Official Tom Brady RC Price Tracker

[2010GBPackers]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Down 83% over the last year, if that sale is lucky enough to be legit.

The entire “first” narrative is dead. First Prizm, first Optic, etc. It’s just not important. The set is either iconic or not. 2012 Prizm Football is not.

His Championship Ticket /100 is down 58.8% as well and I'm pretty sure you can mark that card down as a Top 10 Iconic card of all-time.

I think the market needs to stabilize before we can start making pronouncements about cards/sets being iconic or not.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by 2010GBPackers

His Championship Ticket /100 is down 58.8% as well and I'm pretty sure you can mark that card down as a Top 10 Iconic card of all-time.

I think the market needs to stabilize before we can start making pronouncements about cards/sets being iconic or not.

That’s $17 vs $41 on a $100 cost basis. Big difference.

Do you really think 2012 Prizm football is iconic? People desperately wanted it to be something it wasn’t. It was a bad pump like every other Prizm pump. 2020 Prizm Gold went from $50.4k in a BGS 9 to $8400 in a PSA 9 in just 10 months this year. Gold Vinyl went from $48k in a PSA 7 to $7200 in a PSA 9 over the same period.

[JeremyNick]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

That’s $17 vs $41 on a $100 cost basis. Big difference.

Do you really think 2012 Prizm football is iconic? People desperately wanted it to be something it wasn’t. It was a bad pump like every other Prizm pump. 2020 Prizm Gold went from $50.4k in a BGS 9 to $8400 in a PSA 9 in just 10 months this year. Gold Vinyl went from $48k in a PSA 7 to $7200 in a PSA 9 over the same period.

I’m really up in the air about the iconic status of Prizm. Over the past two to three releases it has really lost its luster with overproduction, retail nonsense and parallels on top of parallels. How much will Panini continue to tarnish it moving forward? Will Fanatics even continue the product over say Topps Chrome?

Most of the hypebois that have come in the hobby in the past 24 months won’t be there in another 24 months and that is the crowd that really breathed life into the Prizm legacy.

Your really looking at maybe a 3-4 year window where Prizm was seen as a standard and as you noted, the prices on “rare” Prizm cards has really ranked.

[KhalDrogo]

Say $5000 is FMV for a Brady 2012 Prizm Silver PSA 10. You can get a PSA 9 R&S and a PSA 8 Showcase for that amount. Which do you chose? With the easy money gone, so are the people who pushed cards like Prizm Silvers and Golds as high as they got for players like Brady.

[nabzy28]

I mostly just observe this thread, at this point, but as a collector that's been around since the late 80's, Panini's shiny releases mean absolutely nothing to me. I couldn't care less about Prizm golds, silvers or whatever. With Topps back, that's what matters for me. Older UD serial numbered carries a ton more weight with me.

Carry on.

[jgb1219]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Down 83% over the last year, if that sale is lucky enough to be legit.

The entire “first” narrative is dead. First Prizm, first Optic, etc. It’s just not important. The set is either iconic or not. 2012 Prizm Football is not.

Hear your point, though I do think that the first edition of a given type of card will continue to carry a premium relative to subsequent editions of the same card. For example, all things being equal (e.g., grade), I think that the 2012 Prizm Gold Brady will continue to be more desirable and sell for a premium to the 2013 Prizm Gold Brady. In other words, the *entire* first narrative isn't dead, even if there are differing opinions on Prizm's longer-term desirability.

[mcb0419]

Originally Posted by JeremyNick

Will Fanatics even continue the product over say Topps Chrome?

I hope that they choose to keep one of the two, and Topps Chrome wins out. I liked having Prizm around as a substitute for Chrome but I don't see a reason to keep both. They can keep Select or Optic as the other premium chrome card if they want.

[2010GBPackers]

Originally Posted by JeremyNick

I’m really up in the air about the iconic status of Prizm. Over the past two to three releases it has really lost its luster with overproduction, retail nonsense and parallels on top of parallels. How much will Panini continue to tarnish it moving forward? Will Fanatics even continue the product over say Topps Chrome?

Most of the hypebois that have come in the hobby in the past 24 months won’t be there in another 24 months and that is the crowd that really breathed life into the Prizm legacy.

Your really looking at maybe a 3-4 year window where Prizm was seen as a standard and as you noted, the prices on “rare” Prizm cards has really ranked.

One thing that hasn't changed, and what separates it from Topps Chrome or (insert iconic set) is that Prizm kept its base gold parallel to 10 copies while overproduction has plagued other of its parallels. The Prizm gold /10 now has a 10-year run of it being the most sought-after PC card in player collections. That's significant, as other brands, iconic or not in their own right, have diluted their premium parallels by numbering them differently each year (i.e. Topps Chrome gold was /199 in 2008), skipped a year of including the parallel (i.e. no Topps Chrome gold in 2009), or discontinuing the brand altogether.

And, yes, it's no surprise the Brady silvers are taking a massive hit but it's still a very rare card - relatively speaking. Only 41 total graded in PSA's pop report in a span of 10 years. I wouldn't pay $20k for one if I was a Brady collector, but it'd definitely have to be in my collection.

[2010GBPackers]

Originally Posted by mcb0419

I hope that they choose to keep one of the two, and Topps Chrome wins out. I liked having Prizm around as a substitute for Chrome but I don't see a reason to keep both. They can keep Select or Optic as the other premium chrome card if they want.

I would prefer they keep Topps Chrome over Prizm as well. I just hope they move away from having the gold base parallel at /50 copies and go to /10 copies, like Prizm.

[KhalDrogo]

Would love to see a 2012 Gold come to auction right now. A shame that the copy over the summer was not paid for. Thought it was coming back this fall, but didn’t happen.

[JeremyNick]

Originally Posted by 2010GBPackers

One thing that hasn't changed, and what separates it from Topps Chrome or (insert iconic set) is that Prizm kept its base gold parallel to 10 copies while overproduction has plagued other of its parallels. The Prizm gold /10 now has a 10-year run of it being the most sought-after PC card in player collections. That's significant, as other brands, iconic or not in their own right, have diluted their premium parallels by numbering them differently each year (i.e. Topps Chrome gold was /199 in 2008), skipped a year of including the parallel (i.e. no Topps Chrome gold in 2009), or discontinuing the brand altogether.

And, yes, it's no surprise the Brady silvers are taking a massive hit but it's still a very rare card - relatively speaking. Only 41 total graded in PSA's pop report in a span of 10 years. I wouldn't pay $20k for one if I was a Brady collector, but it'd definitely have to be in my collection.

That’s the one positive it is going, a single parallel. I am not downplaying that but Prizm has taken such a massive hit in terms of interest and obviously was pumped and dumped, I’m wondering what that effect that will have on the name long term.

I don’t have an answer but I would almost completely separate the Prizm Gold from the entirety of Prizm, but I do think the gold will suffer some long term. Let’s is the honest, Prizm is just an overpriced crap product at this point. It may take a generation removed and nostalgia to get the love back.

[jgb1219]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Would love to see a 2012 Gold come to auction right now. A shame that the copy over the summer was not paid for. Thought it was coming back this fall, but didn’t happen.

Same here. Curious to see what it would do in this market.

[Archangel1775]

If there was any pumping of TB12, it was definitely 2012 Prizm. Yes, it's the first release of Prizm but there was nothing iconic about it. It's not 2012 basketball with the double rookie class filled with Future Hall of Famers. Time has not been it's friend either, Prizm could end or being exactly where it was before, second fiddle to Topps Chrome. Yes, Gold Prizms are great but silvers, definitely overpriced. Now 50 years from now, that may be a different story.

[Derekbauer]

Panini era Gold and Black finite prizms will always be desired by collectors.

The 2012 silver Brady I don’t see as a $5k card but I do think it draws comparisons with 2002 chrome base in a sense. If base ‘02 chrome PSA 10s are going for $1500 with 3x the pop that’s where I think the ‘12 prizm silver gem can settle in.

I agree with you Khal a lot but I disagree that all of the “firsts” are completely dead. Some will always be a thing.

[Onepocketj]

Originally Posted by Derekbauer

Panini era Gold and Black finite prizms will always be desired by collectors.

The 2012 silver Brady I don’t see as a $5k card but I do think it draws comparisons with 2002 chrome base in a sense. If base ‘02 chrome PSA 10s are going for $1500 with 3x the pop that’s where I think the ‘12 prizm silver gem can settle in.

I agree with you Khal a lot but I disagree that all of the “firsts” are completely dead. Some will always be a thing.

3X the pop?
2002 - 1123 graded with 188 10's
2012 - 41 graded with 18 10's

I think the Prizm Silver would keep it's value much better if it was actually numbered. Although people know it's rare, they want to know exactly how rare.

[zolt1313]

Originally Posted by Onepocketj

3X the pop?
2002 - 1123 graded with 188 10's
2012 - 41 graded with 18 10's

I think the Prizm Silver would keep it's value much better if it was actually numbered. Although people know it's rare, they want to know exactly how rare.

Yeah, I think the Black Refractors /599 are more closely 3x the overall pop of 2012 silvers. Looks like 13 PSA 10s of those at a lower gem rate. One sold for $22K in the September PWCC Premier at the same time of a 2012 Prizm Silver PSA 10 sale for $15K.

[Derekbauer]

Originally Posted by Onepocketj

3X the pop?
2002 - 1123 graded with 188 10's
2012 - 41 graded with 18 10's

I think the Prizm Silver would keep it's value much better if it was actually numbered. Although people know it's rare, they want to know exactly how rare.

Totally meant to write 10x the pop.

[2010GBPackers]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Would love to see a 2012 Gold come to auction right now. A shame that the copy over the summer was not paid for. Thought it was coming back this fall, but didn’t happen.

Originally Posted by jgb1219

Same here. Curious to see what it would do in this market.

I wasn't surprised to not see it come back up for auction. I'm sure the seller was ecstatic that it went unpaid. Unless they were really hard up for cash, it was better to hold. Either that or they found a private buyer once it was known it went unsold.

[2010GBPackers]

Originally Posted by JeremyNick

That’s the one positive it is going, a single parallel. I am not downplaying that but Prizm has taken such a massive hit in terms of interest and obviously was pumped and dumped, I’m wondering what that effect that will have on the name long term.

I don’t have an answer but I would almost completely separate the Prizm Gold from the entirety of Prizm, but I do think the gold will suffer some long term. Let’s is the honest, Prizm is just an overpriced crap product at this point. It may take a generation removed and nostalgia to get the love back.

You're right, Prizm is destroying its brand at the moment. But things can change. It still has brand awareness, whereas Mosaic has been a 5h!t brand from the start. 2012-2016 Prizm is still rare, comparatively, with 2012 and 2013 being very low printed as I mentioned in my earlier post (41 total 2012 Brady Prizm silvers in PSA holders).

Plus, one thing to consider is just like PMG's, a scrub-to-average player's most expensive card is their 2012 Prizm gold. Again, it's the grail card for every PC collector, and seeming as there are realistically 4-7 of them actually in the wild, it's about as significant and rare of a card as you'll find.

[Derekbauer]

Originally Posted by 2010GBPackers

You're right, Prizm is destroying its brand at the moment. But things can change. It still has brand awareness, whereas Mosaic has been a 5h!t brand from the start. 2012-2016 Prizm is still rare, comparatively, with 2012 and 2013 being very low printed as I mentioned in my earlier post (41 total 2012 Brady Prizm silvers in PSA holders).

Plus, one thing to consider is just like PMG's, a scrub-to-average player's most expensive card is their 2012 Prizm gold. Again, it's the grail card for every PC collector, and seeming as there are realistically 4-7 of them actually in the wild, it's about as significant and rare of a card as you'll find.

It’s crazy how much some of these scrubs are going for. I also recently got into a bidding war with a Victor Cruz supercollector and that 2012 gold landed just shy of $1k. He personally called it the holy grail of Cruz collecting.

[JeremyNick]

Originally Posted by 2010GBPackers

You're right, Prizm is destroying its brand at the moment. But things can change. It still has brand awareness, whereas Mosaic has been a 5h!t brand from the start. 2012-2016 Prizm is still rare, comparatively, with 2012 and 2013 being very low printed as I mentioned in my earlier post (41 total 2012 Brady Prizm silvers in PSA holders).

Plus, one thing to consider is just like PMG's, a scrub-to-average player's most expensive card is their 2012 Prizm gold. Again, it's the grail card for every PC collector, and seeming as there are realistically 4-7 of them actually in the wild, it's about as significant and rare of a card as you'll find.

Grails are very subjective.

I PC a couple guys that have 2012 Golds. I have zero desire to add those to the PC. One because they are just ugly. That entire set is ugly that year. Two I believe they still have a great deal of hype that needs to be exorcised.

I’m not saying they should hold value or premium, but I think Prizm is massively overhyped still. The Prizm first craze was a pump show from the get and the prices are not down to what I where they should be yet. That coupled with the uncertainty of how Prizm will be viewed in 5 years and whether it will even be around is part of why I’ve knocked all but a couple years of it off my buy list.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by JeremyNick

Grails are very subjective.

I PC a couple guys that have 2012 Golds. I have zero desire to add those to the PC. One because they are just ugly. That entire set is ugly that year. Two I believe they still have a great deal of hype that needs to be exorcised.

I’m not saying they should hold value or premium, but I think Prizm is massively overhyped still. The Prizm first craze was a pump show from the get and the prices are not down to what I were they should be yet. That coupled with the uncertainty of how Prizm will be viewed in 5 years and whether it will even be around is part of why I’ve knocked all but a couple years of it off my buy list.

Most probably don’t realize that when the Prizm Silver hype took off in earnest in early 2019, it was the result of a couple of people manipulating the prices of 2013 LeBron Silvers. A PSA 10 went from $175 to $1100 in three months because of that. That ignited the 2012 chase and pump. It’s all documented here. I literally watched a couple of #@#@#@#@#@#@#@s do it in real time.

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showth...ghlight=Silver

I’m a firm believer that everything reverts to the mean. Not that all prices will necessarily get back to pre-pandemic (many cards have new floors). But what happens when the organic demand is all that’s left to support prices? Few cared about Brady Prizms back in 2019. $5k for a PSA 10 2012 Silver is still a lot of money that can buy a number of really special cards. How many people out there want that card for $5k when the future upside is in serious question?

[2010GBPackers]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Most probably don’t realize that when the Prizm Silver hype took off in earnest in early 2019, it was the result of a couple of people manipulating the prices of 2013 LeBron Silvers. A PSA 10 went from $175 to $1100 in three months because of that. That ignited the 2012 chase and pump. It’s all documented here. I literally watched a couple of #@#@#@#@#@#@#@s do it in real time.

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showth...ghlight=Silver

I’m a firm believer that everything reverts to the mean. Not that all prices will necessarily get back to pre-pandemic (many cards have new floors). But what happens when the organic demand is all that’s left to support prices? Few cared about Brady Prizms back in 2019. $5k for a PSA 10 2012 Silver is still a lot of money that can buy a number of really special cards. How many people out there want that card for $5k when the future upside is in serious question?

Few cared about Brady back in 2019.

[2010GBPackers]

Originally Posted by JeremyNick

Grails are very subjective.

I PC a couple guys that have 2012 Golds. I have zero desire to add those to the PC. One because they are just ugly. That entire set is ugly that year. Two I believe they still have a great deal of hype that needs to be exorcised.

I’m not saying they should hold value or premium, but I think Prizm is massively overhyped still. The Prizm first craze was a pump show from the get and the prices are not down to what I where they should be yet. That coupled with the uncertainty of how Prizm will be viewed in 5 years and whether it will even be around is part of why I’ve knocked all but a couple years of it off my buy list.

Totally understood. That's you though. I think PMG's and their design is completely overrated, ugly (aside from the refractive foil), clash with most jersey colors (a Favre red PMG or Kobe red/green? No thanks.), and feature ridiculous "futuristic" designs. Doesn't mean they aren't the most iconic parallel of all-time.

And 2012 is not even my favorite year of Prizm gold - 2013 would be my favorite. Plus, the 2012 Prizm gold isn't even my favorite PC card - the 2014 Certified Mirror Platinum gold /5 is. However, neither one of those cards will most likely replace the importance and iconicness (is that a word?) of the 2012 Prizm gold.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by 2010GBPackers

Few cared about Brady back in 2019.

Which is a problem going forward. Not isolated to Brady though.