2022 Spidey Metal

[Brobocop]

Originally Posted by actionbryan

This is either a troll comment, or you are new to trading .

Blanks won’t make you many friends.


Also separate topic , like someone above said, if there was epack Topps Chrome baseball or any optic prism select football, yes , I would be forced into bankruptcy. I’m not sure how that isn’t a thing yet

I literally decline every blank trade without a second thought.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[mjohnatgt]

I'm not a fan of blank trades either, especially from people who lock every card worth more than a buck from being visible. If you're going to send a blank trade, I would at least add something in the comment field about what value you put on the item, so that I could know what type of trade is likely to get accepted.
But for the most part, I ignore blank trades as well.

[One more set]

I’m no troll, I’m new to epack and it seems to be working fine. What’s the problem with open ended trading.

[clearblue]

Originally Posted by mjohnatgt

I'm not a fan of blank trades either, especially from people who lock every card worth more than a buck from being visible.

This annoys me to no end. I'm not going to give you the power of picking what I get in return for a card that you want from me. Nope.

[actionbryan]

Originally Posted by One more set

I’m no troll, I’m new to epack and it seems to be working fine. What’s the problem with open ended trading.

It puts the onus of composing a trade on the owner of a card that YOU want which most people will just decline

I really only mind them if the card is somethjng that everyone on the site wants, like an in demand young gun, if I get a blank on a card that is 2 cents on comc and no or very little achievement value , then it’s not a big deal

[hychang5]

Originally Posted by One more set

I’m no troll, I’m new to epack and it seems to be working fine. What’s the problem with open ended trading.

It’s saying “I want this item(s) from you but want you do to all the work”

At least give some where to start or even in comments what you might have of interest, like “lots of sketches or PMG’s I can move”

[Rootleaf]

This has been an interesting release to watch. Based on the production estimate of 50,000 boxes (a couple of people independently came up with this number including me so I feel pretty good about it) and the statement from UD (see podcast someone referenced several pages back) that 75% was going to epack, approximately 23.4% of the Spider-Man Metal stock is opened and visible on epack. This number is affected by the base and high series being combined so it's a rough estimate. Looking at some of the visible parallels puts the estimate in the low 20s. Counting up the orange parallels visible on epack and comc gives a percentage of 27.4%. You have to consider some cards are locked, sent home, etc. which increases that number. I would estimate about 30%-35% of the epack stock has been opened, probably closer to 35%.

The revenue is pretty staggering when compared to other Marvel epack releases. If 37,500 boxes went to epack, that's $17.8 million when it sells out. By contrast, I estimated about $1 million for the epack release of 2019 Premier. A friend estimated $1.3 million for the epack release of 2020MM.

It will be interesting to see where it goes from here. Will it linger for a couple of months or sit for a while like the older sets did back in the day? I guess it depends on if another Marvel product is released in the next few months. If this is the only Marvel option for the rest of the year I don't think it will last until 2023. Maybe we'll get a surprise set like epack exclusive 2021 Marvel Premier.

[armyml]

Originally Posted by marktheshark

Less than half of my trades have been with reasonable people... While I am fully aware that cards for achievements certainly have a premium over their selling prices on COMC, some people seem to think their low tier characters are worth 20x the selling prices. It really takes the fun out of this and makes it painful to try to work out trades.

It's awful trying to trade an achievement card. People just looking at comc prices trying to tell you what the Gold Bullion still inside Epack and unredeemed is worth. In my opinion the achievement cards should at least be worth a non-bottom tier #'d parallel to someone looking to get the printing plates.

[marktheshark]

Originally Posted by armyml

It's awful trying to trade an achievement card. People just looking at comc prices trying to tell you what the Gold Bullion still inside Epack and unredeemed is worth. In my opinion the achievement cards should at least be worth a non-bottom tier #'d parallel to someone looking to get the printing plates.

Oh for sure - any of the unredeemed Bullions should be worth a few hundred in trade value, minimum.

I was referring to the cards to get a Bullion. For instance, someone will offer to give me a low tier palladium that's worth a couple bucks and want a $100+ PMG in return.

[armyml]

Originally Posted by marktheshark

Oh for sure - any of the unredeemed Bullions should be worth a few hundred in trade value, minimum.

I was referring to the cards to get a Bullion. For instance, someone will offer to give me a low tier palladium that's worth a couple bucks and want a $100+ PMG in return.

Ohhh ohhh no doubt yea that would be very frustrating. I traded in favor a lot to get my Peter Porker and Wolverine to green but definitely not as big a gap as what you are mentioning above. It will be interesting to see perceived trade value on cards since opening packs has slowed down and people are redeeming cards for achievements. Will the gold bullions go up if the big printing plates are still on the board after a long while?

[marktheshark]

Originally Posted by armyml

Ohhh ohhh no doubt yea that would be very frustrating. I traded in favor a lot to get my Peter Porker and Wolverine to green but definitely not as big a gap as what you are mentioning above. It will be interesting to see perceived trade value on cards since opening packs has slowed down and people are redeeming cards for achievements. Will the gold bullions go up if the big printing plates are still on the board after a long while?

Logically, I would think so. As of yesterday I think roughly 20% of the plates had been redeemed and I think all 4 Spider-Man's were still available.

[DynaEtch]

Originally Posted by Rootleaf

This has been an interesting release to watch. Based on the production estimate of 50,000 boxes (a couple of people independently came up with this number including me so I feel pretty good about it) and the statement from UD (see podcast someone referenced several pages back) that 75% was going to epack, approximately 23.4% of the Spider-Man Metal stock is opened and visible on epack. This number is affected by the base and high series being combined so it's a rough estimate. Looking at some of the visible parallels puts the estimate in the low 20s. Counting up the orange parallels visible on epack and comc gives a percentage of 27.4%. You have to consider some cards are locked, sent home, etc. which increases that number. I would estimate about 30%-35% of the epack stock has been opened, probably closer to 35%.

The revenue is pretty staggering when compared to other Marvel epack releases. If 37,500 boxes went to epack, that's $17.8 million when it sells out. By contrast, I estimated about $1 million for the epack release of 2019 Premier. A friend estimated $1.3 million for the epack release of 2020MM.

It will be interesting to see where it goes from here. Will it linger for a couple of months or sit for a while like the older sets did back in the day? I guess it depends on if another Marvel product is released in the next few months. If this is the only Marvel option for the rest of the year I don't think it will last until 2023. Maybe we'll get a surprise set like epack exclusive 2021 Marvel Premier.

The 25%-35% opened on epack estimate is surprising to me. All this craze around Spidey Metal, and just a dent in the overall product. The high price tag must be keeping many away (including me).

But I have no doubt it’ll eventually sell out like everything else. It is staggering how much revenue this set must be bringing in for UD. I can only imagine, if you are UD and see some sets yield one or two million, and something like this yielding upwards of 20M or whatever, that their focus might be to repeat this sort of set moving forward. The downside is the market will probably see more PMGs as UD milks it, higher print runs, and this sort of rehashed art set, since the market throws money at it regardless of the originality of the art.

[sixtyfeet]

Since others are having some success trading, almost everything in my epack account including the PMGs are available. I'm looking to trade for Peter Porker, Jessica Jones, and Black Widow base/high number and numbered Porkers (to buy or trade for).

ID: DATSYUK

[glorbgorb]

Originally Posted by DynaEtch

It is staggering how much revenue this set must be bringing in for UD. I can only imagine, if you are UD and see some sets yield one or two million, and something like this yielding upwards of 20M or whatever, that their focus might be to repeat this sort of set moving forward.

I would fear future pack/box prices on ePack more than anything. Surely they pay attention to secondary market box prices prior to ePack releases. I, for one, thought boxes would be $325 tops. Why they didn't have higher prices all along is bewildering--I read that their hockey ePack box prices are closer to secondary physical box prices.

All that said, though Marvel Annual is typically framed as a lower-end set, that means that X-Men Metal may have been the last relatively cheap ePack product.

[DynaEtch]

Originally Posted by glorbgorb

I would fear future pack/box prices on ePack more than anything. Surely they pay attention to secondary market box prices prior to ePack releases. I, for one, thought boxes would be $325 tops. Why they didn't have higher prices all along is bewildering--I read that their hockey ePack box prices are closer to secondary physical box prices.

All that said, though Marvel Annual is typically framed as a lower-end set, that means that X-Men Metal may have been the last relatively cheap ePack product.

Very true, add high box prices to the list of things to expect moving forward. It only makes sense for UD based on how much they'll make off this. I cringe thinking about how 2022 Marvel Masterpieces will be priced, the set Im most looking forward to. *Maybe* it wont be quite as nuts because it's not a PMG release, but who knows. Probably at least over 300 a box.

[aks129]

This product will be around for months people cant afford to buy cases and the high price scares off non enthusiasts, ultimately UD shot themselves in the foot by pricing this 3x as much as it should have been and now they will be stuck with over 50% unsold product that lingers for months if not longer. Look at purples on epack, around 20+ purples have been pulled thats a drop in the bucket out of over 200

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by DynaEtch

The 25%-35% opened on epack estimate is surprising to me. All this craze around Spidey Metal, and just a dent in the overall product. The high price tag must be keeping many away (including me).

But I have no doubt it’ll eventually sell out like everything else. It is staggering how much revenue this set must be bringing in for UD. I can only imagine, if you are UD and see some sets yield one or two million, and something like this yielding upwards of 20M or whatever, that their focus might be to repeat this sort of set moving forward. The downside is the market will probably see more PMGs as UD milks it, higher print runs, and this sort of rehashed art set, since the market throws money at it regardless of the originality of the art.

It's a spider-man themed set. He's as popular as ever. I wouldn't assume similar success with other types of sets. Not unless a set with a big name artist with high quality artwork is released.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by DynaEtch

Very true, add high box prices to the list of things to expect moving forward. It only makes sense for UD based on how much they'll make off this. I cringe thinking about how 2022 Marvel Masterpieces will be priced, the set Im most looking forward to. *Maybe* it wont be quite as nuts because it's not a PMG release, but who knows. Probably at least over 300 a box.

Only $300? I remember MM16 being $250 at my LCS.

Although, I'm guessing MM22 will have a higher print run and longer odds -- less bang for your buck.

A lot of it depends on the artist and quality of artwork, of course.

[DynaEtch]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

It's a spider-man themed set. He's as popular as ever. I wouldn't assume similar success with other types of sets. Not unless a set with a big name artist with high quality artwork is released.

One would think. However if I’m not mistaken, Fleer Ultra Avengers was already being sold at 399 a box at preorder at the competitor, and temporarily sold out (and with how Marvel preorders work, even that price could creep up more). Seems to be the standard these days for any mid to high end major Marvel release.

I think 2020 MM was 250 box. 2022 will certainly be more. I can hope for 300-350, but I’m doubtful. What’ll likely happen: physical might start around that much on preorder. Then the stretch of marked up, sell out, mark up, sell out, mark up, sell out etc, until you finally get to the point where it’s physically released and who knows what boxes go for…500-600+? (Keep in mind sealed boxes of 2018, 2020 MM currently go for ~$1k, and 2016 MM ~4k-5k: people see $$$ signs even just saving the boxes). So by the time UD releases epack, secondary market is like 500+ a box, and so UD bases epack on that accordingly. We’ll see if that happens or not, but I imagine it’s very possible. Days of 200-300 for a box of MM are over, we suddenly jumped to like double that.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by DynaEtch

One would think. However if I’m not mistaken, Fleer Ultra Avengers was already being sold at 399 a box at preorder at the competitor, and temporarily sold out (and with how Marvel preorders work, even that price could creep up more). Seems to be the standard these days for any mid to high end major Marvel release.

I think 2020 MM was 250 box. 2022 will certainly be more. I can hope for 300-350, but I’m doubtful. What’ll likely happen: physical might start around that much on preorder. Then the stretch of marked up, sell out, mark up, sell out, mark up, sell out etc, until you finally get to the point where it’s physically released and who knows what boxes go for…500+? (Keep in mind sealed boxes of 2018, 2020 MM currently go for ~$1k, and 2016 MM ~4k- people see $$$ signs even just saving the boxes). So by the time UD releases epack, secondary market is like 500+ a box, and so UD bases epack on that accordingly. We’ll see if that happens or not, but I imagine it’s very possible. Days of 200-300 for a box of MM are over, we suddenly jumped to like double that.

4k for a box of MM16 -- wow. I've got an unopened pack -- you think that's $333? Lol

Yeah, the Avengers have catchet. Not Spidey catchet, but good catchet due to the MCU. It's Fleer Ultra, though -- not metal universe with the PMGs. The artwork and characters used in the sell sheet didn't look so good to me. It'll be interesting to see how much traction it'll have.

[baseballbunez]

Originally Posted by aks129

This product will be around for months people cant afford to buy cases and the high price scares off non enthusiasts, ultimately UD shot themselves in the foot by pricing this 3x as much as it should have been and now they will be stuck with over 50% unsold product that lingers for months if not longer. Look at purples on epack, around 20+ purples have been pulled thats a drop in the bucket out of over 200

You think only ~20+ have been pulled?!? I pulled 4 myself and pulled all off epack, and I know of at least a dozen others pulled off epack as well, and that is just the ones I know of am sure there is more.

This is easily 50-60% sold out by now.

[DynaEtch]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

4k for a box of MM16 -- wow. I've got an unopened pack -- you think that's $333? Lol

Yeah, the Avengers have catchet. Not Spidey catchet, but good catchet due to the MCU. It's Fleer Ultra, though -- not metal universe with the PMGs. The artwork and characters used in the sell sheet didn't look so good to me. It'll be interesting to see how much traction it'll have.

Unopened packs can be hard to price- they arent as routinely collected/invested in/comp'd as sealed boxes, plus people usually just assume the sketch/box hit wont be in the unopened pack. However, 2016 MM is surely a desirable pack to have, and I would estimate multiple hundreds. Your 333 estimate is probably close to value.

I get what you're saying about it being dependent on art etc- the art is important to me, but Im not convinced the money coming into this hobby even cares all that much. Heck it doesnt seem to even mater if it's rehashed art, case in point these metal sets. There is the investor crowd, which realizes boxes of MM will increase in price no matter what, causing preoders to get jacked up in price, there is the epack gambling crowd, which at times can treat the cards as pawns for gambling and/or achievement hunting. It's a lot of checking off boxes: is it X character, is it Y parallel...ok it's valuable. As long as the art isnt basically hideous looking, the art is just a superficial secondary factor (and Im not convinced it were a hideous looking Spiderman pmg, for instance, that it would even matter that much- still would go for a lot).

Basically regardless of the artist chosen for 2022 MM, the set will be hot either way, is what Im saying. The hobby knows that whoever is chosen, UD picked them and entrusted them to be the artist for Masterpieces, that's what matters to a lot of people. It's the official Masterpieces set. The tier 4s will go for a lot. The autos will sell well, etc- this can be predicted with great confidence without even seeing a single card. Now Im not saying these will end up close to 2016 MM territory where boxes now go for $4k- that was a legendary set by Jusko- but these will do just fine, and follow the trend of other mid-high level Marvel. I could see boxes 400-500+ by the time of release.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by DynaEtch

Unopened packs can be hard to price- they arent as routinely collected/invested in/comp'd as sealed boxes, plus people usually just assume the sketch/box hit wont be in the unopened pack. However, 2016 MM is surely a desirable pack to have, and I would estimate multiple hundreds. Your 333 estimate is probably close to value.

I get what you're saying about it being dependent on art etc- the art is important to me, but Im not convinced the money coming into this hobby even cares all that much. Heck it doesnt seem to even mater if it's rehashed art, case in point these metal sets. There is the investor crowd, which realizes boxes of MM will increase in price no matter what, causing preoders to get jacked up in price, there is the epack gambling crowd, which at times can treat the cards as pawns for gambling and/or achievement hunting. It's a lot of checking off boxes: is it X character, is it Y parallel...ok it's valuable. As long as the art isnt basically hideous looking, the art is just a superficial secondary factor (and Im not convinced it were a hideous looking Spiderman pmg, for instance, that it would even matter that much- still would go for a lot).

Basically regardless of the artist chosen for 2022 MM, the set will be hot either way, is what Im saying. The hobby knows that whoever is chosen, UD picked them and entrusted them to be the artist for Masterpieces, that's what matters to a lot of people. It's the official Masterpieces set. The tier 4s will go for a lot. The autos will sell well, etc- this can be predicted with great confidence without even seeing a single card. Now Im not saying these will end up close to 2016 MM territory where boxes now go for $4k- that was a legendary set by Jusko- but these will do just fine, and follow the trend of other mid-high level Marvel. I could see boxes 400-500+ by the time of release.

I guess I'm one of only a few who is picky on artwork. I'm glad I loaded up on MM16 cards -- it was epic release. Prices are through the roof now. I don't really understand this ultra modern market -- cards are automatically priced at record highs without consideration for quality. It's some weird stuff.

[DynaEtch]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

I guess I'm one of only a few who is picky on artwork. I'm glad I loaded up on MM16 cards -- it was epic release. Prices are through the roof now. I don't really understand this ultra modern market -- cards are automatically priced at record highs without consideration for quality. It's some weird stuff.

You sure picked a good one to load up on

I think you're right about the automatic pricing, and Im baffled also, but just how it is I guess. We're at the point of...

Mediocre (or rehashed) art? Will sell just fine, possibly well.

Outstanding art/famous artist? A nice bonus that could translate to even higher prices, à la 2016 MM.

So while art could theoretically move the price needle in the higher direction, it doesnt seem to move the needle in the negative direction as much, in the modern market. The 'type' or brand of set is just as important if not more important- people just know that MM is valued higher than Marvel Annual, without seeing a single card of either.

Edit: sorry dont mean to derail this thread into a talk about MM, I realize it's a Spidey metal thread, so back to that talk

[glorbgorb]

Originally Posted by aks129

Look at purples on epack, around 20+ purples have been pulled thats a drop in the bucket out of over 200

Right, but that's 10% already in, what, a week-and-a-half?