Mbappe Cyrillic on PWCC Premier: Where does it land?

[SoccerRCs]

Hey guys. Full disclosure, I own an ungraded Mbappe Cyrillic. I bought it years ago in the belief that it would eventually be the most valuable WC Prizm parallel aside from the gold. Why? Simply because, while you will see plenty more blue, purple, green, orange or whatever other color parallels for the rest of Mbappe’s career, you will never see another card with his name written in Cyrillic script.

Current bid is 10k. I assume it’s in Premier because they think it can go over 25k. Any guesses as to where this one lands?

[BiggNuttz]

I have done a lot of analysis on the Cyrillic since they were released, and happy to offer some analytics and a few opinions.

For me, Panini is much more difficult to get my head around, in comparison to Topps. Panini never gives you specific odds/print runs for many cards, so it leaves everyone guessing. With the Cyrillic cards, the best proxy has been to use the PSA population reports for the most heavily graded cards, and see where the Cyrillic fall in relation to known/numbered parallels. From what I have seen, the Cyrillic print run is probably +/- 5 compared to the Camouflage which are numbered to 20, meaning the Cyrillic are probably between 15~25 printed. I came to this conclusion, simply by looking at the most heavily graded cards, and seeing how many Cyrillic were graded compared to the numbered parallels. For those that care, here is a brief synopsis. These are all from the PSA population report. I did not use BGS, SGC or any other company. This was for the sake of simplicity. The PSA numbers are as follows:

Messi: Camo 9 Cyrillic 7
Salah: Camo 5 Cyrillic 7
Mbappe: Camo 7 Cyrillic 8
Ronaldo: Camo 8 Cyrillic 8

A couple of other random observations. Outside of these players, the number of Cyrillic graded vs. other cards varies widely. Some have 3 Cyrillic with zero Camo, whilst other will have 5 Camo and zero Cyrillic. Neymar has had zero Cyrillic graded which is very surprising to me. The Cyrillic seem to grade very well. The proportion of PSA 10's seems to fall in the 60%~70% range.

A couple of general thoughts about these cards. I think that in general, the value falls a bit on the lower side of the Camos, simply because they are not numbered, which makes it a bit harder for potential buyers to understand, so holds them back a little bit. I also think that the Cyrillic cards in general are easy to miss compared to a coloured parallel. I think that this will mean that many cards will be stuck in a box of commons in a shoebox in some kid's closet in Vienna or Montevideo, never to see the light of day until they are discovered some time in the future. Because of this, I think they might end up being a bit rarer and more difficult to find compared to the known print run. I also think that the name in Cyrillic is neither a big positive or negative for the cards potential value. I don't see a large pool of collectors who would value the Cyrillic for this feature other than the absolute rarity.

Given the above facts, and opinions, where do I think that leaves the value? I think that it will probably fall a little bit below the comparable Camo version, simply due to the fact that it is not numbered. I have six historical data points for graded Mbappe Camos as follows:

20 March 2021 PWC PSA 10 $25,656
22 May 2021 Goldin PSA 10 $26,400
18 Sep 2021 PWCC BGS 9.5 $20,400
17 Dec 2021 PWCC BGS 9.5 $13,500
10 March 2022 PWCC BGS 9.5 (card #01/20) $22,000
1 May 2022 Goldin BGS 9 $10,800

From the above data, I would extrapolate that a PSA 10 Cyrillic right now, should be +/- $20,000. I arrive at this simply by valuing it below a PSA 10 Camo, and also because the market is lower since those last sales. High end will hold up better, but it will still be a bit softer than the peak numbers.

Regards

[k13]

$20k for a $10 card.
Gotta love it.

[SoccerRCs]

Originally Posted by BiggNuttz

I have done a lot of analysis on the Cyrillic since they were released, and happy to offer some analytics and a few opinions.

For me, Panini is much more difficult to get my head around, in comparison to Topps. Panini never gives you specific odds/print runs for many cards, so it leaves everyone guessing. With the Cyrillic cards, the best proxy has been to use the PSA population reports for the most heavily graded cards, and see where the Cyrillic fall in relation to known/numbered parallels. From what I have seen, the Cyrillic print run is probably +/- 5 compared to the Camouflage which are numbered to 20, meaning the Cyrillic are probably between 15~25 printed. I came to this conclusion, simply by looking at the most heavily graded cards, and seeing how many Cyrillic were graded compared to the numbered parallels. For those that care, here is a brief synopsis. These are all from the PSA population report. I did not use BGS, SGC or any other company. This was for the sake of simplicity. The PSA numbers are as follows:

Messi: Camo 9 Cyrillic 7
Salah: Camo 5 Cyrillic 7
Mbappe: Camo 7 Cyrillic 8
Ronaldo: Camo 8 Cyrillic 8

A couple of other random observations. Outside of these players, the number of Cyrillic graded vs. other cards varies widely. Some have 3 Cyrillic with zero Camo, whilst other will have 5 Camo and zero Cyrillic. Neymar has had zero Cyrillic graded which is very surprising to me. The Cyrillic seem to grade very well. The proportion of PSA 10's seems to fall in the 60%~70% range.

A couple of general thoughts about these cards. I think that in general, the value falls a bit on the lower side of the Camos, simply because they are not numbered, which makes it a bit harder for potential buyers to understand, so holds them back a little bit. I also think that the Cyrillic cards in general are easy to miss compared to a coloured parallel. I think that this will mean that many cards will be stuck in a box of commons in a shoebox in some kid's closet in Vienna or Montevideo, never to see the light of day until they are discovered some time in the future. Because of this, I think they might end up being a bit rarer and more difficult to find compared to the known print run. I also think that the name in Cyrillic is neither a big positive or negative for the cards potential value. I don't see a large pool of collectors who would value the Cyrillic for this feature other than the absolute rarity.

Given the above facts, and opinions, where do I think that leaves the value? I think that it will probably fall a little bit below the comparable Camo version, simply due to the fact that it is not numbered. I have six historical data points for graded Mbappe Camos as follows:

20 March 2021 PWC PSA 10 $25,656
22 May 2021 Goldin PSA 10 $26,400
18 Sep 2021 PWCC BGS 9.5 $20,400
17 Dec 2021 PWCC BGS 9.5 $13,500
10 March 2022 PWCC BGS 9.5 (card #01/20) $22,000
1 May 2022 Goldin BGS 9 $10,800

From the above data, I would extrapolate that a PSA 10 Cyrillic right now, should be +/- $20,000. I arrive at this simply by valuing it below a PSA 10 Camo, and also because the market is lower since those last sales. High end will hold up better, but it will still be a bit softer than the peak numbers.

Regards

Awesome write up. Thanks so much for the analysis. I’ll be curious where it closes. I think 20-25k neighborhood is a steal. I’d also add that I generally see some of the negatives you brought up about it from a different angle. The fact that it can be easily missed as a base card adds to its potential to be special in the long run. It adds to the story behind the card. Also, and I think this is generally true across all sports, there is an incredible opportunity in case hits that are not numbered. The less sophisticated crowd thinks only things with serial number are rare. But, especially, pre-boom case hits (as they were printed less than current case hits) where the print run is likely sub 30-40 cards are largely missed by the crowd. Anyways, appreciate the analysis.

[boxbuster7]

were these cards inserted into the normal hobby boxes as case hits? pretty awesome. never knew they existed till now.

[SoccerRCs]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

were these cards inserted into the normal hobby boxes as case hits? pretty awesome. never knew they existed till now.

Yes they were inserted into hobby boxes. Every player in the base set was done in Cyrillic. 300 card base set so super tough pull. The fact that many people don’t even realize what this card is, adds to its potential legendary status. I think of all the low pop WC Prizm stuff, it is by far the most undervalued. It has been gaining traction though and catching up to lower serial numbers. That being said, every time it jumps, I think to myself, “Nice jump but still incredibly undervalued.”

[LittleJimmies]

Originally Posted by SoccerRCs

Awesome write up. Thanks so much for the analysis. I’ll be curious where it closes. I think 20-25k neighborhood is a steal. I’d also add that I generally see some of the negatives you brought up about it from a different angle. The fact that it can be easily missed as a base card adds to its potential to be special in the long run. It adds to the story behind the card. Also, and I think this is generally true across all sports, there is an incredible opportunity in case hits that are not numbered. The less sophisticated crowd thinks only things with serial number are rare. But, especially, pre-boom case hits (as they were printed less than current case hits) where the print run is likely sub 30-40 cards are largely missed by the crowd. Anyways, appreciate the analysis.

Originally Posted by SoccerRCs

Yes they were inserted into hobby boxes. Every player in the base set was done in Cyrillic. 300 card base set so super tough pull. The fact that many people don’t even realize what this card is, adds to its potential legendary status. I think of all the low pop WC Prizm stuff, it is by far the most undervalued. It has been gaining traction though and catching up to lower serial numbers. That being said, every time it jumps, I think to myself, “Nice jump but still incredibly undervalued.”

Man, I have sooooo many situations where I thought the exact same as what you are thinking here. Sadly I have learned that being more thoughtful and ahead of the layman adds absolutely zero value to cards. That the Cyrillic is cool and sneaky SP will be completely lost on nearly everyone, meanng it will continue to be undervalued by objective measures. Serial numbers and logos are all most people see.

[YayNJ]

[BiggNuttz]

Originally Posted by LittleJimmies

Man, I have sooooo many situations where I thought the exact same as what you are thinking here. Sadly I have learned that being more thoughtful and ahead of the layman adds absolutely zero value to cards. That the Cyrillic is cool and sneaky SP will be completely lost on nearly everyone, meaning it will continue to be undervalued by objective measures. Serial numbers and logos are all most people see.

You have summarised in four sentences, what has taken me forty years of collecting in various areas to realise! Modern collectors/investors or whatever you prefer to call them, have no interest in taking time to study and understand something and how rare it is. If it is not serial numbered, in your face, and what everyone else is chasing, then the value always lags way behind, and it never catches up. Anything that needs to be explained to be understood = bad and undervalued. If it cannot be posted and hyped on Instagram in 20 words or less with fire emojis, then it has no/minimal value

Regards

[yiguiri2002]

I collected the whole team set for the 2018 World Cup, being a case hit it means the print run is around 20. Really hard to get.

That being said, the price is ridiculous. Aesthetically speaking, cards are pretty meh.

[forest]

Wonder if there will be Arabic text parallels for the 2022 set? Those would probably stick out more

[Gin&Juice]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

I collected the whole team set for the 2018 World Cup, being a case hit it means the print run is around 20. Really hard to get.

That being said, the price is ridiculous. Aesthetically speaking, cards are pretty meh.

I think this is is what holds back the value on the Cyrillic. People pay a premium for gold, color match, logos, colorblast, etc, because those cards catch the eye. The Cyrillic really don’t.

[Ianhatcher]

Originally Posted by Gin&Juice

I think this is is what holds back the value on the Cyrillic. People pay a premium for gold, color match, logos, colorblast, etc, because those cards catch the eye. The Cyrillic really don’t.

This. The non-numbered SPs that matter to most people catch the eye like a variation or Galactic.

I don't care about this card one bit. The fact that there maybe only 20 of them means nothing to me. Do I really care about a parallel that all they did was spell his name in another language? Not one bit.

[YayNJ]

Same, it's completely meh. OP has had a good go at giving it some hype though

[SoccerRCs]

Still a believer. : ) At the end of Mbappe’s career line up the 20 bazillion oranges or blues or reds or whatever across all products. Then line up the Cyrillic text cards.

In some ways I get the eye catching answer. At the same time, pretty sure a certain card is about to sell for 10 million that doesn’t “catch the eye.” Lastly, the best opportunities in cards are typically where the prevailing wisdom suddenly gets turned on it’s head. 4 years ago this forum was loaded with “Soccer cards suck. They never go up. I’m selling my whole collection and getting out.”

Still think in time it surpasses all parallels but gold (and gold vinyl).

[SoccerRCs]

Originally Posted by forest

Wonder if there will be Arabic text parallels for the 2022 set? Those would probably stick out more

I hope they do.

[fadster]

Originally Posted by BiggNuttz

I have done a lot of analysis on the Cyrillic since they were released, and happy to offer some analytics and a few opinions.

For me, Panini is much more difficult to get my head around, in comparison to Topps. Panini never gives you specific odds/print runs for many cards, so it leaves everyone guessing. With the Cyrillic cards, the best proxy has been to use the PSA population reports for the most heavily graded cards, and see where the Cyrillic fall in relation to known/numbered parallels. From what I have seen, the Cyrillic print run is probably +/- 5 compared to the Camouflage which are numbered to 20, meaning the Cyrillic are probably between 15~25 printed. I came to this conclusion, simply by looking at the most heavily graded cards, and seeing how many Cyrillic were graded compared to the numbered parallels. For those that care, here is a brief synopsis. These are all from the PSA population report. I did not use BGS, SGC or any other company. This was for the sake of simplicity. The PSA numbers are as follows:

Messi: Camo 9 Cyrillic 7
Salah: Camo 5 Cyrillic 7
Mbappe: Camo 7 Cyrillic 8
Ronaldo: Camo 8 Cyrillic 8

A couple of other random observations. Outside of these players, the number of Cyrillic graded vs. other cards varies widely. Some have 3 Cyrillic with zero Camo, whilst other will have 5 Camo and zero Cyrillic. Neymar has had zero Cyrillic graded which is very surprising to me. The Cyrillic seem to grade very well. The proportion of PSA 10's seems to fall in the 60%~70% range.

A couple of general thoughts about these cards. I think that in general, the value falls a bit on the lower side of the Camos, simply because they are not numbered, which makes it a bit harder for potential buyers to understand, so holds them back a little bit. I also think that the Cyrillic cards in general are easy to miss compared to a coloured parallel. I think that this will mean that many cards will be stuck in a box of commons in a shoebox in some kid's closet in Vienna or Montevideo, never to see the light of day until they are discovered some time in the future. Because of this, I think they might end up being a bit rarer and more difficult to find compared to the known print run. I also think that the name in Cyrillic is neither a big positive or negative for the cards potential value. I don't see a large pool of collectors who would value the Cyrillic for this feature other than the absolute rarity.

Given the above facts, and opinions, where do I think that leaves the value? I think that it will probably fall a little bit below the comparable Camo version, simply due to the fact that it is not numbered. I have six historical data points for graded Mbappe Camos as follows:

20 March 2021 PWC PSA 10 $25,656
22 May 2021 Goldin PSA 10 $26,400
18 Sep 2021 PWCC BGS 9.5 $20,400
17 Dec 2021 PWCC BGS 9.5 $13,500
10 March 2022 PWCC BGS 9.5 (card #01/20) $22,000
1 May 2022 Goldin BGS 9 $10,800

From the above data, I would extrapolate that a PSA 10 Cyrillic right now, should be +/- $20,000. I arrive at this simply by valuing it below a PSA 10 Camo, and also because the market is lower since those last sales. High end will hold up better, but it will still be a bit softer than the peak numbers.

Regards

Just to add a fresh data point, a BGS 9.5 Camo went for $15k at Goldin last night

[BiggNuttz]

Just to confirm, the card sold for $18,000 including buyers premium (I believe, although it is not completely clear on the website). Pretty much bang in line with my original estimate of +/- $20,000. It probably ended on the low side, just because the market in general seems to be quiet, and buyers do not feel the need to be aggressive.

I mentioned this previously in another thread, but I think it bears repeating here. If you are currently looking to sell any middle to higher end cards, you are taking a MASSIVE risk running them at auction. Your best bet is to either just continue to hold in your collection, or if you really need/want to sell, then I would only go with a negotiated sale. You want to be able to control the variables, not let something get auctioned off into a soft market, during the summer holidays. As always, just my opinion.

Regards

[gomiamigo]

The high-end cards I own I've seen auctioned have been going at record or near-record prices, fwiw.

[JWBlue]

What was the card grade? 10 I assume.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by forest

Wonder if there will be Arabic text parallels for the 2022 set? Those would probably stick out more

At this point we can't even be sure that Panini is going to release the World Cup set before the tournament actually starts

But yeah, Arabic parallels would be cool....

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by mfw13

At this point we can't even be sure that Panini is going to release the World Cup set before the tournament actually starts

But yeah, Arabic parallels would be cool....

has it even shown up on a launch calendar yet?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[BiggNuttz]

I just wanted to bump this thread as another PSA 10 is being offered in PWCC's Premier Auction closing on 22nd September. SoccerRCs, is this your card following on the sale of the previous card? It will be interesting to see how this one fares relative to the previous recent sale at $18,000. I would hazard a guess that this one will be a bit lower, likely more in the $15,000 range.

Regards

[SoccerRCs]

Originally Posted by BiggNuttz

I just wanted to bump this thread as another PSA 10 is being offered in PWCC's Premier Auction closing on 22nd September. SoccerRCs, is this your card following on the sale of the previous card? It will be interesting to see how this one fares relative to the previous recent sale at $18,000. I would hazard a guess that this one will be a bit lower, likely more in the $15,000 range.

Regards

It is not my card. I'm an investor/collector. I bought mine 4 years ago and plan to continue to hold for a minimum of 2-3 more years as I continue to believe it is among the most undervalued cards in the Prizm set for all the reasons I stated above. I did not see this card in the auction though till you alerted me. I'll take a look.

Agree with you this will be lower. Never a great idea to piggy back auction a rarer card like this.

[BiggNuttz]

The final sale price for the second card at PWCC (PA16 lot #364) was $12,000 inclusive of buyers premium. That is a 33% drop from the previous sale of $18,000, just one month prior. I think there are likely multiple reasons for the drop in price achieved, some specific to this card, some more related to the card market/soccer card market in general.

Regards