The Official Stock Market Thread - Page 153

nman84 · 08-28-2022, 05:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

I’m a year away from complete forgiveness through PSLF. This pause is going to save me at least ~$60k if they resume in January. I am certainly not hurting for money, and I thank uncle Joe for his stupidity throughout all of this.

That’s awesome, my wife is also on track for complete loan forgiveness in less than year. All that money she has saved has helped fund retirement accounts, which she was way behind on due to her career.

jcardstore · 08-29-2022, 06:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Hyperbole doesn’t make your argument any stronger. I am very much net long with just a couple short positions for the next 3-6 months.

I think from a risk reward perspective net short is better than net long through the rest of this year.

I'll be more clear in my argument: the fed will "pivot" and it may be bullish for risk assets but it will not be bullish for the economy. It will mean that the economy has slowed to a point that raising anymore will break stuff.

The market realizes we are close to that. Commodity drops over the last couple months haven't been reflected in CPI yet so that's set to fall off a cliff. Unemployment numbers are going to start ticking up here soon and depending on your view on job openings (lots of smart people think the number is total crap) the economy can't really take much more in the form of hikes.

None of that is even to the point of the cost to service the debt (at 3.5% FFR it's > 30% of tax receipts) and no matter how many more IRS agents you hire it's not gonna solve that problem.

So there are 3 options when it comes to the fed raising as it relates to debt servicing costs

1) Self destruction
2) Stop raising and shortly after start cutting again
3) Lower government spending

finfangfan · 08-31-2022, 05:32 AM

NVDA now even lower than it was last week if you guys want to get back in. It’s now under $160 but my DCA is way above that 😢

Josh611 · 08-31-2022, 08:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by finfangfan

NVDA now even lower than it was last week if you guys want to get back in. It’s now under $160 but my DCA is way above that 😢

I nibbled again yesterday.

I have to say, very impressed with how well GFS has done this year when most Semi stocks have struggled. Especially since they went public last year.

xbignick · 08-31-2022, 04:51 PM

Took another hit AH after some news.

finfangfan · 08-31-2022, 06:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xbignick

Took another hit AH after some news.

Wow … Nvidia stock falls after U.S. government restricts chip sales to China

xbignick · 08-31-2022, 07:04 PM

.........

Charismatic44th · 08-31-2022, 08:44 PM

Good time to buy NVDA shares or hold off for now?

Josh611 · 08-31-2022, 08:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by finfangfan

Wow … Nvidia stock falls after U.S. government restricts chip sales to China

Guess that helps explain why Pelosi sold 25k shares at a loss a few months back.

JMarchand1981 · 08-31-2022, 08:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Josh611

Guess that helps explain why Pelosi sold 25k shares at a loss a few months back.

He had plenty of time to get in and get out though. We have made bundles and bundles of money on NVDA this year. It's still a winner. It might just crater before it climbs again.

Josh611 · 08-31-2022, 08:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JMarchand1981

He had plenty of time to get in and get out though. We have made bundles and bundles of money on NVDA this year. It's still a winner. It might just crater before it climbs again.

Yeah, very true. But to think that he didn’t have that knowledge when making the trade…

To the guy who asked if it was time to buy, I would say so. Don’t expect an immediate return though. Gonna have to be patient with this one. Probably gonna get rocked tomorrow. Not the market environment where you want to have bad news.

Leaps are probably gonna be where the real value is at

Donkaylove · 08-31-2022, 09:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Charismatic44th

Good time to buy NVDA shares or hold off for now?

it has to shed 20%, you can buy around 120

KhalDrogo · 09-01-2022, 05:47 AM

Another major China lockdown. But don’t worry. The factories can continue operating as long as the employees live in the factory and don’t leave.

JMarchand1981 · 09-01-2022, 06:58 AM

My take on NVDA. You guys know I love NVDA.

I am stealing my own work from 1 am this morning here, so bear with me.

$7B the approx. $27B in NVDAs revenue came from china. NVDA closing price was $150.xx. The drop should be about 25% since that is approximately the revenue percentage. It isn't linear but it's generally pretty close.

Should drop to about $112 or so.

finfangfan · 09-01-2022, 07:43 AM

It’s inching back up a bit premarket (currently $144 at 8:40) so will be interesting to see how this swings today. But I’m leaning toward adding a bit more here.

finfangfan · 09-01-2022, 08:52 AM

Dipping below $140 now… I have $1500 freed up for this and just nibbled one share.

xbignick · 09-01-2022, 12:31 PM

More BRKB, VOO this morning. Exchanged some META for NVDA way too early.

NCtheBBcradle · 09-01-2022, 01:29 PM

Dumped my NVDA this morning at 140 and started to 2nd-guess...then watched it just keep going. Good company, the fed news is a tough pill. Got out of a couple other positions too, holding on others.

xbignick · 09-01-2022, 02:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NCtheBBcradle

Dumped my NVDA this morning at 140 and started to 2nd-guess...then watched it just keep going. Good company, the fed news is a tough pill. Got out of a couple other positions too, holding on others.

Almost back there now.

JMarchand1981 · 09-01-2022, 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NCtheBBcradle

Dumped my NVDA this morning at 140 and started to 2nd-guess...then watched it just keep going. Good company, the fed news is a tough pill. Got out of a couple other positions too, holding on others.

But why sell into weakness? You wanted to sell two weeks ago.

JMarchand1981 · 09-02-2022, 08:05 AM

I won't get into the numbers but the jobs report was solid. Market is green but that is fools gold. This jobs report just gives the green light for The Fed to increase rates. Trade this report. I wouldn't be opening to many big positions based on it.

This is just my take. Definitely do what you feel, but i think a month from now the market (my benchmark is the S&P) will be lower than it is today.

Josh611 · 09-02-2022, 08:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JMarchand1981

I won't get into the numbers but the jobs report was solid. Market is green but that is fools gold. This jobs report just gives the green light for The Fed to increase rates. Trade this report. I wouldn't be opening to many big positions based on it.

This is just my take. Definitely do what you feel, but i think a month from now the market (my benchmark is the S&P) will be lower than it is today.

I would have expected red after a beat on the jobs report to be honest.

JMarchand1981 · 09-02-2022, 08:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Josh611

I would have expected red after a beat on the jobs report to be honest.

Same. Also did you see the June revision??

They revised from 398k to 293k.So you are telling me that they missed the real number by over 25%? I sense shenanigans.

Josh611 · 09-02-2022, 08:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JMarchand1981

Same. Also did you see the June revision??

They revised from 398k to 293k.So you are telling me that they missed the real number by over 25%? I sense shenanigans.

Yes I did. Thats quite the variance. July was only 2K off.

I don’t know what to believe with some of these statistics anymore to be honest. Job openings, rent prices etc. Would be curious if someone actually took time to revamp the way these numbers are calculated how much they would change.

One of those scenarios where they’ve been doing the same thing for so long and haven’t updated the process with the new technology we have.

jcardstore · 09-02-2022, 10:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Josh611

Yes I did. Thats quite the variance. July was only 2K off.

I don’t know what to believe with some of these statistics anymore to be honest. Job openings, rent prices etc. Would be curious if someone actually took time to revamp the way these numbers are calculated how much they would change.

One of those scenarios where they’ve been doing the same thing for so long and haven’t updated the process with the new technology we have.

They don't want to update the process because it makes them look bad.

They revise GDP for years afterwards lol

08-31-2022, 04:51 PM	#3805
xbignick Member Join Date: Jul 2010 Location: New Jersey Posts: 29,309 xxbignick	Took another hit AH after some news. __________________ @xxbignick on twitter

08-31-2022, 07:04 PM	#3807
xbignick Member Join Date: Jul 2010 Location: New Jersey Posts: 29,309 xxbignick	......... __________________ @xxbignick on twitter Last edited by xbignick; 08-31-2022 at 07:12 PM.

09-01-2022, 05:47 AM	#3813
KhalDrogo Member Join Date: Aug 2017 Posts: 41,387	Another major China lockdown. But don’t worry. The factories can continue operating as long as the employees live in the factory and don’t leave. __________________ I love PSA!

09-01-2022, 12:31 PM	#3817
xbignick Member Join Date: Jul 2010 Location: New Jersey Posts: 29,309 xxbignick	More BRKB, VOO this morning. Exchanged some META for NVDA way too early. __________________ @xxbignick on twitter

08-31-2022, 05:32 AM	#3803
finfangfan Member Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 11,849	NVDA now even lower than it was last week if you guys want to get back in. It’s now under $160 but my DCA is way above that 😢

08-31-2022, 08:44 PM	#3808
Charismatic44th Member Join Date: Apr 2022 Posts: 506	Good time to buy NVDA shares or hold off for now?

09-01-2022, 06:58 AM	#3814
JMarchand1981 Member Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 34,438	My take on NVDA. You guys know I love NVDA. I am stealing my own work from 1 am this morning here, so bear with me. $7B the approx. $27B in NVDAs revenue came from china. NVDA closing price was $150.xx. The drop should be about 25% since that is approximately the revenue percentage. It isn't linear but it's generally pretty close. Should drop to about $112 or so.

09-01-2022, 07:43 AM	#3815
finfangfan Member Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 11,849	It’s inching back up a bit premarket (currently $144 at 8:40) so will be interesting to see how this swings today. But I’m leaning toward adding a bit more here.

09-01-2022, 08:52 AM	#3816
finfangfan Member Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 11,849	Dipping below $140 now… I have $1500 freed up for this and just nibbled one share.

09-01-2022, 01:29 PM	#3818
NCtheBBcradle Member Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 298	Dumped my NVDA this morning at 140 and started to 2nd-guess...then watched it just keep going. Good company, the fed news is a tough pill. Got out of a couple other positions too, holding on others.

09-02-2022, 08:05 AM	#3821
JMarchand1981 Member Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 34,438	I won't get into the numbers but the jobs report was solid. Market is green but that is fools gold. This jobs report just gives the green light for The Fed to increase rates. Trade this report. I wouldn't be opening to many big positions based on it. This is just my take. Definitely do what you feel, but i think a month from now the market (my benchmark is the S&P) will be lower than it is today.