Yordan Alvarez

[jhssketchcards]

People can rave about who they want to, but the fact is Alvarez hit 2 HR that were absolutely crucial to the Astros WS run this year. His G1 Walk-off vs Seattle and the 3 R go ahead bomb in G6 vs Philly in the WS. I can’t recall a bigger WS HR besides Soto’s 2019 WS HR that helped slip the momentum for Wash.

Acuna - won WS ring but was on IL
Tatis - some nice playoff moments but busted for PEDs and suspended in late 2022
Ohtani - amazing talent but zero postseason app
Vlad - God awful in2 postseason appearances

Other than Soto Yordan has the best postseason resume so far in the young guns.


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[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Yet it's a much smaller problem than you make it out to be. Are they the Yankees, Mets, Cubs...etc? No. Are they the Marlins, Rays, A's? No. This is fairly easy to quantify with a little bit of research, BTW.




Barely matters. Ortiz is the only DH ever who has been hobby good because he's the only DH who has ever been hobby good. Yordan is an elite hitter (#2 in my secret sauce for 2023). If he maintains that level through his peak, his prices are heading nowhere but up.



Again, this is easily quantifiable. When I say Yordan is cheap, I mean he's cheap once I adjust for age and team.

One thing to keep in mind, Acuna is 25 next year. Vlad, Soto, and Tatis are 24. Their age bonus is going to continue to wear off.



This is true. The Yordan money definitely gets spread thin.



It depends on how you define this one.

Will he ever reach their peak prices? Hell to the no! Neither will they though. As noted earlier, even they are getting long in the tooth (hobby wise) and the market has beaten everybody down.

Will he ever pass one or more them? That is very possible, as early as next season. He cut the gap quite a bit this year. The big guns were 7x to 14x last November, this November they will be 2x to 4x. His hobby projection is better than all of them, plus Tatis is pretty much guaranteed to keep sinking through at least May.

So why are there numerous people/collectors in this thread plain shocked at how low his cards are and have been for his entire career…even after an MVP run, massive WS, hobby boom, etc? The proof is in the numbers. He’s an Astro, DH, “old guy” with too many RCs. You can downplay all those things, all you want but facts are facts. If being a DH & an Astro didn’t matter then his prices should be higher…but they aren’t.


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[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by jhssketchcards

People can rave about who they want to, but the fact is Alvarez hit 2 HR that were absolutely crucial to the Astros WS run this year. His G1 Walk-off vs Seattle and the 3 R go ahead bomb in G6 vs Philly in the WS. I can’t recall a bigger WS HR besides Soto’s 2019 WS HR that helped slip the momentum for Wash.

Acuna - won WS ring but was on IL
Tatis - some nice playoff moments but busted for PEDs and suspended in late 2022
Ohtani - amazing talent but zero postseason app
Vlad - God awful in2 postseason appearances

Other than Soto Yordan has the best postseason resume so far in the young guns.


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According to Trouties…post season success means absolutely nothing.


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[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Bambino22

As collectors start eating up more of his cards with little to no intention to resell. Shouldn't prices go up, everything else (all other variables) staying constant?

I never understand this with cards. I must be wrong but I don't know why. Only thing I can think of is heavy majority >90% of cards are being bought and then resold in next couple years. So the collectors who eat up cards forever hurting supply are very small and insignificant.

He’s a 2020 guy. There are too many cards of his available for him to find any traction. If his Flagship Platinum could only do $6100 the night of a huge WS HR that gave the Astros the win, why are you surprised there’s not a whole lot of interest in the rest of his stuff?

[jhssketchcards]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

According to Trouties…post season success means absolutely nothing.


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Well I’m not talking about card prices. Hobby and sport are two different things Trout is a great player and as a player he is superior to his peers although I think Harper closed the gap. In relation to hobby love, I can see the two blending for card prices.
Harper for example hit only .200 in Phil loss in the WS but at least he got there. Alvarez has been to 3 WS in 4 years with one win, but only hit .136 in this years WS but his HR was huge. That’s great for baseball but doesn’t translate to the hobby.


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[Bambino22]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

He’s a 2020 guy. There are too many cards of his available for him to find any traction. If his Flagship Platinum could only do $6100 the night of a huge WS HR that gave the Astros the win, why are you surprised there’s not a whole lot of interest in the rest of his stuff?

Yeah I get that about 2020. And I should have clarified I was just talking about rookie card prices. Would be bigger impact on Soto prices. Think of it this way....if half of people buying Soto rookie cards were like Reggie, me, or some other Soto collectors as long term holders. Surely his rookie card prices would be higher if all other variables were fixed (money into hobby, Sotos performs equal expectations,...).

Luckily I dont have or need high expectations on Yordans card prices. In fact I want them to stay affordable for kids, other young fans, and selfishly to complete some Yordan projects I'm working on. I rather them take off in price 5 years from now if possible.

Just a general comment I thought was a basic economics supply and demand thing that should fractionally improve his prices.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

So why are there numerous people/collectors in this thread plain shocked at how low his cards are and have been for his entire career…even after an MVP run, massive WS, hobby boom, etc? The proof is in the numbers. He’s an Astro, DH, “old guy” with too many RCs. You can downplay all those things, all you want but facts are facts. If being a DH & an Astro didn’t matter then his prices should be higher…but they aren’t.


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Yeah, the proof is in the numbers. He had this huge year and his cards went up huge. I mean he's literally within one more big season of being #2 out of the young guns (depending on what the other guys do, of course).

The reason people marvel at how cheap his cards are is because they are cheap. You simply can't get that kind of production for that low of a price anywhere. His prices will continue to rise until they are more in line with Soto/Vlad/Acuna/Tatis. Or theirs will fall.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

His prices will continue to rise until they are more in line with Soto/Vlad/Acuna/Tatis. Or theirs will fall.

No they won’t. Yordan is in the bargain bin for a reason. He’s not getting out of there.

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

The reason people marvel at how cheap his cards are is because they are cheap. You simply can't get that kind of production for that low of a price anywhere.

True - is it just because he’s an Astro and a DH? ( not that those 2 things are small … )

[jhssketchcards]

People saying Alvarez has so many cards… Ohtani cards in 2018 are everywhere. They printed his stuff in droves.


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[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

No they won’t. Yordan is in the bargain bin for a reason. He’s not getting out of there.

What can he do to jump from the bargain bin to the display case?

[Astros19]

Is it just a coincidence that a few of the negative Nellie's here also happen to be some of the biggest Astros haters on the message board?
It doesn't really matter much to me. Sure I want my collection to hold its value, but I'm also pretty happy to pick up his cards at a decent price.

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[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Yeah, the proof is in the numbers. He had this huge year and his cards went up huge. I mean he's literally within one more big season of being #2 out of the young guns (depending on what the other guys do, of course).

The reason people marvel at how cheap his cards are is because they are cheap. You simply can't get that kind of production for that low of a price anywhere. His prices will continue to rise until they are more in line with Soto/Vlad/Acuna/Tatis. Or theirs will fall.

So why have they been so cheap? Astro? DH? Knee? Age? Releases? All the above?


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[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by Astros19

Is it just a coincidence that a few of the negative Nellie's here also happen to be some of the biggest Astros haters on the message board?
It doesn't really matter much to me. Sure I want my collection to hold its value, but I'm also pretty happy to pick up his cards at a decent price.

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It has nothing to do with hating the Astros. Several members continue to ask why he’s so “cheap”. We’ve answered why. People don’t like the answers but have yet to provide any other solution.


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[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Astros19

Is it just a coincidence that a few of the negative Nellie's here also happen to be some of the biggest Astros haters on the message board?
It doesn't really matter much to me. Sure I want my collection to hold its value, but I'm also pretty happy to pick up his cards at a decent price.

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It’s called reality.

Hits a WS clinching HR and hours later his Platinum Flagship sells for $6100. A PSA 10 BCA is $665. His stuff is dirt cheap for the level he performs at. I don’t buy his stuff, so maybe you can explain why the people who do aren’t interested in paying more for him.

[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

It’s called reality.

Hits a WS clinching HR and hours later his Platinum Flagship sells for $6100. A PSA 10 BCA is $665. His stuff is dirt cheap for the level he performs at. I don’t buy his stuff, so maybe you can explain why the people who do aren’t interested in paying more for him.

So cheap...yet nobody here was willing to fork over $6k for one of the best 2-3 cards of him that will EVER be produced. Hobby great that will go up you say? You all should've been fighting over it until death. Ive seen the next big thing in the MLS have cards go for 2-3x this amount. This is a left hand hitting, power slugger on a perennial WS team thats only in his mid 20s. Weird.

[Bambino22]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

It’s called reality.

Hits a WS clinching HR and hours later his Platinum Flagship sells for $6100. A PSA 10 BCA is $665. His stuff is dirt cheap for the level he performs at. I don’t buy his stuff, so maybe you can explain why the people who do aren’t interested in paying more for him.

People are coming around. 665$ is a nice bump.



Missing out on that platinum is going to hurt a few of us on here. But those auctions are clearly not the right way to always sell those cards. If that person messaged me and asked for 8-10k, I would have more then likely made a deal if given a few weeks.

[Astros19]

I must have struck a nerve, or two.
Speaking of reality, I wasn't wrong with my observation.
I also don't doubt any of the reasons that have been given aren't true.
Just seems ironic that the bad news bears are the same 2-3 people who seem to have no interest in Alvarez and hate the Astros but continue to post in the thread.
Like I said, I'm happy his prices are staying affordable. It makes it a lot easier on my budget.

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[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Bambino22

People are coming around. 665$ is a nice bump.



Missing out on that platinum is going to hurt a few of us on here. But those auctions are clearly not the right way to always sell those cards. If that person messaged me and asked for 8-10k, I would have more then likely made a deal if given a few weeks.

Same story as the Vlad Super. If liquidity is so bad that these kinds of cards are underselling by ~50% at auction, that’s not good.

[SupermanBrandon]

BO 1: I wonder why...?
BO 2: Here's the reality...
BO 1: Hater!
BO 2: Can you provide any other answer?
BO 1: Hater!

[Astros19]

I've hear Alvarez is pretty thin skinned. Maybe that's the reason.

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[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

So cheap...yet nobody here was willing to fork over $6k for one of the best 2-3 cards of him that will EVER be produced. Hobby great that will go up you say? You all should've been fighting over it until death. Ive seen the next big thing in the MLS have cards go for 2-3x this amount. This is a left hand hitting, power slugger on a perennial WS team thats only in his mid 20s. Weird.

Yordan has me in a pickle!
Since I collect with an Investor’s eye —- 1/2 of me loves him, and wants to buy up high end key RC’s all day long …

The other 1/2 of me hears all kinda’ warning bells ringing - his prices based on production should be much higher - but they’re not - so something or some things are wrong with this picture.

I ended up splitting the difference to keep both of Me happy - have some really nice Rookie singles, no wax, and I’m on a self imposed spending freeze ~ won’t buy any more until I know where his cardboard is headed with the hobby

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by cardsin47

Yordan has me in a pickle!
Since I collect with an Investor’s eye —- 1/2 of me loves him, and wants to buy up high end key RC’s all day long …

The other 1/2 of me hears all kinda’ warning bells ringing - his prices based on production should be much higher - but they’re not - so something or some things are wrong with this picture.

I ended up splitting the difference to keep both of Me happy - have some really nice Rookie singles, no wax, and I’m on a self imposed spending freeze ~ won’t buy any more until I know where his cardboard is headed with the hobby

If you’re an investor, this is where true speculation comes in. This is where you decide to take a risk… or not. It’s easy to buy the things everyone has labeled as a “buy.”

As for me, I gave up on speculation a while back and have enjoyed my collection a lot more ever since.

[Archangel1775]

He's gonna have to Triple Crown the MVP to see a rise in line with Soto, Vlad and Acuna so as long as they stay reasonable. Reality is they got in younger to accumulate stats. Long term, the Astros will be a contender for another 5 years at least. If he can be consistent in the playoffs and keep winning, all those will equalize. Anyone worried about short term flipping, just go prospect. Otherwise, it'll be great for the journey to see where it all ends.

[regularp]

Yordan was trending up in a noticeable way through mid-July. Then he went on the IL with the hand injury and his production nose dived once August hit. He had 30 home runs through July and finished with 37. That's what cooled his prices this season.

He's still a smart buy with quite a bit of upside, imo. If he doesn't get any nagging injuries in the future, he should have at least one 50 HR season. It just takes one monster season for his prices to shoot up.