1983 and older from Topps... those are collectibles and retain value.

Anything 2020 and newer... you're only fooling yourselves.

Which wax is collectible is subjective, just like your claim that only pre-1984 Topps wax is worth collecting. And that vintage wax you're placing on a pedestal was also junk at one time or those boxes of '79 OPC hockey wouldn't have sat at the corner store forever.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

The chances of pulling any superfractor are extremely low to the point that it shouldn't factor into any decision to buy wax.

Whether or not a J-rod superfractor is available is no reason to overpay for wax.

As a treasure hunter, that’s one of the main reasons I buy wax - to pull cards I cannot find or do not want to pay a random price for.

So I try to pull it myself, albeit to a smaller scale these days due to the higher prices of wax.

[anusinha]

It seems like for modern wax now, Its mainly football, basketball and bowman that are stupid priced. I.e., the gamblers products. Other baseball, hockey, and even soccer now are getting to be more realistic.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

I'll say higher than 80%. With the vast majority being at a money tree price that could tank 50% in one day and they would still turn a profit. That's the reason they are buying it. Money tree price combined with high buyer cost to buy into breaks. Doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure it out.

You think BO, Platinum, Layton, Backyard, etc. are clamoring to buy new products at the artificially manipulated prices? I've bought a decent amount of product the last few years. To my knowledge not 1 breaker that gets a decent amount at money tree price has tried to buy product from me over the last year. Outside of the big 3. However, the big 3 barely buy anything now. Why do you think BO has stopped buying product from the secondary market? Buying at prices that aren't money tree price they can loss. SC went from a few months ago having a 40 page buy list to 5 pages. I think DAC still buys a decent amount. Most of it is 65-75% of ebay though and smaller quantities compared to a few months ago. 2 years ago there were countless products hobby, FOTL, and retail they were all paying 80-100% of ebay.

I now understand your position. People really should disclose their holdings when they comment so others understand from what point of view you are coming from.

If you are sitting on a bunch of sealed wax and looking for more sealed wax to flip, I completely understand your frustration.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by anusinha

It seems like for modern wax now, Its mainly football, basketball and bowman that are stupid priced. I.e., the gamblers products. Other baseball, hockey, and even soccer now are getting to be more realistic.

Precisely. I think this proves that breakers drive up the price of products - the popular breaker items stay expensive, the unpopular ones, like heritage, are left for us collectors and at great prices as breakers dump their quota purchases onto the market.

It’s as clear as day now.

[mattglet]

Originally Posted by Pacmeyer

Which wax is collectible is subjective, just like your claim that only pre-1984 Topps wax is worth collecting. And that vintage wax you're placing on a pedestal was also junk at one time or those boxes of '79 OPC hockey wouldn't have sat at the corner store forever.

Which boxes and which corner store?

Which would you rather spend $700 on:
1. 15 Boggs AND 15 Gwynn AND 15 Sandberg
2. One box of 1983 Topps, BBCE wrapped.

[oldgoldy97]

Originally Posted by Pacmeyer

Buying and selling sealed collectibles has never been solely about the contents. There's also condition and rarity of the item sealed as is that makes it collectible. Wax is no different.



The older, rarer, and more expensive a box gets, the less likely someone would be buying it to open.

Yo Joe!

[yodastories]

Originally Posted by mattglet

Which boxes and which corner store?

Which would you rather spend $700 on:
1. 15 Boggs AND 15 Gwynn AND 15 Sandberg
2. One box of 1983 Topps, BBCE wrapped.

But there could be anything in that BBCE box, even 15 Boggs and 15 Gwynn and 15 Sandberg! Or maybe even some GI Joe!

[mattglet]

Originally Posted by yodastories

But there could be anything in that BBCE box, even 15 Boggs and 15 Gwynn and 15 Sandberg! Or maybe even some GI Joe!

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

I now understand your position. People really should disclose their holdings when they comment so others understand from what point of view you are coming from.

If you are sitting on a bunch of sealed wax and looking for more sealed wax to flip, I completely understand your frustration.

My position pertains to every single person in the hobby. With the exception of the price fixers. It doesn't matter what part you are in. These price manipulators are screwing everyone. What makes it worse is they could sell at market value and still get the biggest piece of the pie. But that's not enough. They want to screw you out of every last red cent. They could care less about repeat business. If you're selling products you know will more likely than not absolutely tank very soon after you think they want repeat business? It's get as much as possible and on to the next sucker. Same for breaks. Break as much at as high of cost as possible. If you don't come back they don't care. On to the next sucker.

All I want is what everyone else buying wax for any purpose should want. A fair chance to get new products at the value the market decides. I'm not asking for a money tree price or a handout from Topps to charge 25% of what a box is worth when you get it in the mail. The Panini dutch auction was the fairest system for everyone for about a year and a half until they ruined it. I want Topps/Fanatics to use some type of auction system with all the boxes available but that seems very unlikely.

I have the least amount of sealed wax I have had in over 2 1/2 years right now. I got out of most of it months ago. Good luck finding me pumping a product I currently have because I don't. I only have around a dozen products. Pretty much all of it is FOTL, online exclusive hobby, and retail. It's all bought at MSRP, floor price, or 1 drop from the floor. If I sold it all right now would basically break even.

It's nauseating the amount of pumping on this board from people trying to up their crap or guys with a vested interest in price manipulation continuing. Or other things like for example your cheering on Topps for charging $250 for boxes that the factory cost is about $2 a box. If they auctioned them fairly and the market decided the sellout price is $250 that's fine. But that's not going to be happening probably ever. Having to deal with the lowest of the low scum of the earth on a daily basis really sucks. It was never like how it's been the last 2 1/2 years from 2019 and earlier. At least since the mid 90s when I got into the hobby. There are several reasons I'll probably give people what they want and quit looking and commenting on this board. It's pointless now.

The last thing I was going to do was throw away money buying Zenith football hobby too high 1 box at a time per drop to prove without question the Panini auctions are now all fixed. If it was like Classics football was last week, very good chance the number of orders from my first order at a price no one else would buy until right around sell out would be fewer total orders than total cases for the product. So what did Panini do? Instead of auctioning the boxes with a floor price of $150 like the last 2 years they are selling it all to the money tree members. For around $80 a box. Because you know that's their best route to make money. Yet another brilliant move by Panini.

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by mattglet

What SHOULD factor in?

Which rookies are in the set. Things that you actually have a chance of landing.

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

As a treasure hunter, that’s one of the main reasons I buy wax - to pull cards I cannot find or do not want to pay a random price for.

So I try to pull it myself, albeit to a smaller scale these days due to the higher prices of wax.

How many superfractors have you pulled?

Have you won the lottery as well?

[yodastories]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

How many superfractors have you pulled?

Have you won the lottery as well?

I mean, you're right. The superfractors should not factor in to wax prices. The odds of pulling the best ones are probably higher than winning the lottery.

If the lottery operated the same way as wax, the higher it gets the more tickets would cost. Lottery is over a billion now? Well that'll be 25k for a ticket, please.

[mattglet]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

Which rookies are in the set. Things that you actually have a chance of landing.

That's exactly my point: if you're just looking for rookies, buy singles. It will always be cheaper.

[seanbros55]

This thread should be titled “Price-Fixing Insanity”

At the very least it’d be more appropriate…

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by seanbros55

This thread should be titled “Price-Fixing Insanity”

At the very least it’d be more appropriate…

There’s a lot of threads, with a lot of different titles, that are all basically wax rippers lamenting the current state of the hobby for them. I’m sympathetic to their pain, but I don’t see “the great wax price decline” coming like some of them do.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

My position pertains to every single person in the hobby. With the exception of the price fixers. It doesn't matter what part you are in. These price manipulators are screwing everyone. What makes it worse is they could sell at market value and still get the biggest piece of the pie. But that's not enough. They want to screw you out of every last red cent. They could care less about repeat business. If you're selling products you know will more likely than not absolutely tank very soon after you think they want repeat business? It's get as much as possible and on to the next sucker. Same for breaks. Break as much at as high of cost as possible. If you don't come back they don't care. On to the next sucker.

All I want is what everyone else buying wax for any purpose should want. A fair chance to get new products at the value the market decides. I'm not asking for a money tree price or a handout from Topps to charge 25% of what a box is worth when you get it in the mail. The Panini dutch auction was the fairest system for everyone for about a year and a half until they ruined it. I want Topps/Fanatics to use some type of auction system with all the boxes available but that seems very unlikely.

I have the least amount of sealed wax I have had in over 2 1/2 years right now. I got out of most of it months ago. Good luck finding me pumping a product I currently have because I don't. I only have around a dozen products. Pretty much all of it is FOTL, online exclusive hobby, and retail. It's all bought at MSRP, floor price, or 1 drop from the floor. If I sold it all right now would basically break even.

It's nauseating the amount of pumping on this board from people trying to up their crap or guys with a vested interest in price manipulation continuing. Or other things like for example your cheering on Topps for charging $250 for boxes that the factory cost is about $2 a box. If they auctioned them fairly and the market decided the sellout price is $250 that's fine. But that's not going to be happening probably ever. Having to deal with the lowest of the low scum of the earth on a daily basis really sucks. It was never like how it's been the last 2 1/2 years from 2019 and earlier. At least since the mid 90s when I got into the hobby. There are several reasons I'll probably give people what they want and quit looking and commenting on this board. It's pointless now.

The last thing I was going to do was throw away money buying Zenith football hobby too high 1 box at a time per drop to prove without question the Panini auctions are now all fixed. If it was like Classics football was last week, very good chance the number of orders from my first order at a price no one else would buy until right around sell out would be fewer total orders than total cases for the product. So what did Panini do? Instead of auctioning the boxes with a floor price of $150 like the last 2 years they are selling it all to the money tree members. For around $80 a box. Because you know that's their best route to make money. Yet another brilliant move by Panini.

I've given up getting angry at the price fixers. The problem is that they have their Johns (breakers and participants) to sell to at the high price. You are right, they don't care about anyone else. But if they have a group willing to pay high for their contraband, more power to them. Just like in the drug trade, I don't necessarily blame the growers entirely, it's the users who are just as guilty.

It will take time for new wax prices to get fair again. The next step is to target the drug addicts/degenerate gamblers. STOP participating in breaks. STOP your friends from participating in breaks. Get rid of the demand so that the breakers go under. If no one gets in breaks, guess what, the manufacturers will be forced to sell to the rest of us at more reasonable prices. The breakers will pay the high prices because they will profit if the degenerate gamblers come no matter how high the prices are.

I am in the same boat as you - I can't stand the pumping. Logofractor was the most disgusting example of that. "Product of the year" until you dumped all your boxes for profit. Then move on to the next. That's why I was so supportive of Topps in the sapphire thread. No box flippers, no pumping. It's still a beautiful product but no one wants to discuss it because there is no profit to be made by the pumpers. And they will all miss out. BTW, I do not own any boxes of sapphire. I decided not to buy any though I probably would if it was available at my local shop.

I really don't care if the card companies make their profit or not. Panini is still dumb and topps is getting smarter. I'm just glad there will be a lot less pumping of products on these boards going forward. If no one buys certain products, eventually the market will find a way of balancing itself out. You just need to have more patience. And some products that you may call being manipulated actually have that demand, no matter how outrageous you may think the prices are. Not all of them, but certainly some that are good long term investments, even at a perceived higher price.

You can no longer be an idiot and 'investz" in everything, only the smart and lucky "dumb" ones will survive going forward.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

How many superfractors have you pulled?

Have you won the lottery as well?

I've pulled about 7 superfractors in my lifetime, including two bowman draft autos.

No, I have never won the lottery.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

There’s a lot of threads, with a lot of different titles, that are all basically wax rippers lamenting the current state of the hobby for them. I’m sympathetic to their pain, but I don’t see “the great wax price decline” coming like some of them do.

You mean "wax flippers" who are lamenting the current state of the hobby.

Topps wisely for themselves increased the buy-in price for everyone.

Everyone is now forced to pay the breaker rate if you want to play.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

You mean "wax flippers" who are lamenting the current state of the hobby.

Topps wisely for themselves increased the buy-in price for everyone.

Everyone is now forced to pay the breaker rate if you want to play.

I dunno. I’m just saying wax rippers are the most unhappiest collector base around these parts. I understand why though.

[Pacmeyer]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

There’s a lot of threads, with a lot of different titles, that are all basically wax rippers lamenting the current state of the hobby for them. I’m sympathetic to their pain, but I don’t see “the great wax price decline” coming like some of them do.

What I see are a few buy singles! guys taking out their frustration over the hobby on wax buyers/collectors/investors/flippers etc.

[mattglet]

Originally Posted by Pacmeyer

What I see are a few buy singles! guys taking out their frustration over the hobby on wax buyers/collectors/investors/flippers etc.

What I see are some wax "collectors" trying to defend their "investments" as being infallible and cannot lose value. Which is absolutely laughable.

And on top of that, when confronted they conveniently skip past the logic presented to them.